Why Democracy Protests Do Not Diffuse

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (10) ◽  
pp. 2354-2389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawn Brancati ◽  
Adrián Lucardi

One of the primary international factors proposed to explain the geographic and temporal clustering of democracy is the diffusion of democracy protests. Democracy protests are thought to diffuse across countries, primarily, through a demonstration effect, whereby protests in one country cause protests in another based on the positive information that they convey about the likelihood of successful protests elsewhere and, secondarily, through the actions of transnational activists. In contrast to this view, we argue that, in general, democracy protests are not likely to diffuse across countries because the motivation for and the outcome of democracy protests result from domestic processes that are unaffected or undermined by the occurrence of democracy protests in other countries. Our statistical analysis supports this argument. Using daily data on the onset of democracy protests around the world between 1989 and 2011, we find that in this period, democracy protests were not significantly more likely to occur in countries when democracy protests had occurred in neighboring countries, either in general or in ways consistent with the expectations of diffusion arguments.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avtandil G. Amiranashvili ◽  
Ketevan R. Khazaradze ◽  
Nino D. Japaridze

The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There are clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February - first half of March 2021. However, in April-May 2021 there was a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from March 01, 2021 to May 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I. The information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in spring 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 156 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in May 2021 Georgia was in the 11 place on new infection cases and in the 14 place on Death. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia in spring 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 25.3 % (22.05.2021), the smallest 1.42 % (15.03.2021). Data about infection rate of the population of Georgia with Covid-19 according to traffic light system shown, that Georgia in April and May 2021 was in the red zone. The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 2171 (05.05.2021), R = 2038 (17.05.2021), D = 33 (22.05.2021), I = 8.05 % (04.05.2020). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 1258 (3 Decade of April 2021), R = 1283 (2 Decade of May 2021), D = 24 (2 Decade of May 2021), I = 6.54 % (1 Decade of May 2021). It was found that as with September 2020 to February 2021 [8], in spring 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months in the spring 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +37 cases/day (1 Decade of April 2021), V(R) = +36 cases/day (3 Decade of April 2021), V(D) = +0.6 cases/day (3 Decade of April 2021), V(I) = + 0.17 %/ day (2 and 3 decades of April 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that the maximum effect of recovery is observed 9 and 13 days after infection, and deaths - after 12-17 days. Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that two-week daily and mean two-week real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values for the specified time periods. The comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out. Key words: New Coronavirus COVID-19, statistical analysis, short-term prediction.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avtandil G. Amiranashvili ◽  
Ketevan R. Khazaradze ◽  
Nino D. Japaridze

The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 contributed to positive trends in the spread of COVID-19 until February - the first half of March 2021. Then, in April-May 2021, the epidemiological situation worsened significantly, and from June to the end of December COVID - situation in Georgia was very difficult. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of monthly forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in investigation period (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 157 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in October 2021 Georgia was in the 4 place on new infection cases, and in September - in the 1 place on death. Georgia took the best place in terms of confirmed cases of diseases (thirteenth) in December, and in mortality (fifth) - in October. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 76.8 % (September 03, 2021), the smallest 18.7 % (November 10, 2021). As in previous work [9,10] the statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 6024 (November 3, 2021), R = 6017 (November 15, 2021), D = 86 (September 3, 2021), I = 12.04 % (November 24, 2021). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 4757 (1 Decade of November 2021), R = 4427 (3 Decade of November 2021), D = 76 (2 Decade of November 2021), I = 10.55 % (1 Decade of November 2021). It was found that as in spring and summer 2021 [9,10], from September to December 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R, D and I have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months for the indicated period of time were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +139 cases/day (1 Decade of October 2021), V(R) = +124 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(D) = +1.7 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(I) = + 0.20 %/ day (1 decades of October 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 12 and 14 days after infection (CR=0.77 and 0.78 respectively), and deaths - after 7, 9, 11, 13 and 14 days (0.70≤CR≤0.72); from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 14 days after infection (RC=0.71), and deaths - after 9 days (CR=0.43). In Georgia from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the duration of the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to 28 and 35 days respectively; from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - up to 21 and 29 days respectively. Comparison of daily real and calculated monthly predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in investigation period of time daily and mean monthly real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values. Traditionally, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avtandil G. Amiranashvili ◽  
Ketevan R. Khazaradze ◽  
Nino D. Japaridze

