scholarly journals Northeast Atlantic Storm Activity and Its Uncertainty from the Late Nineteenth to the Twenty-First Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 1919-1931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Krueger ◽  
Frauke Feser ◽  
Ralf Weisse
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Geostrophic Wind ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Northeast Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Late Nineteenth

Geostrophic wind speeds calculated from mean sea level pressure readings are used to derive time series of northeast Atlantic storminess. The technique of geostrophic wind speed triangles provides relatively homogeneous long-term storm activity data and is thus suited for statistical analyses. This study makes use of historical air pressure data available from the International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) complemented with data from the Danish and Norwegian Meteorological Institutes. For the first time, the time series of northeast Atlantic storminess is extended until the most recent year available, that is, 2016. A multidecadal increasing trend in storm activity starting in the mid-1960s and lasting until the 1990s, whose high storminess levels are comparable to those found in the late nineteenth century, initiated debate over whether this would already be a sign of climate change. This study confirms that long-term storminess levels have returned to average values in recent years and that the multidecadal increase is part of an extended interdecadal oscillation. In addition, new storm activity uncertainty estimates were developed and novel insights into the connection with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are provided.

Northeast Atlantic storminess in centennial reanalyses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Krueger ◽  
Frauke Feser ◽  
Christopher Kadow ◽  
Ralf Weisse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Geostrophic Wind ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Northeast Atlantic ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Storm Index

<p>Global atmospheric reanalyses are commonly applied for the validation of climate models, diagnostic studies, and driving higher resolution numerical models with the emphasis on assessing climate variability and long-term trends. Over recent years, longer reanalyses spanning a period of more than hundred years have become available. In this study, the variability and long-term trends of storm activity is assessed over the northeast Atlantic in modern centennial reanalysis datasets, namely ERA-20cm, ERA-20c, CERA-20c, and the 20CR-reanalysis suite with 20CRv3 being the most recent one. All reanalyses, except from ERA-20cm, assimilate surface pressure observations, whereby ERA-20C and CERA-20c additionally assimilate surface winds. For the assessment, the well-established storm index of higher annual percentiles of geostrophic wind speeds derived from pressure observations at sea level over a relatively densely monitored marine area is used.</p><p>The results indicate that the examined centennial reanalyses are not able to represent long-term trends of storm activity over the northeast Atlantic, particularly in the earlier years of the period examined when compared with the geostrophic wind index based on pressure observations. Moreover, the reanalyses show inconsistent long-term behaviour when compared with each other. Only in the latter half of the 20th century, the variability of reanalysed and observed storminess time series starts to agree with each other. Additionally, 20CRv3, the most recent centennial reanalysis examined, shows markedly improved results with increased uncertainty, albeit multidecadal storminess variability does not match observed values in earlier times before about 1920.</p><p>The behaviour shown by the centennial reanalyses are likely caused by the increasing number of assimilated observations, changes in the observational databases used, and the different underlying numerical model systems. Furthermore, the results derived from the ERA-20cm reanalysis that does not assimilate any pressure or wind observations suggests that the variability and uncertainty of storminess over the northeast Atlantic is high making it difficult to determine storm activity when numerical models are not bound by observations. The results of this study imply and reconfirm previous findings that the assessment of long-term storminess trends and variability in centennial reanalyses remains a rather delicate matter, at least for the northeast Atlantic region.</p>

scholarly journals North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 1843*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3582-3595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sönke Dangendorf ◽  
Sylvin Müller-Navarra ◽  
Jürgen Jensen ◽  
Frederik Schenk ◽  
Thomas Wahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Late Nineteenth

Abstract The detection of potential long-term changes in historical storm statistics and storm surges plays a vitally important role for protecting coastal communities. In the absence of long homogeneous wind records, the authors present a novel, independent, and homogeneous storm surge record based on water level observations in the North Sea since 1843. Storm surges are characterized by considerable interannual-to-decadal variability linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Time periods of increased storm surge levels prevailed in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries without any evidence for significant long-term trends. This contradicts with recent findings based on reanalysis data, which suggest increasing storminess in the region since the late nineteenth century. The authors compare the wind and pressure fields from the Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CRv2) with the storm surge record by applying state-of-the-art empirical wind surge formulas. The comparison reveals that the reanalysis is a valuable tool that leads to good results over the past 100 yr; previously the statistical relationship fails, leaving significantly lower values in the upper percentiles of the predicted surge time series. These low values lead to significant upward trends over the entire investigation period, which are in turn supported by neither the storm surge record nor an independent circulation index based on homogeneous pressure readings. The authors therefore suggest that these differences are related to higher uncertainties in the earlier years of the 20CRv2 over the North Sea region.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Pollution, Health, and Height in Late Nineteenth Century Britain

