scholarly journals Causes of ENSO Weakening during the Mid-Holocene

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (17) ◽  
pp. 7049-7070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiping Tian ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Dabang Jiang ◽  
Lin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Thermocline Feedback ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Project Phases ◽  
Mixed Layer Heat Budget ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms

The causes of the change in amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the mid-Holocene were investigated by diagnosing the model simulations that participated in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phases 2 and 3. Consistent with paleoclimate records, 20 out of the 28 models reproduced weaker-than-preindustrial ENSO amplitude during the mid-Holocene. Two representative models were then selected to explore the underlying mechanisms of air–sea feedback processes. A mixed layer heat budget diagnosis indicated that the weakened ENSO amplitude was primarily attributed to the decrease in the Bjerknes thermocline feedback, while the meridional advective feedback also played a role. During the mid-Holocene, the thermocline response to a unit anomalous zonal wind stress forcing in the equatorial Pacific weakened in both models because of the increased ENSO meridional scale. A further investigation revealed that the greater ENSO meridional width was caused by the strengthening of the Pacific subtropical cell, which was attributed to the enhanced mean trade wind that resulted from the intensified Asian and African monsoon rainfall and associated large-scale east–west circulation in response to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing.

scholarly journals Sustained Increases in Lower-Tropospheric Subsidence over the Central Tropical North Pacific Drive a Decline in High-Elevation Rainfall in Hawaii

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8743-8759 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan J. Longman ◽  
Henry F. Diaz ◽  
Thomas W. Giambelluca
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Changepoint Analysis

Abstract Consistent increases in the strength and frequency of occurrence of the trade wind inversion (TWI) are identified across a ~40-yr period (1973–2013) in Hawaii. Changepoint analysis indicates that a marked shift occurred in the early 1990s resulting in a 20% increase in the mean TWI frequency between the periods 1973–90 and 1991–2013, based on the average of changes at two sounding stations and two 6-month (dry and wet) seasons. Regional increases in the atmospheric subsidence are identified in four reanalysis datasets over the same ~40-yr time period. The post-1990 period mean for the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis shows increases in subsidence of 33% and 41% for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Good agreement was found between the time series of TWI frequency of occurrence and omega, suggesting that previously reported increases in the intensity of Hadley cell subsidence are driving the observed increases in TWI frequency. Correlations between omega and large-scale modes of internal climate variability such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) do not explain the abrupt shift in TWI frequency in the early 1990s in both seasons. Reported increases in TWI frequency of occurrence may provide some explanation for climate change–related precipitation change at high elevations in Hawaii. On average, post-1990 rainfall was 6% lower in the dry season and 31% lower in the wet season at nine high-elevation sites. Rainfall was significantly correlated with TWI frequency at all of the stations analyzed.

scholarly journals Late Holocene intensification of the westerly winds at the subantarctic Auckland Islands (51° S), New Zealand

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imogen M. Browne ◽  
Christopher M. Moy ◽  
Christina R. Riesselman ◽  
Helen L. Neil ◽  
Lorelei G. Curtin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Latitudinal Position ◽  
Paleoclimate Records

Abstract. The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHWW) play a major role in controlling wind-driven upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean on interannual to glacial-interglacial timescales. Despite their significance in the global carbon cycle, our understanding of millennial-scale changes in the strength and latitudinal position of the westerlies during the Holocene (especially since 5000 yr BP) is limited by a scarcity of paleoclimate records from comparable latitudes. Here, we reconstruct middle to late Holocene variability in the SHWW using a fjord sediment core collected from the subantarctic Auckland Islands (51° S, 166° E), located in the modern centre of the westerly wind belt. Drainage basin response to variability in the strength of the SHWW at this latitude is reconstructed from downcore variations in magnetic susceptibility (MS) and bulk organic δ13C and atomic C/N, which monitor influxes of lithogenous and terrestrial vs marine organic matter, respectively. The hydrographic response to SHWW variability is reconstructed using benthic foraminifer δ18O and δ13C, both of which are influenced by the isotopic composition of shelf water masses entering the fjord. Using these data, we provide marine and terrestrial-based evidence for increased wind strength from ~ 1600–900 yr BP at subantarctic latitudes that is broadly consistent with previous studies of vegetation response to climate at the Auckland Islands. Comparison with a SHWW reconstruction using similar proxies from Fiordland suggests a northward migration of the SHWW over New Zealand at the beginning of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Comparison with paleoclimate and paleoceanographic records from southern South America and the western Antarctic Peninsula indicates a late Holocene strengthening of the SHWW after ~ 1600 yr BP that appears to be broadly symmetrical across the Pacific basin, although our reconstruction suggests that this symmetry breaks down during the LIA. Contemporaneous increases in SHWW at localities either side of the Pacific in the late Holocene are likely controlled atmospheric teleconnections between the low and high latitudes and by variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Based on Quantile Regression and the Teleconnection with Large-Scale Climate Patterns

