scholarly journals The Experimental Warning Program of NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Kristin M. Calhoun ◽  
Kodi L. Berry ◽  
Darrel M. Kingfield ◽  
Tiffany Meyer ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Physical Space ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Research Technology ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Technology And Communication ◽  
Hazardous Weather

AbstractNOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) is a physical space and research framework to foster collaboration and evaluate emerging tools, technology, and products for NWS operations. The HWT’s Experimental Warning Program (EWP) focuses on research, technology, and communication that may improve severe and hazardous weather warnings and societal response. The EWP was established with three fundamental hypotheses: 1) collaboration with operational meteorologists increases the speed of the transition process and rate of adoption of beneficial applications and technology, 2) the transition of knowledge between research and operations benefits both the research and operational communities, and 3) including end-users in experiments generates outcomes that are more reliable and useful for society. The EWP is designed to mimic the operations of any NWS Forecast Office, providing the opportunity for experiments to leverage live and archived severe weather activity anywhere in the United States. During the first decade of activity in the EWP, 15 experiments covered topics including: new radar and satellite applications, storm-scale numerical models and data assimilation, total lightning use in severe weather forecasting, and multiple social science and end-user topics. The experiments range from exploratory and conceptual research to more controlled experimental design to establish statistical patterns and causal relationships. The EWP brought more than 400 NWS forecasters, 60 emergency managers, and 30 broadcast meteorologists to the HWT to participate in live demonstrations, archive events, and data-denial experiments influencing today’s operational warning environment and shaping the future of warning research, technology, and communication for years to come.

scholarly journals Evaluation of WRF Model Output for Severe Weather Forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 408-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Coniglio ◽  
Kimberly L. Elmore ◽  
John S. Kain ◽  
Steven J. Weiss ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Deterministic Framework ◽  
Hazardous Weather

Abstract This study assesses forecasts of the preconvective and near-storm environments from the convection-allowing models run for the 2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) spring experiment. Evaluating the performance of convection-allowing models (CAMs) is important for encouraging their appropriate use and development for both research and operations. Systematic errors in the CAM forecasts included a cold bias in mean 2-m and 850-hPa temperatures over most of the United States and smaller than observed vertical wind shear and 850-hPa moisture over the high plains. The placement of airmass boundaries was similar in forecasts from the CAMs and the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model that provided the initial and boundary conditions. This correspondence contributed to similar characteristics for spatial and temporal mean error patterns. However, substantial errors were found in the CAM forecasts away from airmass boundaries. The result is that the deterministic CAMs do not predict the environment as well as the NAM. It is suggested that parameterized processes used at convection-allowing grid lengths, particularly in the boundary layer, may be contributing to these errors. It is also shown that mean forecasts from an ensemble of CAMs were substantially more accurate than forecasts from deterministic CAMs. If the improvement seen in the CAM forecasts when going from a deterministic framework to an ensemble framework is comparable to improvements in mesoscale model forecasts when going from a deterministic to an ensemble framework, then an ensemble of mesoscale model forecasts could predict the environment even better than an ensemble of CAMs. Therefore, it is suggested that the combination of mesoscale (convection parameterizing) and CAM configurations is an appropriate avenue to explore for optimizing the use of limited computer resources for severe weather forecasting applications.

When Uncertainty is Certain: A Nuanced Trust between Emergency Managers and Forecast Information in the Southeastern United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-146
Author(s):  
Rachael N. Cross ◽  
Daphne S. LaDue
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Critical Incident ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Exact Science ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Management Personnel ◽  
Emergency Managers