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 1210-1247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy E. Bailey ◽  
Timothy J. Hatton ◽  
Kris Inwood
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Child Development ◽  
Atmospheric Pollution ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Strong Negative Relationship ◽  
Late Nineteenth

In nineteenth century Britain atmospheric pollution from coal-fired industrialization was on the order of 50 times higher than today. We examine the effects of these emissions on child development by analysing the heights on enlistment during WWI of men born in England and Wales in the 1890s. We find a strong negative relationship between adult heights and the coal intensity of the districts in which these men were observed as children in the 1901 census. The subsequent decline in atmospheric pollution likely contributed to the long-term improvement in health and increase in height.

The Politics of Producerism

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine McNicol Stock
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Political Community ◽  
The Political ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Rural People ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
The North ◽  
Late Nineteenth ◽  
North And South

Since colonial times, farmers and other rural men and women have organized to protect their livelihoods and communities from the powerful interests of centralized governments, big banks, and large corporations. In protests movements spanning from Shays Rebellion in Massachusetts to the Farmers Holiday Association in Iowa, rural people agitated for control over local politics and for reforms to the political and economic system that would protect their interests. The Populist Party of the late nineteenth century is among the most important of these groups, as farmers in the north and south came together to create a new kind of political community.

scholarly journals Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy)

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1389-1399 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. De Vita ◽  
V. Allocca ◽  
F. Manna ◽  
S. Fabbrocino
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Karst Spring ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation. In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period. Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results of this study allow for the establishment of a link between a large-scale atmospheric cycle and the groundwater recharge of carbonate karst aquifers. Consequently, the winter NAO index could also be considered as a proxy to forecast the decadal variability of groundwater flow in Mediterranean karst areas.

scholarly journals Comparison of in situ time-series of temperature with gridded sea surface temperature datasets in the North Atlantic

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 1467-1479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah L. Hughes ◽  
N. Penny Holliday ◽  
Eugene Colbourne ◽  
Vladimir Ozhigin ◽  
Hedinn Valdimarsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Hughes, S. L., Holliday, N. P., Colbourne, E., Ozhigin, V., Valdimarsson, H., Østerhus, S., and Wiltshire, K. 2009. Comparison of in situ time-series of temperature with gridded sea surface temperature datasets in the North Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1467–1479. Analysis of the effects of climate variability and climate change on the marine ecosystem is difficult in regions where long-term observations of ocean temperature are sparse or unavailable. Gridded sea surface temperature (SST) products, based on a combination of satellite and in situ observations, can be used to examine variability and long-term trends because they provide better spatial coverage than the limited sets of long in situ time-series. SST data from three gridded products (Reynolds/NCEP OISST.v2., Reynolds ERSST.v3, and the Hadley Centre HadISST1) are compared with long time-series of in situ measurements from ICES standard sections in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. The variability and trends derived from the two data sources are examined, and the usefulness of the products as a proxy for subsurface conditions is discussed.

scholarly journals Anomalies of Central England Temperature Classified by Air Source

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 1069-1081 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
Central England Temperature ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Late Nineteenth ◽  
Circulation Changes

Abstract Daily anomalies of mean central England temperature (CET), relative to daily 1961–90 climatology, are analyzed in terms of the source of the air estimated from fields of mean sea level pressure. The average CET anomaly for a given source and calendar month during 1961–90 is taken as an estimate of the influence of atmospheric circulation for that source and calendar month, and the uncertainty in this influence is provided by the associated standard error. The atmospheric circulation influences are subtracted from the daily CET anomalies since the late nineteenth century to yield “residual anomalies,” which represent the influence of forcings other than atmospheric circulation. The use of air sources captures more circulation-related daily CET variance than the airflow indices used in previous studies. The warming in central England since the 1970s is not predominantly a result of atmospheric circulation changes, and the long-term changes of CET for air from major source regions are on the whole very similar to each other and to the overall long-term changes.

scholarly journals Itinerant Jewish and Arabic Trading in the Dene’s North, 1916-1930

2014 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Colpitts
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
First Nations ◽  
Contact Zone ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
History Of Capitalism ◽  
Canadian North ◽  
History Of ◽  
Late Nineteenth

