The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their monthly interval prediction from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021

The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 contributed to positive trends in the spread of COVID-19 until February - the first half of March 2021. Then, in April-May 2021, the epidemiological situation worsened significantly, and from June to the end of December COVID - situation in Georgia was very difficult. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of monthly forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in investigation period (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 157 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in October 2021 Georgia was in the 4 place on new infection cases, and in September - in the 1 place on death. Georgia took the best place in terms of confirmed cases of diseases (thirteenth) in December, and in mortality (fifth) - in October. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 76.8 % (September 03, 2021), the smallest 18.7 % (November 10, 2021). As in previous work [9,10] the statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 6024 (November 3, 2021), R = 6017 (November 15, 2021), D = 86 (September 3, 2021), I = 12.04 % (November 24, 2021). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 4757 (1 Decade of November 2021), R = 4427 (3 Decade of November 2021), D = 76 (2 Decade of November 2021), I = 10.55 % (1 Decade of November 2021). It was found that as in spring and summer 2021 [9,10], from September to December 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R, D and I have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months for the indicated period of time were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +139 cases/day (1 Decade of October 2021), V(R) = +124 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(D) = +1.7 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(I) = + 0.20 %/ day (1 decades of October 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 12 and 14 days after infection (CR=0.77 and 0.78 respectively), and deaths - after 7, 9, 11, 13 and 14 days (0.70≤CR≤0.72); from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 14 days after infection (RC=0.71), and deaths - after 9 days (CR=0.43). In Georgia from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the duration of the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to 28 and 35 days respectively; from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - up to 21 and 29 days respectively. Comparison of daily real and calculated monthly predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in investigation period of time daily and mean monthly real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values. Traditionally, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out.

Feline Demodicosis Case Report—First Molecular Characterization of Demodex Mites in Romania

Cat demodicosis is uncommon to rare, and is caused by Demodex cati, Demodex gatoi and another unnamed species. The investigated patient was a mix-breed, 10-year-old feline with no dermatological history. Alopecia, erythema, minor erosions and ulcerations and crusts, associated with pruritus and self-trauma, were observed on the head. Dark, agglutinated cerumen was also present in the external ear canal. The agent causing the skin condition in the feline patient was identified as being a Demodex genus mite, based on the specific, morphological characteristics noticed upon the microscopic examination of deep skin scrapes. Biological samples were collected from the patient with to perform a PCR assay for clear species-determination and morphological assessment. PCR amplification of DNA extracted from the Demodex mites produced a single band of ~330 bp, indicating the presence of the D. cati species. The acaricidal treatment consisted of topical treatment using a fluralaner and moxidectin-based spot-on. Upon follow-up appointments, scheduled three times at a monthly interval, the patient failed to provide a positive result upon deep skin scrapes. The negative scrapes were also accompanied by the complete resolution of the existing lesions. In conclusion, this is the first molecular study to highlight the presence of Demodex cati within the feline population of Romania, and the fluralaner-moxidectin spot-on therapy has led to a complete recovery of the feline patient affected by feline demodicosis.

Effect of dietary supplementation of astaxanthin (potent antioxidant) on growth rate, DMI, FCR and metabolic changes in Karan Fries heifers during heat stress

A study was conducted on twelve Karan Fries (Holstein Friesian X Tharparkar) heifers, (10-12 months), in LRC of NDRI, Karnal.Heifers were divided equally into two groups i.e. control, and treatment (supplemented with astaxanthin@ 0.25 mg per kgBW per day per animal) to assess the heat stress ameliorative action of astaxanthin during summer season. During experimental period, environmental variables were recorded and THI was calculated to assess levels of summer stress. Blood samples were collected from both the group of heifers at fortnightly interval for quantification of plasma leptin and ghrelin hormones.Body weights of heifers were recorded at monthly interval. The body weight gain and ADG were significantly (P  0.05) higher in treatment group. Feed intake was higher (P  0.05) and FCR was lower (P  0.05) in astaxanthin supplemented group.Plasma leptin was higher(P  0.05), while,plasma ghrelinand surface skin temperature were numerically lower in treatment than control group of heifers.The study found that astaxanthin supplementation amelio rated the negative impact of summer stress and helped in enhancement of growth rate and ADG by improving the feed intake and by decreasing the FCR of heifers.

