Rivalry, Instability, and the Probability of International Conflict

2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 543-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ursula E. Daxecker

This article addresses the effect of political instability and domestic conflict on the probability of militarized interstate disputes. Existing research on the subject has produced inconsistent findings. I hypothesize that the effect of political instability on international disputes is conditional on states’ involvement in civil conflict. More specifically, I argue that while political instability provides leaders with the willingness to use force, civil war creates the necessary opportunities for initiating conflict abroad. A directed-dyad analysis of international rivals for the 1816–2000 time period shows that instability coupled with civil war increases the probability of militarized interstate dispute initiation among rival states. Results are consistent for alternative indicators of political instability and civil war.

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas M. Gibler ◽  
Erin K. Little

We examine a major source of heterogeneity across cases in the Correlates of War Militarized Interstate Dispute Dataset, 1816–2001, and demonstrate that this variation across cases biases most analyses of conflict. Disputes are coded using two logics—the familiar state-to-state militarized action represents one case while the second relies on sponsor governments to protest state targeting of private citizens. We show that the latter introduces additional measurement bias and does not match well the original conceptualization of what constituted a dispute. The protest-dependent cases are caused by different processes, and omitting them from analyses provides truer estimates of the effects of most conflict predictors. We find that previous controls for heterogeneity in the dispute data—such as using fatal militarized interstate disputes only—substantially underestimates the dangerous effects of contiguity and the pacifying effects of regime similarity. We also show that governments are seldom willing to risk militarized conflict for private citizens during these unique cases. We provide a list of the protest-dependent cases for future conflict analyses.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 455-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Ariel Aaronson ◽  
M. Rodwan Abouharb ◽  
K. Daniel Wang

We use both qualitative and quantitative tools to examine whether membership in the WTO reduces the likelihood of conflict. In our qualitative analysis, we show how WTO facilitates cooperation and transparency. Then we study what policymakers say and do to use trade to promote peace. We also examine whether and how members of the WTO respond to acceding states as well as member states experiencing inter-state conflict. We find member states do little to expand trade with states in conflict. Moreover, they continue to use trade sanctions. Hence, they are sending contradictory messages about the trade/peace relationship. Next we test whether the trust engendered through daily interactions and participation in a rules based system (our membership hypothesis) reduces the likelihood of conflict or whether membership in the WTO which in turn leads to expanded trade reduces the likelihood of conflict (our membership and trade hypothesis). We find no evidence that membership alone reduces the likelihood of either major interstate war or militarized interstate dispute among members. However, when states are both members of the GATT/WTO and benefit from increased trade, they are less likely to engage in militarized interstate disputes. Hence, the liberal illusion is not a complete delusion.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjell Hausken ◽  
Mthuli Ncube

We consider revolutions and civil war involving an incumbent, a challenger, and the population. Revolutions are classified into eight outcomes. In four outcomes incumbent repression occurs (viewed as providing sub-threshold benefits such as public goods to the population). Accommodation occurs in the other four outcomes (benefits provision above a threshold). The incumbent and challenger fight each other. The incumbent may win and retain power or else lose, thereby causing standoff or coalition. In a standoff, which is costly, no one backs down and uncertainty exists about who is in power. In a coalition, which is less costly, the incumbent and challenger cooperate, compromise, and negotiate their differences. If the population successfully revolts against the incumbent, the challenger replaces the incumbent. Eighty-seven revolutions during 1961–2011, including the recent Arab spring revolutions, are classified into the eight outcomes. When repressive, the incumbent loses 46 revolutions, remains in power through 21 revolutions, and builds a coalition after 12 revolutions. When accommodative, the incumbent loses seven revolutions and builds a coalition after one revolution. The 87 revolutions are classified across geographic regions and by time-period.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 142-156
Author(s):  
A. Yu. Timofeev

The article considers the perception of World War II in modern Serbian society. Despite the stability of Serbian-Russian shared historical memory, the attitudes of both countries towards World wars differ. There is a huge contrast in the perception of the First and Second World War in Russian and Serbian societies. For the Serbs the events of World War II are obscured by the memories of the Civil War, which broke out in the country immediately after the occupation in 1941 and continued several years after 1945. Over 70% of Yugoslavs killed during the Second World War were slaughtered by the citizens of former Kingdom of Yugoslavia. The terror unleashed by Tito in the first postwar decade in 1944-1954 was proportionally bloodier than Stalin repressions in the postwar USSR. The number of emigrants from Yugoslavia after the establishment of the Tito's dictatorship was proportionally equal to the number of refugees from Russia after the Civil War (1,5-2% of prewar population). In the post-war years, open manipulations with the obvious facts of World War II took place in Tito's Yugoslavia. In the 1990s the memories repressed during the communist years were set free and publicly debated. After the fall of the one-party system the memory of World War II was devalued. The memory of the Russian-Serbian military fraternity forged during the World War II began to revive in Serbia due to the foreign policy changes in 2008. In October 2008 the President of Russia paid a visit to Serbia which began the process of (re) construction of World War II in Serbian historical memory. According to the public opinion surveys, a positive attitude towards Russia and Russians in Serbia strengthens the memories on general resistance to Nazism with memories of fratricide during the civil conflict events of 1941-1945 still dominating in Serbian society.


