scholarly journals Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoki Ushiyama ◽  
Takahiro Sayama ◽  
Yuya Tatebe ◽  
Susumu Fujioka ◽  
Kazuhiko Fukami
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Kabul River

Abstract Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) and were provided four times daily. Dynamical downscaling was also applied to the forecasts by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), a regional model. The forecasts of the rainfall and inundation area were verified by comparing rain gauge–corrected Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) data and the observed indicator of an inundation map based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. The GFS predicted a sign of heavy rainfall in northern Pakistan 4 days ahead of the onset. However, most of the forecasts predicted it in wrong places, and only those performed after the rainfall onset predicted it in the accurate location. Downscaling corrected the locations of the misplaced GFS forecasts and also underestimated or overestimated rainfall amount derived from GFS. Finally, downscaled forecasts predicted a reliable amount of rainfall in the Kabul River basin 1 day ahead of the rainfall onset and predicted a high probability of heavy rainfall 3 days ahead. Lagged ensemble forecasts of discharge and inundation distribution based on GFS rainfall predicted the probability of the actual discharge and inundation distribution, but in low reliability. The reliability substantially improved when downscaled rainfall was used. The reliability of the flood alert system combining NCEP-GFS, dynamical downscaling by WRF, and the RRI model was at an acceptable level in this study.

A 33-yr Mei-Yu-Season Climatology of Shear Lines over the Yangtze–Huai River Basin in Eastern China

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 1125-1137
Author(s):  
Xiuping Yao ◽  
Jiali Ma ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Lizhu Yan
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Central Basin ◽  
The South ◽  
South Central ◽  
Huai River Basin ◽  
Huai River

AbstractA 33-yr climatology of shear lines occurring over the Yangtze–Huai River basin (YHSLs) of eastern China during the mei-yu season (i.e., June and July) of 1981–2013 is examined using the daily ERA-Interim reanalysis data and daily rain gauge observations. Results show that (i) nearly 75% of the heavy-rainfall days (i.e., >50 mm day−1) are accompanied by YHSLs, (ii) about 66% of YHSLs can produce heavy rainfall over the Yangtze–Huai River basin, and (iii) YHSL-related heavy rainfall occurs frequently in the south-central basin. The statistical properties of YHSLs are investigated by classifying them into warm, cold, quasi-stationary, and vortex types based on their distinct flow and thermal patterns as well as orientations and movements. Although the warm-type rainfall intensity is the weakest among the four, it has the highest number of heavy-rainfall days, making it the largest contributor (33%) to the total mei-yu rainfall amounts associated with YHSLs. By comparison, the quasi-stationary type has the smallest number of heavy-rainfall days, contributing about 19% to the total rainfall, whereas the vortex type is the more frequent extreme-rain producer (i.e., >100 mm day−1). The four types of YHSLs are closely related to various synoptic-scale low-to-midtropospheric disturbances—such as the southwest vortex, low-level jets, and midlatitude traveling perturbations that interact with mei-yu fronts over the basin and a subtropical high to the south—that provide favorable lifting and the needed moisture supply for heavy-rainfall production. The results have important implications for the operational rainfall forecasts associated with YHSLs through analog pattern recognition.

Impacts of Mid-Rainy Season Rainfall on Runoff into the Chao Phraya River, Thailand

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shunji Kotsuki ◽  
◽  
Kenji Tanaka ◽  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Chao Phraya River ◽  
June July

In Chao Phraya River basin, the runoff at the middle basin (Nakhon Sawan station: C.2 point) is important for the prevention of lower basin floods. Through analyzing 1980 to 2011 runoff and rain gauge data and performing numerical calculations using a hydrological land surface model, this study will describe a condition that causes massive floods at the C.2 point. The main conclusions are the following: (1) In 2011, precipitation exceeding the average by about 40% caused naturalized runoff +125% (+29 billion m3) that in an average year. The massive 2011 flood would have been difficult to prevent even if the operation of the Bhumibol Dam and Sirikit Dam had been appropriate. (2) In 1980, 1995, and 2006, precipitation exceeding the average by about 10% caused naturalized runoff exceeding that of the average year by 50 to 75%. The runoff rate in the Chao Phraya River basin is about 20%, and characteristically a minor increase in precipitation results in a considerable amount of runoff. (3) There are natural flood years, which have higher than average precipitation that causes massive floods, and there are non-natural flood years, which have high precipitation but nomassive floods. In natural flood years, the precipitation in June, July, and August is higher than that in the average years, and the total water storage capacity is brought close to saturation in September. Due to this, in addition to base runoff, surface runoff increases. (4) The coefficient of the determination of observed runoff from August to October is 0.6481 for rainfall from June to August and 0.5276 for rainfall from August to October. Heavy rainfall in June, July and August has the effect of bringing the soil close to saturation, which is a necessary condition for massive flooding. Massive flooding results if this necessary condition is met and there is heavy rainfall in September and October. This finding is also supported by a high coefficient of determination of 0.7260 between rainfall in May, June, July, August, September, and October and naturalized runoff in August, September, and October.

