Prediction of Outstanding Achievement in the Natural Sciences
The Institute for Test Development and Talent Research is conducting a longitudinal study which started in 1973 on a nationally representative sample of 9,000 persons who then graduated from upper secondary sehool and were followed up ever since at five-to-six-year intervals. Out of this sample and, in addition, out of the former scholars of the most selective German national scholarship program, 40 persons were identified who had, by their mid-thirties and later on, achieved outstanding and influential research results in the natural scienees. This group was compared with the total representative group in terms of a number of potential predictor variables. The most distinctive features were: The outstanding scientists had achieved much higher performance both in sehool and in university. They pursued to a higher extent curricular and extracurricular interests in the areas of natural sciences and mathematics during adolescence. They were much more inclined to tackle intellectual problems (and did so more sucessfully), and they participated more frequently in academic competitions. They had and have a much higher professional motivation: their career decisions were more heavily based on intrinsic and achievement-oriented motives, and the average time per week they devote to their work is considerably higher.