2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 347-372
Author(s):  
Scott Y. Lin ◽  
Carlos Seiglie

AbstractStudying the determinants of international conflict, researchers have found a series of influential variables, but few have addressed the robustness of the results to changes in the definition of the dependent variable, conflict. The two main sources for operationalizing conflict in empirical work are data on militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) and events data. In this paper, we find that a χ2-test indicates a correlation between events data and MIDs data. However, detailed regression analysis indicates that there are some contradictory findings depending on whether we use events data as opposed to MIDs data to measure conflict.


2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 306-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmela Lutmar ◽  
Lesley G Terris

Leaders and leadership changes are found to influence states’ foreign policy decisions, in particular with respect to war and peace between states. Although this issue is also addressed in the qualitative literature on intrastate wars, the influence of leadership turnovers in civil war has received limited systematic attention. One reason for this is the scarcity of quantitative data on rebel group leaderships. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive dataset on leadership changes in rebel groups, 1946–2010, organized by rebel-month. The effects of leadership changes among parties engaged in civil war are argued to be more complex than those found in interstate disputes. In this article we present our theoretical argument followed by presentation of the variables in the dataset and descriptive statistics. To demonstrate the potential research value of the dataset we examine the impact of leader shifts on civil war settlement in Africa. We conclude with avenues for future research which might benefit from this dataset.


Author(s):  
Dari Escandell

Resum: L’escriptor valencià Víctor Labrado (Sueca, 1956) s’ha erigit com un dels grans referents contemporanis en el camp de la novel·la de no-ficció en català, subgènere narratiu que conjumina la intenció metanovel·lesca amb fidedignes discursos testimonials. Ara bé, ¿les obres cabdals de Labrado –peculiars, idiosincràtiques i gens usuals– poden ser considerades també, sense subterfugis ni matisos, novel·la històrica? A grans trets: trames guerracivilistes empeltades d’entrevistes, dosis generoses de periodisme documental i absència gairebé absoluta de ficció. La tècnica i l’estil propi no suposen, però, cap impediment perquè molts llibres seus siguen alhora novel·la històrica, si fem cas dels topoi convinguts per la crítica especialitzada. No debades, aquests exemplars esdevenen, al capdavall, testimoni viu d’un temps passat; vivències i peripècies de gent anònima que rescaten de l’oblit, des de la particularitat més universal, la realitat valenciana d’un segle passat vilment estigmatitzat pel conflicte civil de l’any 1936 i la dictadura consegüent. ¿N’hi ha prou amb això, però, perquè aquesta etiqueta o clixé siga atribuïble també a la resta de la seua obra i trajectòria? El present article analitza a nivell tècnic, argumental i conceptual els llibres essencials de Labrado per tal de determinar quina part de la seua novel·lística sense ficció pot o no considerar-se al seu torn novel·la històrica.Paraules clau: Víctor Labrado, novel·la sense ficció, novel·la històrica, literatura catalana, valencià.Abstract: The Valencian writer Víctor Labrado (Sueca, 1956) has emerged as one of the great contemporary references in the field of the non-fiction novel in Catalan, a narrative subgenre that combines the fictional intention with real testimonial speeches. However, can Labrado’s capital books –peculiar, idiosyncratic and unusual– be considered also, without subterfuges or hints, historical novels? Broadly speaking: are his Spanish civil war plots grafted with interviews, generous doses of documentary journalism and almost absolute absence of fiction, historical novels? Its techniques and style are no impediment to say so, if we pay attention to the topoi agreed by the specialized critic. In fact, these novels become, in short, a living testimony of our past time: they rescue from oblivion the experiences and adventures of anonymous people, from the most universal particularity, and the Valencian reality of a past century stigmatized by the civil conflict of 1936 and the consequent dictatorship. Is that enough, however, to attribute this label to the rest of his literary works? This paper analyses the techniques, the plots and the concepts of Labrado’s essential books to determine what part of his nonfiction novels may or may not be considered historical.Keywords: Víctor Labrado, nonfiction novel, historical novel, Catalan literature, Valencian


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document