In late nineteenth century and especially in the interwar years, “free traders” took advantage of better transport systems to expand trade with Dene people in the Athabasca and Mackenzie Districts. Well versed in fur grading and supported by credit in the expanding industrializing fur industry in the south, “itinerant” peddlers worked independently and often controversially alongside larger capitalized fur companies such as the Hudson’s Bay Company. A large number of these newcomers were Jews. This article suggests that Jews and, to a lesser extent, Lebanese and other Arabic traders became critical in the modernization of the Canadian North. They helped create an itinerant trader-Dene “contact zone” where the mixed meaning of credit, cash, and goods transactions provided northern Aboriginal trappers the means to negotiate modernism on their own terms in the interwar years. However, by the late 1920s, the state, encouraged by larger capitalized companies, implemented policies to restrict and finally close down this contact zone. The history of itinerant trading, then, raises questions about the long-term history of capitalism and co-related economic neo-colonialism in the Canadian north and their impact on First Nations.

scholarly journals The Origins of Creationism in the Netherlands: The Evolution Debate among Twentieth-Century Dutch Neo-Calvinists

2012 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham C. Flipse
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
The United States ◽  
Science And Religion ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Founding Fathers ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
The Sixties ◽  
Late Nineteenth

The Netherlands is, besides the United States, one of the few countries where debates about creationism have been raging for decades. Strict creationism has become deeply rooted in traditional Reformed (Calvinist) circles, which is all the more remarkable as it stemmed from a very different culture and theological tradition. This essay analyses the historical implantation of this foreign element in Dutch soil by investigating the long-term interaction between American creationism and Dutch “neo-Calvinism,” a movement emerging in the late nineteenth century, which attempted to bring classical Calvinism into rapport with modern times. The heated debates about evolution in the interbellum period as well as in the sixties—periods characterized by a cultural reorientation of the Dutch Calvinists—turn out to have played a crucial role. In the interbellum period, leading Dutch theologians—fiercely challenged by Calvinist scientists—imported US “flood geology” in an attempt to stem the process of modernisation in the Calvinist subculture. In the sixties many Calvinists abandoned their resistance to evolutionary theory, but creationism continued to play a prominent role as the neo-Calvinist tradition was upheld by an orthodox minority, who (re-)embraced the reviving “Genesis Flood” creationism. The appropriation of American creationism was eased by the earlier Calvinist-creationist connection, but also by “inventing” a Calvinist-creationist tradition, suggesting continuity with the ideas of the founding fathers of neo-Calvinism. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of what Ronald L. Numbers has recently called the “globalization” of the “science-and-religion dialogue.”

scholarly journals Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and spring discharges in the Campania region (Southern Italy)

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 11233-11275
Author(s):  
P. De Vita ◽  
V. Allocca ◽  
F. Manna ◽  
S. Fabbrocino
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Groundwater Circulation ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Climate change is one of the issues most debated by the scientific community with a special focus to the combined effects of anthropogenic modifications of the atmosphere and the natural climatic cycles. Various scenarios have been formulated in order to forecast the global atmospheric circulation and consequently the variability of the global distribution of air temperature and rainfall. The effects of climate change have been analysed with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods, remaining mainly limited to the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle. Consequently the impact of the climate change on the recharge of regional aquifers and on the groundwater circulation is still a challenging topic especially in those areas whose aqueduct systems depend basically on springs or wells, such as the Campania region (Southern Italy). In order to analyse the long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater circulation, we analysed decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (Southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, in the period from 1921 to 2010, choosing 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations among those with the most continuous functioning as well as arranged in a homogeneous spatial distribution. Moreover, for the same period, we gathered the time series of the winter NAO index (December to March mean) and of the discharges of the Sanità spring, belonging to an extended carbonate aquifer (Cervialto Mount) located in the central-eastern area of the Campania region, as well as of two other shorter time series of spring discharges. The hydrogeological features of this aquifer, its relevance due to the feeding of an important regional aqueduct system, as well as the unique availability of a long-lasting time series of spring discharges, allowed us to consider it as an ideal test site, representative of the other carbonate aquifers in the Campania region. The time series of regional normalised indexes of mean annual precipitation, mean annual air temperature and mean annual effective precipitation, as well as the time series of the normalised annual discharge index were calculated. Different methods were applied to analyse the time series: long-term trend analysis, through smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes has highlighted long-term complex periodicities, strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Moreover, we also found robust correlations among precipitation indexes and the annual discharge index, as well as between the latter and the NAO index itself. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation had already been proved on long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results obtained appear original because they establish a link between a large-scale atmospheric cycle and the groundwater circulation of regional aquifers. Therefore, we demonstrated that the winter NAO index can be considered as an effective proxy to forecast the decadal variability of groundwater circulation in Mediterranean areas and in estimating critical scenarios for the feeding of aqueduct systems.

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