scholarly journals Contrasts between Urban and Rural Climate in CCSM4 CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1390-1412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Oleson

A new parameterization of urban areas in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) allows for simulation of temperature in cities where most of the global population lives. CCSM4 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5] are analyzed to examine how urban and rural areas might respond differently to changes in climate. The urban heat island (UHI), defined as the urban minus rural air temperature, is used as a metric. The average UHI at the end of the twenty-first century is similar to present day in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, but decreases in RCP8.5. Both the daytime and nocturnal UHIs decrease in RCP8.5, but the decrease in the daytime UHI is larger and more uniform across regions and seasons than in the nocturnal UHI. This is caused by changes in evaporation that warm the rural surface more than the urban. There is significant spatial and seasonal variability in the response of the nocturnal UHI caused mainly by changes in the rural surface. In Europe, the response to climate change of rural leaf–stem area in summer and clouds and rural soil moisture in winter explains the majority of this variability. Climate change increases the number of warm nights in urban areas substantially more than in rural areas. These results provide evidence that urban and rural areas respond differently to climate change. Thus, the unique aspects of the urban environment should be considered when making climate change projections, particularly since the global population is becoming increasingly urbanized.

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8923-8938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Shaowu Wang ◽  
Qingxiang Li ◽  
Philip D. Jones

Abstract The extent to which an urbanization effect has contributed to climate warming is under debate in China. Some previous studies have shown that the urban heat island (UHI) contribution to national warming was substantial (10%–40%). However, by considering the spatial scale of urbanization effects, this study indicates that the UHI contribution is negligible (less than 1%). Urban areas constitute only 0.7% of the whole of China. According to the proportions of urban and rural areas used in this study, the weighted urban and rural temperature averages reduced the estimated total warming trend and also reduced the estimated urban effects. Conversely, if all stations were arithmetically averaged, that is, without weighting, the total warming trend and urban effects will be overestimated as in previous studies because there are more urban stations than rural stations in China. Moreover, the urban station proportion (68%) is much higher than the urban area proportion (0.7%).


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Mpumelelo Dolo

Water is regarded as the most important substance found on earth. There is no substitute for it. The daily running of production businesses, industrial firms and agricultural production that help sustain the economy of countries are largely dependent on the availability of water for them to function. The importance of water cannot be over emphasised. The food which is consumed daily depends on water; it can therefore be safely concluded that without water there would be no food, and without food there would be no life. Despite the importance of water in relation to human life, animals and plants, research studies show that the its availability becoming increasingly deficient around the globe. Water levels of major dams and rivers around the world are dropping, limiting the supply of potable water to those dependent on them. Global warming is one factor that is influencing the dropping of water levels, through evaporation. Other factors include climate change, drought and population growth. In South Africa, the government has been fighting a continuous battle of trying to address the backlog of water infrastructure, particularly in the areas which were disadvantaged by the apartheid government. These areas include rural areas, small towns (semi-urban) and townships. The Eastern Cape province in South Africa is top of the list from a backlog point of view. Rural dwellers migrate to urban areas for various reasons such as better education, better health care, job opportunities and more efficient services. Water supply is one of the services which is more adequately supplied in the cities compared to the rural areas. Even though the supplied water in the urban areas of the Eastern Cape is not the best standard when compared to other cities around the country or the world, it is still at an acceptable standard. Thus, this study was conducted to seek ways of improving the supply of water in the urban and rural areas of the Eastern Cape. The availability and the quality of water differs between the urban and rural areas. The purpose of this study was to seek ways of bridging the gap between these areas while improving the standard of water supply in both rural and urban areas. While working towards improving the lives of the Eastern Cape people, the study also seeks to promote water preservation and awareness to the people of the province. In order to find better alternatives which have been tested in various places around the world, an in-depth literature review was conducted in the study. This functioned as an effective comparison of what is obtained in different places around the world and the context of this study, which is the Eastern Cape. A survey method was used to gather data regarding the problems surrounding water supply and options that could be adopted to remedy those problems. The survey was conducted in the form of a self-observation assessment, questionnaire for households in urban and rural areas and interview sessions with prominent government entities and local technical service providers. The survey covered the whole spectrum of individuals and groups that play a major role in the supply and usage of water. The study was conducted within three municipalities of the Eastern Cape. These municipalities cover approximately two-third of the Eastern Cape considering the size of population in those areas. The municipalities covered by the study were: Amathole District Municipality (ADM), Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality (BCMM) and OR Tambo District Municipality (ORTDM). The findings from the study showed that indeed the standard of water supply between urban and rural areas was not equal. This relates to the purification methods, the convenience of collecting water by users, the quality of infrastructure being constructed (due to good or poor monitoring during construction) and the quality of the water as well as operation and maintenance response from the various service providers. Moreover, it was found that there was an acceptable level of awareness by citizens when it comes to using water, and precautions to save it were being taken by some. However, some dominant factors such as poor management, poor infrastructure resulting in leaks, climate change, run-offs and population growth were putting a strain on the existing water resources which is not coping with the increasing demand by people. Recommendations made in the study to balance the supply of water in rural areas and urban areas include: improving the purification of water so as to achieve a standard quality within the Eastern Cape; that rural areas be allowed to have an option of having yard or house connections, particularly those who are willing to pay rates at a scale suiting their class or standard; and that water service providers make it their responsibility to extend reticulation networks if there is expansion or development of more houses in rural areas in order to keep the distance minimal to standpipes


