A Lightning Data Assimilation Technique for Mesoscale Forecast Models

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (5) ◽  
pp. 1732-1748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward R. Mansell ◽  
Conrad L. Ziegler ◽  
Donald R. MacGorman
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Mapping Array ◽  
Total Lightning

Abstract Lightning observations have been assimilated into a mesoscale model for improvement of forecast initial conditions. Data are used from the National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to-ground lightning detection) and a Lightning Mapping Array (total lightning detection) that was installed in western Kansas–eastern Colorado. The assimilation method uses lightning as a proxy for the presence or absence of deep convection. During assimilation, lightning data are used to control the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection parameterization scheme. The KF scheme can be forced to try to produce convection where lightning indicated storms, and, conversely, can optionally be prevented from producing spurious convection where no lightning was observed. Up to 1 g kg−1 of water vapor may be added to the boundary layer when the KF convection is too weak. The method does not employ any lightning–rainfall relationships, but rather allows the KF scheme to generate heating and cooling rates from its modeled convection. The method could therefore easily be used for real-time assimilation of any source of lightning observations. For the case study, the lightning assimilation was successful in generating cold pools that were present in the surface observations at initialization of the forecast. The resulting forecast showed considerably more skill than the control forecast, especially in the first few hours as convection was triggered by the propagation of the cold pool boundary.

scholarly journals Ensemble forecasting with a stochastic convective parametrization based on equilibrium statistics

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 30457-30485 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Groenemeijer ◽  
G. C. Craig
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Total Variance ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The stochastic Plant-Craig scheme for deep convection was implemented in the COSMO mesoscale model and used for ensemble forecasting. Ensembles consisting of 100 48 h forecasts at 7 km horizontal resolution were generated for a 2000 × 2000 km domain covering central Europe. Forecasts were made for seven case studies and characterized by different large-scale meteorological environments. Each 100 member ensemble consisted of 10 groups of 10 members, with each group driven by boundary and initial conditions from a selected member from the global ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. The precipitation variability within and among these groups of members was computed, and it was found that the relative contribution to the ensemble variance introduced by the stochastic convection scheme was substantial, amounting to as much as 76% of the total variance in the ensemble in one of the studied cases. The impact of the scheme was not confined to the grid scale, and typically contributed 25–50% of the total variance even after the precipitation fields had been smoothed to a resolution of 35 km. The variability of precipitation introduced by the scheme was approximately proportional to the total amount of convection that occurred, while the variability due to large-scale conditions changed from case to case, being highest in cases exhibiting strong mid-tropospheric flow and pronounced meso- to synoptic scale vorticity extrema. The stochastic scheme was thus found to be an important source of variability in precipitation cases of weak large-scale flow lacking strong vorticity extrema, but high convective activity.

An Electrical and Polarimetric Analysis of the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (6) ◽  
pp. 2321-2344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica M. Griffin ◽  
Terry J. Schuur ◽  
Donald R. MacGorman ◽  
Matthew R. Kumjian ◽  
Alexandre O. Fierro
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Core Convection ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Mapping Array ◽  
Total Lightning ◽  
Abundant Data

Abstract While passing over central Oklahoma on 18–19 August 2007, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin unexpectedly reintensified and developed an eyelike feature that was clearly discernable in Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) imagery. During this brief reintensification period, Erin traversed a region of dense surface and remote sensing observation networks that provided abundant data of high spatial and temporal resolution. This study analyzes data from the polarimetric KOUN S-band radar, total lightning data from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array, and ground-flash lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network. Erin’s reintensification was atypical since it occurred well inland and was accompanied by stronger maximum sustained winds and gusts (25 and 37 m s−1, respectively) and lower minimum sea level pressure (1001.3 hPa) than while over water. Radar observations reveal several similarities to those documented in mature tropical cyclones over open water, including outward-sloping eyewall convection, near 0-dBZ reflectivities within the eye, and relatively large updraft velocities in the eyewall as inferred from single-Doppler winds and ZDR columns. Deep, electrified convection near the center of circulation preceded the formation of Erin’s eye, with maximum lightning activity occurring prior to and during reintensification. The results show that inner-core convection may have played a role in the reinvigoration of the storm.

