California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6238-6256 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. David Neelin ◽  
Baird Langenbrunner ◽  
Joyce E. Meyerson ◽  
Alex Hall ◽  
Neil Berg
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
California Coast ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the region anticipated to undergo increases in precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and regions of anticipated decrease in the subtropics. Evaluation of the large-scale model experiments for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests a greater degree of agreement on the sign of the winter (December–February) precipitation change than in the previous such intercomparison, indicating a greater portion of California falling within the increased precipitation zone. While the resolution of global models should not be relied on for accurate depiction of topographic rainfall distribution within California, the precipitation changes depend substantially on large-scale shifts in the storm tracks arriving at the coast. Significant precipitation increases in the region arriving at the California coast are associated with an eastward extension of the region of strong Pacific jet stream, which appears to be a robust feature of the large-scale simulated changes. This suggests that effects of this jet extension in steering storm tracks toward the California coast constitute an important factor that should be assessed for impacts on incoming storm properties for high-resolution regional model assessments.

Challenges in Constraining Future Change of Global Land Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
Kyung-Sook Yun ◽  
Arjun Babu ◽  
Young-Min Yang ◽  
Eui-Seok Chung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Mean

<p><span>The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models have showed substantial inter-model spread in estimating annual global-mean precipitation change per one-degree greenhouse-gas-induced warming (precipitation sensitivity), ranging from -4.5</span><span>–4.2</span><span>%</span><sup><span>o</span></sup><span>C<sup>-1</sup>in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, the lowest emission scenario, to 0.2–4.0</span><span>%</span><sup><span>o</span></sup><span>C<sup>-1</sup>in the RCP 8.5, the highest emission scenario. The observed-based estimations in the global-mean land precipitation sensitivity during last few decades even show much larger spread due to the considerable natural interdecadal variability, role of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, and uncertainties in observation. This study tackles to better quantify and constrain global land precipitation change in response to global warming by analyzing the new range of Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios in the </span><span>Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) compared with RCP scenarios in the CMIP5. We show that the range of projected change in annual global-mean land (ocean) precipitation by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup>century relative to the recent past (1995-2014) in the 23 CMIP6 models is over 50% (20%) larger than that in corresponding scenarios of the 40 CMIP5 models. The estimated ranges of precipitation sensitivity in four Tier-1 SSPs are also larger than those in corresponding CMIP5 RCPs. The large increase in projected precipitation change in the highest quartile over ocean is mainly due to the increased number of high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) models in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, but not over land due to different response of thermodynamic moisture convergence and dynamic processes to global warming. We further discuss key challenges in constraining future precipitation change and source of uncertainties in land precipitation change.</span></p>

scholarly journals Representation of Southern Ocean Properties across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Generations: CMIP3 to CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (15) ◽  
pp. 6555-6581 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. Beadling ◽  
J. L. Russell ◽  
R. J. Stouffer ◽  
M. Mazloff ◽  
L. D. Talley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Observational Uncertainty ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractThe air–sea exchange of heat and carbon in the Southern Ocean (SO) plays an important role in mediating the climate state. The dominant role the SO plays in storing anthropogenic heat and carbon is a direct consequence of the unique and complex ocean circulation that exists there. Previous generations of climate models have struggled to accurately represent key SO properties and processes that influence the large-scale ocean circulation. This has resulted in low confidence ascribed to twenty-first-century projections of the state of the SO from previous generations of models. This analysis provides a detailed assessment of the ability of models contributed to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to represent important observationally based SO properties. Additionally, a comprehensive overview of CMIP6 performance relative to CMIP3 and CMIP5 is presented. CMIP6 models show improved performance in the surface wind stress forcing, simulating stronger and less equatorward-biased wind fields, translating into an improved representation of the Ekman upwelling over the Drake Passage latitudes. An increased number of models simulate an Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport within observational uncertainty relative to previous generations; however, several models exhibit extremely weak transports. Generally, the upper SO remains biased warm and fresh relative to observations, and Antarctic sea ice extent remains poorly represented. While generational improvement is found in many metrics, persistent systematic biases are highlighted that should be a priority during model development. These biases need to be considered when interpreting projected trends or biogeochemical properties in this region.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Crop Water Need to 2071–95 Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Jamaica

