Chapter I. The Home Economy

1982 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
pp. 6-28 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Interest ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
The Impact

This chapter is in two main parts: the first gives a brief account of developments in the economy in 1981; the second contains the short-term forecast to end-1983. In addition, two short notes are appended addressed to topics of particular current interest and concern: the impact of the recession on company profitability and liquidity and recent trends in productivity.

Chapter I. the Home Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 103 ◽  
pp. 6-29
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
The Past ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Economic Developments

This chapter is in two main parts. The first contains a survey of economic developments in 1982. It begins with a brief account of economic policy; succeeding sections deal with output and demand, inflation, and the balance of payments. It concludes with a discussion of the experience of individual industries over the past year, and since the beginning of recession in 1979. The second part of the chapter contains a short-term forecast to end-1984.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 6-26
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
The World

This chapter is in two parts. The first part contains discussion of the current situation and a short-term forecast to end-1986. The second part looks at the medium term. It begins with an analysis of probable trends in public expenditure over the next five years. The NIESR econometric model is then used to analyse medium-term prospects for the home economy. The medium-term outlook for the rest of the world is discussed in chapter II.

Chapter I. the Home Economy

1982 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 6-26
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
General Account ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Recent Developments

This chapter contains a brief general account of recent developments in the economy and a short-term forecast to end-1984. (A medium-term assessment is given in chapter 3.) Since our last forecast, published in the May issue, we have re-estimated, and in some cases also re-specified, many sectors of our econometric model. This has inevitably changed some of its properties.Two short notes are appended. The first discusses the company sector's current financial position and the implications of the forecast for profitability. The second describes the data on wage settlements which we compile as part of our regular assessment of trends in wages and earnings.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1974 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 9-45
Keyword(s):  
Current Issue ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
General Review ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
February Issue

The February issue of the Review was affected by the energy situation as to both length and the need for special treatment of the oil situation. Much material of the kind normally included in the pre-Budget issue was therefore omitted. For this reason the current issue contains rather more material than usual on the domestic economy in the form of a review of economic events over the last 12-18 months. A general review (pages 9-14) is followed by an assessment of various forecasts of the economy in 1973 (page 14) and then some discussion of the behaviour of prices and incomes since the introduction of the counter-inflation policy in November 1972 (page 17). Balance of payments developments are discussed on page 22. An analysis of trade and other developments since the United Kingdom's entry into the EEC begins on page 24 and the normal short-term forecast appears on pages 28-45.

scholarly journals Deep RNN-Based Photovoltaic Power Short-Term Forecast Using Power IoT Sensors

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 436
Author(s):  
Hyung Keun Ahn ◽  
Neungsoo Park
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pv Power Generation

Photovoltaic (PV) power fluctuations caused by weather changes can lead to short-term mismatches in power demand and supply. Therefore, to operate the power grid efficiently and reliably, short-term PV power forecasts are required against these fluctuations. In this paper, we propose a deep RNN-based PV power short-term forecast. To reflect the impact of weather changes, the proposed model utilizes the on-site weather IoT dataset and power data, collected in real-time. We investigated various parameters of the proposed deep RNN-based forecast model and the combination of weather parameters to find an accurate prediction model. Experimental results showed that accuracies of 5 and 15 min ahead PV power generation forecast, using 3 RNN layers with 12 time-step, were 98.0% and 96.6% based on the normalized RMSE, respectively. Their R2-scores were 0.988 and 0.949. In experiments for 1 and 3 h ahead of PV power generation forecasts, their accuracies were 94.8% and 92.9%, respectively. Also, their R2-scores were 0.963 and 0.927. These experimental results showed that the proposed deep RNN-based short-term forecast algorithm achieved higher prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals The impact of lightning and radar data assimilation on the performance of very short term rainfall forecast for two case studies in Italy

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Federico ◽  
Rosa Claudia Torcasio ◽  
Elenio Avolio ◽  
Olivier Caumont ◽  
Mario Montopoli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
First Case ◽  
Factor Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reflectivity Factor

Abstract. In this paper, we study the impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the precipitation VSF (Very Short-term Forecast, 3 hours in this study) for two relevant case studies occurred over Italy. The first case refers to a moderate localised rainfall over Central Italy happened on 16 September 2017. The second case, occurred on 09 and 10 September 2017, was very intense and caused damages in several parts of Italy, while nine people died around Livorno, in Tuscany. The first case study was missed by most operational forecasts over Italy, including that performed by the model used in this paper, while the Livorno case was partially predicted by operational models. We use the RAMS@ISAC model (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System at Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the Italian National Research Council), whose 3D-Var extension to the assimilation of RADAR reflectivity factor is shown in this paper. Results for the two cases show that the assimilation of lightning and radar reflectivity factor, especially when used together, have a significant and positive impact on the precipitation forecast. The improvement compared to the control model, not assimilating lightning and radar reflectivity factor, is systematic because occurs for all the Very Short-term Forecast (VSF, 3h) of the events considered. For specific time intervals, the data assimilation is of practical importance for Civil Protection purposes because it transforms a missed forecast of intense precipitation (> 40 mm/3h) in a correct forecast. While there is an improvement of the rainfall VSF thanks to the lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation, its impact is reduced by the increase of the false alarms in the forecast assimilating both types of data.

scholarly journals Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (9) ◽  
pp. 3191-3204
Author(s):  
N. C. Privé ◽  
R. M. Errico
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Adjoint Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Adjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short-term forecast quality is the choice of verification fields. The use of self-analysis fields for verification is typical but incestuous, and it introduces uncertainty resulting from biases and errors in the analysis field. In this study, an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is used to explore the uncertainty in adjoint model estimations of observation impact. The availability of the true state for verification in the OSSE framework in the form of the nature run allows calculation of the observation impact without the uncertainties present in self-analysis verification. These impact estimates are compared with estimates calculated using self-analysis verification. The Global Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), forecast model with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system is used with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) OSSE capability. The adjoint model includes moist processes, with total wet energy selected as the norm for evaluation of observation impacts. The results show that there are measurable but small errors in the adjoint model estimation of observation impact as a result of self-analysis verification. In general, observations of temperature and winds tend to have overestimated impacts with self-analysis verification while observations of humidity and moisture-affected observations tend to have underestimated impacts. The small magnitude of the differences in impact estimates supports the robustness of the adjoint method of estimating observation impacts.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1985 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 6-32
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
The World

This chapter is in two parts. The first part contains discussion of the current situation and a short-term forecast to end-1987. The second part looks at the medium term, beginning with an analysis of probable trends in public expenditure over the next five years. The medium-term outlook for the rest of the world is discussed in chapter II.

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