scholarly journals The Impact of a Stochastically Perturbing Microphysics Scheme on an Idealized Supercell Storm

2017 ◽  
Vol 146 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoshi Qiao ◽  
Shizhang Wang ◽  
Jinzhong Min
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Recursive Filters ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Temperature Tendency ◽  
Stochastically Perturbed

Abstract The concept of stochastic parameterization provides an opportunity to represent spatiotemporal errors caused by microphysics schemes that play important roles in supercell simulations. In this study, two stochastic methods, the stochastically perturbed temperature tendency from microphysics (SPTTM) method and the stochastically perturbed intercept parameters of microphysics (SPIPM) method, are implemented within the Lin scheme, which is based on the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model, and are tested using an idealized supercell case. The SPTTM and SPIPM methods perturb the temperature tendency and the intercept parameters (IPs), respectively. Both methods use recursive filters to generate horizontally smooth perturbations and adopt the barotropic structure for the perturbation r, which is multiplied by tendencies or parameters from this parameterization. A double-moment microphysics scheme is used for the truth run. Compared to the multiparameter method, which uses randomly perturbed prescribed parameters, stochastic methods often produce larger ensemble spreads and better forecast the intensity of updraft helicity (UH). The SPTTM method better predicts the intensity by intensifying the midlevel heating with its positive perturbation r, whereas it performs worse in the presence of negative perturbation. In contrast, the SPIPM method can increase the intensity of UH by either positive or negative perturbation, which increases the likelihood for members to predict strong UH.

scholarly journals Low-Level Polarimetric Radar Signatures in EnKF Analyses and Forecasts of the May 8, 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell: Impact of Multimoment Microphysics and Comparisons with Observation

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel T. Dawson II ◽  
Louis J. Wicker ◽  
Edward R. Mansell ◽  
Youngsun Jung ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Oklahoma City ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Dual Polarization ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
The Impact

The impact of increasing the number of predicted moments in a multimoment bulk microphysics scheme is investigated using ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of the May 8, 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic supercell storm and the analyses are validated using dual-polarization radar observations. The triple-moment version of the microphysics scheme exhibits the best performance, relative to the single- and double-moment versions, in reproducing the low-ZDRhail core and high-ZDRarc, as well as an improved probabilistic track forecast of the mesocyclone. A comparison of the impact of the improved microphysical scheme on probabilistic forecasts of the mesocyclone track with the observed tornado track is also discussed.

Impact of a Vertical Vorticity Constraint in Variational Dual-Doppler Wind Analysis: Tests with Real and Simulated Supercell Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corey K. Potvin ◽  
Alan Shapiro ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Mass Conservation ◽  
Vorticity Equation ◽  
Vertical Vorticity ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Radar Networks ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract One of the greatest challenges to dual-Doppler retrieval of the vertical wind is the lack of low-level divergence information available to the mass conservation constraint. This study examines the impact of a vertical vorticity equation constraint on vertical velocity retrievals when radar observations are lacking near the ground. The analysis proceeds in a three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) framework with the anelastic form of the vertical vorticity equation imposed along with traditional data, mass conservation, and smoothness constraints. The technique is tested using emulated radial wind observations of a supercell storm simulated by the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), as well as real dual-Doppler observations of a supercell storm that occurred in Oklahoma on 8 May 2003. Special attention is given to procedures to evaluate the vorticity tendency term, including spatially variable advection correction and estimation of the intrinsic evolution. Volume scan times ranging from 5 min, typical of operational radar networks, down to 30 s, achievable by rapid-scan mobile radars, are considered. The vorticity constraint substantially improves the vertical velocity retrievals in our experiments, particularly for volume scan times smaller than 2 min.

scholarly journals Explicit Prediction of Hail in a Long-Lasting Multicellular Convective System in Eastern China Using Multimoment Microphysics Schemes

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (9) ◽  
pp. 3115-3137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liping Luo ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Kefeng Zhu ◽  
Bowen Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Eastern China ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Distribution Characteristics ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Particle Size Distributions ◽  
Growth Processes ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Size Sorting

