The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico

2015 ◽  
Vol 59 (8) ◽  
pp. 1455-1485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Calderón ◽  
Gustavo Robles ◽  
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros ◽  
Beatriz Magaloni
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
Criminal Organization ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Drug Trafficking Organizations ◽  
Target Drug ◽  
Leadership Strategy ◽  
Criminal Organizations ◽  
Mexican Government

In 2006, the Mexican government launched an aggressive campaign to weaken drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs). The security policies differed significantly from those of previous administrations in the use of a leadership strategy (the targeting for arrest of the highest levels or core leadership of criminal networks). While these strategies can play an important role in disrupting the targeted criminal organization, they can also have unintended consequences, increasing inter-cartel and intra-cartel fighting and fragmenting criminal organizations. What impact do captures of senior drug cartel members have on the dynamics of drug-related violence? Does it matter if governments target drug kingpins versus lower-ranked lieutenants? We analyze whether the captures or killings of kingpins and lieutenants have increased drug-related violence and whether the violence spills over spatially. To estimate effects that are credibly causal, we use different empirical strategies that combine difference-in-differences and synthetic control group methods. We find evidence that captures or killings of drug cartel leaders have exacerbating effects not only on DTO-related violence but also on homicides that affect the general population. Captures or killings of lieutenants, for their part, only seem to exacerbate violence in “strategic places” or municipalities located in the transportation network. While most of the effects on DTO-related violence are found in the first six months after a leader’s removal, effects on homicides affecting the rest of the population are more enduring, suggesting different mechanisms through which leadership neutralizations breed violence.

scholarly journals When is a Match Sufficient? A Score-based Balance Metric for the Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-228
Author(s):  
Layla Parast ◽  
Priscillia Hunt ◽  
Beth Ann Griffin ◽  
David Powell
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn some applications, researchers using the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of a policy may struggle to determine whether they have identified a “good match” between the control group and treated group. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of the mean and maximum Absolute Standardized Mean Difference (ASMD) as a test of balance between a synthetic control unit and treated unit, and provide guidance on what constitutes a poor fit when using a synthetic control. We explore and compare other potential metrics using a simulation study. We provide an application of our proposed balance metric to the 2013 Los Angeles (LA) Firearm Study [9]. Using Uniform Crime Report data, we apply the SCM to obtain a counterfactual for the LA firearm-related crime rate based on a weighted combination of control units in a donor pool of cities. We use this counterfactual to estimate the effect of the LA Firearm Study intervention and explore the impact of changing the donor pool and pre-intervention duration period on resulting matches and estimated effects. We demonstrate how decision-making about the quality of a synthetic control can be improved by using ASMD. The mean and max ASMD clearly differentiate between poor matches and good matches. Researchers need better guidance on what is a meaningful imbalance between synthetic control and treated groups. In addition to the use of gap plots, the proposed balance metric can provide an objective way of determining fit.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of the employment roadmap on the unemployment rate of the Republic of Kazakhstan: synthetic control method

2021 ◽  
pp. 121-130
Author(s):  
T. S. Sokira ◽  
Z. T. Myshbayeva
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Weighted Combination

The purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the action plan of the Employment Roadmap on the unemployment rate in Kazakhstan.Methodology. Synthetic Control Method was used in this paper. The method, which compares one or more units exposed to the event and determines what would have happened if the unit had not been treated. In other words, this method creates a weighted combination of control states to create a single «synthetic» control group, in order to approach the counterfactual unit in Kazakhstan in the absence of a plan or Roadmap.The originality / value of the research based on the analysis, panel data from Kazakhstan and 13 donor pool countries for the period 2000-2019 were taken for modeling.Findings: As a result of the study, it was revealed that the unemployment rate would have been 2% higher in 2019 if Kazakhstan had not adopted an action plan in the form of an Employment Roadmap in 2009.

The Wrongfulness of Crimes of Unlawful Association

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 563-589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Cancio Meliáá
Keyword(s):  
Organized Crime ◽  
Criminal Policy ◽  
Criminal Organization ◽  
Political Organization ◽  
Collective Interest ◽  
Criminal Organizations ◽  
Actual Content ◽  
Penal Law ◽  
Penal Codes ◽  
Basic Approaches

Though always present in penal codes, offenses based on belonging to a criminal organization occupy a vanguard position in today's evolution of penal law systems: organized crime is located at one of the most prominent places in the criminal policy agenda. Nevertheless, neither criminal law theory nor the actual content of criminal provisions nor the putting of theory into practice enables an adequate restriction of the interpretation of the laws against criminal organizations. Therefore we need to investigate the wrongfulness at the base of this offense. European legal scholarship has proposed two basic approaches: to consider that this offense anticipates the possibility of punishing and prosecuting such behavior (anticipation theory) or to consider that it harms a collective interest ("public security," "public peace"). From our perspective, it is necessary to underline the collective wrongfulness embedded in a criminal organization and that, beyond the actual crimes committed, it questions the monopoly of violence exercised by the state. It represents the constitution of a violent organization that counters the basis of state political organization (arrogation of political organization). This approach opens a possibility to adequately define the offense of belonging to a criminal organization.

