scholarly journals Radar Data Assimilation with WRF 4D-Var. Part II: Comparison with 3D-Var for a Squall Line over the U.S. Great Plains

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (7) ◽  
pp. 2245-2264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juanzhen Sun ◽  
Hongli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system described in Part I of this study is compared with its corresponding three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) system using a Great Plains squall line observed during the International H2O Project. Two 3D-Var schemes are used in the comparison: a standard 3D-Var radar data assimilation (DA) that is the same as the 4D-Var except for the exclusion of the constraining dynamical model and an enhanced 3D-Var that includes a scheme to assimilate an estimated in-cloud humidity field. The comparison is made by verifying their skills in 0–6-h quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) against stage-IV analysis, as well as in wind forecasts against radial velocity observations. The relative impacts of assimilating radial velocity and reflectivity on QPF are also compared between the 4D-Var and 3D-Var by conducting data-denial experiments. The results indicate that 4D-Var substantially improves the QPF skill over the standard 3D-Var for the entire 6-h forecast range and over the enhanced 3D-Var for most forecast hours. Radial velocity has a larger impact relative to reflectivity in 4D-Var than in 3D-Var in the first 3 h because of a quicker precipitation spinup. The analyses and forecasts from the 4D-Var and 3D-Var schemes are further compared by examining the meridional wind, horizontal convergence, low-level cold pool, and midlevel temperature perturbation, using analyses from the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) as references. The diagnoses of these fields suggest that the 4D-Var analyzes the low-level cold pool, its leading edge convergence, and midlevel latent heating in closer resemblance to the VDRAS analyses than the 3D-Var schemes.

scholarly journals A 3.5-Dimensional Variational Method for Doppler Radar Data Assimilation and Its Application to Phased-Array Radar Observations

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Xu ◽  
Li Wei ◽  
Wei Gu ◽  
Jiandong Gong ◽  
Qingyun Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Variational Method ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Phased Array ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Velocity Fields ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Phased Array Radar ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

A 3.5-dimensional variational method is developed for Doppler radar data assimilation. In this method, incremental analyses are performed in three steps to update the model state upon the background state provided by the model prediction. First, radar radial-velocity observations from three consecutive volume scans are analyzed on the model grid. The analyzed radial-velocity fields are then used in step 2 to produce incremental analyses for the vector velocity fields at two time levels between the three volume scans. The analyzed vector velocity fields are used in step 3 to produce incremental analyses for the thermodynamic fields at the central time level accompanied by the adjustments in water vapor and hydrometeor mixing ratios based on radar reflectivity observations. The finite element B-spline representations and recursive filter are used to reduce the dimension of the analysis space and enhance the computational efficiency. The method is applied to a squall line case observed by the phased-array radar with rapid volume scans at the National Weather Radar Testbed and is shown to be effective in assimilating the phased-array radar observations and improve the prediction of the subsequent evolution of the squall line.

scholarly journals Multiple-Radar Data Assimilation and Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP_2002

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (10) ◽  
pp. 3381-3404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingnong Xiao ◽  
Juanzhen Sun
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Precipitation Forecasting ◽  
Doppler Radar Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

Abstract The impact of multiple–Doppler radar data assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is examined in this study. The newly developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (WRF 3DVAR) are used. In this study, multiple–Doppler radar data assimilation is applied in WRF 3DVAR cycling mode to initialize a squall-line convective system on 13 June 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) and the ARW QPF skills are evaluated for the case. Numerical experiments demonstrate that WRF 3DVAR can successfully assimilate Doppler radial velocity and reflectivity from multiple radar sites and extract useful information from the radar data to initiate the squall-line convective system. Assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity results in sound analyses that show adjustments in both the dynamical and thermodynamical fields that are consistent with the WRF 3DVAR balance constraint and background error correlation. The cycling of the Doppler radar data from the 12 radar sites at 2100 UTC 12 June and 0000 UTC 13 June produces a more detailed mesoscale structure of the squall-line convection in the model initial conditions at 0000 UTC 13 June. Evaluations of the ARW QPF skills with initialization via Doppler radar data assimilation demonstrate that the more radar data in the temporal and spatial dimensions are assimilated, the more positive is the impact on the QPF skill. Assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity has more positive impact on the QPF skill than does assimilation of either radial velocity or reflectivity only. The improvement of the QPF skill with multiple-radar data assimilation is more clearly observed in heavy rainfall than in light rainfall. In addition to the improvement of the QPF skill, the simulated structure of the squall line is also enhanced by the multiple–Doppler radar data assimilation in the WRF 3DVAR cycling experiment. The vertical airflow pattern shows typical characteristics of squall-line convection. The cold pool and its related squall-line convection triggering process are better initiated in the WRF 3DVAR analysis and simulated in the ARW forecast when multiple–Doppler radar data are assimilated.