AbstractWeather forecasting is not an exact science, and, in regions near the southern end of the Appalachian Mountains, the vastly different types of topography and frequency of rapidly forming storms can result in high uncertainty in severe weather forecasts. NOAA created its VORTEX-Southeast (SE) research program to tackle these unique challenges and integrate them with social science research to increase the survivability of southeastern U.S. weather. As part of VORTEX-SE, this study focused on the severe weather preparation and decision-making of emergency management and, in particular, how uncertainty in severe weather forecasts impacted the relationship between emergency managers (EMs) and weather providers. We conducted in-depth, critical incident background interviews with 35 emergency management personnel across 14 counties. An inductive, data-driven analysis approach revealed several factors contributing to an added layer of practical uncertainty beyond the meteorological forecast uncertainty that impacted and helped to explain the nature of trust in the EM–National Weather Service (NWS) relationship. No- or short-notice events, null events, gaps in information, and differences in perspectives when compared with weather forecasters have led emergency managers to modify their procedures in ways that position them to adapt quickly to unexpected changes in the forecast. The need to do so creates a complex, nuanced trust between these groups. This paper explains how EMs developed a nuanced trust of forecast information, how that trust is a recognition of the inherent uncertainty in severe weather forecasts, and how to strengthen the NWS–EM relationship.

Strategies to improve implementation of adaptive management practices for restoration in coastal Louisiana

Shore & Beach ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 83-91
Author(s):  
Tim Carruthers ◽  
Richard Raynie ◽  
Alyssa Dausman ◽  
Syed Khalil
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Agency ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Coastal Restoration ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Coastal Louisiana ◽  
Restoration Effort

Natural resources of coastal Louisiana support the economies of Louisiana and the whole of the United States. However, future conditions of coastal Louisiana are highly uncertain due to the dynamic processes of the Mississippi River delta, unpredictable storm events, subsidence, sea level rise, increasing temperatures, and extensive historic management actions that have altered natural coastal processes. To address these concerns, a centralized state agency was formed to coordinate coastal protection and restoration effort, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA). This promoted knowledge centralization and supported informal adaptive management for restoration efforts, at that time mostly funded through the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act (CWPPRA). Since the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill in 2010 and the subsequent settlement, the majority of restoration funding for the next 15 years will come through one of the DWH mechanisms; Natural Resource and Damage Assessment (NRDA), the RESTORE Council, or National Fish and Wildlife Foundation –Gulf Environmental Benefit Fund (NFWF-GEBF). This has greatly increased restoration effort and increased governance complexity associated with project funding, implementation, and reporting. As a result, there is enhanced impetus to formalize and unify adaptive management processes for coastal restoration in Louisiana. Through synthesis of input from local coastal managers, historical and current processes for project and programmatic implementation and adaptive management were summarized. Key gaps and needs to specifically increase implementation of adaptive management within the Louisiana coastal restoration community were identified and developed into eight tangible and specific recommendations. These were to streamline governance through increased coordination amongst implementing entities, develop a discoverable and practical lessons learned and decision database, coordinate ecosystem reporting, identify commonality of restoration goals, develop a common cross-agency adaptive management handbook for all personnel, improve communication (both in-reach and outreach), have a common repository and clearing house for numerical models used for restoration planning and assessment, and expand approaches for two-way stakeholder engagement throughout the restoration process. A common vision and maximizing synergies between entities can improve adaptive management implementation to maximize ecosystem and community benefits of restoration effort in coastal Louisiana. This work adds to current knowledge by providing specific strategies and recommendations, based upon extensive engagement with restoration practitioners from multiple state and federal agencies. Addressing these practitioner-identified gaps and needs will improve engagement in adaptive management in coastal Louisiana, a large geographic area with high restoration implementation within a complex governance framework.

Evaluation of the Technological Potential of Grape Peels Through Patent Document Analysis: Agro-industrial Waste with Biotechnological Potential

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Euzelia Lima de Souza ◽  
Ingrid Lessa Leal ◽  
Marcelo Andres Umsza-Guez ◽  
Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado
Keyword(s):  
Waste Product ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Natural Form ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Research Technology ◽  
Technological Potential ◽  
Promising Area ◽  
Patent Documents ◽  
Grape Peel