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Curtis ◽  
Douglas W. Gamble ◽  
Jeff Popke
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract This study uses empirical models to examine the potential impact of climate change, based on a range of 100-yr phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) projections, on crop water need in Jamaica. As expected, crop water need increases with rising temperature and decreasing precipitation, especially in May–July. Comparing the temperature and precipitation impacts on crop water need indicates that the 25th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (moderate warming) yields a larger crop water deficit than the 75th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (wet winter and dry summer), but the 25th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (substantial drying) dominates the 75th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (extreme warming). Over the annual cycle, the warming contributes to larger crop water deficits from November to April, while the drying has a greater influence from May to October. All experiments decrease crop suitability, with the largest impact from March to August.

Distributions of Tropical Precipitation Cluster Power and Their Changes under Global Warming. Part II: Long-Term Time Dependence in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (20) ◽  
pp. 8045-8059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Quinn ◽  
J. David Neelin
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intense Storm ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Distributions of precipitation cluster power (latent heat release rate integrated over contiguous precipitating pixels) are examined in 1°–2°-resolution members of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model ensemble. These approximately reproduce the power-law range and large event cutoff seen in observations and the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at 0.25°–0.5° in Part I. Under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global warming scenario, the change in the probability of the most intense storm clusters appears in all models and is consistent with HiRAM output, increasing by up to an order of magnitude relative to historical climate. For the three models in the ensemble with continuous time series of high-resolution output, there is substantial variability on when these probability increases for the most powerful storm clusters become detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only after 2050. A similar analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP-II reanalysis and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Imager/Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) rain-rate retrievals in the recent observational record does not yield reliable evidence of trends in high power cluster probabilities at this time. However, the results suggest that maintaining a consistent set of overlapping satellite instrumentation with improvements to SSM/I–SSMIS rain-rate retrieval intercalibrations would be useful for detecting trends in this important tail behavior within the next couple of decades.

Changes in the Distribution of Rain Frequency and Intensity in Response to Global Warming*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (22) ◽  
pp. 8372-8383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angeline G. Pendergrass ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Rain Rates

Abstract Changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall are an important potential impact of climate change. Two modes of change, a shift and an increase, are applied to simulations of global warming with models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The response to CO2 doubling in the multimodel mean of CMIP5 daily rainfall is characterized by an increase of 1% K−1 at all rain rates and a shift to higher rain rates of 3.3% K−1. In addition to these increase and shift modes of change, some models also show a substantial increase in rainfall at the highest rain rates called the extreme mode of response to warming. In some models, this extreme mode can be shown to be associated with increases in grid-scale condensation or gridpoint storms.

scholarly journals Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 <i>midHolocene</i> simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1847-1872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris M. Brierley ◽  
Anni Zhao ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Pascale Braconnot ◽  
Charles J. R. Williams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Current Phase ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Late-Twenty-First-Century Tropical Cyclone Frequency in 13 Coupled Climate Models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9946-9959 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. J. Tory ◽  
S. S. Chand ◽  
J. L. McBride ◽  
H. Ye ◽  
R. A. Dare
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency under anthropogenic climate change are examined for 13 global models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using the Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) TC-detection method developed by the authors in earlier papers. The method detects large-scale conditions within which TCs form. It was developed and tuned in atmospheric reanalysis data and then applied without change to the climate models to ensure model and detector independence. Changes in TC frequency are determined by comparing TC detections in the CMIP5 historical runs (1970–2000) with high emission scenario (representative concentration pathway 8.5) future runs (2070–2100). A number of the models project increases in frequency of higher-latitude tropical cyclones in the late twenty-first century. Inspection reveals that these high-latitude systems were subtropical in origin and are thus eliminated from the analysis using an objective classification technique. TC detections in 8 of the 13 models reproduce observed TC formation numbers and geographic distributions reasonably well, with annual numbers within ±50% of observations. TC detections in the remaining five models are particularly low in number (10%–28% of observed). The eight models with a reasonable TC climatology all project decreases in global TC frequency varying between 7% and 28%. Large intermodel and interbasin variations in magnitude and sign are present, with the greatest variations in the Northern Hemisphere basins. These results are consistent with results from earlier-generation climate models and thus confirm the robustness of coupled model projections of globally reduced TC frequency.