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Schlögl ◽  
Nico Bader ◽  
Julien Gérard Anet ◽  
Martin Frey ◽  
Curdin Spirig ◽  
...  

<p>Today, more than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas and the proportion is projected to increase further in the near future. The increased number of heatwaves worldwide caused by the anthropogenic climate change may lead to heat stress and significant economic and ecological damages. Therefore, the growth of urban areas in combination with climate change can increase future mortality rates in cities, given that cities are more vulnerable to heatwaves due to the greater heat storage capacity of artificial surfaces towards higher longwave radiation fluxes.</p><p>To detect urban heat islands and resolve the micro-scale air temperature field in an urban environment, a low-cost air temperature network, including 450 sensors, was installed in the Swiss cities of Zurich and Basel in 2019 and 2020. These air temperature data, complemented with further official measurement stations, force a statistical air temperature downscaling model for urban environments, which is used operationally to calculate hourly micro-scale air temperatures in 10 m horizontal resolution. In addition to air temperature measurements from the low-cost sensor network, the model is further forced by albedo, NDVI, and NDBI values generated from the polar-orbiting satellite Sentinel-2, land surface temperatures estimated from Landsat-8, and high-resolution digital surface and elevation models.</p><p>Urban heat islands (UHI) are processed averaging hourly air temperatures over an entire year for each grid point, and comparing this average to the overall average in rural areas. UHI effects can then be correlated to high-resolution local climate zone maps and other local factors.</p><p>Between 60-80 % of the urban area is modeled with an accuracy below 1 K for an hourly time step indicating that the approach may work well in different cities. However, the outcome may depend on the complexity of the cities. The model error decreases rapidly by increasing the number of spatially distributed sensor data used to train the model, from 0 to 70 sensors, and then plateaus with further increases. An accuracy below 1 K can be expected for more than 50 air temperature measurements within the investigated cities and the surrounding rural areas. </p><p>A strong statistical air temperature model coupled with atmospheric boundary layer models (e.g. PALM-4U, MUKLIMO, FITNAH) will aid to generate highly resolved urban heat island prediction maps that help decision-makers to identify local heat islands easier. This will ensure that financial resources will be invested as efficiently as possible in mitigation actions.</p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (8) ◽  
pp. 1567-1576 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. CHENG ◽  
M. Y. XIE ◽  
K. F. ZHAO ◽  
J. J. WU ◽  
Z. W. XU ◽  
...  

