Section III. Prospects for the European Union

2002 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 23-33
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Inventory Accumulation

GDP in the Euro Area fell by 0.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2001, the first quarterly decline since 1993. With the notable exception of Spain, output declined or stagnated in all the Euro Area economies that have published GDP figures for the fourth quarter. Germany and Austria experienced a technical recession in the latter half of last year, with two consecutive quarters in which output declined. Outside the Euro Area, Sweden and Denmark both recorded modest growth in the final quarter of the year. In the case of Sweden this stemmed from a weakening of the currency against the euro, while Danish growth was supported by an expansion in government expenditure. The widespread downturn in the Euro Area resulted from further contractions in corporate expenditure. Private sector investment and inventory accumulation made a negative contribution to output growth in 2001 as a whole; in contrast consumers' expenditure remained relatively resilient, especially in France and Spain. Trade contracted markedly towards the end of the year, especially in Germany and France. Export and import volumes in the Euro Area both declined by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of the year. For the year as a whole, net trade made a strong positive contribution to growth, reflecting exceptionally weak import demand in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Finland.

Dramatis Institutiones

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Randall Henning
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European Central ◽  
Regime Complex ◽  
Basic Facts ◽  
Institutional Conflict

The regime complex for crisis finance in the euro area included the European Council, Council of the European Union, and Eurogroup in addition to the three institutions of the troika. As the member states acted largely, though not exclusively, through the council system, these bodies stood at the center of the institutional mix. This chapter reviews the institutions as a prelude to examining the dilemmas that confronted them over the course of the crises. It presents a brief review of some of the basic facts about their origins, membership, and organization. Each section then delves more deeply into these institutions’ governance and principles to understand their capabilities and strategic challenges. As a consequence of different mandates and design, the European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund diverged with respect to their approach to financing, adjustment, conditionality, and debt sustainability. This divergence set the stage for institutional conflict in the country programs.

scholarly journals The Fiscal Compact and the European Constitutions: ‘Europe Speaking German’

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
LB ◽  
JHR
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Fiscal Compact

In between the writing of this editorial and the publication of this issue of EuConst, the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union, in everyday parlance the ‘Fiscal Compact’, will have been signed by the representatives of the governments of the contracting parties — the member states of the European Union minus the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic. The Fiscal Compact is intended to foster budgetary discipline, to strengthen the coordination of economic policies and to improve the governance of the euro area.

Labour Drivers in the Agricultural Sector of the European Union

2022 ◽  
pp. 134-154
Author(s):  
Vítor João Pereira Domingues Martinho
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Social Role ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Social Dimension ◽  
Total Output ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Social ◽  
Labour Input

The social role of the farms is, especially, relevant in the rural areas where the socioeconomic problems are, often, more visible. In this perspective, this study aims to investigate the interrelationships of the labour input with other variables inside the farms and assess how the sector may create more employment in a sustainable way. For that, the labour input was, first, correlated with other farm variables and after analysed through factor analysis approaches and cross-section econometric methodologies, considering as basis the Cobb-Douglas and Verdoorn-Kaldor models. The main findings highlight relevant insights to improve the social dimension of the European Union farms. The labour input growth rate is positively influenced by the total output growth rates and negatively impacted by the total productivity growth. The effects from the investment and from the subsidies are residual or not significant.

EU Institutions Representing Member States’ Governments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenia Dumitriu Segnana ◽  
Alberto de Gregorio Merino
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Central Place ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
National Policies ◽  
Greek Crisis

The Council of the European Union (EU) occupies a central place in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), even more so than in any other Union policies. It exercises in this area a variety of roles going from a forum for coordination of national policies to legislative functions and executive powers. The different crises that affected the Union and in particular the euro area in the last ten years have strengthened its prominent position, in no small part due to the Council’s ownership by the Member States. Alongside the Council, the Euro Group, which is presided by a fixed-term president, has developed itself as the informal forum where Ministers from the Member States whose currency is the euro discuss matters of common interest. Its role has been decisive, in particular in the Cypriot and Greek crisis, which could have put into question the very existence of the euro area as a whole.

Government expenditure and economic growth in the European Union countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Agnė Šimelytė ◽  
Aušra Liučvaitienė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide more reliable estimates of the relationship between government spending and economic growth in the European Union (EU) during the period of 1995-2015. Design/methodology/approach The methodology consisted of several different stages. In the first stage for an assessment of dynamics of government spending and economic growth indicators over two decades, descriptive statistics analysis was employed. Correlation analysis helped to identify the relationships between government expenditures (GEs) and economic growth. In the third stage, for modeling the relationship and the estimation of causality between GE and economic growth, Granger causality testing was applied. Findings The research indicated that eight EU countries have a significant relationship between government spending and economic growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been bounded by general GE and economic growth only. The breakdowns of general GE on the basis of the activities they support have not been considered in this paper, which is the main limitation of the research. Despite the limitation, it might be maintained that the research highlights key relationships in the EU countries. Originality/value These insights might be useful for policy makers. In countries with unidirectional causality running from GE to economic growth, the government can employ expenditure as a factor for growth. The governments should ensure that resources are properly managed and efficiently allocated to accelerate economic growth in the countries with unidirectional causality from GDP to GE.