Abstract During the afternoon of 28 April 2015, a multicellular convective system swept southward through much of Jiangsu Province, China, over about 7 h, producing egg-sized hailstones on the ground. The hailstorm event is simulated using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) at 1-km grid spacing. Different configurations of the Milbrandt–Yau microphysics scheme are used, predicting one, two, and three moments of the hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSDs). Simulated reflectivity and maximum estimated size of hail (MESH) derived from the simulations are verified against reflectivity observed by operational S-band Doppler radars and radar-derived MESH, respectively. Comparisons suggest that the general evolution of the hailstorm is better predicted by the three-moment scheme, and neighborhood-based MESH evaluation further confirms the advantage of the three-moment scheme in hail size prediction. Surface accumulated hail mass, number, and hail distribution characteristics within simulated storms are examined across sensitivity experiments. Results suggest that multimoment schemes produce more realistic hail distribution characteristics, with the three-moment scheme performing the best. Size sorting is found to play a significant role in determining hail distribution within the storms. Detailed microphysical budget analyses are conducted for each experiment, and results indicate that the differences in hail growth processes among the experiments can be mainly ascribed to the different treatments of the shape parameter within different microphysics schemes. Both the differences in size sorting and hail growth processes contribute to the simulated hail distribution differences within storms and at the surface.

scholarly journals Analysis and Forecast of a Tornadic Thunderstorm Using Multiple Doppler Radar Data, 3DVAR, and ARPS Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Edward Natenberg ◽  
Jidong Gao ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Frederick H. Carr
Keyword(s):  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
The Impact

A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation technique developed for a convective-scale NWP model—advanced regional prediction system (ARPS)—is used to analyze the 8 May 2003, Moore/Midwest City, Oklahoma tornadic supercell thunderstorm. Previous studies on this case used only one or two radars that are very close to this storm. However, three other radars observed the upper-level part of the storm. Because these three radars are located far away from the targeted storm, they were overlooked by previous studies. High-frequency intermittent 3DVAR analyses are performed using the data from five radars that together provide a more complete picture of this storm. The analyses capture a well-defined mesocyclone in the midlevels and the wind circulation associated with a hook-shaped echo. The analyses produced through this technique are used as initial conditions for a 40-minute storm-scale forecast. The impact of multiple radars on a short-term NWP forecast is most evident when compared to forecasts using data from only one and two radars. The use of all radars provides the best forecast in which a strong low-level mesocyclone develops and tracks in close proximity to the actual tornado damage path.

Improvement in Global Cloud-System-Resolving Simulations by Using a Double-Moment Bulk Cloud Microphysics Scheme

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 2405-2419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Seiki ◽  
Chihiro Kodama ◽  
Akira T. Noda ◽  
Masaki Satoh
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Cloud System ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the impact of an alteration of a cloud microphysics scheme on the representation of longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCRF) and its impact on the atmosphere in global cloud-system-resolving simulations. A new double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme is used, and the simulated results are compared with those of a previous study. It is demonstrated that improvements within the new cloud microphysics scheme have the potential to substantially improve climate simulations. The new cloud microphysics scheme represents a realistic spatial distribution of the cloud fraction and LWCRF, particularly near the tropopause. The improvement in the cirrus cloud-top height by the new cloud microphysics scheme substantially reduces the warm bias in atmospheric temperature from the previous simulation via LWCRF by the cirrus clouds. The conversion rate of cloud ice to snow and gravitational sedimentation of cloud ice are the most important parameters for determining the strength of the radiative heating near the tropopause and its impact on atmospheric temperature.

scholarly journals Aerosol effects on the development of a supercell storm in a double-moment bulk-cloud microphysics scheme

2011 ◽  
Vol 116 (D2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Seong Soo Yum ◽  
Jimy Dudhia ◽  
Joseph B. Klemp
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
Aerosol Effects

scholarly journals The effects of turbulent collision–coalescence on precipitation formation and precipitation-dynamical feedbacks in simulations of stratocumulus and shallow cumulus convection

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 6557-6570 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. N. Franklin
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Droplet Collision ◽  
Shallow Cumulus ◽  
Turbulence Effects ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A double moment warm rain scheme that includes the effects of turbulence on droplet collision rates has been implemented in a large-eddy model to investigate the impact of turbulence effects on clouds and precipitation. Simulations of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus show that different precipitation-dynamical feedbacks occur in these regimes when the effects of turbulence are included in the microphysical processes. In both cases inclusion of turbulent microphysics increases precipitation due to a more rapid conversion of cloud water to rain. In the shallow convection case, the greater water loading in the upper cloud levels reduces the buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and the entrainment. The stratocumulus case on the other hand shows a weak positive precipitation feedback, with enhanced rainwater producing greater evaporation, stronger circulations and more turbulence. Sensitivity studies in which the cloud droplet number was varied show that greater number concentrations suppress the stratocumulus precipitation leading to larger liquid water paths. This positive second indirect aerosol effect shows no sensitivity to whether or not the effects of turbulence on droplet collision rates are included. While the sign of the second indirect effect is negative in the shallow convection case whether the effects of turbulence are considered or not, the magnitude of the effect is doubled when the turbulent microphysics are used. It is found that for these two different cloud regimes turbulence has a larger effect than cloud droplet number and the use of a different bulk microphysics scheme on producing rainfall in shallow cumuli. However, for the stratocumulus case examined here, the effects of turbulence on rainfall are not statistically significant and instead it is the cloud droplet number concentration or the choice of bulk microphysics scheme that has the largest control on the rain water.

