scholarly journals Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression*

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Wenzel ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Edwin P. Gerber ◽  
Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Process Oriented

Abstract Stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases are anticipated to have a large impact on the Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation, shifting the jet stream and associated storm tracks. Models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project poorly simulate the austral jet, with a mean equatorward bias and 10° latitude spread in their historical climatologies, and project a wide range of future trends in response to anthropogenic forcing in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here, the question is addressed whether the unweighted multimodel mean (uMMM) austral jet projection of the RCP4.5 scenario can be improved by applying a process-oriented multiple diagnostic ensemble regression (MDER). MDER links future projections of the jet position to processes relevant to its simulation under present-day conditions. MDER is first targeted to constrain near-term (2015–34) projections of the austral jet position and selects the historical jet position as the most important of 20 diagnostics. The method essentially recognizes the equatorward bias in the past jet position and provides a bias correction of about 1.5° latitude southward to future projections. When the target horizon is extended to midcentury (2040–59), the method also recognizes that lower-stratospheric temperature trends over Antarctica, a proxy for the intensity of ozone depletion, provide additional information that can be used to reduce uncertainty in the ensemble mean projection. MDER does not substantially alter the uMMM long-term position in jet position but reduces the uncertainty in the ensemble mean projection. This result suggests that accurate observational constraints on upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric temperature trends are needed to constrain projections of the austral jet position.

Quantifying the Summertime Response of the Austral Jet Stream and Hadley Cell to Stratospheric Ozone and Greenhouse Gases

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5538-5559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin P. Gerber ◽  
Seok-Woo Son
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of anthropogenic forcing on the summertime austral circulation is assessed across three climate model datasets: the Chemistry–Climate Model Validation activity 2 and phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in stratospheric ozone and greenhouse gases impact the Southern Hemisphere in this season, and a simple framework based on temperature trends in the lower polar stratosphere and upper tropical troposphere is developed to separate their effects. It suggests that shifts in the jet stream and Hadley cell are driven by changes in the upper-troposphere–lower-stratosphere temperature gradient. The mean response is comparable in the three datasets; ozone has chiefly caused the poleward shift observed in recent decades, while ozone and greenhouse gases largely offset each other in the future. The multimodel mean perspective, however, masks considerable spread in individual models’ circulation projections. Spread resulting from differences in temperature trends is separated from differences in the circulation response to a given temperature change; both contribute equally to uncertainty in future circulation trends. Spread in temperature trends is most associated with differences in polar stratospheric temperatures, and could be narrowed by reducing uncertainty in future ozone changes. Differences in tropical temperatures are also important, and arise from both uncertainty in future emissions and differences in models’ climate sensitivity. Differences in climate sensitivity, however, only matter significantly in a high emissions future. Even if temperature trends were known, however, differences in the dynamical response to temperature changes must be addressed to substantially narrow spread in circulation projections.

scholarly journals Ozone and temperature decadal trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere, based on measurements from SABER on TIMED

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (8) ◽  
pp. 935-949 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. T. Huang ◽  
H. G. Mayr ◽  
J. M. Russell ◽  
M. G. Mlynczak
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Definitive Evidence ◽  
Broadband Emission ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Ozone Trend ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We have derived ozone and temperature trends from years 2002 through 2012, from 20 to 100 km altitude, and 48° S to 48° N latitude, based on measurements from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. For the first time, trends of ozone and temperature measured at the same times and locations are obtained, and their correlations should provide useful information about the relative importance of photochemistry versus dynamics over the longer term. We are not aware of comparable results covering this time period and spatial extent. For stratospheric ozone, until the late 1990s, previous studies found negative trends (decreasing amounts). In recent years, some empirical and modeling studies have shown the occurrence of a turnaround in the decreasing ozone, possibly beginning in the late 1990s, suggesting that the stratospheric ozone trend is leveling off or even turning positive. Our global results add more definitive evidence, expand the coverage, and show that at mid-latitudes (north and south) in the stratosphere, the ozone trends are indeed positive, with ozone having increased by a few percent from 2002 through 2012. However, in the tropics, we find negative ozone trends between 25 and 50 km. For stratospheric temperatures, the trends are mostly negatively correlated to the ozone trends. The temperature trends are positive in the tropics between 30 and 40 km, and between 20 and 25 km, at approximately 24° N and at 24° S latitude. The stratospheric temperature trends are otherwise mostly negative. In the mesosphere, the ozone trends are mostly flat, with suggestions of small positive trends at lower latitudes. The temperature trends in this region are mostly negative, showing decreases of up to ~ −3 K decade−1. In the lower thermosphere (between ~ 85 and 100 km), ozone and temperature trends are both negative. The ozone trend can approach ~ −10% decade−1, and the temperature trend can approach ~ −3 K decade−1. Aside from trends, these patterns of ozone–temperature correlations are consistent with previous studies of ozone and temperature perturbations such as the quasi-biennial (QBO) and semiannual (SAO) oscillations, and add confidence to the results.

