Quick on the Draw: American Negativity Bias and Costly Signals in International Relations

2021 ◽  
pp. 002200272110401
Author(s):  
Seok Joon Kim
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Small Proportion ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Negativity Bias ◽  
Experimental Result ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Aggressive Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
Psychological Mechanism ◽  
Costly Signals

States signal their intentions to domestic and foreign audiences but are not always believed. Why do people believe some state signals but not others? Using a survey experiment on a representative sample of the US public, this study finds that individuals have a negativity bias when assessing the credibility of state signals. They take other states’ aggressive actions as evidence of deep hostility but are skeptical of the credibility of conciliatory gestures. The experimental result shows that the mobilization of a small proportion of an army is perceived credible enough as an aggressive action, while the removal of even a large proportion is not perceived as conciliatory. The psychological mechanism found here is a strong foundation for theorizing about how individuals process information embedded in state signals and can improve our understanding of signaling.

scholarly journals People Judge Discrimination Against Women More Harshly Than Discrimination Against Men – Does Statistical Fairness Discrimination Explain Why?

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eberhard Feess ◽  
Jan Feld ◽  
Shakked Noy
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Amazon Mechanical Turk ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Labor Market Discrimination ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Mixed Support ◽  
Fairness Judgments ◽  
The Us

Previous research has shown that people care less about men than about women who are left behind. We show that this finding extends to the domain of labor market discrimination: In identical scenarios, people judge discrimination against women more morally bad than discrimination against men. This result holds in a representative sample of the US population and in a larger but not representative sample of Amazon Mechanical Turk (Mturk) respondents. We test if this gender gap is driven by statistical fairness discrimination, a process in which people use the gender of the victim to draw inferences about other characteristics which matter for their fairness judgments. We test this explanation with a survey experiment in which we explicitly hold information about the victim of discrimination constant. Our results provide only mixed support for the statistical fairness discrimination explanation. In our representative sample, we see no meaningful or significant effect of the information treatments. By contrast, in our Mturk sample, we see that providing additional information partly reduces the effect of the victim’s gender on judgment of the discriminator. While people may engage in statistical fairness discrimination, this process is unlikely to be an exhaustive explanation for why discrimination against women is judged as worse.

The crisis of multilateralism and EU–Russia cooperation

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-57
Author(s):  
FRANCO BRUNI ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Multiple Methods ◽  
The Us ◽  
Good For ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

The article is devoted to problems in relations between the EU and Russia. Multiple methods are considered that are aimed at solving the problem of multilateralism in current conditions. The author selected and studied specific documents on essential aspects that are devoted to this topic. Studying the arising problems requires careful consideration since, in the modern world, cooperation between global actors such as the EU and Russia cannot be ignored. Despite all the challenges faced by the parties in their fields, all difficulties are conquerable, and the article provides specific methods for its solving. The article discusses some aspects and problems that require particular attention from specialists in this field. The author concludes that strong US–EU coalition could seem more coherent with history and with the traditional East–West divide. However, the recent evolution of the US attitude towards international relations weakens the probability of such coalition and its perceived payoffs. A more or less defensive Russia–China coalition has been tried with limited results; moreover, if it were possible and probable, the two western players would change their strategy to prevent it or to contain its depth. In fact, we live in a world where many talks of a serious possibility of G2 governance, a peculiar type of coalition where the US and China keep hostile and nationalistic attitudes but join forces to set the global stage in their favor, pursuing a qualitatively limited but quantitatively rich payoff. In such world, as a counterpart of this payoff, both the divided Europe and the economically much smaller Russia would lose power and suffer several kinds of economic disadvantages. Therefore, Greater Europe would be good for Russia and for the EU as well.

scholarly journals Bad World: The Negativity Bias in International Politics

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 96-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic D.P. Johnson ◽  
Dominic Tierney
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Fundamental Principle ◽  
Human Mind ◽  
Negative Information ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Negativity Bias ◽  
Positive Information ◽  
Psychological Phenomena ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
New Research

