Climate Variability, Drought, and the Belief that High Gods Are Associated with Weather in Nonindustrial Societies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-272
Author(s):  
Carol R. Ember ◽  
Ian Skoggard ◽  
Benjamin Felzer ◽  
Emily Pitek ◽  
Mingkai Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Religious Beliefs ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Resource Stress ◽  
Climate Patterns ◽  
High Gods ◽  
Path Models ◽  
Cold Extremes

AbstractAll societies have religious beliefs, but societies vary widely in the number and type of gods in which they believe as well as their ideas about what the gods do. In many societies, a god is thought to be responsible for weather events. In some of those societies, a god is thought to cause harm with weather and/or can choose to help, such as by bringing needed rain. In other societies, gods are not thought to be involved with weather. Using a worldwide, largely nonindustrial sample of 46 societies with high gods, this research explores whether certain climate patterns predict the belief that high gods are involved with weather. Our major expectation, largely supported, was that such beliefs would most likely be found in drier climates. Cold extremes and hot extremes have little or no relationship to the beliefs that gods are associated with weather. Since previous research by Skoggard et al. showed that greater resource stress predicted the association of high gods with weather, we also tested mediation path models to help us evaluate whether resource stress might be the mediator explaining the significant associations between drier climates and high god beliefs. The climate variables, particularly those pertaining to dryness, continue to have robust relationships to god beliefs when controlling on resource stress; at best, resource stress has only a partial mediating effect. We speculate that drought causes humans more anxiety than floods, which may result in the greater need to believe supernatural beings are not only responsible for weather but can help humans in times of need.

scholarly journals Evapotranspiration of Indonesia Tropical Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 106-116
Author(s):  
Dyah Marganingrum ◽  
Heru Santoso
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Small Islands ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Heterogeneous Landscape ◽  
Tropical Area ◽  
Climate Patterns ◽  
Region Data ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia is an archipelago country with a tropical climate. The region of Indonesia is quite large and located between two continents (Asia and Australia) and between two oceans (Indian and Pacific), making the territory of Indonesia has a unique climate pattern. One of the climate variables that quite important to be studied in this chapter is evapotranspiration. The Thornthwaite method was used to estimate potential evapotranspiration based on average air temperature. The relationships between evapotranspiration, precipitation, and elevation were then examined. Besides, temperature variations that affect climate patterns between monsoonal and equatorial regions were compared, between the mainland and small islands, and between mountain and coastal area. The impact of global warming was also examined on the climate and potential evapotranspiration of the Indonesian region. Data analysis showed that evapotranspiration correlates weakly with precipitation, and the contrary, the evapotranspiration correlates strongly with elevation, with correlation indices of 0.02 and 0.89, respectively. The study confirmed that air temperature is the primary controlling variable of the evapotranspiration in this very heterogeneous landscape. Under a global temperature increase of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrialized year (1765), the evapotranspiration is expected to increase in a range from 4.8 to 11.1%. In general, the excess of water to restore soil moisture in the future tends to decrease, i.e., drier.

Introductory Overview

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Greenland ◽  
Douglas G. Goodin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Response ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Cone Production ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Single Scale

