scholarly journals The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth M. Stephens ◽  
David J. Spiegelhalter ◽  
Ken Mylne ◽  
Mark Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Online Game ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Presentation Formats ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Mass Participation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To inform the way probabilistic forecasts would be displayed on their website, the UK Met Office ran an online game as a mass participation experiment to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in rainfall and temperature forecasts, and to widen public engagement in uncertainty in weather forecasting. The game used a hypothetical “ice-cream seller” scenario and a randomized structure to test decision-making ability using different methods of representing uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being “lucky” or “unlucky” when the most likely forecast scenario did not occur. Data were collected on participant age, gender, educational attainment, and previous experience of environmental modelling. The large number of participants (n>8000) that played the game has led to the collation of a unique large dataset with which to compare the impact on the decision-making ability of different weather forecast presentation formats. This analysis demonstrates that within the game the provision of information regarding forecast uncertainty greatly improved decision-making ability and did not cause confusion in situations where providing the uncertainty added no further information.

scholarly journals The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth M. Stephens ◽  
David J. Spiegelhalter ◽  
Ken Mylne ◽  
Mark Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Online Game ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Presentation Formats ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Mass Participation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To inform the way probabilistic forecasts would be displayed on their website the UK Met Office ran an online game as a mass participation experiment to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in rainfall and temperature forecasts, and to widen public engagement in uncertainty in weather forecasting. The game used a hypothetical ice-cream seller scenario and a randomised structure to test decision-making ability using different methods of representing uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being lucky or unlucky when the most likely forecast scenario did not occur. Data were collected on participant age, gender, educational attainment and previous experience of environmental modelling. The large number of participants (n > 8000) that played the game has led to the collation of a unique large dataset with which to compare the impact on decision-making ability of different weather forecast presentation formats. This analysis demonstrates that within the game the provision of information regarding forecast uncertainty greatly improved decision-making ability, and did not cause confusion in situations where providing the uncertainty added no further information.

Weather forecasting and communication in the upper Great Ruaha catchment area.

2020 ◽  
pp. 217-234
Author(s):  
Anselm R. Mwajombe ◽  
Godwin A. Lema
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Local Environment ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
End Users ◽  
Oral Traditions ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Effective Dissemination

Abstract Effective weather forecast dissemination depends on how effective dissemination channels are in informing decision making for improved management of water resources and livelihood activities, which depend on water resources in catchment areas. In this chapter, the effectiveness of the channels for weather forecast dissemination is assessed in terms of magnitude of awareness creation and versatility to end users. Our findings show that both traditional and conventional channels of weather forecasting and communication can be used to create awareness to end users in various parts of the country. For local communities, traditional weather forecasting and communicating were contingent on indigenous knowledge acquired through interaction with the local environment. Such information was accessed through indicators or signs that entail plant phenology, astronomical and meteorological events as well as mammals' behaviour. Conventional forecasting is communicated via modern communication technologies including radio, television, the Internet and posted letters. Communication of traditional weather forecasting is mainly through oral traditions. Results from our respondents revealed that 40% received weather forecasts through traditional channels, 11% through modern channels and 49% through modern and traditional channels. The majority of respondents said that weather forecasts from modern sources were not reliable to inform the decision-making process when compared with traditional sources. The study recommends synchronizing modern and traditional channels for effective weather forecast delivery.

D Minus Months: Strategic Planning for Weather-Sensitive Decisions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva D. Regnier ◽  
Joel W. Feldmeier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Sequential Decisions ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Current State ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Made In

General Eisenhower’s decisions to postpone and, one day later, to launch the “D-Day” invasion of Normandy are a gripping illustration of sequential decisions under uncertainty, suitable for any introductory decision analysis class. They’re also the archetypal example of weather-sensitive decision making using a forecast. This paper develops a framework for analyzing weather-sensitive decisions with a focus on the less-familiar strategic decisions that determine how forecasts are produced and what operational alternatives are available so that decision makers can extract value from forecasts. We tell the story of the decisions made in the months before D-Day regarding how to set up the forecasting process and the myriad decisions implicating nation-level resources that prepared Allied forces not just to invade, but to hold open that decision until the last possible hour so that Eisenhower and his staff could use the critical forecasts. Finally, we overview the current state of the weather-forecasting enterprise, the current challenges of interest to decision analysts, and what this means for decision analysts seeking opportunities to help the weather enterprise improve forecasts and to help operational decision makers extract more value from modern weather forecasts.

scholarly journals Defending the media from itself: Reforming media regulations to minimise the impact of misinformation

European View ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-219
Author(s):  
Juha-Pekka Nurvala ◽  
Amelia Buckell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Search Engines ◽  
Behavioural Changes ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

This article argues that media regulations on correcting incorrect articles are in dire need of reform due to technological and behavioural changes. By using case studies from the UK, the authors demonstrate the huge difference between the number of people who were reached by the original article before the Independent Press Standards Organisation (the regulator in the UK) ruled it incorrect and the number reached by the correction or corrected article. The authors argue that media regulations must be reformed to ensure that corrections reach the same people as the original incorrect article to avoid misinformation impacting peoples’ decision-making, and that reforms must include social media platforms and search engines.