The Long-term and Spillover Effects of Price Promotions on Retailing Platforms: Evidence from a Large Randomized Experiment on Alibaba

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 2589-2609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis J. Zhang ◽  
Hengchen Dai ◽  
Lingxiu Dong ◽  
Fangfang Qi ◽  
Nannan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Pricing ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Customer Behavior ◽  
Customer Engagement ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Price Promotions ◽  
Promotion Program ◽  
Shopping Cart

Dynamic pricing through price promotions has been widely used by online retailers. We study how a promotion strategy, one that offers customers a discount for products in their shopping cart, affects customer behavior in the short and long term on a retailing platform. We conduct a randomized field experiment involving more than 100 million customers and 11,000 retailers with Alibaba Group, one of the world’s largest retailing platform. We randomly assign eligible customers to either receive promotions for products in their shopping cart (treatment group) or not receive promotions (control group). In the short term, our promotion program doubles the sales of promoted products on the day of promotion. In the long term, we causally document unintended consequences of this promotion program during the month after our treatment period. On the positive side, it boosts customer engagement, increasing the daily number of products that customers view and their purchase incidence on the platform. On the negative side, it intensifies strategic customer behavior in the posttreatment period in two ways: (1) by increasing the proportion of products that customers add to their shopping cart conditional on viewing them, possibly because of their intention to get more shopping cart promotions, and (2) by decreasing the price that customers subsequently pay for a product, possibly because of their strategic search for lower prices. Importantly, these long-term effects of price promotions on consumer engagement and strategic behavior spill over to sellers who did not previously offer promotions to customers. Finally, we examine heterogeneous treatment effects across promotion, seller, and consumer characteristics. These findings have important implications for platforms and retailers. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.

scholarly journals Effect on background checks of newly-enacted comprehensive background check policies in Oregon and Washington: a synthetic control approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Castillo-Carniglia ◽  
Daniel W. Webster ◽  
Garen J. Wintemute
Keyword(s):  
Gradual Increase ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Private Party ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Background Checks ◽  
Background Check ◽  
Criminal Background ◽  
Check System

Abstract Background Comprehensive background check (CBC) laws extend background check requirements to private party firearm transfers to prevent firearm acquisitions by prohibited persons. The aim of our study was to estimate the association between CBC policies and changes in background check rates for firearm acquisition in two states (Oregon and Washington) that have newly-enacted CBC policies. Methods We used data on handgun background checks from January 1999 to December 2018 from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. Observed trends in exposed states were contrasted with counterfactual trends estimated with the synthetic control group method. Findings CBC policies were associated with increases in background checks in Oregon (by 18.0%; p = 0.074), but not in Washington (4%; p = 0.321). A gradual increase in private party checks was seen following enactment in Washington; however, firearm transactions coded as “private” represent less than 5% of total background checks in that state. Conclusions Comprehensive background check policies appear to be effective in increasing pre-firearm-sale background checks in Oregon but not in Washington. Differences appear to be related to variations in the proportion of firearm sales that are private party transfers and to gradual adaptation to the new law by private gun sellers.

scholarly journals Using register data to estimate causal effects of interventions: An ex post synthetic control-group approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (17_suppl) ◽  
pp. 50-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Bygren ◽  
Ryszard Szulkin
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Job Training ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Register Data ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Regression To The Mean ◽  
Ex Post

Aims: It is common in the context of evaluations that participants have not been selected on the basis of transparent participation criteria, and researchers and evaluators many times have to make do with observational data to estimate effects of job training programs and similar interventions. The techniques developed by researchers in such endeavours are useful not only to researchers narrowly focused on evaluations, but also to social and population science more generally, as observational data overwhelmingly are the norm, and the endogeneity challenges encountered in the estimation of causal effects with such data are not trivial. The aim of this article is to illustrate how register data can be used strategically to evaluate programs and interventions and to estimate causal effects of participation in these. Methods: We use propensity score matching on pretreatment-period variables to derive a synthetic control group, and we use this group as a comparison to estimate the employment-treatment effect of participation in a large job-training program. Results: We find the effect of treatment to be small and positive but transient. Conclusions: Our method reveals a strong regression to the mean effect, extremely easy to interpret as a treatment effect had a less advanced design been used (e.g. a within-subjects panel data analysis), and illustrates one of the unique advantages of using population register data for research purposes.

