scholarly journals Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from NCEP’s Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System with Reference to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Lumped Hydrologic Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 808-836 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Brown ◽  
Dong-Jun Seo ◽  
Jun Du

Abstract Precipitation forecasts from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are verified for the period April 2006–August 2010. Verification is conducted for 10–20 hydrologic basins in each of the following: the middle Atlantic, the southern plains, the windward slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and the foothills of the Cascade Range in the Pacific Northwest. Mean areal precipitation is verified conditionally upon forecast lead time, amount of precipitation, season, forecast valid time, and accumulation period. The stationary block bootstrap is used to quantify the sampling uncertainties of the verification metrics. In general, the forecasts are more skillful for moderate precipitation amounts than either light or heavy precipitation. This originates from a threshold-dependent conditional bias in the ensemble mean forecast. Specifically, the forecasts overestimate low observed precipitation and underestimate high precipitation (a type-II conditional bias). Also, the forecast probabilities are generally overconfident (a type-I conditional bias), except for basins in the southern plains, where forecasts of moderate to high precipitation are reliable. Depending on location, different types of bias correction may be needed. Overall, the northwest basins show the greatest potential for statistical postprocessing, particularly during the cool season, when the type-I conditional bias and correlations are both high. The basins of the middle Atlantic and southern plains show less potential for statistical postprocessing, as the type-II conditional bias is larger and the correlations are weaker. In the Sierra Nevada, the greatest benefits of statistical postprocessing should be expected for light precipitation, specifically during the warm season, when the type-I conditional bias is large and the correlations are strong.

1996 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
pp. 2280-2289 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. G. Malamud ◽  
R. E. Godt ◽  
T. R. Nichols

1. Transient, stretch-evoked force responses of chemically skinned muscle fibers from the cat hindlimb were investigated. The purpose of these experiments was to determine the exent to which short-range stiffness, the apparent stiffness exerted by the fiber over the first 0.5% of length change, is higher in type I than type II muscle fibers. Fibers were obtained from soleus and vastus intermedius muscles, which contain predominantly type I fibers, the LGm, a compartment of the lateral gastrocnemius muscle that contains predominantly type II fibers, and LG3, a compartment of mixed type. 2. Beyond a short range of approximately 1% of muscle length during a 0.5 muscle length/s (ML/s) stretch, most fibers exhibited an abrupt decrease in apparent stiffness or yield. Fibers from the muscles containing predominantly type S (slow twitch, or type I) fibers, soleus and vastus intermedius, exhibited such a pronounced decline in apparent stiffness that force declined as well during continued stretch. Most of the fibers from the LG3 compartment could be divided into two distinct groups depending upon whether or not they showed a force yield at the stretch velocity of 0.5 ML/s. 3. The short-range stiffness measured over the first 0.5% of stretch was greater for fibers showing force yield than for those that did not at matched initial forces and normalized stretch amplitudes. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that the same mechanism that endows the fiber with high short-range stiffness is also responsible for a greater extent of yielding. 4. Fibers from soleus were found to exhibit a force yield over a 200-fold range of velocities (0.01-2 ML/s). In contrast, most fibers from the LGm compartment showed only an increase in extent of yield with stretch velocity. Some of these fibers eventually yielded in force, but only when they were stretched at velocities > 2 ML/s. The proposed relationship between high short-range stiffness and yielding was supported by the finding that short-range stiffness increased sharply in the range of velocities where the fiber showed the greatest increase in extent of yield. 5. After the physiological experiments, fibers were subjected to SDS gel electrophoresis. Two distinct patterns of bands in the low molecular weight range were found to correspond to the two types that were identified on the basis of their dynamic mechanical properties. Fibers that did not yield at 0.5 ML/s showed a band pattern very similar to that of rabbit psoas (type II) fibers. 6. These results support the hypothesis that type I fibers are specialized in presenting a high short-range stiffness for effective postural control in advance of reflex mechanisms and that this property results from intrinsic properties of the fiber and is not due to differences in the dimensions of type I and II fibers. Yielding serves to protect the fiber from damaging levels of force during lengthening contractions. The importance of these transient properties to the mechanical behavior of muscle during ongoing movements is suggested by the observation that high stiffness followed by yielding is repeated with little alteration during successive stretches.


Author(s):  
Ronald S. Weinstein ◽  
N. Scott McNutt

The Type I simple cold block device was described by Bullivant and Ames in 1966 and represented the product of the first successful effort to simplify the equipment required to do sophisticated freeze-cleave techniques. Bullivant, Weinstein and Someda described the Type II device which is a modification of the Type I device and was developed as a collaborative effort at the Massachusetts General Hospital and the University of Auckland, New Zealand. The modifications reduced specimen contamination and provided controlled specimen warming for heat-etching of fracture faces. We have now tested the Mass. General Hospital version of the Type II device (called the “Type II-MGH device”) on a wide variety of biological specimens and have established temperature and pressure curves for routine heat-etching with the device.