scholarly journals Seasonal stratospheric ozone trends over 2000–2018 derived from several merged data sets

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 7035-7047 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika E. Szeląg ◽  
Viktoria F. Sofieva ◽  
Doug Degenstein ◽  
Chris Roth ◽  
Sean Davis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Opposite Pattern ◽  
The North ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Seasonal Dependence

Abstract. In this work, we analyze the seasonal dependence of ozone trends in the stratosphere using four long-term merged data sets, SAGE-CCI-OMPS, SAGE-OSIRIS-OMPS, GOZCARDS, and SWOOSH, which provide more than 30 years of monthly zonal mean ozone profiles in the stratosphere. We focus here on trends between 2000 and 2018. All data sets show similar results, although some discrepancies are observed. In the upper stratosphere, the trends are positive throughout all seasons and the majority of latitudes. The largest upper-stratospheric ozone trends are observed during local winter (up to 6 % per decade) and equinox (up to 3 % per decade) at mid-latitudes. In the equatorial region, we find a very strong seasonal dependence of ozone trends at all altitudes: the trends vary from positive to negative, with the sign of transition depending on altitude and season. The trends are negative in the upper-stratospheric winter (−1 % per decade to −2 % per decade) and in the lower-stratospheric spring (−2 % per decade to −4 % per decade), but positive (2 % per decade to 3 % per decade) at 30–35 km in spring, while the opposite pattern is observed in summer. The tropical trends below 25 km are negative and maximize during summer (up to −2 % per decade) and spring (up to −3 % per decade). In the lower mid-latitude stratosphere, our analysis points to a hemispheric asymmetry: during local summers and equinoxes, positive trends are observed in the south (+1 % per decade to +2 % per decade), while negative trends are observed in the north (−1 % per decade to −2 % per decade). We compare the seasonal dependence of ozone trends with available analyses of the seasonal dependence of stratospheric temperature trends. We find that ozone and temperature trends show positive correlation in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere and negative correlation above 30 km, where photochemistry dominates. Seasonal trend analysis gives information beyond that contained in annual mean trends, which can be helpful in order to better understand the role of dynamical variability in short-term trends and future ozone recovery predictions.

Twenty-First-Century Snowfall and Snowpack Changes over the Southern California Mountains

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengpeng Sun ◽  
Alex Hall ◽  
Marla Schwartz ◽  
Daniel B. Walton ◽  
Neil Berg
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Future snowfall and snowpack changes over the mountains of Southern California are projected using a new hybrid dynamical–statistical framework. Output from all general circulation models (GCMs) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive is downscaled to 2-km resolution over the region. Variables pertaining to snow are analyzed for the middle (2041–60) and end (2081–2100) of the twenty-first century under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP8.5 (business as usual) and RCP2.6 (mitigation). These four sets of projections are compared with a baseline reconstruction of climate from 1981 to 2000. For both future time slices and scenarios, ensemble-mean total winter snowfall loss is widespread. By the mid-twenty-first century under RCP8.5, ensemble-mean winter snowfall is about 70% of baseline, whereas the corresponding value for RCP2.6 is somewhat higher (about 80% of baseline). By the end of the century, however, the two scenarios diverge significantly. Under RCP8.5, snowfall sees a dramatic further decline; 2081–2100 totals are only about half of baseline totals. Under RCP2.6, only a negligible further reduction from midcentury snowfall totals is seen. Because of the spread in the GCM climate projections, these figures are all associated with large intermodel uncertainty. Snowpack on the ground, as represented by 1 April snow water equivalent is also assessed. Because of enhanced snowmelt, the loss seen in snowpack is generally 50% greater than that seen in winter snowfall. By midcentury under RCP8.5, warming-accelerated spring snowmelt leads to snow-free dates that are about 1–3 weeks earlier than in the baseline period.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Temperature Trends over 1979–2015 Derived from Combined SSU, MLS, and SABER Satellite Observations