SUMMARYBacillary dysentery continues to be a major health issue in developing countries and ambient temperature is a possible environmental determinant. However, evidence about the risk of bacillary dysentery attributable to ambient temperature under climate change scenarios is scarce. We examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China during 2006–2012 and projected its shifting pattern under climate change scenarios using a distributed lag non-linear model. The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the temperature rise above a threshold (18·4 °C), and the temperature effects appeared to be acute. The proportion of bacillary dysentery attributable to hot temperatures was 18·74% (95 empirical confidence interval (eCI): 8·36–27·44%). Apparent difference of AF was observed between urban and rural areas, with AF varying from 26·87% (95% eCI 16·21–36·68%) in urban area to −1·90% (95 eCI −25·03 to 16·05%) in rural area. Under the climate change scenarios alone (1–4 °C rise), the AF from extreme hot temperatures (>31·2 °C) would rise greatly accompanied by the relatively stable AF from moderate hot temperatures (18·4–31·2 °C). If climate change proceeds, urban area may be more likely to suffer from rapidly increasing burden of disease from extreme hot temperatures in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1901-1925 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esther C. Brady ◽  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Jennifer E. Kay ◽  
Nan Rosenbloom

Abstract Results are presented from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) at the standard 1° resolution, the same resolution as the majority of the CCSM4 CMIP5 long-term simulations for the historical and future projection scenarios. The forcings and boundary conditions for this simulation follow the protocols of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, version 3 (PMIP3). Two additional CCSM4 CO2 sensitivity simulations, in which the concentrations are abruptly changed at the start of the simulation to the low 185 ppm LGM concentrations (LGMCO2) and to a quadrupling of the preindustrial concentration (4×CO2), are also analyzed. For the full LGM simulation, the estimated equilibrium cooling of the global mean annual surface temperature is 5.5°C with an estimated radiative forcing of −6.2 W m−2. The radiative forcing includes the effects of the reduced LGM greenhouse gases, ice sheets, continental distribution with sea level lowered by approximately 120 m from the present, and orbital parameters, but not changes to atmospheric aerosols or vegetation biogeography. The LGM simulation has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 3.1(±0.3)°C, comparable to the CCSM4 4×CO2 result. The LGMCO2 simulation shows a greater ECS of 4.2°C. Other responses found at the LGM in CCSM4 include a global precipitation rate decrease at a rate of ~2% °C−1, similar to climate change simulations in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4); a strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a shoaling of North Atlantic Deep Water and a filling of the deep basin up to sill depth with Antarctic Bottom Water; and an enhanced seasonal cycle accompanied by reduced ENSO variability in the eastern Pacific Ocean’s SSTs.


Author(s):  
Katarzyna Zatońska ◽  
Piotr Psikus ◽  
Alicja Basiak-Rasała ◽  
Zuzanna Stępnicka ◽  
Maria Wołyniec ◽  
...  

(1) Background: Alcohol is a leading risk factor of premature morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to investigate the patterns of alcohol consumption in the PURE Poland cohort study baseline. (2) Methods: A Polish cohort was enrolled in the baseline study in 2007–2010. The study group consisted of 2021 adult participants of urban and rural areas from the Lower Silesia voivodeship in Poland (747 men and 1274 women). (3) Results: In the overall study population, 67.3% were current drinkers, 10.3% were former drinkers, and 22.4% were abstainers. Current use of alcohol products was more prevalent in men (77.2%), people living in urban areas (73.0%), and people with a higher level of education (78.0%). The percentage of current drinkers decreased with increasing age (from 73.4% in 30- to 44-year-olds to 48.8% in participants aged 64 and more). The majority of participants (89.2%) declared a low level of alcohol intake. The chance of high level of intake of alcohol was four times higher in men than in women (OR 4.17; CI 1.64–10.6). The majority of participants (54.6%) declared most frequent consumption of low-alcohol drinks (beer, wine) and 21% declared most frequent consumption of spirits. Current drinkers had almost 1.5-fold higher odds of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) than never drinkers (OR 1.49, CI 1.03–2.17; OR 1.66, CI 1.27–2.18, respectively). Former drinkers had higher odds for hypertension and CVD than never drinkers (1.73, CI 1.05–2.85; OR 1.76, CI 1.22–2.53, respectively). (4) Conclusions: In our cohort study, we observed several socio-demographic factors differentiating the patterns of alcohol consumption. The preventive programs should focus predominantly on men, people aged <45 years, and those with a higher level of education.