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. 4009-4025
Author(s):  
Shuyu Zhang ◽  
Thian Yew Gan ◽  
Andrew B. G. Bush
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Climate Patterns

AbstractUnder global warming, Arctic sea ice has declined significantly in recent decades, with years of extremely low sea ice occurring more frequently. Recent studies suggest that teleconnections with large-scale climate patterns could induce the observed extreme sea ice loss. In this study, a probabilistic analysis of Arctic sea ice was conducted using quantile regression analysis with covariates, including time and climate indices. From temporal trends at quantile levels from 0.01 to 0.99, Arctic sea ice shows statistically significant decreases over all quantile levels, although of different magnitudes at different quantiles. At the representative extreme quantile levels of the 5th and 95th percentiles, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) have more significant influence on Arctic sea ice than El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Positive AO as well as positive NAO contribute to low winter sea ice, and a positive PNA contributes to low summer Arctic sea ice. If, in addition to these conditions, there is concurrently positive AMO and PDO, the sea ice decrease is amplified. Teleconnections between Arctic sea ice and the climate patterns were demonstrated through a composite analysis of the climate variables. The anomalously strong anticyclonic circulation during the years of positive AO, NAO, and PNA promotes more sea ice export through Fram Strait, resulting in excessive sea ice loss. The probabilistic analyses of the teleconnections between the Arctic sea ice and climate patterns confirm the crucial role that the climate patterns and their combinations play in overall sea ice reduction, but particularly for the low and high quantiles of sea ice concentration.

scholarly journals Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Temperature Extremes

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 3872-3889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse Kenyon ◽  
Gabriele C. Hegerl
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Modes Of Climate Variability

Abstract The influence of large-scale modes of climate variability on worldwide summer and winter temperature extremes has been analyzed, namely, that of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific interdecadal climate variability. Monthly indexes for temperature extremes from worldwide land areas are used describe moderate extremes, such as the number of exceedences of the 90th and 10th climatological percentiles, and more extreme events such as the annual, most extreme temperature. This study examines which extremes show a statistically significant (5%) difference between the positive and negative phases of a circulation regime. Results show that temperature extremes are substantially affected by large-scale circulation patterns, and they show distinct regional patterns of response to modes of climate variability. The effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are seen throughout the world but most clearly around the Pacific Rim and throughout all of North America. Likewise, the influence of Pacific interdecadal variability is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere, especially around the Pacific region and North America, but it extends to the Southern Hemisphere. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a strong continent-wide effect for Eurasia, with a clear but weaker effect over North America. Modes of variability influence the shape of the daily temperature distribution beyond a simple shift, often affecting cold and warm extremes and sometimes daytime and nighttime temperatures differently. Therefore, for reliable attribution of changes in extremes as well as prediction of future changes, changes in modes of variability need to be accounted for.

scholarly journals Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere-ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Haegeli ◽  
Bret Shandro ◽  
Patrick Mair
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Winter Weather ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Avalanche Hazard ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Hazard Response

