scholarly journals Weather Forecast Use for Winter Recreation*

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Rutty ◽  
Jean Andrey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mobile Devices ◽  
General Public ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Empirical Basis ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Winter Recreation ◽  
Context Specific

Abstract Recent studies have begun to address the importance of weather information for leisure activities. This paper contributes to the understanding of how weather information is sourced, perceived, and used for the discretionary and weather-dependent winter activities of skiing, snowboarding, and snowmobiling. A survey of 1948 Ontario (Canada) skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers is the empirical basis for the paper, providing insights into how winter recreationists are both similar to and different from the general public with respect to weather information. Results show that virtually all (≥97%) skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers use weather forecasts when planning an outing, which are primarily (≥95%) sourced through Internet and mobile devices. Skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers are also highly attentive to rain and freezing rain variables in the forecast, as it negatively affects participation. The results also demonstrate the importance of forecast use for planning travel to snow resorts and snowmobile trails, with poor road conditions likely to result in a postponed or cancelled trip. These findings underscore the differing weather needs of subpopulations, with the need for continued research to examine variations among weather forecast users for context specific decision making.

scholarly journals Exploring Variations in People’s Sources, Uses, and Perceptions of Weather Forecasts

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 177-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Perceived Importance

Abstract Past research has shown that individuals vary in their attitudes and behaviors regarding weather forecast information. To deepen knowledge about these variations, this article explores 1) patterns in people’s sources, uses, and perceptions of everyday weather forecasts; and 2) relationships among people’s sources, uses, and perceptions of forecasts, their personal characteristics, and their experiences with weather and weather forecasts. It does so by performing factor and regression analysis on data from a nationwide survey of the U.S. public, combined with other data. Forecast uses factored into planning for leisure activities and for work/school-related activities, while knowing what the weather will be like and planning how to dress remained separate. Forecast parameters factored into importance of precipitation parameters and of temperature-related parameters, suggesting that these represent conceptually different constructs. Regression analysis showed that the primary drivers for how often people obtain forecasts are what they use forecasts for and their perceived importance of and confidence in forecast information. People’s forecast uses are explained in large part by their frequency of obtaining forecasts and their perceived importance of temperature-related and precipitation forecast information. This suggests that that individuals’ frequency of obtaining forecasts, forecast use, and importance of forecast parameters are closely interrelated. Sociodemographic characteristics and, to a lesser extent, weather-related experience also influence some aspects of people’s forecast sources, uses, and perceptions. These findings continue to build understanding of variations among weather forecast users, which can help weather information providers improve communication of forecasts to better meet users’ needs.

scholarly journals The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth M. Stephens ◽  
David J. Spiegelhalter ◽  
Ken Mylne ◽  
Mark Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Online Game ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Presentation Formats ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Mass Participation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To inform the way probabilistic forecasts would be displayed on their website, the UK Met Office ran an online game as a mass participation experiment to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in rainfall and temperature forecasts, and to widen public engagement in uncertainty in weather forecasting. The game used a hypothetical “ice-cream seller” scenario and a randomized structure to test decision-making ability using different methods of representing uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being “lucky” or “unlucky” when the most likely forecast scenario did not occur. Data were collected on participant age, gender, educational attainment, and previous experience of environmental modelling. The large number of participants (n>8000) that played the game has led to the collation of a unique large dataset with which to compare the impact on the decision-making ability of different weather forecast presentation formats. This analysis demonstrates that within the game the provision of information regarding forecast uncertainty greatly improved decision-making ability and did not cause confusion in situations where providing the uncertainty added no further information.

scholarly journals Eye Tracking: Evaluating the Impact of Gesturing during Televised Weather Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Drost ◽  
Jay Trobec ◽  
Christy Steffke ◽  
Julie Libarkin
Keyword(s):  
Eye Tracking ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Physical Gestures ◽  
Areas Of Interest ◽  
The Second Variation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Televised media is one of the most frequently accessed sources of weather information. The local weathercaster is the link between weather information and the public, and as such weathercaster characteristics, from vocal cadence to physical appearance, can impact viewer understanding. This study considers the role of weathercaster gesturing on viewer attention during weather forecasts. Two variations of a typical weather forecast were viewed by a total of 36 students during an eye tracking session. The first forecast variation contained physical gestures toward forecast text by the newscaster (Gesture condition) while the second variation contained minimal gesturing (No Gesture condition). Following each eye tracking session, students completed a retention survey related to the forecast. These data were used to identify areas of interest to which students attended during viewing and to ascertain how well the forecast was retained across the gesturing treatments. Study results suggest that the weathercaster’s gesturing during forecasts may have induced confusion among participants, but did not affect retention of the weather information investigated in the study. Gesturing diverted attention from other areas of interest within the forecast by encouraging participants to focus on the weathercaster’s hands. This study indicates that minor modifications to weathercaster behavior can produce significant changes in viewer behavior.

