scholarly journals Intense Precipitation Events Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in Response to a Warmer Climate and Increased CO2

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 4642-4654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) under idealized forcing scenarios, including a uniformly warmer climate, with a special focus on landfalling storms. A new set of experiments designed within the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Hurricane Working Group allows disentangling the relative role of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide from that played by sea surface temperature (SST) in changing the amount of precipitation associated with TCs in a warmer world. Compared to the present-day simulation, an increase in TC precipitation was found under the scenarios involving SST increases. On the other hand, in a CO2-doubling-only scenario, the changes in TC rainfall are small and it was found that, on average, TC rainfall tends to decrease compared to the present-day climate. The results of this study highlight the contribution of landfalling TCs to the projected increase in the precipitation changes affecting the tropical coastal regions.

The Inland Maintenance and Reintensification of Tropical Storm Bill (2015) Part 1: Contributions of the Brown Ocean Effect

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryann A. Wakefield ◽  
Jeffrey B. Basara ◽  
J. Marshall Shepherd ◽  
Noah Brauer ◽  
Jason C. Furtado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Ocean Effect ◽  
Novel Approaches ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Water Vapor Budget

AbstractLandfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often decay rapidly due to a decrease in moisture and energy fluxes over land when compared to the ocean surface. Occasionally, however, these cyclones maintain intensity or reintensify over land. Post-landfall maintenance and intensification of TCs over land may be a result of fluxes of moisture and energy derived from anomalously wet soils. These soils act similarly to a warm sea surface, in a phenomenon coined the “Brown Ocean Effect.” Tropical Storm (TS) Bill (2015) made landfall over a region previously moistened by anomalously heavy rainfall and displayed periods of reintensification and maintenance over land. This study evaluates the role of the Brown Ocean Effect on the observed maintenance and intensification of TS Bill using a combination of existing and novel approaches, including the evaluation of precursor conditions at varying temporal scales and making use of composite backward trajectories. Comparisons were made to landfalling TCs with similar paths that did not undergo TC maintenance and/or intensification (TCMI) as well as to TS Erin (2007), a known TCMI case. We show that the antecedent environment prior to TS Bill was similar to other known TCMI cases, but drastically different from the non-TCMI cases analyzed in this study. Furthermore, we show that contributions of evapotranspiration to the overall water vapor budget were non-negligible prior to TCMI cases and that evapotranspiration along storm inflow was significantly (p<0.05) greater for TCMI cases than non-TCMI cases suggesting a potential upstream contribution from the land surface.

scholarly journals Intensification of tropical cyclones in the GFS model

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1407-1417 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Marín ◽  
D. J. Raymond ◽  
G. B. Raga
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Friction ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Gfs Model ◽  
Environmental Air ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Special forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model were used in this study to evaluate how the intensification process in a tropical cyclone is represented in this model. Several tropical cyclones that developed in 2005 were analyzed in terms of the storm-scale circulation rather than more traditional measures such as maximum wind or minimum central pressure. The primary balance governing the circulation in the planetary boundary layer is between the convergence of environmental vorticity, which tends to spin up the storm, and surface friction, which tends to spin it down. In addition, we employ recently developed ideas about the relationship between precipitation and the saturation fraction of the environment to understand the factors controlling mass, and hence vorticity convergence. The budget of moist entropy is central to this analysis. Two well-known governing factors for cyclone intensification emerge from this study; surface moist entropy fluxes, dependent in the model on sea surface temperature and cyclone-generated surface winds, and ventilation of the system by dry environmental air. Quantitative expressions for the role of these factors in cyclone intensification are presented in this paper.

scholarly journals Intensification of tropical cyclones in the GFS model

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 17803-17839
Author(s):  
J. C. Marín ◽  
D. J. Raymond ◽  
G. B. Raga
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Friction ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Gfs Model ◽  
Environmental Air ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Special forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model were used in this study to evaluate how the intensification process in a tropical cyclone is represented in this model. Several tropical cyclones that developed in 2005 were analyzed in terms of the storm-scale circulation rather than more traditional measures such as maximum wind or minimum central pressure. The primary balance governing the circulation in the planetary boundary layer is between the convergence of environmental vorticity, which tends to spin up the storm, and surface friction, which tends to spin it down. In addition, we employ recently developed ideas about the relationship between precipitation and the saturation fraction of the environment to understand the factors controlling mass, and hence vorticity convergence. The budget of moist entropy is central to this analysis. Two well-known governing factors for cyclone intensification emerge from this study; surface moist entropy fluxes, dependent in the model on sea surface temperature and cyclone-generated surface winds, and ventilation of the system by dry environmental air. Quantitative expressions for the role of these factors in cyclone intensification are presented in this paper.

scholarly journals Drivers of the Recent Tropical Expansion in the Southern Hemisphere: Changing SSTs or Ozone Depletion?