Abstract. Numerous large-scale atmosphere-ocean oscillations including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA) and the Artic Oscillation (AO) are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Several studies have examined the effect of these oscillations on avalanche hazard using long-term avalanche activity records from highway avalanche safety programs. While these studies offer valuable insights, they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the influence of these oscillations because the underlying data only represent the conditions at a few point locations in western Canada where avalanches are tightly managed. We present a new approach for gaining insight into the relationship between atmosphere-ocean oscillations and avalanche hazard in western Canada that uses avalanche problem information published in public avalanche bulletins during the winters of 2010 to 2019. For each avalanche problem type, we calculate seasonal prevalence values for each forecast area, elevation band and season, which are then included in a series of beta mixed-effects regression models to explore both the overall and regional effects of the Pacific-centered oscillations (PO; including ENSO, PDO, PNA) and AO on the nature of avalanche hazard in the study area. Even though our study period is short, we find significant negative effects of PO on the prevalence of Storm slab avalanche problems, Wind slab avalanche problems, and Dry loose avalanche problems, which agree reasonably well with the known impacts of PO on winter weather in western Canada. The analysis also reveals a positive relationship between AO and the prevalence of Deep persistent slab avalanche problems particularly in the Rocky Mountains. In addition, we also find several smaller-scale patterns that highlight that the avalanche hazard response to these oscillations varies regionally. Our study shows that the forecaster judgment included in the avalanche problem assessments adds considerable value for these types of climate analyses. Since the predictability of the most important atmosphere-ocean oscillations is continuously improving, a better understanding of their effect on avalanche hazard can contribute to the development of informative seasonal avalanche forecasts and a better understanding of the effect of climate change on avalanche hazard.

scholarly journals 300-years of hydrological records and societal responses to droughts and floods on the Pacific coast of Central America

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Guevara-Murua ◽  
Caroline A. Williams ◽  
Erica J. Hendy ◽  
Pablo Imbach
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Guatemala City ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Dry Conditions

Abstract. The management of hydrological extremes and impacts on society is inadequately understood because of the combination of short-term hydrological records, an equally short-term assessment of societal responses and the complex multi-directional relationships between the two over longer timescales. Rainfall seasonality and interannual variability on the Pacific coast of Central America is high due to the passage of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and large-scale phenomena El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we reconstruct hydrological variability and the associated impacts drawing on documentary sources from the cities of Santiago de Guatemala (now Antigua Guatemala) and Guatemala de la Asunción (now Guatemala City) over the period from 1640 to 1945. Near continuous records of city and municipal council meetings provide a rich source of information dating back to the beginning of Spanish colonisation in the 16thC. Beginning in 1640, we use almost continuous sources, including > 190 volumes of Actas de Cabildo and Actas Municipales (minutes of meetings of the city and municipal councils) held by the Archivo Histórico de la Municipalidad de Antigua Guatemala (AHMAG) and the Archivo General de Centro América (AGCA) in Guatemala City. For this 305-year period (with the exception of a total of 11 years where the books were either missing or damaged), information relating to Catholic rogation ceremonies and reports of flooding events and crop shortages, were used to classify the annual rainy season (May to October) on a 5 point scale from very wet to very dry. In total 12 years of very wet conditions, 25 years of wetter than usual conditions, 34 years of drier conditions and 21 years of very dry conditions were identified. An extended drier period from the 1640s to the 1740s was identified as well as two shorter periods (the 1820s and the 1840s) dominated by dry conditions. Wetter conditions dominated the 1760s–1810s, possibly coincident with reconstructions of more persistent La Niña conditions that are typically associated with higher precipitation over the Pacific Coast of Central America. The 1640s–1740s dry period coincides with the onset of the Little Ice Age and the associated southward displacement of the ITCZ.

Contributions from extratropical North Pacific to Arctic summer atmospheric temperature and circulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shengping He ◽  
Tore Furevik
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Anomalous Anticyclone ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Arctic Summer