Weather forecasting and communication in the upper Great Ruaha catchment area.

2020 ◽  
pp. 217-234
Author(s):  
Anselm R. Mwajombe ◽  
Godwin A. Lema
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Local Environment ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
End Users ◽  
Oral Traditions ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Effective Dissemination

Abstract Effective weather forecast dissemination depends on how effective dissemination channels are in informing decision making for improved management of water resources and livelihood activities, which depend on water resources in catchment areas. In this chapter, the effectiveness of the channels for weather forecast dissemination is assessed in terms of magnitude of awareness creation and versatility to end users. Our findings show that both traditional and conventional channels of weather forecasting and communication can be used to create awareness to end users in various parts of the country. For local communities, traditional weather forecasting and communicating were contingent on indigenous knowledge acquired through interaction with the local environment. Such information was accessed through indicators or signs that entail plant phenology, astronomical and meteorological events as well as mammals' behaviour. Conventional forecasting is communicated via modern communication technologies including radio, television, the Internet and posted letters. Communication of traditional weather forecasting is mainly through oral traditions. Results from our respondents revealed that 40% received weather forecasts through traditional channels, 11% through modern channels and 49% through modern and traditional channels. The majority of respondents said that weather forecasts from modern sources were not reliable to inform the decision-making process when compared with traditional sources. The study recommends synchronizing modern and traditional channels for effective weather forecast delivery.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Logic as A Method of Decision Making in Automatic Watering Plants

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
T. W. Matha ◽  
Agung Nugroho Jati ◽  
F. Azmi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Control System ◽  
Automatic Control ◽  
Control Systems ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Automatic Control Systems ◽  
Weather Information

In this era of technology, the use of automatic control systems can provide some benefits in terms of efficiency, accuracy, and safety compared to that of manual workmanship. This study tries to create a control system that can perform automatic plant watering system to help us in watering plants. In this study, weather forecast and weather shield are integrated with microcontroller as to gather weather information in the area around the plants. The information is then compared for decision making in automatic watering. This study is derived from the growing popularity of the hobby to grow plants in community. However, the constraint of time and distance in growing plants becomes one of the problems for people who are busy with their activities so that they do not have time for watering plants.

scholarly journals Assessing the role of short-term weather forecasts in fire manager tactical decision-making: a choice experiment

Fire Ecology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire E. Rapp ◽  
Robyn S. Wilson ◽  
Eric L. Toman ◽  
W. Matt Jolly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
In Fire

Abstract Background Weather plays an integral role in fire management due to the direct and indirect effects it has on fire behavior. However, fire managers may not use all information available to them during the decision-making process, instead utilizing mental shortcuts that can bias decision-making. Thus, it is important to evaluate if (and how) fire managers use information like weather forecasts when making tactical decisions. We explore USDA Forest Service fire manager confidence in relative humidity, precipitation, and wind models. We then use a choice experiment where key weather attributes were varied to explore how sensitive fire managers were to changes in specific weather variables when choosing to directly or indirectly attack a fire that is transitioning to extended attack. Results Respondents were less confident in the accuracy of wind and precipitation forecasts than relative humidity or weather forecasts more generally. The influence of weather information on the decision depended on the framing used in the choice experiment; specifically, whether respondents were told the initial strategy had been to directly or indirectly attack the fire. Across conditions, fire managers generally preferred to indirectly attack the fire. Decisions about the tactics to apply going forward were more sensitive to time in season when the fire was occurring and wind and precipitation forecasts than to other attributes. Conclusions The results have implications for the design of decision support tools developed to support fire management. Results suggest how fire managers’ use of fire weather information to evaluate forecast conditions and adjust future management decisions may vary depending on the management decision already in place. If fire weather-based decision support tools are to support the use of the best available information to make fire management decisions, careful attention may be needed to debias any effect of prior decisions. For example, decision support tools may encourage users to “consider the opposite,” i.e., consider if they would react differently if different initial decision with similar conditions were in place. The results also highlight the potential importance of either improving wind and precipitation forecast models or improving confidence in existing models.

scholarly journals A Behavioral Decision Model Based on Fuzzy Targets in Decision Making Using Weather Information