AbstractThe lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There were clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February - first half of March 2021. However, in April-May 2021 there was a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation. From June to August 2021, the epidemiological situation with Covid-19 in Georgia became very difficult.In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from June 01, 2021 to August 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/.The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained.Georgia’s ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in summer 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 159 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in August 2021 Georgia was in the 1 place on new infection cases and on Death.A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia in summer 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 66.0 % (26.08.2021 and 31.08.2021), the smallest 6.0 % (09.07.2021).The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 6208 (17.08.2021), R = 6177 (29.08.2021), D = 79 (26.08.2021 and 31.08.2021), I = 13.0 % (17.08.2021). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 5019 (2 Decade of August 2021), R = 4822 (3 Decade of August 2021), D = 69 (3 Decade of August 2021), I = 10.88 % (2 Decade of August 2021).It was found that as with September 2020 to February 2021 and in spring 2021 [7,8], from June to August 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial.Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months in the summer 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +134 cases/day (1 Decade of August 2021), V(R) = +134 cases/day (2 Decade of August 2021), V(D) = +2.4 cases/day (3 Decade of August 2021), V(I) = + 0.25 %/ day (1 decades of August 2021).Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that the maximum effect of recovery is observed 19 days after infection (RC=0.95), and deaths - after 16 and 18 days (RC=0.94). In Georgia in the summer 2021, the duration of the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to two months.Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in summer 2021 two-week daily and mean two-week real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values.With September 1, 2021, it is started monthly forecasting of C, D and I values.As earlier, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avtandil G. Amiranashvili ◽  
Ketevan R. Khazaradze ◽  
Nino D. Japaridze

AbstractIn the autumn - winter period of 2020, very difficult situation arose in Georgia with the course of the pandemic of the New Coronavirus COVID-19. In particular, in November-December period of 2020, Georgia eight days was rank a first in the world in terms of COVID-19 infection rate per 1 million populations.In this work results of a statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from September 01, 2020 to February 28, 2021 (for I - from December 05, 2020 to February 28, 2021) are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of ten-day (decade) and two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/.The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained.Georgia’s ranking in the world for Covid-19 infection and deaths from September 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Georgia was in the first place: Infection - November 21, 22, 27, 28 and December 04, 05, 06, 09, 2020; Death - November 22, 2020.A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia from September 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 was made. The largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 36.9% (19.12.2020), the smallest - 0.9% (21.09.2020, 24.09.2020 - 26.09.2020).The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 5450 (05.12.2020), R = 4599 (21.12.2020), D = 53 (19.12.2020), I = 30.1 % (05.12.2020). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 4337 (1 Decade of December 2020), R = 3605 (3 Decade of November 2020), D = 44 (2 Decade of December 2020), I = 26.8 % (1 Decade of December 2020).It was found that the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial.Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R) and deaths - V(D) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months from September 2020 to February 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +104 cases/day (1 Decade of November 2020), V(R) = +94 cases/day (3 Decade of October and 1 Decade of November 2020), V(D) = +0.9 cases/day (1 Decade of November 2020).Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases from 05.12.2020 to 28.02.2021 is carried out. So, the maximum effect of recovery is observed 13-14 days after infection, and deaths - after 13-14 and 17-18 days.The scale of comparing real data with the predicted ones and assessing the stability of the time series of observations in the forecast period in relation to the pre-predicted one was offered.Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C (23.09.2020-28.02.2021), D (01.01.2021-28.02.2021) and I (01.02.2021-28.02.2021) in Georgia are carried out. It was found that daily, mean decade and two-week real values of C, D and I practically falls into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values for the specified time periods (except the forecast of C for 13.10.2020-22.10.2020, when a nonlinear process of growth of C values was observed and its real values have exceeded 99.99% of the upper level of the confidence interval of forecast).Alarming deterioration with the spread of coronavirus parameters may arise when their daily values are higher 99.99% of upper level of the forecast confidence interval. Excellent improvement - when these daily values are below 99.99% of the lower level of the forecast confidence interval.The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There are clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February 2021.