scholarly journals An Ice-Phase Microphysics Forward Model and Preliminary Results of Polarimetric Radar Data Assimilation

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (2) ◽  
pp. 683-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuanli Li ◽  
John R. Mecikalski ◽  
Derek Posselt
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Forward Model ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation ◽  
Ice Phase

In this study, an ice-phase microphysics forward model has been developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model three-dimensional variational data assimilation (WRF 3D-Var) system. Radar forward operators for reflectivity and the polarimetric variable, specific differential phase ( KDP), have been built into the ice-phase WRF 3D-Var package to allow modifications in liquid (cloud water and rain) and solid water (cloud ice and snow) fields through data assimilation. Experiments have been conducted to assimilate reflectivity and radial velocity observations collected by the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Hytop, Alabama, for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 15 March 2008. Numerical results have been examined to assess the impact of the WSR-88D data using the ice-phase WRF 3D-Var radar data assimilation package. The main goals are to first demonstrate radar data assimilation with an ice-phase microphysics forward model and second to improve understanding on how to enhance the utilization of radar data in numerical weather prediction. Results showed that the assimilation of reflectivity and radial velocity data using the ice-phase system provided significant improvement especially in the mid- to upper troposphere. The improved initial conditions led to apparent improvement in the short-term precipitation forecast of the MCS. An additional experiment has been conducted to explore the assimilation of KDP data collected by the Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Results showed that KDP data have been successfully assimilated using the ice-phase 3D-Var package. A positive impact of the KDP data has been found on rainwater in the lower troposphere and snow in the mid- to upper troposphere.

Radar Data Assimilation with WRF 4D-Var. Part I: System Development and Preliminary Testing

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (7) ◽  
pp. 2224-2244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongli Wang ◽  
Juanzhen Sun ◽  
Xin Zhang ◽  
Xiang-Yu Huang ◽  
Thomas Auligné
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Single Observation ◽  
Preliminary Testing ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract The major goal of this two-part study is to assimilate radar data into the high-resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) for the improvement of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) technique. In Part I the development of a radar data assimilation scheme within the WRF 4D-Var system (WRF 4D-Var) and the preliminary testing of the scheme are described. In Part II the performance of the enhanced WRF 4D-Var system is examined by comparing it with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (WRF 3D-Var) for a convective system over the U.S. Great Plains. The WRF 4D-Var radar data assimilation system has been developed with the existing framework of an incremental formulation. The new development for radar data assimilation includes the tangent-linear and adjoint models of a Kessler warm-rain microphysics scheme and the new control variables of cloud water, rainwater, and vertical velocity and their error statistics. An ensemble forecast with 80 members is used to produce background error covariance. The preliminary testing presented in this paper includes single-observation experiments as well as real data assimilation experiments on a squall line with assimilation windows of 5, 15, and 30 min. The results indicate that the system is able to obtain anisotropic multivariate analyses at the convective scale and improve precipitation forecasts. The results also suggest that the incremental approach with successive basic-state updates works well at the convection-permitting scale for radar data assimilation with the selected assimilation windows.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Combined Satellite and Radar Data Assimilation with POD-4DEnVar Method on Rainfall Forecast

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 5493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingnan Wang ◽  
Lifeng Zhang ◽  
Jiping Guan ◽  
Mingyang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Rainfall Forecast ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

Satellite and radar observations represent two fundamentally different remote sensing observation types, providing independent information for numerical weather prediction (NWP). Because the individual impact on improving forecast has previously been examined, combining these two resources of data potentially enhances the performance of weather forecast. In this study, satellite radiance, radar radial velocity and reflectivity are simultaneously assimilated with the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD)-based ensemble four-dimensional variational (4DVar) assimilation method (referred to as POD-4DEnVar). The impact is evaluated on continuous severe rainfall processes occurred from June to July in 2016 and 2017. Results show that combined assimilation of satellite and radar data with POD-4DEnVar has the potential to improve weather forecast. Averaged over 22 forecasts, RMSEs indicate that though the forecast results are sensitive to different variables, generally the improvement is found in different pressure levels with assimilation. The precipitation skill scores are generally increased when assimilation is carried out. A case study is also examined to figure out the contributions to forecast improvement. Better intensity and distribution of precipitation forecast is found in the accumulated rainfall evolution with POD-4DEnVar assimilation. These improvements are attributed to the local changes in moisture, temperature and wind field. In addition, with radar data assimilation, the initial rainwater and cloud water conditions are changed directly. Both experiments can simulate the strong hydrometeor in the precipitation area, but assimilation spins up faster, strengthening the initial intensity of the heavy rainfall. Generally, the combined assimilation of satellite and radar data results in better rainfall forecast than without data assimilation.