First Questionnaire-based Survey on the Uptake and Use of FMD-HS Combined Oil Adjuvant Vaccine in India

Background: The Government of India allowed the State of Haryana to go for the 27th round of FMD and HS combined oil adjuvant vaccine for mass vaccination of eligible bovine population, at a six monthly interval under FMD-CP. This was the second phase of the combined vaccination. Haryana is the only state in India where a single FMD and HS combined vaccine was used in bovines as a pilot project for protection against two most economically important diseases i.e. Hemorrhagic Septicemia (HS) and Foot and Mouth (FMD) diseases. The aim of this study is to describe the current uptake and usage of FMD and HS dual vaccine on the basis of a questionnaire-based survey of livestock owners in Haryana. Methods: Randomly selected livestock owners from 6 district namely Karnal, Panipat, Kurukshetra, Ambala, Panchkula and Yamunanagar of Haryana State were contacted and a questionnaire, made available in paper format, was distributed to them to participate in this study. Appropriate, answers to open questions were categorised into themes using thematic analysis methodology (Attride-Stirling, 2001). Result: Total of 96.81 (ninety six point eight one) percent of respondents (n=942/973) had their cattle vaccinated. Of the 31 respondents who excluded their animals from the vaccination, 58.06 percent pregnant (18/31), 16.12 percent lactating (5/31), 12.9 percent calves (4/31) and 6.45 percent sick (2/31) animals were indicated. The respondents who excluded their animals further expressed their desire to get their animals vaccinated during later stages of life.

Predicting Emerging Themes in Rapidly Expanding COVID-19 Literature with Unsupervised Word Embeddings and Machine Learning (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Evidence from peer-reviewed literature is the cornerstone for designing responses to global threats such as COVID-19. The collection of knowledge in publications needs to be distilled into evidence by leveraging natural language models and machine learning. OBJECTIVE We aim to show that new knowledge can be captured and tracked using the temporal change in the underlying unsupervised word embeddings of literature. Further imminent themes can be predicted using machine learning upon the evolving associations between words. METHODS Frequently occurring medical entities were extracted from the abstracts of more than 150,000 COVID-19 articles published on the WHO database, collected on a monthly interval starting from February 2020. Word embeddings trained on each month's literature were used to construct networks of entities with cosine similarities as edge weights. Topological features of the subsequent month’s network were forecasted based on prior patterns and new links were predicted using supervised machine learning. Community detection and alluvial diagrams were used to track biomedical themes that evolved over the months. RESULTS We found that thromboembolic complications were detected as an emerging theme as early as August 2020. A shift towards symptoms of Long COVID complications was observed during March 2021 and neurological complications gained significance in June 2021. A prospective validation of the link prediction models achieved an AUROC score of 0.87. Predictive modelling revealed predisposing conditions, symptoms, cross-infection and neurological complications as a dominant research theme in COVID-19 publications based on patterns observed in previous months. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning-based prediction of emerging links can contribute towards steering research by capturing themes represented by groups of medical entities, based on patterns of semantic relationships over time.

Chemical Composition and Nutritional Value of Paddy Straw Milky Mushroom (Calocybe indica)

The edible milky mushroom is the most widely cultivated mushroom in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Studies were conducted on the cultivation and nutritional analysis of this mushroom. The pure culture of Calocybe indica was carried out in the laboratory. The culture was maintained on potato dextrose agar slant and sub-cultured at a regular monthly interval to sustain their fruiting vigor. The above stock culture was used in studies. Wheat grain spawn of C. indica was prepared in glass bottles. The filled paddy grain spawn of C. indica was used at 6% level to the wet weight of the substrate and the beds were spawned. After harvest, the mushrooms were dried at 40°C under the hot air oven to make it powered for further analysis. The collected fresh mushrooms were dried in shade and coarse powder was analyzed for nutrients namely moisture, crude protein, lipid, ash, crude fiber, and minerals. It shows the dominant compounds of protein, fiber, and carbohydrate and the contents are 14.11%, 8.30% and 5.62% respectively. Lipid, ash, ether extract and pH contents are 4.06%, 7.04%, 3.15% and 5.4% respectively. The carbon and nitrogen contents are 33.60% and 3.56% respectively. In the estimation of saturated fatty acids and unsaturated fatty acids present in C. indica, totally, 17 fatty acids were recorded. In the estimation of essential and non-essential amino acids present in C. indica, totally, 15 amino acids were recorded. In the estimation of minerals composition present in C. indica, it was recorded that the species had a good resource of mineral composition. Totally, 6 macro minerals and 8 micro minerals were recorded. This investigation may provide that the paddy straw substrates can be recommended for the commercial cultivation of C. indica to obtain highly nutritious mushrooms.

