scholarly journals Macro Modelling at the NIESR: Its Recent History

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. R15-R23
Author(s):  
S.G. Hall ◽  
S.G.B. Henry
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Data Handling ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

This paper charts the evolution of mainly empirical research at the NIESR over the 1970s and 80s. As was all too evident there were very large discrete technical improvements in data handling and manipulation over this period. Less well appreciated were the effects on the economy of major supply-side shocks coming from the World economy leading to ‘Stagflation’ and, interconnected but somewhat later, in the UK, marked changes in macro policy regime. This latter was strongly influenced by the seminal papers of Lucas (1976) and Sims (1980); both highly critical of the then current practices in macroeconomics, though each having very different intellectual stances. The response in the NIESR was to engage at an early stage in these innovations; applying the mantra that an informed criticism was more efficient than an uninformed one. During this period it became a leader in the econometrics of applied macro modelling under different expectations assumptions, including the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). Throughout, it remained critical of the anti-empirical drift encouraged in the Lucas Critique, criticism borne out more recently by the financial instability of the 1990s and the crisis that followed.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 26-38
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
West Germany ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Minor Extent

The recovery in the OECD area gathered pace in the second quarter, when its total GDP probably increased by as much as 1 per cent. The rise was, however, heavily concentrated in North America and particularly the US. There may well have been a slight fall in Western Europe, where the level of industrial production hardly changed and increases in gross product in West Germany and, to a minor extent, in France were outweighed by falls in Italy and (according to the expenditure measure) the UK.

The World Economy

1997 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 28-56
Author(s):  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Florence Hubert
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Uk

There are now widespread signs that activity in the world economy has begun to recover steadily from the pause in growth apparent at the beginning of 1996. Output rose by 0.6 per cent in the North American economies in the third quarter of last year and by 0.8 per cent in Europe. Business and consumer sentiment has improved gradually in recent months in most of the major economies. We expect world economic growth to pick up further over the course of this year as the contractionary effects from the downturn in world trade and prolonged inventory adjustment come to an end and as the effects from a more relaxed monetary stance begin to outweigh those from ongoing fiscal consolidation. Recent currency movements should help to stimulate external demand in Germany, France and Japan, but may act to constrain growth within the UK, Italy and the US. For both this year and 1998 we expect growth of around 2½ per cent per annum in the OECD economies.

scholarly journals TESTING RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN MALAYSIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chin-Hong Puah ◽  
Shirly Siew-Ling Wong ◽  
Venus Khim-Sen Liew
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Real World ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Thinking

The application of rational expectations hypothesis (REH) in macroeconomic research has marked a revolution in economic thinking, and the magnitude of its impact on the world of economics is undeniably significant. However, the extent to which REH applies in real-world settings is ambiguous even though the concept of REH is well established in economics literature because empirical evidence from previous studies is clearly mixed. This study used survey data on gross revenue and capital expenditures to examine the validity of REH in Malaysian manufacturing business expectations. Empirical results indicated that the manufacturers’ expectations are being irrationally constructed in terms of gross revenue predictions but comply with REH properties in Muth's sense in the case of capital expenditures forecasts. Therefore, manufacturing firms in Malaysia are encouraged to incorporate more relevant information into their gross revenue predictions to provide more accurate and realistic forecasting.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 21-32
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Sustained Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The growth of US GNP, which in the first quarter was responsible for the greater part of an increase of the order of 1½ per cent in the output of the whole OECD area, slowed down somewhat in the second quarter but it was still exceptionally fast. With the help mainly of sustained growth in Japan it probably kept total OECD output growing, despite the depressing effects of major strikes in West Germany and the UK. The deceleration in the US mainly reflected a reduction in stockbuilding, which in the first quarter had made the biggest contribution to the growth of demand both there and in West Germany and France.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1976 ◽  
Vol 77 ◽  
pp. 33-49
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
To Come

It is now clear that output in the OECD countries rose even faster in the early stage of the recovery than we had previously supposed. Between the third quarter of 1975 and the first quarter of 1976 their aggregate GDP appears to have increased at an annual rate of 7 per cent and their industrial production at 12 per cent. By the second quarter, however, stock movements were probably making a substantially smaller contribution to the expansion of demand. The rate of growth of industrial production has slowed down considerably since the spring and the same is probably true of GDP, particularly in view of the effects of the drought on European agricultural output. By the second half of next year we expect the deceleration to become more pronounced in the major countries, particularly the United States. The smaller countries have, however, been lagging behind their bigger trading partners in the recent cycle and their phase of rapid recovery is probably yet to come. In all we expect OECD countries' aggregate GDP to increase in volume by 5½–6 per cent this year and 5 per cent in 1977.