Space Weather in the UK: Updates on the UK Strategy, Investment, and International Engagements

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario M. Bisi ◽  
Mark Gibbs ◽  
Mike A. Hapgood ◽  
Mike Willis ◽  
Richard A. Harrison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
National Level ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Space Environment ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Weather Impacts

<p>For the UK, the potential impacts from severe space weather (and everyday space weather) are considered of a high importance and hence the UK Government has included “Severe Space Weather” on its National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies since 2011.  This is not just considering direct impacts on UK infrastructures, but also impacts to key partner/trading/neighbouring nations.  This has led to a long series of national and international engagements and strategic developments both between UK agencies/entities and with international agencies/organisations (such as ESA, NOAA, NASA, COSPAR, ISES, ICAO, WMO, and UN COPUOS).  On top of this, the UK has undertaken a series of wide-ranging investigations to mitigate space-weather impacts at the national level including the ongoing development of a national Space Weather Strategy – where the UK looks to experts across all sectors to feed into its development.</p><p> </p><p>An essential aspect of trying to mitigate space-weather impacts on the UK is the need for independent UK space-weather forecast capability in collaboration with the other 24/7 space-weather forecasting institutes around the World.  This UK capability allows for direct advice to government on all things space weather, particularly on what to do when an impending event is expected and throughout its duration and recovery.  Hence, he setting up of a UK staffed 24/7 space-weather forecasting centre at the Met Office alongside the formation of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) of experts were undertaken to provide the necessary advice to government.</p><p> </p><p>The UK is currently committing a large amount of money both to dedicated UK-based and ESA-based space weather programmes as well as through traditional science research funding channels.  This includes the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (SPF) Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk (SWIMMR) programme and the ESA Space Safety Programme.  The UK has also taken a lead on several other space-/ground-based space-weather endeavours that are proving highly complementary to current UK and global capabilities.</p><p> </p><p>In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the above along with any outline of the UK Space Weather Strategy open to the public at the time of the EGU 2020 Meeting.</p>

Weather Forecasting by Humans—Heuristics and Decision Making

2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1115-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. Doswell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Psychology ◽  
Multidisciplinary Approach ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Judgment And Decision Making ◽  
Human Cognition ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasters ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Considerable Insight

Abstract The decision-making literature contains considerable information about how humans approach tasks involving uncertainty using heuristics. Although there is some reason to believe that weather forecasters are not identical in all respects to the typical subjects used in judgment and decision-making studies, there also is evidence that weather forecasters are not so different that the existing understanding of human cognition as it relates to making decisions is entirely inapplicable to weather forecasters. Accordingly, some aspects of cognition and decision making are reviewed and considered in terms of how they apply to human weather forecasters, including biases introduced by heuristics. Considerable insight into human forecasting could be gained by applying available studies of the cognitive psychology of decision making. What few studies exist that have used weather forecasters as subjects suggest that further work might well be productive in terms of helping to guide the improvement of weather forecasts by humans. It is concluded that a multidisciplinary approach, involving disciplines outside of meteorology, needs to be developed and supported if there is to be a future role for humans in forecasting the weather.

scholarly journals Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 1: The visualization tool Met.3D (version 1.0)

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 2329-2353 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rautenhaus ◽  
M. Kern ◽  
A. Schäfler ◽  
R. Westermann
Keyword(s):  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Spatial Perception ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Research And Teaching ◽  
Grid Topology ◽  
Ensemble Visualization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We present "Met.3D", a new open-source tool for the interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns; however, it is applicable to further forecasting, research and teaching activities. Our work approaches challenging topics related to the visual analysis of numerical atmospheric model output – 3-D visualization, ensemble visualization and how both can be used in a meaningful way suited to weather forecasting. Met.3D builds a bridge from proven 2-D visualization methods commonly used in meteorology to 3-D visualization by combining both visualization types in a 3-D context. We address the issue of spatial perception in the 3-D view and present approaches to using the ensemble to allow the user to assess forecast uncertainty. Interactivity is key to our approach. Met.3D uses modern graphics technology to achieve interactive visualization on standard consumer hardware. The tool supports forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and can operate directly on ECMWF hybrid sigma-pressure level grids. We describe the employed visualization algorithms, and analyse the impact of the ECMWF grid topology on computing 3-D ensemble statistical quantities. Our techniques are demonstrated with examples from the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign.

scholarly journals The communicative process of weather forecasts issued in the probabilistic form

2009 ◽  
Vol 08 (01) ◽  
pp. A03
Author(s):  
Alessio Raimondi
Keyword(s):  
Human Activities ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Communicative Process ◽  
Hurricane Charley ◽  
Informative Content ◽  
Effective Use

One of the main purposes of weather forecasting is that of protecting weather-sensitive human activities. Forecasts issued in the probabilistic form have a higher informative content, as opposed to deterministic one, since they bear information that give also a measure of their own uncertainty. However, in order to make an appropriate and effective use of this kind of forecasts in an operational setting, communication becomes significatively relevant.The present paper, after having briefly examined the weather forecasts concerning Hurricane Charley (August 2004), tackles the issue of the communicative process in detail.The bottom line of this study is that for the weather forecast to achieve its best predictive potential, an in-depth analysis of communication issues is necessary.

Mobile Decision Support for Time-Critical Decision Making

2011 ◽  
pp. 638-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frada Burstein ◽  
J. Cowie
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Expert Advice ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Wide Availability ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Time Critical ◽  
Available Information

The wide availability of advanced information and communication technology has made it possible for users to expect a much wider access to decision support. Since the context of decision making is not necessarily restricted to the office desktop, decision support facilities have to be provided through access to technology anywhere, anytime, and through a variety of mediums. The spread of e-services and wireless devices has increased accessibility to data, and in turn, influenced the way in which users make decisions while on the move, especially in time-critical situations. For example, on site decision support for fire weather forecasting during bushfires can include real-time evaluation of quality of local fire weather forecast in terms of accuracy and reliability. Such decision support can include simulated scenarios indicating the probability of fire spreading over nearby areas that rely on data collected locally at the scene and broader data from the regional and national offices. Decision Support Systems (DSS) available on mobile devices, which triage nurses can rely on for immediate, expert advice based on available information, can minimise delay in actions and errors in triage at emergency departments (Cowie & Godley, 2006).

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