scholarly journals Comprehensive background check policy and firearm background checks in three US states

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 431-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Castillo-Carniglia ◽  
Rose M C Kagawa ◽  
Daniel W Webster ◽  
Jon S Vernick ◽  
Magdalena Cerdá ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Private Party ◽  
Background Checks ◽  
Background Check ◽  
Consistent Increase ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data

BackgroundComprehensive background check (CBC) policies are hypothesised to reduce firearm-related violence because they extend background checks to private party firearm sales, but no study has determined whether these policies actually increase background checks, an expected intermediary outcome. We evaluate the association between CBC policies and the rates of firearm background checks in three states that recently implemented these policies: Delaware (July 2013), Colorado (July 2013) and Washington (December 2014).MethodsWe used the synthetic control group method to estimate the difference from estimated counterfactual postintervention trends in the monthly rate of background checks per 1 00 000 people for handguns, long guns and both types combined, using data for January 1999 through December 2016. Inference was based on results from permutation tests. We conducted multiple sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our results.ResultsBackground check rates increased in Delaware, by 22%–34% depending on the type of firearm, following enactment of its CBC law. No overall changes were observed in Washington and Colorado. Our results were robust to changes in the comparison group and statistical methods.ConclusionsThe enactment of CBC policies was associated with an overall increase in firearm background checks only in Delaware. Data external to the study suggest that Washington experienced a modest, but consistent, increase in background checks for private party sales, and Colorado experienced a similar increase in checks for sales not at gun shows. Non-compliance may explain the lack of an overall increase in background checks in Washington and Colorado.

scholarly journals Evaluating the economic impact of a preventative seismic legislation in Ecuador

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 330-340
Author(s):  
Juan Ponce ◽  
Andrés Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Seismic Resistant ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
New Construction ◽  
Inspection Policy ◽  
The Cost

At the end of 2013 a compulsory inspection policy was introduced in Quito-Ecuador to ensure that new buildings complied with seismic resistant design requirements. This policy could affect the economic sector of construction by increasing the cost of buildings. It is in this context that this paper analyses the economic impact of the new construction policy. Given that this policy only applied to the canton of Quito and not to any other canton in Ecuador, the paper creates a synthetic control group on the basis of infrastructure and socio-economic data of the fifteen most heavily populated cantons in the country. The results show a statistically significant and negative impact. In other words, although the new policy succeeded in improving the seismic resistant quality of buildings in the canton of Quito, at the same time it had a negative effect on the per capita gross value added of the construction sector.

Internal Validity

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard McCleary ◽  
David McDowall ◽  
Bradley J. Bartos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Internal Validity ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Control Time ◽  
Data Control ◽  
Rubin's Causal Model ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
And Control

Chapter 7 begins with an outline and description of five threats to internal validity common to time series designs: history, maturation, instrumentation, regression, and selection. Given the fundamental role of prediction in the modern scientific method, scientific hypotheses are necessarily causal. After an outline of the evolving definition of “causality” in the social sciences, contemporary Rubin causality or counterfactual causality is introduced. Under the assumption that subjects were randomly assigned to the treatment and control groups, Rubin’s causal model allows one to estimate the unobserved causal parameter from observed data. Control time series are chosen so as to render plausible threats to internal validity implausible. An appropriate control time series may not exist, however, an ideal time series may be possible to construct. Synthetic control group models construct a control time series that optimally recreates the treated unit’s preintervention trend using a combination of untreated donor pool units.

When Scarface Met Rico

2019 ◽  
pp. 145-156
Author(s):  
Joe Kraus
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
Crime Control ◽  
Criminal Organization ◽  
Illegal Activity ◽  
Organized Crime Control ◽  
Criminal Organizations ◽  
Shared Goal

This chapter traces the waning of Patrick’s career and that of the Outfit as law enforcement was closing in. It discusses the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) statutes, which was part of the Organized Crime Control Act of 1970. RICO expressly spelled out the capacity to target individuals for being part of a criminal organization. It expanded the existing power to bring conspiracy charges against criminal organizations. Under conspiracy, everyone involved had to be aware of the shared goal of the operation, and the group was defined by its participation in a particular crime. Under RICO, it became possible to convict someone who was part of an organization engaged in a pattern of illegal activity even if some members of the organization were unaware of specific actions or even of the ultimate goal of those actions.

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