Background: Grape (Vitis viniferaL.) is consumed by old world populations in its natural form and is used to produce wine or juice. Currently, China is the largest grape producer in the world. The red grapes stand out because of their phytochemical composition, more specifically their high resveratrol levels. Resveratrol is a compound that has a number of different beneficial effects on health and is mainly used in the food and cosmetic industries. Grape peel is a waste product and new strategies based on nanotechnology can minimize its environmental impact and add value to this residue. Objectives: The first objective of this study was to evaluate the technological potential of utilizing grape peel by researching and analyzing information extracted from patent documents filed worldwide in order to identify the main countries that hold the research technology, the main depositors and inventors, and the main areas of application. The second aim was to research and investigate grape peel products that have been created using nanotechnology. Methods: An analysis of all patented documents related to grape peel processes, products, or different industrial applications that may use nanotechnology was carried out. This was achieved by undertaking a Derwent Innovation Index (DII) database search. Results: A total of 752 patent documents were identified in the surveyed area. These were assessed for depositor country of origin, type of depositor, inventors, evolution of deposits over time, and areas of application. Only 6% of the total represented products and processes in the nanotechnology area. There was a growth in the number of patent filings from 2015, which showed that the researched area is a current and developing technology with new application possibilities. The main depositing countries were China, the United States, and Japan, which dominate the researched technology. The identified documents discussed using grape peel to develop new food, medical and dental products. Conclusion: Over the last few years, different approaches have been suggested for the production of nanoproducts based on grape peel. The results from this study showed that although incipient, nanotechnology is a promising area of research that can be explored by universities and companies because the products could have significant positive characteristics and, even though they are made out of a byproduct, have great application potential.

scholarly journals Male autistic youth experiences of belonging in integrated physical education

Autism ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 136236132110186
Author(s):  
Justin A Haegele ◽  
Anthony J Maher
Keyword(s):  
Physical Education ◽  
Peer Relationships ◽  
Peer Interactions ◽  
Physical Space ◽  
The United States ◽  
Educational Needs ◽  
Subjective Experiences ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Autistic People ◽  
Locker Room

The study examined the subjective experiences of autistic youth regarding the role of peer interactions and relationships in feelings of belonging in integrated physical education classes. The term integrated is used to describe a setting in which all students, regardless of educational needs, are educated in the same physical space. Eight autistic youth (all male, aged 13–18 years) who had received most of their physical education in integrated classes acted as participants. Semi-structured interviews were used to generate qualitative data, which were analyzed using a reflexive thematic approach. Findings are presented in three themes: (a) bullying can lead to self-harm and self-isolation, (b) peer interactions and relationships in the locker room, and (c) peer relationships are based on shared interests and take time to develop. Even though autistic students were educated in the same spaces as their non-autistic peers, feelings of belonging were largely unavailable to them. Lay abstract Recent years have seen calls to amplify the voices of autistic people in research about their subjective experiences. Despite this, we know little about how autistic youth experience integrated physical education, particularly in the United States. The term integrated is used to describe a setting in which all students, regardless of educational needs, are educated in the same physical space. In this study, we sought to explore the perspectives of autistic youth toward their experiences in integrated physical education, and the roles of social interactions and relationships with peers in those experiences. Findings noted that several factors influenced the ways and extent to which our participants interacted with their peers during physical education. Unfortunately, most of our participants recalled experiencing bullying, and that physical education offered an environment where bullying was most frequent and comparatively unique compared to other contexts throughout the school day. The locker room, a space linked to physical education, was of particular concern because of a lack of teacher presence. Despite the negative views of and experiences in physical education, there was evidence of participants actively pursuing to connect with peers in this context. However, most instances where participants recalled pursuing friendship were not welcomed from others, which stunted their sense of belonging in this space. Given the role that belonging plays in what it means “to be included,” our research supports emerging ideas that even though autistic students were educated in the same physical spaces as their non-autistic peers, feelings of inclusion were largely absent.

scholarly journals Fengyun Meteorological Satellite Products for Earth System Science Applications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Xian ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Ling Gao ◽  
Ruijing Sun ◽  
Haizhen Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Sharing ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
Open Data ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Inversion Algorithm