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (13) ◽  
pp. 4843-4859 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Randel ◽  
Anne K. Smith ◽  
Fei Wu ◽  
Cheng-Zhi Zou ◽  
Haifeng Qian
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Weighting Functions ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Data Record ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Temperature trends in the middle and upper stratosphere are evaluated using measurements from the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), combined with data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments. Data from MLS and SABER are vertically integrated to approximate the SSU weighting functions and combined with SSU to provide a data record spanning 1979–2015. Vertical integrals are calculated using empirically derived Gaussian weighting functions, which provide improved agreement with high-latitude SSU measurements compared to previously derived weighting functions. These merged SSU data are used to evaluate decadal-scale trends, solar cycle variations, and volcanic effects from the lower to the upper stratosphere. Episodic warming is observed following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mt. Pinatubo (1991), focused in the tropics in the lower stratosphere and in high latitudes in the middle and upper stratosphere. Solar cycle variations are centered in the tropics, increasing in amplitude from the lower to the upper stratosphere. Linear trends over 1979–2015 show that cooling increases with altitude from the lower stratosphere (from ~−0.1 to −0.2 K decade−1) to the middle and upper stratosphere (from ~−0.5 to −0.6 K decade−1). Cooling in the middle and upper stratosphere is relatively uniform in latitudes north of about 30°S, but trends decrease to near zero over the Antarctic. Mid- and upper-stratospheric temperatures show larger cooling over the first half of the data record (1979–97) compared to the second half (1998–2015), reflecting differences in upper-stratospheric ozone trends between these periods.

scholarly journals Seasonal stratospheric ozone trends over 2000–2018 derived from several merged data sets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika E. Szeląg ◽  
Viktoria F. Sofieva ◽  
Doug Degenstein ◽  
Chris Roth ◽  
Sean Davis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Opposite Pattern ◽  
The North ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Seasonal Dependence

Abstract. In this work, we analyse the seasonal dependence of ozone trends in the stratosphere using four long-term merged datasets: SAGE-CCI-OMPS, SAGE-OSIRIS-OMPS, GOZCARDS and SWOOSH which provide more than 30 years of monthly zonal mean ozone profiles in the stratosphere. We focus here on trends between 2000 and 2018. All datasets show similar results, although some discrepancies are observed. In the upper stratosphere, the trends are positive throughout all seasons and the majority of latitudes. The largest upper stratospheric ozone trends are observed during local winter (up to 6 % dec−1) and equinox (up to 3 % dec−1) at mid-latitudes. In the equatorial region, we find a very strong seasonal dependence of ozone trends at all altitudes: the trends vary from positive to negative, with the sign of transition depending on altitude and season. The trends are negative in the upper stratospheric winter (−1 to −2 % dec−1) and in the lower stratospheric spring (−2 to −4 % dec−1), but positive (2–3 % dec−1) at 30–35 km in spring, while the opposite pattern is observed in summer. The tropical trends below 25 km are negative and maximize during summer (up to −2 % dec−1) and spring (up to −3 % dec−1). In the lower mid-latitude stratosphere, our analysis indicates hemispheric asymmetry: during local summers and equinoxes, positive trends are observed in the South (+1 to +2 % dec−1) while negative trends are observed in the North (−1 to −2 % dec−1). We compare the seasonal dependence of ozone trends with available analyses of the seasonal dependence of stratospheric temperature trends. We find that ozone and temperature trends show positive correlation in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere, and negative correlation above 30 km, where photochemistry dominates. Seasonal trend analysis gives information beyond that contained in annual mean trends, which can be helpful in order to better understand the role of dynamical variability in short-term trends and future ozone recovery predictions.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends

Nature ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 491 (7426) ◽  
pp. 692-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Dian J. Seidel ◽  
William J. Randel ◽  
Cheng-Zhi Zou ◽  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends

scholarly journals The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Solar Variability ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate model simulations to fully capture the atmospheric response to solar variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the solar-ozone response (SOR) during the 11 year solar cycle amongst different chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry. We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the WCRP/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with three ozone databases: the Bodeker Scientific database, the SPARC/AC&C database for CMIP5, and the SPARC/CCMI database for CMIP6. The results reveal substantial differences in the representation of the SOR between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. The peak amplitude of theSOR in the upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases from 5 % to 2 % between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 databases. This difference is because the CMIP5 database was constructed from a regression model fit to satellite observations, whereas the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations, which use a spectral solar irradiance (SSI) dataset with relatively weak UV forcing. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database is therefore implicitly more similar to the SOR in the CCMI-1 models than to the CMIP5 ozone database, which shows a greater resemblance in amplitude and structure to the SOR in the Bodeker database. The latitudinal structure of the annual mean SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows strong gradients in the SOR across the midlatitudes owing to the paucity of observations at high latitudes. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and in the CCMI-1 models show a strong seasonal dependence, including large meridional gradients at mid to high latitudes during winter; such seasonal variations in the SOR are not included in the CMIP5 ozone database. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the impact of changes in the representation of the SOR and SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The experiments show that the smaller amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database compared to CMIP5 causes a decrease in the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response over the solar cycle of up to 0.6 K, or around 50 % of the total amplitude. The changes in the SOR explain most of the difference in the amplitude of the tropical stratospheric temperature response in the case with combined changes in SOR and SSI between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasise the importance of adequately representing the SOR in climate models to capture the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, CMIP6 models without chemistry are encouraged to use the CMIP6 ozone database to capture the climate impacts of solar variability.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the tropical stratospheric ozone response to the solar rotational cycle in observations and chemistry-climate model simulations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Marion Marchand ◽  
Slimane Bekki ◽  
Sébastien Bossay ◽  
Franck Lefèvre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Spectral Irradiance ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Solar Spectral Irradiance ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Ozone Sensitivity ◽  
Ensemble Mean

Abstract. The tropical stratospheric ozone response to solar UV variations associated with the rotational cycle (~ 27 days) is analysed using MLS satellite observations and numerical simulations from the LMDz-Reprobus chemistry-climate model. The model is used in two configurations, as a chemistry-transport model (CTM) where dynamics are nudged toward ERA-Interim reanalysis and as a chemistry-climate model (free-running) (CCM). An ensemble of five 17 year simulations (1991–2007) is performed with the CCM. All simulations are forced by reconstructed time-varying solar spectral irradiance from the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance model. We first examine the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle during two 3 year periods which correspond to the declining phases of solar cycle 22 (10/1991–09/1994) and solar cycle 23 (09/200408/2007) when the satellite ozone observations of the two Microwave Limb Sounders (MLS-UARS and MLS-Aura) are available. In the observations, during the first period, ozone and UV flux are found to be correlated between about 10 and 1 hPa with a maximum of 0.29 at ~ 5 hPa; the ozone sensitivity (% change in ozone for 1 % change in UV) peaks at ~ 0.4. Correlation during the second period is weaker and has a peak ozone sensitivity of only 0.2, possibly due to the fact that the solar forcing is weaker during that period. The CTM simulation reproduces most of these observed features, including the differences between the two periods. The CCM ensemble mean results comparatively show much smaller differences between the two periods, suggesting that the amplitude of the rotational ozone signal estimated from MLS observations or the CTM simulation is strongly influenced by other (non-solar) sources of variability, notably dynamics. The analysis of the ensemble of CCM simulations shows that the estimation of the ensemble mean ozone sensitivity does not vary significantly neither with the amplitude of the solar rotational fluctuations, nor with the size of the time window used for the ozone sensitivity retrieval. In contrast, the uncertainty of the ozone sensitivity estimate significantly increases during periods of decreasing amplitude of solar rotational fluctuations (also coinciding with minimum phases of the solar cycle), and for decreasing size of the time window analysis. We found that a minimum of 3 year and 10 year time window is needed for the 1σ uncertainty to drop below 50 % and 20 %, respectively. These uncertainty sources may explain some of the discrepancies found in previous estimates of the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle.

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