2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-119
Author(s):  
VLADIMIR GLEB NAYDONOV

The article considers the students’ tolerance as a spectrum of personal manifestations of respect, acceptance and correct understanding of the rich diversity of cultures of the world, values of others’ personality. The purpose of the study is to investgate education and the formation of tolerance among the students. We have compiled a training program to improve the level of tolerance for interethnic differences. Based on the statistical analysis of the data obtained, the most important values that are significant for different levels of tolerance were identified.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 550-557
Author(s):  
Harini P ◽  
Abilasha R

The most unexpected pandemic global outbreak is COVID 19 which is a newly discovered viral infection which originated in Wuhan, China and it caused the outbreak of pneumonia in the rest of the world. Dental practitioners are more susceptible to COVID 19 infection as their work is related to the aerosol formation during various procedures through which the virus spreads. The aim of the study is to create awareness about precautionary measures against COVID- 19 exposure among dental practitioners in Tamilnadu. A Survey based questionnaire was formulated with questions related to the various precautionary measures to be adopted by dental practitioners which would be effective to prevent Covid-19 exposure. A questionnaire with a total of 20 questions was circulated among dental practitioners and the responses were collected by google forms SPSS software statistical analysis was done. The overall awareness of dental practitioners against Covid-19 was above average. The dental practitioners were relatively well aware of the precautions to be adopted while treating the patients, but the implementation in practice is lacking due absence of hands-on experience in using various kinds of PPE. There is a gap between knowledge and attitude and practice among the participants of this survey. It is therefore essential to plan for organising training sessions and hands-on workshops for the use of PPE and public training of the general population regarding Covid-19 to improve the knowledge among the patients visiting the dental clinic as well.


2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mama Sangare ◽  
C. Tekete ◽  
O. K. Bagui ◽  
A. Ba ◽  
J. T. Zoueu

<p class="1Body">Rice is staple in the African habitats menu. Bacterial wilt (BLB) and leaf streak (BLS) are some of the phytopathological diseases which restrain rice production around the world. In this paper, multi-spectral and multi-modal imaging techniques have been developed to characterize the rice leaves with symptoms of bacterial wilt (BLB) and leaf streak (BLS), and to provide information on their effects, in order to reduce their spread. First, we recorded microscopic and spectroscopic images of the samples using multimodal and multispectral microscope, with spectral region ranging from UV to NIR, for each mode. Then, we extracted the spectral footprints of the cells constituents, in transmission, reflection and scattering from the spectral images. Applying multivariate statistical analysis methods to this optical spectra allowed us to characterize the effect of bacterial rice leaves caused by <em>Xanthomonas oryzae</em> strains. The results of the proposed technique can be useful for easy identification of this type of infection, and can serve as routine approach in biochemical and agronomic laboratories.</p>


Author(s):  
Annisa Puspa Kirana ◽  
Adhitya Bhawiyuga

At the end of December 2019, the virus emerges from Wuhan, China, and resulted in a severe outbreak in many cities in China and expanding globally, including Indonesia. Indonesia is the fourth most populated country globally. As of February 2021, Indonesia in the first rank of positive cases of COVID-19 in Southeast Asia, number 4 in Asia, and number 19 in the world. Our paper aims to provide detailed reporting and analysis of the COVID-19 case overview and forecasting that have hit Indonesia. Our time-series dataset from March 2020 to January 2021. Summary of cases studied included the number of positive cases and deaths due to COVID-19 on a daily or monthly basis. We use time series and forecasting analysis using the Naïve Forecast method.  The prediction is daily case prediction for six months starting from February 1, 2021, to June 30, 2021, using active cases daily COVID-19 data in all provinces in Indonesia. The highest monthly average case prediction is in June, which is 35,662 cases. Our COVID-19 prediction study has a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) score of 15.85%.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-222
Author(s):  
Hendri Tanjung

Volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index. This study investigates the volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) in Jakarta Stock Exchange. The method that used in this research is used a simple statistical analysis. The normality of JII return is analyzed to answer whether the return of JII follows normal distribution. By using data of Jakarta Islamic Index from 2nd March 2009 to 30th October 2013 (1122 daily data), it is found that the distribution of return of JII is not normal, even the 5 sigma occurred. This means the return of Jakarta Islamic Index is much volatile than the theory predicted. This will make too much gain or loss in one day in the economy  DOI:10.15408/aiq.v6i2.1231


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