AbstractFollowing the progress of satellite data assimilation in the 1990s, the combination of meteorological satellites and numerical models has changed the way scientists understand the earth. With the evolution of numerical weather prediction models and earth system models, meteorological satellites will play a more important role in earth sciences in the future. As part of the space-based infrastructure, the Fengyun (FY) meteorological satellites have contributed to earth science sustainability studies through an open data policy and stable data quality since the first launch of the FY-1A satellite in 1988. The capability of earth system monitoring was greatly enhanced after the second-generation polar orbiting FY-3 satellites and geostationary orbiting FY-4 satellites were developed. Meanwhile, the quality of the products generated from the FY-3 and FY-4 satellites is comparable to the well-known MODIS products. FY satellite data has been utilized broadly in weather forecasting, climate and climate change investigations, environmental disaster monitoring, etc. This article reviews the instruments mounted on the FY satellites. Sensor-dependent level 1 products (radiance data) and inversion algorithm-dependent level 2 products (geophysical parameters) are introduced. As an example, some typical geophysical parameters, such as wildfires, lightning, vegetation indices, aerosol products, soil moisture, and precipitation estimation have been demonstrated and validated by in-situ observations and other well-known satellite products. To help users access the FY products, a set of data sharing systems has been developed and operated. The newly developed data sharing system based on cloud technology has been illustrated to improve the efficiency of data delivery.

Severe-Weather Forecasting

Science ◽  
1965 ◽  
Vol 149 (3687) ◽  
pp. 924-924
Author(s):  
W. S. Barney
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Severe Weather

scholarly journals The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessie C. Carman ◽  
Daniel P. Eleuterio ◽  
Timothy C. Gallaudet ◽  
Gerald L. Geernaert ◽  
Patrick A. Harr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Interagency Coordination ◽  
Research Technology ◽  
Prediction Capability ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The United States has had three operational numerical weather prediction centers since the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit was closed in 1958. This led to separate paths for U.S. numerical weather prediction, research, technology, and operations, resulting in multiple community calls for better coordination. Since 2006, the three operational organizations—the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Navy, and the National Weather Service—and, more recently, the Department of Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, have been working to increase coordination. This increasingly successful effort has resulted in the establishment of a National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) office with responsibility to further interagency coordination and collaboration. It has also resulted in sharing of data through an operational global ensemble, common software standards, and model components among the agencies. This article discusses the drivers, the progress, and the future of interagency collaboration.

scholarly journals CubeSat Development for Lightning Flashes Detection: RaioSat Project

2020 ◽  
pp. 80-93
Author(s):  
Antonio Cassiano Julio Filho ◽  
Auro Tikami ◽  
Elaine de Souza Ferreira de Paula ◽  
Jhonathan Murcia Piñeros ◽  
George Favale Fernandes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Preliminary Design ◽  
The World ◽  
Prediction Techniques ◽  
Operational Modes ◽  
Existing Data

Annually, severe weather phenomena are responsible for tens of thousands of deaths and tens of billions of dollars of damage around the world. In Brazil, unlike other hydrometeorological events, severe atmospheric events are random and, therefore, do not have a sociospatial pattern. Because of that, there is a significant motivation to improve the prediction techniques for this kind of events, using high resolution numerical models. A large amount of high-quality observational data is required, including lightning data in a very short-range. In addition, the detection of lightning flashes produced by storms is important for a wide variety of applications and in some areas of scientific research, which include the understanding of the human action on the climate and how the climate change can affect the behavior of storms in long range. One method to monitor the lightning flashes is the implementation of sensors in satellites to obtain data. In this sense, the objective of the RaioSat project is to develop national technology for detecting lightning flashes from the space, in order to complement the existing data from the ground detection network, BrasilDAT. The main objective of this article is to present a methodology for the development of the RaioSat mission including some parts of the preliminary design and operational modes. Additionally, the article describes the expected results and the continuity of the project and a preliminary analysis of a constellation for future projects.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and Watches on Emergency Management Operational Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Heather A. Cross ◽  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Christopher C. Buonanno ◽  
Amy Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) influence the preparation for near-term severe weather events. However, research into how and when EMs utilize that information, and how it influences their emergency operations plan, is limited. Therefore, to better understand how SPC Convective Outlooks are used for severe weather planning, a survey was conducted of NWS core partners in the emergency management sector. The results show EMs prefer to wait until an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is issued to prepare for severe weather. In addition, the Day 2 Convective Outlook serves as the threshold for higher, value-based decision making. The survey was also used to analyze how the issuance of different risk levels in SPC Convective Outlooks impact emergency management preparedness compared to preparations conducted when a Convective Watch is issued.

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