<p>A fascinating character of the Arctic summer atmospheric circulation is the anomalous anticyclone circulation centered over the Arctic Ocean. Previous studies have related the underlying mechanisms to the atmospheric internal variability, the earlier spring Eurasian snowmelt, and the tropical Pacific forcing. Here we show that the Arctic summer anomalous anticyclone circulation is strongly associated with positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) at midlatitudes of the extratropical North Pacific which are surrounded by significant negative SSTAs, resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but without significant signals in the tropics. The numerical experiments from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, prescribed with negative PDO-like SSTAs from May to August with the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation being reduced in advance, have simulated the observed positive air temperature and geopotential height anomalies over the Arctic and the circumpolar easterly anomaly at high latitudes in summer. The observational and simulated results strongly suggest that the extratropical SSTAs can influence the Arctic atmospheric temperature and circulation in summer.</p>

scholarly journals Differences in Atmospheric Circulation between the Development of Weak and Strong Warm Events in the Southern Oscillation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2191-2209 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Stephens ◽  
Michael J. Meuleners ◽  
Harry van Loon ◽  
Malcolm H. Lamond ◽  
Nicola P. Telcik
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract In this study temporal and spatial aspects of El Niño (warm event) development are explored by comparing composite sequences of sea level pressure (SLP), surface wind, and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies leading into strong and weak events. El Niño strength is found to be related to the magnitude and spatial extent of large-scale SLP anomalies that move in a low-frequency mode. In association with this, it is also intricately linked to the amplitude and wavelength of the Rossby waves in the southern midlatitudes. The primary signature of the Southern Oscillation is a more pronounced standing wave of pressure anomalies between southeastern Australia and the central South Pacific leading into stronger events. A strong reversal in the strength of the annual cycle between these two regions causes a stronger (weaker) SLP gradient that drives southwesterly (northwesterly) wind stress forcing toward (away from) the western equatorial Pacific in austral winter–spring of year 0 (−1). Thus, pressure variations in the southwest Pacific preconditions the equatorial environment to a particular phase of ENSO and establishes the setting for greater tropical–extratropical interactions to occur in stronger events. Maximum warming in the Niño-3 region occurs between April and July (0) when a strong South Pacific trough most influences the trade winds at both ends of the Pacific. Cool SST anomalies that form to the east of high pressure anomalies over Indo–Australia assist an eastward propogation of high pressure into the Pacific midlatitudes and the demise of El Niño. Strong events have a more pronounced eastward propogation of SST and SLP anomalies and a much more noticeable enhancement of winter hemisphere Rossby waves from May–July (−1) to November–January (+1). Weak events require an enhanced South Pacific trough to develop but have much less support from the North Pacific. They also appear more variable in their development and more difficult to predict with lead time.

Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland Northwest (1651 - 1900)

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily K. Heyerdahl ◽  
Donald McKenzie ◽  
Lori D. Daniels ◽  
Amy E. Hessl ◽  
Jeremy S. Littell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Surface Fires ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Inland Northwest

We inferred climate drivers of regionally synchronous surface fires from 1651 to 1900 at 15 sites with existing annually accurate fire-scar chronologies from forests dominated by ponderosa pine or Douglas-fir in the inland Northwest (interior Oregon, Washington and southern British Columbia). Years with widespread fires (35 years with fire at 7 to 11 sites) had warm spring–summers and warm-dry summers, whereas years with no fires at any site (18 years) had the opposite conditions. Spring climate likely affected the length of the fire season via the effects of snowmelt on soil and fuel moisture, whereas summer climate influenced fuel moisture during the fire season. Climate in prior years was not a significant driver of regionally synchronous surface fires, likely because fuels were generally sufficient for the ignition and spread of such fires in these forests. Fires occurred significantly more often than expected by chance when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were both warm phase and less often when they were both cool phase. Interactions between large-scale climate patterns influenced fire synchrony in the inland Northwest because phases of ENSO and PDO were associated with changes in the frequency of warm-dry v. cool-wet spring–summer climate.

scholarly journals Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1347-1360 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. Lewis ◽  
A. N. LeGrande
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Stability

Abstract. Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records can provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed on long timescales, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are typically underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the long-term characteristics of ENSO and its teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5; Taylor et al., 2012). We show that the relationship between ENSO conditions (NINO3.4) and local climates across the Pacific basin differs significantly for 100-year epochs defining the Last Millennium and the historical period 1906–2005. Furthermore, models demonstrate decadal- to centennial-scale modulation of ENSO behaviour during the Last Millennium. Overall, results suggest that the stability of teleconnections may be regionally dependent and that proxy climate records may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO may require evidence to be considered over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those relating to local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the central Pacific.

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