Prospects for the European Union

2003 ◽  
Vol 186 ◽  
pp. 23-32
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
The European Union ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The World ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Capacity Output

In the first half of this year, the Euro Area economy continued to lag behind much of the rest of the world. After stagnating in the first quarter, GDP contracted by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter following an average quarterly expansion of 0.3 per cent in 2002. The appreciation of the euro is largely to blame for this development, taking a toll on exports. The weak outcome for the first half of the year, coupled with the appreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate by about 6.9 per cent over the same period and weak prospects for private investment, dampens the outlook for the year as a whole. Industrial production declined by 0.4 per cent in August, supporting our assessment that a Euro Area recovery is not yet underway. In light of the most recent evidence, we have revised our estimate for Euro Area growth in 2003 downward to just below ½ per cent. However, we continue to expect a more pronounced pick-up in growth to around 1¾ per cent in 2004, as domestic and external demand both strengthen. Output growth in the Euro Area is projected to return towards trend levels of about 2½-2¾ per cent per annum in 2005. The output gap in the Euro Area is expected to widen further in the second half of 2003, with the economy returning to capacity output in 2006.

scholarly journals WTO Negotiations on Market Access in Agriculture: a Comparison of Alternative Tariff Cut Proposals for the EU and the US

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Christophe Bureau ◽  
Luca Salvatici
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
European Union ◽  
Market Access ◽  
The United States ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu

Abstract This paper provides a summary measure of the possible new commitments in the area of agricultural market access undertaken by the European Union and the United States, using the Trade Restrictiveness Index (TRI) as the tariff aggregator. We take the 2001 bound tariffs as the starting point and attempt to assess how much liberalization in agriculture could be achieved in the European Union and the United States as a result of the present negotiations. We compute the index for 20 agricultural commodity aggregates under the actual commitments assuming a specific functional form for import demand. We compare the present levels of the TRI with three hypothetical cases: a repetition of the same set of tariff cuts commitments of the Uruguay Round according to a EU proposal prior to the 2003 WTO ministerial meeting, a uniform 36% reduction of each tariff, an harmonization ( "Swiss" ) formula based on the initial US proposal.

Section III. Prospects for the European Union

2002 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 25-37
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Stability Pact ◽  
Recent Developments

The outcome for growth in the Euro Area in the first quarter of 2002 was slightly weaker than our April projections. Output rose by 0.3 per cent relative to the previous quarter, following a decline of the same magnitude in the final quarter of last year. The recovery stemmed primarily from a sharp drop in imports of 0.8 per cent, rather than a pickup in domestic or external demand. The weaker outcome for the first quarter, coupled with recent developments in financial markets, dampens the outlook for the year as a whole. Industrial production rose by 0.8 per cent in March, but declined by 0.7 per cent in April and edged up by only 0.1 per cent in May, supporting our expectation that recovery will be gradual. We forecast growth of 1¼ per cent in the Euro Area this year, but anticipate a stronger improvement next year helped by a recovery of domestic demand. This will be supported by tax cuts in several countries, despite the fact that the Euro Area's three largest economies appear unlikely to meet their Stability Pact pledge of achieving a budget at or close to balance by 2004. We expect output in the Euro Area to grow by about 2½ per cent next year, and by about 2½ -2¾ per cent per annum throughout the medium-term.

scholarly journals Risks of a slow-motion EMU reform

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-237
Author(s):  
László Andor
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Slow Motion ◽  
Critical Assessment ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eurozone Crisis ◽  
Pros And Cons

The article provides a critical assessment of how the Economic and Monetary Union was designed, implemented and reformed in the European Union and discusses the risks of a slow-motion reform process. It is argued that the fact that the euro area economy has recovered in the last few years has become a source of complacency and delays. In particular, powerful forces continue to downplay the importance of systemic reconstruction and the risk of disintegration remains high despite the relative tranquillity of markets in the 2014–2018 period. Finally, the article evaluates competing paradigms about the eurozone crisis and the pros and cons of fiscal capacity building.

scholarly journals Recent Patterns of Economic Alignment in the European (Monetary) Union

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 362
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Gehringer ◽  
Jörg König
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
The Common

This paper studies the process of business cycle synchronization in the European Union and the euro area. As our baseline methodology we adopt rolling window correlation coefficients of various economic indicators, observed since 2000. Among the indicators, we distinguish between real economic indicators, like the real GDP growth and unemployment, and nominal indicators, like inflation and government budget. Given the direct implication of this kind of analysis for the common monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), special attention is paid to the pattern of business cycle synchronization in the core and peripheral members of the euro area. Our analysis of quarterly data covering the first two decades of the euro area shows that there was a certain synchronization tendency in the first years of the common currency. However, the European debt crisis halted the economic integration within the European Union and—even more so—within the euro area. Since the ECB can to a large extent intervene only with “one-size-fits-all” monetary policy instruments, this renders increasingly cumbersome the conduct of stabilisation policies within the euro area.

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