A major puzzle in international relations is why states privilege negative over positive information. States tend to inflate threats, exhibit loss aversion, and learn more from failures than from successes. Rationalist accounts fail to explain this phenomenon, because systematically overweighting bad over good may in fact undermine state interests. New research in psychology, however, offers an explanation. The “negativity bias” has emerged as a fundamental principle of the human mind, in which people's response to positive and negative information is asymmetric. Negative factors have greater effects than positive factors across a wide range of psychological phenomena, including cognition, motivation, emotion, information processing, decision-making, learning, and memory. Put simply, bad is stronger than good. Scholars have long pointed to the role of positive biases, such as overconfidence, in causing war, but negative biases are actually more pervasive and may represent a core explanation for patterns of conflict. Positive and negative dispositions apply in different contexts. People privilege negative information about the external environment and other actors, but positive information about themselves. The coexistence of biases can increase the potential for conflict. Decisionmakers simultaneously exaggerate the severity of threats and exhibit overconfidence about their capacity to deal with them. Overall, the negativity bias is a potent force in human judgment and decisionmaking, with important implications for international relations theory and practice.

scholarly journals New Age Informality: Hispanics and the Sharing Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Michael J. Pisani
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
New Age ◽  
Sharing Economy ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Informal Work ◽  
Work Activities ◽  
The Us ◽  
Informal Economies ◽  
Nationally Representative

The purpose of this study is to advance understanding of the Hispanic contribution to the engagement and production of the sharing and informal economies in the US. The study is situated within the domains of the sharing economy and informality within a broader frame of entrepreneurship. Specifically, Hispanic participation rates, rationale for engagement, and the major drivers of involvement in the production of the sharing and informal economies are analyzed. To evaluate this, data are reported from a nationally representative subsample of Hispanics derived from the US Federal Reserve Board’s Enterprising and Informal Work Activities Survey (EIWA) conducted in the late fall of 2015. The finding is that more than one-third of Hispanics engage in EIWA. Hispanics participate in EIWA primarily as a means to earn extra income or as a key avenue to earn a living. By choice, relatively affluent Hispanics have the largest stake in sharing and informal economies. However, it is the lowest income Hispanics that engage in EIWA out of necessity. The major drivers of EIWA participation among Hispanics are revealed. This is the first known study with a nationally representative sample of Hispanics focused on participation rates, rationale for engagement, and drivers of involvement in the production of new age sharing and informal economies.

Law and contestation in international negotiations

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 672-690
Author(s):  
Kyle Rapp
Keyword(s):  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
International Relations ◽  
International Law ◽  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
International Negotiations ◽  
The Us ◽  
Legal Grounds

AbstractWhat is the role of rhetoric and argumentation in international relations? Some argue that it is little more than ‘cheap talk’, while others say that it may play a role in persuasion or coordination. However, why states deploy certain arguments, and why these arguments succeed or fail, is less well understood. I argue that, in international negotiations, certain types of legal frames are particularly useful for creating winning arguments. When a state bases its arguments on constitutive legal claims, opponents are more likely to become trapped by the law: unable to develop sustainable rebuttals or advance their preferred policy. To evaluate this theory, I apply qualitative discourse analysis to the US arguments on the crime of aggression at the Kampala Review Conference of the International Criminal Court – where the US advanced numerous arguments intended to reshape the crime to align with US interests. The analysis supports the theoretical propositions – arguments framed on codified legal grounds had greater success, while arguments framed on more political grounds were less sustainable, failing to achieve the desired outcomes. These findings further develop our understanding of the use of international law in rhetoric, argumentation, and negotiation.

scholarly journals Household Food Insecurity, Lung Function, and COPD in US Adults

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 2098
Author(s):  
Francisca de Castro Mendes ◽  
Kirstie Ducharme-Smith ◽  
Gustavo Mora-Garcia ◽  
Saleh A. Alqahtani ◽  
Maria Stephany Ruiz-Diaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Function ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Airflow Obstruction ◽  
Forced Expiratory Volume ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Lung Health

Increasing epidemiological evidence suggests that optimal diet quality helps to improve preservation of lung function and to reduce chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk, but no study has investigated the association of food insecurity (FI) and lung health in the general population. Using data from a representative sample of US adults who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007–2012 cycles, we investigated the association between FI with lung function and spirometrically defined COPD in 12,469 individuals aged ≥ 18 years of age. FI (high vs. low) was defined using the US Department of Agriculture’s Food Security Scale). Population-weighted adjusted regression models were used to investigate associations between FI, and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), their ratio, and spirometrically defined restriction (FVC below the lower limit of normal) and airflow obstruction (COPD). The prevalence of household FI was 13.2%. High household FI was associated with lower FVC (adjusted β-coefficient −70.9 mL, 95% CI −116.6, −25.3), and with higher odds (OR) of spirometric restriction (1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.03). Stratified analyses showed similar effect sizes within specific ethnic groups. High FI was associated with worse lung health in a nationally representative sample of adults in the US.