scholarly journals A study of the influence of forest gaps on fire–atmosphere interactions

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (13) ◽  
pp. 8499-8509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. Kiefer ◽  
Warren E. Heilman ◽  
Shiyuan Zhong ◽  
Joseph J. Charney ◽  
Xindi Bian
Keyword(s):  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Forest Canopies ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Forest Gaps ◽  
Low Intensity ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Surface Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Atmospheric Perturbations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Enhanced Surface

Abstract. Much uncertainty exists regarding the possible role that gaps in forest canopies play in modulating fire–atmosphere interactions in otherwise horizontally homogeneous forests. This study examines the influence of gaps in forest canopies on atmospheric perturbations induced by a low-intensity fire using the ARPS-CANOPY model, a version of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model with a canopy parameterization. A series of numerical experiments are conducted with a stationary low-intensity fire, represented in the model as a line of enhanced surface sensible heat flux. Experiments are conducted with and without forest gaps, and with gaps in different positions relative to the fire line. For each of the four cases considered, an additional simulation is performed without the fire to facilitate comparison of the fire-perturbed atmosphere and the background state. Analyses of both mean and instantaneous wind velocity, turbulent kinetic energy, air temperature, and turbulent mixing of heat are presented in order to examine the fire-perturbed atmosphere on multiple timescales. Results of the analyses indicate that the impact of the fire on the atmosphere is greatest in the case with the gap centered on the fire and weakest in the case with the gap upstream of the fire. It is shown that gaps in forest canopies have the potential to play a role in the vertical as well as horizontal transport of heat away from the fire. Results also suggest that, in order to understand how the fire will alter wind and turbulence in a heterogeneous forest, one needs to first understand how the forest heterogeneity itself influences the wind and turbulence fields without the fire.

Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses of the 29–30 May 2004 Oklahoma Tornadic Thunderstorm Using One- and Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes, with Verification against Polarimetric Radar Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (5) ◽  
pp. 1457-1475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngsun Jung ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Mingjing Tong
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
General Structure ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Polarimetric Radar ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Independent Observations

Abstract The performance of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analysis is investigated for the tornadic supercell on 29–30 May 2004 in Oklahoma using a dual-moment (DM) bulk microphysics scheme in the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model. The comparison of results using single-moment (SM) and DM microphysics schemes evaluates the benefits of using one over the other during storm analysis. Observations from a single operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) are assimilated and a polarimetric WSR-88D in Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), is used to assess the quality of the analysis. Analyzed reflectivity and radial velocity in the SM and DM experiments compare favorably with independent radar observations in general. However, simulated polarimetric signatures obtained from analyses using a DM scheme agree significantly better with polarimetric signatures observed by KOUN in terms of the general structure, location, and intensity of the signatures than those generated from analyses using an SM scheme. These results demonstrate for the first time for a real supercell storm that EnKF data assimilation using a numerical model with an adequate microphysics scheme (i.e., a scheme that predicts at least two moments of the hydrometeor size distributions) is capable of producing polarimetric radar signatures similar to those seen in observations without directly assimilating polarimetric data. In such cases, the polarimetric data also serve as completely independent observations for the verification purposes.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Surface Analyses over the Western United States to RAWS Observations

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
David T. Myrick ◽  
John D. Horel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Federal, state, and other wildland resource management agencies contribute to the collection of weather observations from over 1000 Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) in the western United States. The impact of RAWS observations on surface objective analyses during the 2003/04 winter season was assessed using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Assimilation System (ADAS). A set of control analyses was created each day at 0000 and 1200 UTC using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses as the background fields and assimilating approximately 3000 surface observations from MesoWest. Another set of analyses was generated by withholding all of the RAWS observations available at each time while 10 additional sets of analyses were created by randomly withholding comparable numbers of observations obtained from all sources. Random withholding of observations from the analyses provides a baseline estimate of the analysis quality. Relative to this baseline, removing the RAWS observations degrades temperature (wind speed) analyses by an additional 0.5°C (0.9 m s−1) when evaluated in terms of rmse over the entire season. RAWS temperature observations adjust the RUC background the most during the early morning hours and during winter season cold pool events in the western United States while wind speed observations have a greater impact during active weather periods. The average analysis area influenced by at least 1.0°C (2.5°C) by withholding each RAWS observation is on the order of 600 km2 (100 km2). The spatial influence of randomly withheld observations is much less.

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