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (16) ◽  
pp. 6581-6586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darryn W. Waugh ◽  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion ◽  
Antarctic Ozone

Abstract Observational evidence indicates that the southern edge of the Hadley cell (HC) has shifted southward during austral summer in recent decades. However, there is no consensus on the cause of this shift, with several studies reaching opposite conclusions as to the relative role of changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and stratospheric ozone depletion in causing this shift. Here, the authors perform a meta-analysis of the extant literature on this subject and quantitatively compare the results of all published studies that have used single-forcing model integrations to isolate the role of different factors on the HC expansion during austral summer. It is shown that the weight of the evidence clearly points to stratospheric ozone depletion as the dominant driver of the tropical summertime expansion over the period in which an ozone hole was formed (1979 to late 1990s), although SST trends have contributed to trends since then. Studies that have claimed SSTs as the major driver of tropical expansion since 1979 have used prescribed ozone fields that underrepresent the observed Antarctic ozone depletion.

scholarly journals Gulf Stream and ENSO Increase the Temperature Sensitivity of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1523-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Moore ◽  
A. Grinsted ◽  
S. Jevrejeva
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Large Space ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Phase Lags ◽  
Natural Cycles

Abstract Controversy exists over the role of the recent rise in sea surface temperatures (SST) and the frequency of tropical cyclones or hurricanes. Here, 135 yr of observational records are used to demonstrate how sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and cyclone numbers are linked. A novel wavelet-lag coherence method is used to study cause and effect relations over a large space of time scales, phase lags, and periods. It is found that SST and cyclones are not merely correlated, but are in a negative feedback loop, where rising SST causes increased numbers of cyclones, which reduce SST. This is statistically most significant at decadal and not at longer periods, which is contrary to expectations if long-period natural cycles are important in driving cyclone numbers. Spatial relationships are examined using phase-aware teleconnections, which at the dominant decadal period show the in-phase behavior of the Atlantic SST in the Gulf Stream region, reflecting the role of the transportion of heat northward from the tropical Atlantic. At 5-yr periods there is significant coherence when SST leads cyclones by 2 yr, and this is associated with tropical ENSO activity such that, as predicted, increasing numbers of El Niños cause fewer Atlantic cyclones. The pattern of coherence existing since 1970 strongly favors the decadal coherence band, and despite growing coherence at higher frequencies, there is none at the 5-yr band, perhaps explaining why the observed sensitivity between SST and cyclones is larger than that from general circulation model (GCM) predictions and becoming greater.

scholarly journals Observed Shear-Relative Rainfall Asymmetries Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Xiang Wang ◽  
Haiyan Jiang ◽  
Xun Li ◽  
Jun A. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Northern Indian Ocean ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Perturbation Energy ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Upper Level

This study examines the shear-relative rainfall spatial distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) during landfall based on the 19-year (1998–2016) TRMM satellite 3B42 rainfall estimate dataset and investigates the role of upper-tropospheric troughs on the rainfall intensity and distribution after TCs make a landfall over the six basins of Atlantic (ATL), eastern and central Pacific (EPA), northwestern Pacific (NWP), northern Indian Ocean (NIO), southern Indian Ocean (SIO), and South Pacific (SPA). The results show that the wavenumber 1 perturbation can contribute ∼ 50% of the total perturbation energy of total TC rainfall. Wavenumber 1 rainfall asymmetry presents the downshear-left maxima in the deep-layer vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa for all the six basins prior to making a landfall. In general, wavenumber 1 rainfall tends to decrease less if there is an interaction between TCs and upper-level troughs located at the upstream of TCs over land. The maximum TC rain rate distributions tend to be located at the downshear-left (downshear) quadrant under the high (low)-potential vorticity conditions.

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