scholarly journals Trusting relationships in international politics: No need to hedge

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 753-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
VINCENT CHARLES KEATING ◽  
JAN RUZICKA
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trusting Relationships

AbstractHow can trusting relationships be identified in international politics? The recent wave of scholarship on trust in International Relations answers this question by looking for one or the combination of three indicators – the incidence of cooperation; discourses expressing trust; or the calculated acceptance of vulnerability. These methods are inadequate both theoretically and empirically. Distinguishing between the concepts of trust and confidence, we instead propose an approach that focuses on the actors' hedging strategies. We argue that actors either declining to adopt or removing hedging strategies is a better indicator of a trusting relationship than the alternatives. We demonstrate the strength of our approach by showing how the existing approaches would suggest the US-Soviet relationship to be trusting when it was not so. In contrast, the US-Japanese alliance relationship allows us to show how we can identify a developing trusting relationship.

THE FIRST MODERN REALIST: FELIX GILBERT'S MACHIAVELLI AND THE REALIST TRADITION IN INTERNATIONAL THOUGHT

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 681-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
NICOLAS GUILHOT
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Political Science ◽  
International Relations Theory ◽  
Security Studies ◽  
Historical Scholarship ◽  
Global Power ◽  
The Us ◽  
New Interpretation ◽  
International Thought

In the disciplines of political science and international relations, Machiavelli is unanimously considered to be “the first modern realist.” This essay argues that the idea of a realist tradition going from the Renaissance to postwar realism founders when one considers the disrepute of Machiavelli among early international relations theorists. It suggests that the transformation of Machiavelli into a realist thinker took place subsequently, when new historical scholarship, informed by strategic and political considerations related to the transformation of the US into a global power, generated a new picture of the Renaissance. Focusing on the work of Felix Gilbert, and in particular hisMachiavelli and Guicciardini, the essay shows how this new interpretation of Machiavelli was shaped by the crisis of the 1930s, the emergence of security studies, and the philanthropic sponsorship of international relations theory.

scholarly journals Future of US-China Relations: Conflict, Competition or Cooperation?

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Syed Muhammad Saad Zaidi ◽  
Adam Saud
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Eastern Hemisphere ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

In contemporary times, the geo-political agenda and geo-economic strategy of the world is being dominated by the ongoing US-China hegemonic competition. Where the United States is trying to prolong the ‘unipolar moment’ and deter the rise of China; China is trying to establish itself as the hegemon in the Eastern hemisphere, an alternate to the US. The entirely opposite interests of the two Great Powers have initiated a hostile confrontational competition for domination. This paper seeks to determine the future nature of the US-China relations; will history repeat itself and a bloody war be fought to determine the leader of the pack? or another prolonged Cold War will be fought, which will end when one side significantly weakens and collapses? Both dominant paradigms of International Relations, Realism and Liberalism, are used to analyze the future nature of the US-China relations.

scholarly journals The Pandemic and the Crisis in the System of International Relations

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 6-19
Author(s):  
Al. A. Gromyko
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
The Eu

The research is focused on several key problems in the system of international relations influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is shown that the events caused by it and broadly identified as a coronacrisis have a direct impact on the world economic contradictions (pandenomica) and political ones, including the sphere of security. These particular aspects are chosen as the main objects of the research. The author contends that the factor of the pandemic has sharpened the competition between regional and global players and has increased the role of a nation- state. In the conditions of transregional deglobalisation, regionalism and “protectionism 2.0” get stronger under the banners of “strategic vulnerability” and “economic sovereignty”. A further weakening of multilateral international institutions continues. The EU endeavours to secure competitive advantages on the basis of relocalisation, industrial and digital policies and the Green Deal. The article highlights the deterioration in the relations among Russia, the US, the EU and China, the unfolding decoupling between Washington and its European allies, which stimulates the idea of the EU strategic autonomy. An urgent need for the deconfliction in Russia – NATO interaction is stated.

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