The timescale structure of this book has served well to keep the attention of investigators focused on specific aspects of climate variability and ecosystem response. Indeed, judging by the responses received by the editors of this volume, when given a choice between focusing on one timescale or several timescales, the LTER community was far more comfortable dealing with just one scale. There are obvious reasons for this, not the least of which is that focusing on a single scale greatly simplifies things. The real world, however, does not focus on one timescale. Climatic events and ecosystem responses occur simultaneously at a variety of scales. We wished to explore the climatic variability and ecosystem responses at LTER sites across several different timescales, and the two chapters in this part attempt such an exploration. The chapters consider the temperate rainforest of the H. J. Andrews LTER site in Oregon and the tallgrass ecosystem of the Konza Prairie LTER in Kansas. For the Andrews rainforest, and to some extent the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in general, Greenland et al. (chapter 19) discuss climate variability and ecosystem response at the daily, multidecadal, and century to millennial scales. This discussion for the PNW is supplemented in chapters 6 and 13 of this volume by a consideration of the quasi-quintennial scale and an additional ecosystem response at the decadal scale. The forest ecosystem is more complex than the grassland ecosystem. Greenland et al. cover a wide variety of potential ecosystem responses for the PNW Forest, ranging from severe weather events, to pine cone production, to century- and millennial-scale forest fire frequency regimes and their variation. The focus of chapter 19 is on some of the framework questions of this volume. The questions specifically addressed include the following: What preexisting conditions affect the impact of the climatic event or episode? Is the climatic effect on the ecosystems direct or cascading? Does the system return to its original state? The authors also consider potential future climate change and its possible ecosystem effects. They found that timescale becomes important in addressing some of these questions. For example, at century to millennial timescales, it is suggested that there are likely to be no identical past analogs to the ecosystem at any point in time.

Effects of inter-annual climate variability on grape harvest timing in rainfed hilly vineyards of Piedmont (NW Italy)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Rabino ◽  
Marcella Biddoccu ◽  
Giorgia Bagagiolo ◽  
Guido Nigrelli ◽  
Luca Mercalli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Historical Series ◽  
Nw Italy ◽  
Level Of Significance

<p>Historical weather data represent an extremely precious resource for agro-meteorology for studying evolutionary dynamics and for predictive purposes, to address agronomical and management choices, that have economic, social and environmental effect. The study of climatic variability and its consequences starts from the observation of variations over time and the identification of the causes, on the basis of historical series of meteorological observations. The availability of long-lasting, complete and accurate datasets is a fundamental requirement to predict and react to climate variability. Inter-annual climate changes deeply affect grapevine productive cycle determining direct impact on the onset and duration of phenological stages and, ultimately, on the grape harvest and yield. Indeed, climate variables, such as air temperature and precipitation, affect evapotranspiration rates, plant water requirements, and also the vine physiology. In this respect, the observed increase in the number of warm days poses a threat to grape quality as it creates a situation of imbalance at maturity, with respect to sugar content, acidity and phenolic and aromatic ripeness.</p><p>A study was conducted to investigate the relationships between climate variables and harvest onset dates to assess the responses of grapevine under a global warming scenario. The study was carried out in the “Monferrato” area, a rainfed hillslope vine-growing area of NW Italy. In particular, the onset dates of harvest of different local wine grape varieties grown in the Vezzolano Experimental Farm (CNR-IMAMOTER) and in surrounding vineyards (affiliated to the Terre dei Santi Cellars) were recorded from 1962 to 2019 and then related to historical series of climate data by means of regression analysis. The linear regression was performed based on the averages of maximum and minimum daily temperatures and sum of precipitation (1962–2019) calculated for growing and ripening season, together with a bioclimatic heat index for vineyards, the Huglin index. The climate data were obtained from two data series collected in the Experimental farm by a mechanical weather station (1962-2002) and a second series recorded (2002-2019) by an electro-mechanical station included in Piedmont Regional Agro-meteorological Network. Finally, a third long-term continuous series covering the period from 1962 to 2019, provided by Italian Meteorological Society was considered in the analysis.</p><p>The results of the study highlighted that inter-annual climate variability, with a general positive trend of temperature, significantly affects the ripening of grapes with a progressive anticipation of the harvest onset dates. In particular, all the considered variables excepted precipitation, resulted negatively correlated with the harvest onset date reaching a high level of significance (up to P< 0.001). Best results have been obtained for maximum temperature and Huglin index, especially by using the most complete dataset. The change ratios obtained using datasets including last 15 years were greater (in absolute terms) than results limited to the period 1962-2002, and also correlations have greater level of significance. The results indicated clearly the relationships between the temperature trend and the gradual anticipation of harvest and the importance of having long and continuous historical weather data series available.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Croplands’ Exposure to Climate Variability in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 53-77
Author(s):  
Dada Ibilewa ◽  
Samaila K. Ishaya ◽  
Joshua I. Magaji
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Capacity Planning ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Clay Content ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Organic Carbon Content ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Exposure Indicators