Storage behaviour of the pickle prepared from various cultivars of aonla (Emblica officinalis Gaertn.)

The aonla (Emblica officinalis Gaertn.) is commonly referred to as a "Miracle Fruit for the Health", owing to the high nutritious and therapeutic value of its fruits. But the fresh fruits are not ingested freely due to the astringent taste caused by fruit tannins. In production and acreage under aonla cultivation Uttar Pradesh is the leading state in the country. The study aims to understand the storage behaviour of the pickle prepared from the aonla fruit. Pickle was prepared from the eight aonla cultivars viz - Kanchan, Banarasi, Krishna, Chakaiya, NA – 8, NA – 7, NA – 6, and NA – 9. Physicochemical characters (such vitamin 'C' (ascorbic acid), total soluble solids (T.S.S.), browning, and acidity), and sensory/organoleptic scores were recorded at the monthly interval during storage. The result showed that the aonla pickle is acceptable up to nine months thereafter, reduction was noted in the physicochemical and organoleptic scores. Among all cultivars tested, NA-7 was found to be ideal for pickle preparation.

PELATIHAN MANAJEMEN STRES SECARA DARING PADA REMAJA LAKI-LAKI SELAMA PEMBELAJARAN JARAK JAUH

Online stress management training among junior high school male adolescents during school from home. This research aims to examine the effectiveness of an online stress management training program for male adolescents, between 12-15 years old, who are attending School from Home (SFH) due to pandemic COVID -19. Design of this research is a one-group design with three times measurement, which are pre-test, post-test, and a follow up, in a monthly interval between each measurement. The measurements are Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) and BRIEF COPE. The online training program is conducted through video conferencing meetings twice a week. One session of the program takes 90 minutes. Research participants consists of 6 male adolescents. The discovered data is then analyzed through Friedman test to identify a significant mean score's differences on the utilized instruments after the program. The result shows significant decrease of stress level followed by the significant improvement of the use of adaptive coping strategy. So, online stress management training can be an effective program to help high school adolescents to lower down their stress level during school from home in Pandemic COVID-19.

Impact of post scarification storage period on seed germination and quality in soapnut (Sapinduas emarginatus)

Soapnut (Sapinduas emarginatus) is one of the most primitive precious useful plants since ancient times. This plant was domesticated due to its multifarious usefulness. The study was conducted in College of Forestry, Sirsi during 2019-20 to know the influence of post scarification storage treatments on seed germination and quality in Sapinduas emarginatus. The seeds were collected from in and around Sirsi area. In soap nut, the basic problem is poor seed germination due to hard seed coat. The seeds were treated with concentrated H2So4 for 12min and stored under laboratory condition for six months. At monthly interval, seed samples were drawn and evaluated for post scarification germination. The germination behaviour remarkably influenced due to scarification and without scarification during experimentation. The untreated seeds recorded the maximum germination (68%) compared to scarified seeds (22.85%).Speed of germination was highest in seed without scarification treatment (2.7) compared to scarified seeds. Mean daily germination was highest in without scarified seeds (1.04) and lowest in the scarified seeds (0.32). Peak value was maximum in without scarified seeds (0.50) compared to scarified seeds (0.22). Seedling vigour index was significantly highest in without scarified seeds (1290) compared to scarified seeds (455). In general, scarified seeds with conc. H2SO4 for 12 min affected seed germination due high conc. H2SO4 because of chemical residues remaining in seed that affects the embryo. As the advancement in storage period the seed coat may lose the integrity so, germination was improved in without scarified seeds.

Impact of climatic variables on the population of Trichoderma sp. in the rhizosphere of black pepper

The present study was undertaken with an objective to determine the impact of climatic variables on the population of Trichoderma sp. in the rhizosphere of black pepper. Rhizosphere soil samples were obtained from pepper plantation at a monthly interval for one year. Trichoderma sp. population were assessed at monthly interval along with weather parameters from July, 2015 to June,2016. The number of Trichoderma sp. were maximum in July and lowest in June. The correlation between weather parameters on the population of Trichoderma sp. revealed that the population increased with an increase in rainfall and relative humidity, whereas it decreased by an increase in temperature. The results of the present studies showed that climatic variables affect the population of Trichoderma sp. in the rhizosphere of black pepper. However, further studies are needed to confirm it.