scholarly journals Impact of Stratiform Rainband Heating on the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field in Idealized Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (8) ◽  
pp. 2443-2462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chau-Lam Yu ◽  
Anthony C. Didlake
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Secondary Eyewall Formation ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Storm Evolution ◽  
Spiral Rainbands ◽  
Diabatic Forcing

Abstract Using idealized simulations, we examine the storm-scale wind field response of a dry, hurricane-like vortex to prescribed stratiform heating profiles that mimic tropical cyclone (TC) spiral rainbands. These profiles were stationary with respect to the storm center to represent the diabatic forcing imposed by a quasi-stationary rainband complex. The first profile was typical of stratiform precipitation with heating above and cooling below the melting level. The vortex response included a mesoscale descending inflow and a midlevel tangential jet, consistent with previous studies. An additional response was an inward-spiraling low-level updraft radially inside the rainband heating. The second profile was a modified stratiform heating structure derived from observations and consisted of a diagonal dipole of heating and cooling. The same features were found with stronger magnitudes and larger vertical extents. The dynamics and implications of the forced low-level updraft were examined. This updraft was driven by buoyancy advection because of the stratiform-induced low-level cold pool. The stationary nature of the rainband diabatic forcing played an important role in modulating the required temperature and pressure anomalies to sustain this updraft. Simulations with moisture and full microphysics confirmed that this low-level updraft response was robust and capable of triggering sustained deep convection that could further impact the storm evolution, including having a potential role in secondary eyewall formation.

Morning breakup of cold pools in complex terrain

2008 ◽  
Vol 616 ◽  
pp. 99-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. PRINCEVAC ◽  
H. J. S. FERNANDO
Keyword(s):  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Local Flow ◽  
Morning Transition ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Dye Visualization

Under fair weather conditions, local flow patterns in areas of complex topography are driven by diurnal heating and cooling. If the topography is basin-shaped, downslope flows occurring at night accumulate (pool) in the basin valley to form a stable layer of cold air. During the morning transition, this cold pool is destroyed by the onset of turbulent convection and upslope flow. A series of laboratory experiments was conducted to identify mechanisms responsible for the breakup of cold pools. An idealized V-shaped tank filled with thermally stratified water and heated with an approximately uniform bottom heat flux was used. Temperature measurements and dye visualization were used for flow diagnostics. Mechanisms of cold pool destruction were identified and placed in the context of previously proposed mechanisms. A new mechanism was identified, wherein a dominant intrusion emanating from the upslope flow plays a dynamically important role in cold pool destruction. The results are expected to help develop subgrid parameterizations for meso-scale weather forecasting models, which are notorious for giving poor predictions during the morning transition period in complex terrain.

The 29 June 2000 Supercell Observed during STEPS. Part II: Lightning and Charge Structure

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (12) ◽  
pp. 4151-4177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle C. Wiens ◽  
Steven A. Rutledge ◽  
Sarah A. Tessendorf
Keyword(s):  
Positive Charge ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Structure Evolution ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Charge Structure ◽  
Flash Rate ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Mapping Array ◽  
Total Lightning ◽  
Mexico Tech

Abstract This second part of a two-part study examines the lightning and charge structure evolution of the 29 June 2000 tornadic supercell observed during the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS). Data from the National Lightning Detection Network and the New Mexico Tech Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are used to quantify the total and cloud-to-ground (CG) flash rates. Additionally, the LMA data are used to infer gross charge structure and to determine the origin locations and charge regions involved in the CG flashes. The total flash rate reached nearly 300 min−1 and was well correlated with radar-inferred updraft and graupel echo volumes. Intracloud flashes accounted for 95%–100% of the total lightning activity during any given minute. Nearly 90% of the CG flashes delivered a positive charge to ground (+CGs). The charge structure during the first 20 min of this storm consisted of a midlevel negative charge overlying lower positive charge with no evidence of an upper positive charge. The charge structure in the later (severe) phase was more complex but maintained what could be roughly described as an inverted tripole, dominated by a deep midlevel (5–9 km MSL) region of positive charge. The storm produced only two CG flashes (both positive) in the first 2 h of lightning activity, both of which occurred during a brief surge in updraft and hail production. Frequent +CG flashes began nearly coincident with dramatic increases in storm updraft, hail production, total flash rate, and the formation of an F1 tornado. The +CG flashes tended to cluster in or just downwind of the heaviest precipitation, which usually contained hail. The +CG flashes all originated between 5 and 9 km MSL, centered at 6.8 km (−10°C), and tapped LMA-inferred positive charge both in the precipitation core and (more often) in weaker reflectivity extending downwind. All but one of the −CG flashes originated from >9 km MSL and tended to strike near the precipitation core.