Author(s):  
G. D. Gagne ◽  
M. F. Miller ◽  
D. A. Peterson

Experimental infection of chimpanzees with non-A, non-B hepatitis (NANB) or with delta agent hepatitis results in the appearance of characteristic cytoplasmic alterations in the hepatocytes. These alterations include spongelike inclusions (Type I), attached convoluted membranes (Type II), tubular structures (Type III), and microtubular aggregates (Type IV) (Fig. 1). Type I, II and III structures are, by association, believed to be derived from endoplasmic reticulum and may be morphogenetically related. Type IV structures are generally observed free in the cytoplasm but sometimes in the vicinity of type III structures. It is not known whether these structures are somehow involved in the replication and/or assembly of the putative NANB virus or whether they are simply nonspecific responses to cellular injury. When treated with uranyl acetate, type I, II and III structures stain intensely as if they might contain nucleic acids. If these structures do correspond to intermediates in the replication of a virus, one might expect them to contain DNA or RNA and the present study was undertaken to explore this possibility.


Author(s):  
T.A. Fassel ◽  
M.J. Schaller ◽  
M.E. Lidstrom ◽  
C.C. Remsen

Methylotrophic bacteria play an Important role in the environment in the oxidation of methane and methanol. Extensive intracytoplasmic membranes (ICM) have been associated with the oxidation processes in methylotrophs and chemolithotrophic bacteria. Classification on the basis of ICM arrangement distinguishes 2 types of methylotrophs. Bundles or vesicular stacks of ICM located away from the cytoplasmic membrane and extending into the cytoplasm are present in Type I methylotrophs. In Type II methylotrophs, the ICM form pairs of peripheral membranes located parallel to the cytoplasmic membrane. Complex cell wall structures of tightly packed cup-shaped subunits have been described in strains of marine and freshwater phototrophic sulfur bacteria and several strains of methane oxidizing bacteria. We examined the ultrastructure of the methylotrophs with particular view of the ICM and surface structural features, between representatives of the Type I Methylomonas albus (BG8), and Type II Methylosinus trichosporium (OB-36).


1987 ◽  
Vol 48 (C5) ◽  
pp. C5-525-C5-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. J. MOORE ◽  
P. DAWSON ◽  
C. T. FOXON
Keyword(s):  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  

2020 ◽  
pp. 37-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. Shastitko ◽  
O. A. Markova

Digital transformation has led to changes in business models of traditional players in the existing markets. What is more, new entrants and new markets appeared, in particular platforms and multisided markets. The emergence and rapid development of platforms are caused primarily by the existence of so called indirect network externalities. Regarding to this, a question arises of whether the existing instruments of competition law enforcement and market analysis are still relevant when analyzing markets with digital platforms? This paper aims at discussing advantages and disadvantages of using various tools to define markets with platforms. In particular, we define the features of the SSNIP test when being applyed to markets with platforms. Furthermore, we analyze adjustment in tests for platform market definition in terms of possible type I and type II errors. All in all, it turns out that to reduce the likelihood of type I and type II errors while applying market definition technique to markets with platforms one should consider the type of platform analyzed: transaction platforms without pass-through and non-transaction matching platforms should be tackled as players in a multisided market, whereas non-transaction platforms should be analyzed as players in several interrelated markets. However, if the platform is allowed to adjust prices, there emerges additional challenge that the regulator and companies may manipulate the results of SSNIP test by applying different models of competition.


2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshihiro Maruo ◽  
Mahdiyeh Behnam ◽  
Shinichi Ikushiro ◽  
Sayuri Nakahara ◽  
Narges Nouri ◽  
...  

Background: Crigler–Najjar syndrome type I (CN-1) and type II (CN-2) are rare hereditary unconjugated hyperbilirubinemia disorders. However, there have been no reports regarding the co-existence of CN-1 and CN-2 in one family. We experienced a case of an Iranian family that included members with either CN-1 or CN-2. Genetic analysis revealed a mutation in the bilirubin UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) gene that resulted in residual enzymatic activity.Case report: The female proband developed severe hyperbilirubinemia [total serum bilirubin concentration (TB) = 34.8 mg/dL] with bilirubin encephalopathy (kernicterus) and died after liver transplantation. Her family history included a cousin with kernicterus (TB = 30.0 mg/dL) diagnosed as CN-1. Her great grandfather (TB unknown) and uncle (TB = 23.0 mg/dL) developed jaundice, but without any treatment, they remained healthy as CN-2. Results: The affected cousin was homozygous for a novel frameshift mutation (c.381insGG, p.C127WfsX23). The affected uncle was compound heterozygous for p.C127WfsX23 and p.V225G linked with A(TA)7TAA. p.V225G-UGT1A1 reduced glucuronidation activity to 60% of wild-type. Thus, linkage of A(TA)7TAA and p.V225G might reduce UGT1A1 activity to 18%–36 % of the wild-type. Conclusion: Genetic and in vitro expression analyses are useful for accurate genetic counseling for a family with a history of both CN-1 and CN-2. Abbreviations: CN-1: Crigler–Najjar syndrome type I; CN-2: Crigler–Najjar syndrome type II; GS: Gilbert syndrome; UGT1A1: bilirubin UDP-glucuronosyltransferase; WT: Wild type; TB: total serum bilirubin.


2002 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 707-709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphan Haulon ◽  
Serge Willoteaux ◽  
Mohamad Koussa ◽  
Pascal Halna ◽  
Jean-Paul Beregi
Keyword(s):  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  

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