The MID5 Dataset, 2011–2014: Procedures, coding rules, and description

This article introduces the latest iteration of the most widely used dataset on interstate conflicts, the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) 5 dataset. We begin by outlining the data collection process used in the MID5 project. Next, we discuss some of the most challenging cases that we coded and some updates to the coding manual that resulted. Finally, we provide descriptive statistics for the new years of the MID data.

Hot under the collar: A latent measure of interstate hostility

The majority of studies on international conflict escalation use a variety of measures of hostility including the use of force, reciprocity, and the number of fatalities. The use of different measures, however, leads to different empirical results and creates difficulties when testing existing theories of interstate conflict. Furthermore, hostility measures currently used in the conflict literature are ill suited to the task of identifying consistent predictors of international conflict escalation. This article presents a new dyadic latent measure of interstate hostility, created using a Bayesian item-response theory model and conflict data from the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) and Phoenix political event datasets. This model (1) provides a more granular, conceptually precise, and validated measure of hostility, which incorporates the uncertainty inherent in the latent variable; and (2) solves the problem of temporal variation in event data using a varying-intercept structure and human-coded data as a benchmark against which biases in machine-coded data are corrected. In addition, this measurement model allows for the systematic evaluation of how existing measures relate to the construct of hostility. The presented model will therefore enhance the ability of researchers to understand factors affecting conflict dynamics, including escalation and de-escalation processes.

Biding time versus timely retreat: Asymmetric dependence, issue salience, and conflict duration

Trade-conflict studies focus on whether and how economic interdependence suppresses interstate conflict initiation. Meanwhile, formal theories of war show that conflict initiation is inherently tied to its termination. In this article, I seek to bridge the two literature by utilizing a war of attrition model to formalize the relationship between economic dependence and conflict duration. I theorize that the strategic calculation ultimately comes down to a trade-off between biding one’s time and retreating in a timely manner. In the context of economic attrition, states weigh the relative costs of suffering an additional round of economic disruption against the potential benefits of winning the disputed good. As such, economic dependence can have both coercive and informational effects and these effects are contingent upon issue salience. When the issue salience is low, the coercive effect dominates; states are more likely to quit conflicts as they suffer proportionally larger economic costs. When the issue salience is high enough, the informational effect can kick in; states are less likely to quit conflicts with increasing economic costs. I test these implications on the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) and the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) data, finding strong support for the informational effect and suggestive evidence for the coercive one.

The Militarized Interstate Dispute Dataset: Putting Things in Perspective

In their latest research note in our ongoing dialogue about the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) dataset, Gibler, Miller, and Little (GML) reiterate their concerns about a high error rate in the MID dataset and challenge our prior replication studies, which showed that GML's recommended changes to the dataset caused few substantive changes in the core findings of two published studies. In this rejoinder, we offer further explanation of our decision-making, put GML's claims about the error rate in context, defend our replication methodology and results, and offer advice for MID dataset users.

Using Word Order in Political Text Classification with Long Short-term Memory Models

Political scientists often wish to classify documents based on their content to measure variables, such as the ideology of political speeches or whether documents describe a Militarized Interstate Dispute. Simple classifiers often serve well in these tasks. However, if words occurring early in a document alter the meaning of words occurring later in the document, using a more complicated model that can incorporate these time-dependent relationships can increase classification accuracy. Long short-term memory (LSTM) models are a type of neural network model designed to work with data that contains time dependencies. We investigate the conditions under which these models are useful for political science text classification tasks with applications to Chinese social media posts as well as US newspaper articles. We also provide guidance for the use of LSTM models.

Dangerous weapons : arms transfer, interstate conflict, and dependence

This study is an attempt to contribute to the international security literature by illuminating why countries bolster their own security by acquiring weapons from other countries, how these acquisitions affect their propensity to initiate interstate conflict, and what policies do they adopt so as to prevent overdependence on external suppliers. I begin by demonstrating that arms transfer literature is overly focused on the suppliers' perspective. Therefore, I clarify the motivations that drive a country to import weapons. Next, I tie these motivations with the likelihood of a country taking aggressive action against its neighbor and empirically this proposition. Subsequently, I compare arms transfer with alliances which is known in the literature as a substitute to arming. I find that arms imports do increase both 'opportunity' and 'willingness' of recipients to initiate a militarized interstate dispute but that alliances in the presence of arms imports do not have any significant effect. Finally, I use case studies of India and China to illustrate on two divergent paths to mitigating the effects of overreliance on overseas arms suppliers. In the course of this investigation I uncover the economic, political, bureaucratic, ideological, and foreign policy that drive countries' arms importing behavior. The study aims to provide a more complete picture of the worldwide arms trade by highlighting the recipients' perspective which was thus far missing from the literature.

Updating the Militarized Interstate Dispute Data: A Response to Gibler, Miller, and Little

In a recent article, Gibler, Miller, and Little (2016) (GML) conduct an extensive review of the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) data between the years 1816 and 2001, highlighting possible inaccuracies and recommending a substantial number of changes to the data. They contend that, in several instances, analyses with their revised data lead to substantively different inferences. Here, we review GML's MID drop and merge recommendations and reevaluate the substantive impact of their changes. We are in agreement with about 76 percent of the recommended drops and merges. However, we find that some of the purported overturned findings in GML's replications are not due to their data, but rather to the strategies they employ for replication. We reexamine these findings and conclude that the remaining differences in inference stemming from the variations in the MID data are rare and modest in scope.

Autocracies and the international sources of cooperation

Under what conditions do autocracies peacefully settle disputes? Existing studies tend to focus on the domestic factors that shape conflict initiation. In this article, I show how domestic institutions interact with international institutions to produce more cooperative outcomes. Particularly, this study argues that as autocracies become more central in the network of liberal institutions such as preferential trade agreements (PTAs), they are less likely to initiate a militarized interstate dispute (MID). As a state becomes more democratic, the effect of centrality within the PTA network on the peaceful dispute settlement dissipates. This is because greater embeddedness in the PTA regime is associated with enhanced transparency for autocracies, which allows autocracies to mitigate ex ante informational problems in dispute resolution. Using a dataset of MID initiation from 1965 to 1999, this study finds robust empirical support for the aforementioned hypothesis. Moreover, the results are substantively significant. Further analysis into the causal mechanisms at work provides evidence in favor of the information mechanism. Autocrats who are more embedded in the PTA network tend to have higher levels of economic transparency and economic transparency itself is associated with lower rates of conflict initiation. The results suggest that an autocrat’s structural position within the international system can help to peacefully settle its disputes.