The World Economy: The impact of rising oil prices and weak equity markets on global growth

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 8-13
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

In interesting times several things may happen simultaneously, and they may have connected roots. The financial turmoil that developed initially in the US banking sector had its roots in financial innovation that had made available cheap finance and increased demand for housing. This wave of low cost finance had spread to Europe, and house prices rose in a correlated way. The increase in demand in the world economy that resulted from strong growth in lending and high asset values helped raise output growth outside the OECD, and this in turn put upward pressure on oil prices. Markets sometimes work slowly, and the effects of the increase in demand on prices appear to be coming through just as the asset bubble is collapsing. The sequence of events was not inevitable, as low personal sector saving in the US and the UK as well as elsewhere could have been offset by tighter fiscal policy, and better prudential regulation of lenders would also definitely have helped. The desire to move financial regulation from the central bank, as in the UK, may have been for good, competition based, reasons, but it has meant that financial sector oversight has not taken account of the macroeconomic implications of a wave of lending that rested on risky financial innovation and therefore it has not properly addressed the issue of systemic risk (see Barrell and Davis, 2005). The resulting financial turmoil has meant that banks have made losses, and have been unable to trust each other's solvency when making deals. As a result three month interbank rates have risen well above central bank intervention rates, as can be seen in figure 1.

scholarly journals Challenges of Working From Homein Persistent Covid-19 Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-97
Author(s):  
Chinnaiah. P.M ◽  
◽  
Smt. Chythra P ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
The World

The IT sector is one of the important sectors that contribute to the growth of Indian economy. The Industry adopted many measures to achieve a higher level of performance and to sustain their higher market share; one of such measures is working from Home (WFH). The Covid-19 pandemic badly affected the world economy. Therefore, to sustain the work progress the IT firms across the glove have adopted WFH method. Though there are many studies conducted to identify the challenges of working from home in the early stage of the covid-19. But, there are scant studies those who made attempt to identify the challenges of working from home and changes in these challenges in the persistent covid-19 environment. In the present study it is found that, there are seven challenges remain same as in the early stage of pandemic and eight previously identified challenges have changed into moderate challenges

scholarly journals Economics of the Financial Crisis: Any Lessons for the Pandemic Downturn and Beyond?

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-121
Author(s):  
Hamid Elyassi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Political Liberalization ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Economic Growth

The world economy entered the third decade of this century with uncertainties and challenges of COVID-19 pandemic before it had fully recovered from the lingering aftereffects of the financial crisis. The financial crisis ended a period of overall global economic growth and price stability during which globalization and its principles of trade, economic and political liberalization were widely held as the emerging international economic and political order. In domestic economy, most countries favored supply-side economics and monetary policy in a free-market setting. This paper appeals to economic logic and empirical evidence to critically study external and internal economic processes and policies particularly of major world economies to identify what caused the unanticipated onset of the banking crash and why the ensuing persistent downturn defied remedial measures. It concludes that major trading powers departed from their declared commitment to free trade and its basic rules with no effective institutional safeguards and deterrents. Internally, absence of efficient monitoring and supervision of workings of nominal and real sectors allowed anomalies to develop within the market economy unnoticed. As regards inefficacy of policies against several years of stagnation, the paper discusses asymmetric performance of monetary tools and problematic application of fiscal policy to suggest revisiting supply-side and Keynesian approaches against their past performance and forge an eclectic kit of analytical and policy tools alongside the necessary organizational reforms.

Disciplining the Hegemon

2021 ◽  
pp. 138-163
Author(s):  
Julian Germann
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Carter Administration ◽  
Organized Labor ◽  
Japanese Investment ◽  
External Pressures ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Anglo American ◽  
The Uk

This chapter argues that in order to protect its export model from the dangers of imported inflation, Germany strove to commit the US to monetary and fiscal rigor. To this end, German officials blocked the attempts of the Carter administration to organize a global Keynesian expansion, and scaled back their foreign exchange interventions in support of a weakening dollar. Both actions helped push the US into the Volcker Shock, which deflated the world economy and launched the attack on organized labor. The chapter concludes that the neoliberal experiment in the US, paralleled and reinforced by similar attempts in the UK, was late and lucky. Rather than the outcome of a decade-long domestic shift—seamless and sealed off from the world outside the Anglo-American heartland—the neoliberal counter-revolution was driven in part by the external pressures imposed by Germany, and subsequently sustained by a bout of Japanese investment.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 27-52
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
East Asia ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Regional Impact ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
The Uk

Indications from the first half of the year suggested that the present cyclical expansion was starting to slow in much of the OECD. The pace of activity moderated particularly sharply in North America. Canadian GDP fell slightly in the second quarter of the year and inventory levels rose considerably. Trade growth was also lower than expected, although this partially reflected the regional impact of recent developments in Mexico. Within Europe, GDP growth slowed in the UK, France and Italy, although growth proved unexpectedly robust in a number of the smaller economies, particularly Ireland, Sweden and Finland. Output also continued to grow sharply in Australia and South East Asia.

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