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 435-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akio Hiramatsu ◽  
◽  
Van-Nam Huynh ◽  
Yoshiteru Nakamori
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Behavioral Decision ◽  
Psychological Features ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Personal Philosophy ◽  
Fuzzy Target

Due to inevitable uncertainty in weather forecasts, many decision problems influenced by weather information have been formulated for decision making in uncertain situations. The fuzzy target-based decision making model we propose assumes that the decision maker assesses a fuzzy target expressing an aspiration, then selects the decision maximizing the possibility of attaining this target aspiration before making a decision. We then show that the decision maker's different behavior about the aspiration leads to different decisions depending on the decision maker's personal philosophy or experience. This behavioral analysis provides an interpretation for influencing psychological features of the decision maker in decision making and introduces an interesting link to attitudes towards risk by means of utility function.

scholarly journals The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth M. Stephens ◽  
David J. Spiegelhalter ◽  
Ken Mylne ◽  
Mark Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Online Game ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Presentation Formats ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Mass Participation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To inform the way probabilistic forecasts would be displayed on their website the UK Met Office ran an online game as a mass participation experiment to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in rainfall and temperature forecasts, and to widen public engagement in uncertainty in weather forecasting. The game used a hypothetical ice-cream seller scenario and a randomised structure to test decision-making ability using different methods of representing uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being lucky or unlucky when the most likely forecast scenario did not occur. Data were collected on participant age, gender, educational attainment and previous experience of environmental modelling. The large number of participants (n > 8000) that played the game has led to the collation of a unique large dataset with which to compare the impact on decision-making ability of different weather forecast presentation formats. This analysis demonstrates that within the game the provision of information regarding forecast uncertainty greatly improved decision-making ability, and did not cause confusion in situations where providing the uncertainty added no further information.

scholarly journals Improving Visual Communication of Weather Forecasts with Rhetoric

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 557-563 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Lambrecht ◽  
B. J. Hatchett ◽  
L. C. Walsh ◽  
M. Collins ◽  
Z. Tolby
Keyword(s):  
Visual Communication ◽  
Public Involvement ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Community Attitudes ◽  
Hazard Communication ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Communication Techniques ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
Complex Solutions

Abstract Communicating weather-related hazards to the public can be a challenge for meteorologists, particularly given the nature of confidence levels in forecasting science. Despite these challenges, communicating high-impact weather remains extremely important because it has implications for the safety, health, and resilience of impacted communities. Because the dynamics of this issue are complex, solutions to weather hazard communication benefit from interdisciplinary solutions and multiple types of expertise. Our work demonstrates how rhetoric, a foundational communication discipline, can be applied to improving weather forecast communication. Applying a rhetorical framework allows the identification of communication strategies that not only invite public involvement but encourage users to act as conduits for weather information distribution. As a result, trust can be developed between the National Weather Service (NWS) and public audiences. The initial results support the hypothesis that effective public communication from NWS messaging can be improved by incorporating the concept of “commonplaces,” which are the expressions of beliefs, values, and norms that construct community attitudes toward weather or natural hazard forecasts, into visual communication techniques such as NWS Weather Stories.

Weather on the Go: An Assessment of Smartphone Mobile Weather Application Use among College Students

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (11) ◽  
pp. 2245-2257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh D. Phan ◽  
Burrell E. Montz ◽  
Scott Curtis ◽  
Thomas M. Rickenbach
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
College Students ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Device Technology

AbstractMillions of people in the United States regularly acquire information from weather forecasts for a wide variety of reasons. The rapid growth in mobile device technology has created a convenient means for people to retrieve this data, and in recent years, mobile weather applications (MWAs) have quickly gained popularity. Research on weather sources, however, has been unable to sufficiently capture the importance of this form of information gathering. As use of these apps continues to grow, it is important to gain insight on the usefulness of MWAs to consumers. To better examine MWA preferences and behaviors relating to acquired weather information, a survey of 308 undergraduate students from three different universities throughout the southeast United States was undertaken. Analyses of the survey showed that smartphone MWAs are the primary weather forecast source among college students. Additionally, MWA users tend to seek short-term forecast information, like the hourly forecast, from their apps. Results also provide insight into daily MWA use by college students as well as perceptions of and preferential choices for specific MWA features and designs. The information gathered from this study will allow other researchers to better evaluate and understand the changing landscape of weather information acquisition and how this relates to the uses, perceptions, and values people garner from forecasts. Organizations that provide weather forecasts have an ever-growing arsenal of resources to disseminate information, making research of this topic extremely valuable for future development of weather communication technology.

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