Cold pool collisions as a triggering mechanism of convection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustav Halvorsen ◽  
Bettina Meyer ◽  
Jan Härter
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Spatial Distance ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Radar Images ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Object Based ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Atmospheric Phenomena

<p>Cold pools are produced by rain evaporation from<br>convective thunderstorms and play an important role <br>in many atmospheric phenomena (e.g. transition to deep convection and convective self-aggregation). From observational<br>and numerical studies, it has been found that intersecting cold pools<br>increase the likelihood of triggering convection.<br>We test this hypothesis by combining observational<br>radar data from Darwin (Australia) with a simple conceptual model.</p><p>We identify precipitation objects in the radar data. It is assumed that each rain event produces a cold pool<br>that is initialized at the center of the precipitation cell. Cold pools are simulated with a stochastic surface growth model.<br>The spatial coordinate of each collision event is recorded. <br>Collectively these points take the shape of a Voronoi diagram. <br>According to our hypothesis, the probability of new rain events should decay with spatial distance to the Voronoi.</p><p>Our preliminary results suggest that rain events cluster in the<br>vicinity of the Voronoi with a higher frequency that one would expect if cold pool collisions did not stimulate convection. <br>To conclude, our findings suggest that dynamic collisions between cold pools increase the likelihood of convection in the surrounding area.<br>This work allows us to study the effect of cold pools from radar data, despite cold pools being invisible to the radar images,<br>using a simple object-based model of convective cold pools. </p>

The Formation of Moist Vortices and Tropical Cyclones in Idealized Simulations

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (9) ◽  
pp. 3499-3516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Thermodynamic Stabilization ◽  
Uniform Background ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The upscale aggregation of convection is used to understand the emergence of rotating, coherent midtropospheric structures and the subsequent process of tropical cyclone formation. The Cloud Model, version 1 (CM1), is integrated on an f plane with uniform sea surface temperature (SST) and prescribed uniform background flow. Deep convection is maintained by surface fluxes from an ocean with uniform surface temperature. Convection begins to organize simultaneously into moist and dry midtropospheric patches after 10 days. After 20 days, the patches begin to rotate on relatively small scales. Moist cyclonic vortices merge, eventually forming a single dominant vortex that subsequently forms a tropical cyclone on a realistic time scale of about 5 days. Radiation that interacts with clouds and water vapor aids in forming coherent rotating structures. Using the path to genesis provided by the aggregated solution, the relationship between thermodynamic changes within the vortex and changes in the character of convection prior to genesis is explored. Consistent with previous studies, the approach to saturation within the midtropospheric vortex accelerates the genesis process. A novel result is that, prior to genesis, downdrafts become widespread and somewhat stronger. The increased downdraft mass flux leads to stronger and larger surface cold pools. Shear–cold pool dynamics promote the organization of lower-tropospheric updrafts that spin up the surface vortex. It is inferred that the observed inconsistency between convective intensity and thermodynamic stabilization prior to genesis results from sampling limitations of the observations wherein the important cold pool gradients are unresolved.

scholarly journals The Formation of Wider and Deeper Clouds as a Result of Cold-Pool Dynamics

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (8) ◽  
pp. 2842-2858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Schlemmer ◽  
Cathy Hohenegger
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Gravity Current ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Cloud Development ◽  
Rain Formation