scholarly journals Impact of a Diagnostic Pressure Equation Constraint on Tornadic Supercell Thunderstorm Forecasts Initialized Using 3DVAR Radar Data Assimilation

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqing Ge ◽  
Jidong Gao ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Pressure Equation ◽  
Supercell Thunderstorm ◽  
Weighting Coefficients ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation ◽  
Equation Constraint

A diagnostic pressure equation constraint has been incorporated into a storm-scale three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. This diagnostic pressure equation constraint (DPEC) is aimed to improve dynamic consistency among different model variables so as to produce better data assimilation results and improve the subsequent forecasts. Ge et al. (2012) described the development of DPEC and testing of it with idealized experiments. DPEC was also applied to a real supercell case, but only radial velocity was assimilated. In this paper, DPEC is further applied to two real tornadic supercell thunderstorm cases, where both radial velocity and radar reflectivity data are assimilated. The impact of DPEC on radar data assimilation is examined mainly based on the storm forecasts. It is found that the experiments using DPEC generally predict higher low-level vertical vorticity than the experiments not using DPEC near the time of observed tornadoes. Therefore, it is concluded that the use of DPEC improves the forecast of mesocyclone rotation within supercell thunderstorms. The experiments using different weighting coefficients generate similar results. This suggests that DPEC is not very sensitive to the weighting coefficients.

scholarly journals Typhoon rainstorm simulation with radar data assimilation in southeast coast of China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyang Tian ◽  
Ronghua Liu ◽  
Liuqian Ding ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Bingyu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Southeast Coast ◽  
Assimilation Time ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

Abstract. As an effective technique to improve the rainfall forecast, data assimilation plays an important role in meteorology and hydrology. The aim of this study is to explore the reasonable use of Doppler radar data assimilation to correct the initial and lateral boundary conditions of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied to simulate three typhoon storm events in southeast coast of China. Radar data from Changle Doppler radar station are assimilated with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3-DVar) model. Nine assimilation modes are designed by three kinds of radar data (radar reflectivity, radial velocity, radar reflectivity and radial velocity) and three assimilation time intervals (1 h, 3 h and 6 h). The rainfall simulations in a medium-scale catchment, Meixi, are evaluated by three indices including relative error (RE), critical success index (CSI) and root mean square error (RMSE). Assimilating radial velocity with time interval of 1 h can significantly improve the rainfall simulations and outperforms the other modes for all the three storm events. Shortening the assimilation time interval can improve the rainfall simulations in most cases, while assimilating radar reflectivity always leads to worse simulation as the time interval shortens. The rainfall simulation can be improved by data assimilation as a whole, especially for the heavy rainfall with strong convection. The findings provide references for improving the typhoon rainfall forecasts in catchment scale and have great significance on typhoon rainstorm warning.

scholarly journals Precipitation Forecast Characteristics of Radar Data Assimilation Based on Precipitation Types

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong-Ho Bae ◽  
Ki-Hong Min
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Assimilation Experiment ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

Radar observation data with high temporal and spatial resolution are used in the data assimilation experiment to improve precipitation forecast of a numerical model. The numerical model considered in this study is Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6). We calculated radar equivalent reflectivity factor using higher resolution WRF and compared with radar observations in South Korea. To compare the precipitation forecast characteristics of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation of radar data, four experiments are performed based on different precipitation types. Comparisons of the 24-h accumulated rainfall with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagram (CFAD), Time Height Cross Sections (THCS), and vertical hydrometeor profiles are used to evaluate and compare the accuracy. The model simulations are performed with and with-out 3D-VAR radar reflectivity, radial velocity and AWS assimilation for two mesoscale convective cases and two synoptic scale cases. The radar data assimilation experiment improved the location of precipitation area and rainfall intensity compared to the control run. Especially, for the two convective cases, simulating mesoscale convective system was greatly improved.

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