Is 1.5 °C of global warming inevitable and if so, when?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Milinski ◽  
Erich Fischer ◽  
Piers Forster ◽  
John C. Fyfe ◽  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The Core ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
New Framework

&lt;p&gt;The likelihood of exceeding 1.5 &amp;#176;C of global warming relative to preindustrial depends on the warming observed so far, anthropogenic warming that may occur in the future, and the degree to which internal variability will either temporarily amplify or attenuate future anthropogenic warming. &amp;#160;Here, we introduce a new framework that estimates the likelihood of exceeding 1.5 &amp;#176;C of global warming wherein uncertainties in each one of these factors is explicitly accounted for.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this new framework, we estimate the historical warming, and its uncertainty, from preindustrial to present using the recently-minted HadCRUT5 dataset. Future anthropogenic warming is estimated using an energy balance model tuned to an assessed range of climate sensitivity and applied to each of the core emissions scenarios (i.e. SSPs) underlying the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Finally, we estimate the influence of internal variability using a large ensemble of initial condition simulations. On this basis, we find that the largest uncertainty in estimates of the likelihood of exceeding 1.5&amp;#176;C of global warming is due to model-to-model differences in estimates of future anthropogenic warming, followed by historical warming uncertainty, and then uncertainty due to internal variability.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Based on our analysis, we find that the earliest time for crossing 1.5 &amp;#176;C of global warming, here defined as the 5% likelihood, is approximately emissions-scenario independent. We define the 1.5 &amp;#176;C threshold without any overshoot: if a time series warms by more than 1.5 &amp;#176;C during any 20-year period before 2100, it is counted as having crossed 1.5 &amp;#176;C. In each considered scenario except SSP5-8.5, the 20-year average period that crosses the 1.5 &amp;#176;C threshold with a 5% likelihood is 2013 to 2032. On the other hand, the 50% likelihood does depend on the scenario, with the SSP5-8.5 crossing occurring in 2018 to 2037 and SSP1-1.9 crossing in 2022 to 2041. All scenarios except SSP1-1.9 have a likelihood close to 100% to cross 1.5 &amp;#176;C global warming before 2100. Even in SSP1-1.9, the scenario with the strongest emission reductions, there is a 71% likelihood to cross 1.5 &amp;#176;C by the end of this century. This implies that even in SSP1-1.9, the world may stay below 1.5 &amp;#176;C only if both climate sensitivity and historical warming are near the lower end of their respective distributions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;These estimates, with their associated uncertainties, may have major implications for policy decisions.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Simulating the mid-Holocene, last interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 1147-1169
Author(s):  
Qiong Zhang ◽  
Ellen Berntell ◽  
Josefine Axelsson ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Zixuan Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Earth Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. As global warming is proceeding due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves towards climate states that challenge adaptation. Past Earth system states are offering possible modelling systems for the global warming of the coming decades. These include the climate of the mid-Pliocene (∼ 3 Ma), the last interglacial (∼ 129–116 ka) and the mid-Holocene (∼ 6 ka). The simulations for these past warm periods are the key experiments in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a robust out-of-sample test bed of the climate models used to project future climate changes. Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the large-scale features from the simulations for the mid-Holocene, the last interglacial and the mid-Pliocene. Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show global temperature changes, large-scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming, global monsoons and the climate variability modes – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate responses during past warm periods, as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in past three warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the model's ability to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with the EC-Earth model.

scholarly journals Simulating the mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiong Zhang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Ellen Berntell ◽  
Josefine Axelsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Earth Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a strong out-of-sample test-bed of the climate models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. For the first time, the EC-Earth model contributes to the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, which is part of the current sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the results on the large-scale features from the completed production simulations for the three past warm periods (mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial, and mid-Pliocene). Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show the changes in global temperature, large scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming and global monsoons, as well as the climate variability modes (ENSO, PDO, AMO). The EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate responses during past warm periods as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in three past warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the ability of the model to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with EC-Earth model.

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