Abstract This study investigates how precipitation-driven cold pools aid the formation of wider clouds that are essential for a transition from shallow to deep convection. In connection with a temperature depression and a depletion of moisture inside developing cold pools, an accumulation of moisture in moist patches around the cold pools is observed. Convective clouds are formed on top of these moist patches. Larger moist patches form with time supporting more and larger clouds. Moreover, enhanced vertical lifting along the leading edges of the gravity current triggered by the cold pool is found. The interplay of moisture aggregation and lifting eventually promotes the formation of wider clouds that are less affected by entrainment and become deeper. These mechanisms are corroborated in a series of cloud-resolving model simulations representing different atmospheric environments. A positive feedback is observed in that, in an atmosphere in which cloud and rain formation is facilitated, stronger downdrafts will form. These stronger downdrafts lead to a stronger modification of the moisture field, which in turn favors further cloud development. This effect is not only observed in the transition phase but also active in prolonging the peak time of precipitation in the later stages of the diurnal cycle. These findings are used to propose a simple way for incorporating the effect of cold pools on cloud sizes and thereby entrainment rate into parameterization schemes for convection. Comparison of this parameterization to the cloud-resolving modeling output gives promising results.

scholarly journals Ensemble forecasting with a stochastic convective parametrization based on equilibrium statistics

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4555-4565 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Groenemeijer ◽  
G. C. Craig
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Total Variance ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The stochastic Plant-Craig scheme for deep convection was implemented in the COSMO mesoscale model and used for ensemble forecasting. Ensembles consisting of 100 48-h forecasts at 7 km horizontal resolution were generated for a 2000×2000 km domain covering central Europe. Forecasts were made for seven case studies characterized by different large-scale meteorological environments. Each 100 member ensemble consisted of 10 groups of 10 members, with each group driven by boundary and initial conditions from a selected member from the global ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. The precipitation variability within and among these groups of members was computed, and it was found that the relative contribution to the ensemble variance introduced by the stochastic convection scheme was substantial, amounting to as much as 76% of the total variance in the ensemble in one of the studied cases. The impact of the scheme was not confined to the grid scale, and typically contributed 25–50% of the total variance even after the precipitation fields had been smoothed to a resolution of 35 km. The variability of precipitation introduced by the scheme was approximately proportional to the total amount of convection that occurred, while the variability due to large-scale conditions changed from case to case, being highest in cases exhibiting strong mid-tropospheric flow and pronounced meso- to synoptic scale vorticity extrema. The stochastic scheme was thus found to be an important source of variability in precipitation cases of weak large-scale flow lacking strong vorticity extrema, but high convective activity.

scholarly journals An Objective Detection Method for Convective Cold Pool Events and Its Application to Northern Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (12) ◽  
pp. 5055-5072 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Redl ◽  
Andreas H. Fink ◽  
Peter Knippertz
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Spatial Density ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Automated Method ◽  
Atlas Mountains ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Satellite Microwave ◽  
Objective Detection ◽  
Short Time

Abstract Convective cold pool events in (semi) arid areas have significant impacts on their environment. They reach horizontal extents of up to several hundred kilometers and the associated turbulence and shear can cause dust emissions and threaten aviation safety. Furthermore, cold pools play a major role in the organization of deep convection and in horizontal moisture transport. They have even been proposed to have impacts on larger-scale monsoon dynamics. Cold pools are not well represented in models using a convective parameterization. To test and improve these models, it is necessary to reliably detect cold pool occurrence from standard observational data. Former studies, however, focused on single cases or short time periods. Here, an objective and automated method for the generation of multiyear climatologies of cold-pool events is presented. The algorithm combines standard surface observations with satellite microwave data. Representativeness of stations and influence of their spatial density are addressed by comparison to a satellite-only climatology. Applying this algorithm to data from automatic weather stations and manned synoptic stations in and south of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco and Algeria reveals the frequent occurrence of cold pool events in this region. On the order of six cold-pool events per month are detected from May to September when the Saharan heat low is in its northernmost position. The events tend to cluster into several-days-long convectively active periods, often with strong events on consecutive days. The algorithm is flexible enough to be applied in comparable regions around the world.

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