The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth M. Johnson ◽  
Dante J. Scala

Abstract This study of the 2018 congressional midterms demonstrates how voting patterns and political attitudes vary across a spectrum of urban and rural areas in the United States. Rural America is no more a monolith than is urban America. The rural-urban gradient is better represented by a continuum than a dichotomy. This is evident in the voting results in 2018, just as it was in 2016. We found that the political tipping point lies beyond major metropolitan areas, in the suburban counties of smaller metropolitan areas. Democrats enjoyed even greater success in densely populated urban areas in 2018 than in 2016. Residents of these urban areas display distinctive and consistent social and political attitudes across a range of scales. At the other end of the continuum in remote rural areas, Republican candidates continued to command voter support despite the challenging national political environment. Voters in these rural regions expressed social and political attitudes diametrically opposed to their counterparts in large urban cores.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leni Kang ◽  
Juan Liang ◽  
Chunhua He ◽  
Lei Miao ◽  
Xiaohong Li ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Breastfeeding is important for the physical and psychological health of the mother and child. Basic data on breastfeeding practice in China are out-of-date and vary widely. This study aimed to evaluate the progress of breastfeeding practice in China, as well as to explore the bottlenecks in driving better practice. Methods This was an observational study. We used data from the Under-5 Child Nutrition and Health Surveillance System in China for the period 2013–2018. The prevalence of early initiation of breastfeeding (EIBF) and exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) were calculated for each year for subgroups of China. The Cochran-Armitage test was used to explore the time trends. The annual percent of change (APC) were calculated by log-linear regression followed by exp transformation. Results The prevalence of EIBF increased significantly from 44.57% (95% CI: 44.07, 45.07) in 2013 to 55.84% (95% CI: 55.29, 56.38) in 2018 (Ptrend < 0.001), with an APC of 4.67% (95% CI: 3.51, 5.85). And the prevalence of EBF increased rapidly from 16.14% (95% CI: 15.10, 17.18) to 34.90% (95% CI: 33.54, 36.26) (Ptrend < 0.001), with an APC of 14.90% (95% CI: 9.97, 20.04). Increases were observed in both urban and rural areas, with urban areas showing greater APCs for EIBF (6.05%; 95% CI: 4.22, 7.92 v.s. 2.26%; 95% CI: 1.40, 3.12) and EBF (18.21%; 95% CI: 11.53, 25.29 v.s. 9.43%; 95% CI: 5.52, 13.49). The highest EBF prevalence was observed in the East, but the Central area showed the highest APC. The prevalence of EBF decreased with increasing age within the first 6 months, especially after 3 months. Conclusion The prevalence of both EIBF and EBF in China are improving in recent years. The rural and West China could be the key areas in the future actions. More efforts should be made to protect and promote breastfeeding to achieve near- and long-term goals for child health.


Author(s):  
Chensong Lin ◽  
Longfeng Wu

Many empirical studies have shown evidence of multiple health benefits provided by green and blue spaces. Despite the importance of these spaces, investigations are scarce in details for blue spaces rather than green. Moreover, most research has focused on developed regions. A limited number of studies on blue spaces can be found in China with a focus on the city level. Outcomes have been mixed due to varying research scales, methodologies, and definitions. This study relies on a national-level social survey to explore how the self-rated health (SRH) of senior individuals is associated with local green and blue space availability in urban and rural areas. Results indicate that the coverage ratio of overall green spaces and waterbodies around a resident’s home have marginal effects on SRH status in both urban and rural areas. In urban areas, living close to a park can is marginally beneficial for older people’s health. Regarding different types of blue spaces, the presence of a major river (within 0.3–0.5 km) or coastline (within 1 km and 1–5 km) in the vicinity of home negatively affects SRH among the elderly in urban areas. Close proximity to lakes and other types of waterbodies with a water surface larger than 6.25 ha did not significantly influence SRH. These findings not only evaluate general health impacts of green/blue space development on senior populations across the county but inform decision makers concerning the health-promoting qualities and features of different green/blue spaces to better accommodate an aging population in the era of urbanization.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.


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