Rainfall Prediction in South-Eastern Part of Bangladesh by Linear Regression Method

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Mohammad Shohidul Islam ◽  
Sultana Easmin Siddika ◽  
S M Injamamul Haque Masum
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Rainfall Prediction

Rainfall forecasting is very challenging task for the meteorologists. Over the last few decades, several models have been utilized, attempting the successful analysing and forecasting of rainfall. Recorded climate data can play an important role in this regard. Long-time duration of recorded data can be able to provide better advancement of rainfall forecasting. This paper presents the utilization of statistical techniques, particularly linear regression method for modelling the rainfall prediction over Bangladesh. The rainfall data for a period of 11 years was obtained from Bangladesh Meteorological department (BMD), Dhaka i.e. that was surface-based rain gauge rainfall which was acquired from 08 weather stations over Bangladesh for the years of 2001-2011. The monthly and yearly rainfall was determined. In order to assess the accuracy of it some statistical parameters such as average, meridian, correlation coefficients and standard deviation were determined for all stations. The model prediction of rainfall was compared with true rainfall which was collected from rain gauge of different stations and it was found that the model rainfall prediction has given good results.

Long-term variation of water vapor content and precipitation in the Haihe river basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun Chang ◽  
Ping Feng ◽  
Fawen Li ◽  
Yunming Gao
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Water Vapor Content ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
Annual Water ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
High Consistency ◽  
The Haihe River Basin

Based on the Haihe river basin National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data from 1948 to 2010 and the precipitation data of 53 hydrological stations during 1957–2010, this study analyzed the variation of water vapor content and precipitation, and investigated the correlation between them using several statistical methods. The results showed that the annual water vapor content decreased drastically from 1948 to 2010. It was comparatively high from the late 1940s to the late 1960s and depreciated from the early 1970s. From the southeast to the northwest of the Haihe river basin, there was a decrease in water vapor content. For vertical distribution, water vapor content from the ground to 700 hPa pressure level accounted for 72.9% of the whole atmospheric layer, which indicated that the water vapor of the Haihe river basin was mainly in the air close to the ground. The precipitation in the Haihe river basin during 1957–2010 decreased very slightly. According to the correlation analysis, the precipitation and water vapor content changes showed statistically positive correlation, in addition, their break points were both in the 1970s. Furthermore, the high consistency between the precipitation efficiency and precipitation demonstrates that water vapor content is one of the important factors in the formation of precipitation.

scholarly journals Flood Inundation Assessment in the Low-Lying River Basin Considering Extreme Rainfall Impacts and Topographic Vulnerability

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 896
Author(s):  
Thanh Thu Nguyen ◽  
Makoto Nakatsugawa ◽  
Tomohito J. Yamada ◽  
Tsuyoshi Hoshino
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Inundation Duration ◽  
Short Time

This study aims to evaluate the change in flood inundation in the Chitose River basin (CRB), a tributary of the Ishikari River, considering the extreme rainfall impacts and topographic vulnerability. The changing impacts were assessed using a large-ensemble rainfall dataset with a high resolution of 5 km (d4PDF) as input data for the rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) model. Additionally, the prediction of time differences between the peak discharge in the Chitose River and peak water levels at the confluence point intersecting the Ishikari River were improved compared to the previous study. Results indicate that due to climatic changes, extreme river floods are expected to increase by 21–24% in the Ishikari River basin (IRB), while flood inundation is expected to be severe and higher in the CRB, with increases of 24.5, 46.5, and 13.8% for the inundation area, inundation volume, and peak inundation depth, respectively. Flood inundation is likely to occur in the CRB downstream area with a frequency of 90–100%. Additionally, the inundation duration is expected to increase by 5–10 h here. Moreover, the short time difference (0–10 h) is predicted to increase significantly in the CRB. This study provides useful information for policymakers to mitigate flood damage in vulnerable areas.

scholarly journals Flood Risk Management with Transboundary Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics in the Kabul River Basin

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1513
Author(s):  
Yar M. Taraky ◽  
Yongbo Liu ◽  
Ed McBean ◽  
Prasad Daggupati ◽  
Bahram Gharabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Transboundary Water ◽  
Transboundary Water Management ◽  
Kabul River

The Kabul River, while having its origin in Afghanistan, has a primary tributary, the Konar River, which originates in Pakistan and enters Afghanistan near Barikot-Arandu. The Kabul River then re-enters Pakistan near Laalpur, Afghanistan making it a true transboundary river. The catastrophic flood events due to major snowmelt events in the Hindu Kush mountains occur every other year, inundating many major urban centers. This study investigates the flood risk under 30 climate and dam management scenarios to assess opportunities for transboundary water management strategy in the Kabul River Basin (KRB). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed-scale hydraulic modeling tool that was employed to forecast peak flows to characterize flood inundation areas using the river flood routing modelling tool Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System -HEC-RAS for the Nowshera region. This study shows how integrated transboundary water management in the KRB can play a vital catalyst role with significant socio-economic benefits for both nations. The study proposes a KRB-specific agreement, where flood risk management is a significant driver that can bring both countries to work together under the Equitable Water Resource Utilization Doctrine to save lives in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The findings show that flood mitigation relying on collaborative efforts for both upstream and downstream riparian states is highly desirable.

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