The knowledge of exposure of croplands to climate variability is of paramount importance in adaptive capacity planning to boost food production for the world’s growing population. The study assessed the exposure of croplands to climate variability in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Nigeria using Geo-informatics. This was achieved by examining the distribution pattern of climate indices in FCT from 1981-2017, determining the exposure index of croplands in FCT Area Councils and production of exposure map of FCT Area Councils, The spatial scope of this study is the entire arable land in FCT which is made up of six Area Councils. The research is contextually restricted to exposure of croplands to climate variables while other variables remain constant. The selected climatic variables are rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and potential evapotranspiration (exposure indicators). The arable crops in focus are yam, beans and maize while the soil variables selected for the study are: soil erosion, organic carbon content of the soil, clay content of the soil and percentage of arable land available for crop production. The temporal scope of the examined exposure indicators (climate variables) was limited to a period of thirty (37) years from 1981- 2017. The result indicates that Bwari has the highest exposure (0.1671) to climate variables while Abaji has the least (0.0868) exposure. AMAC is high (0.1371), Kuje (0.1304) is moderate while Gwagwalada (0.1132) and Kwali (0.1154) have low exposures to climate variability. The implication of this on the referenced crops is that crop yield will be highly reduced in Bwari and optimum in Abaji Area Councils due to their climatic requirement. The power of Geo-Spatial Technology in combining different indices of exposure to produce exposure map was demonstrated in the study.

Seasonal predictions of energy-relevant Essential Climate Variables through Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Cionni ◽  
Llorenç Lledó ◽  
Franco Catalano ◽  
Alessandro Dell’Aquila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Prediction Systems

<p>Accurate and reliable information from climate predictions at seasonal time-scales can have an essential role to anticipate climate variability affecting supply of renewables energy and to stabilize and secure the energy network as a whole. A number of recognized modes of variability -often called teleconnections- explain a large part of Earth’s climate variations and represent an important source of climate predictability. The leading atmospheric variability modes in the Euro-Atlantic sector (EATC) affect surface variables such as 2 meters temperature, solar radiation downward, and surface wind anomalies in Europe.</p><p>Characterizing EATC in observations and assessing their simulation and prediction and their impact on the energy sector can help to better understand patterns of seasonal-scale inter annual variability in renewables resources and to consider to what extent this variability might be predictable up to several months in advance. Furthermore EATC can be used to formulate empirical prediction of local climate variability (relevant for the energy sector) based on the large scale atmospheric variability modes predicted by the forecast systems.</p><p>To achieve this goal we analyze reanalysis dataset ERA5 and the multi-system seasonal forecast service provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (C3S).</p><p>Geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa have been employed to compute the four Euro-Atlantic teleconnections North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, Scandinavian and East Atlantic-West Russian. The impacts of those four variability modes on the energy - relevant<span>  </span>essential climate variables have been assessed in both observed and predicted system. We have found that the observed relationship between EATC patterns and surface impacts is not accurately reproduced by seasonal prediction systems. This opens the door to employ hybrid dynamical-statistical methods. The idea consists in combining the dynamical seasonal predictions of EATC indices with the observed relationship between EATCs and surface variables.<span>  </span>We reconstructed the surface anomalies for multiple seasonal prediction systems and benchmarked these hybrid forecasts with the direct variable forecasts from the systems and also with the climatology. The analysis suggest that predictions of energy relevant Essential Climate Variables are improved by the hybrid methodology in almost all Europe.<span> </span></p>

scholarly journals Extreme Weather Events and Climate Variability Provide a Lens to How Shallow Lakes May Respond to Climate Change

Water ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl Havens ◽  
Hans Paerl ◽  
Edward Phlips ◽  
Mengyuan Zhu ◽  
John Beaver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Shallow Lakes ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events
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