Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy

Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short- and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime- and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups.

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Organization, operations, and success of environmental organized crime in Italy and India: A comparative analysis

European Journal of Criminology ◽

10.1177/1477370816649627 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 160-182 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Aunshul Rege ◽

Anita Lavorgna

Keyword(s):

Comparative Analysis ◽

Organized Crime ◽

Research Area ◽

Sand Mining ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Operational Practices ◽

Organized Crime Groups ◽

Organizational Mechanisms ◽

Environmental Crimes

Despite the devastating short- and long-term consequences of resource-related environmental crimes, rampant illegal soil and sand mining continues worldwide. In countries such as India and Italy, organized crime groups have emerged as prominent illegal suppliers of soil and sand. The proposed study focuses on an understudied research area at the intersection between organized crime and environmental crimes, and offers a trans-comparative study of illegal soil and sand mining conducted by Indian and Italian organized crime groups with two main objectives. First, a comparative analysis of the organizational mechanisms, operational practices, threat management, and supporting cultural, regulatory, and policing factors is conducted. Second, a discussion of how these groups reflect mainstream models and theories of organized crime is offered.

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THE POWER OF TESTS: A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE USES OF LANGUAGE TESTS.Elana Shohamy. London: Longman, 2001. Pp. xxvi + 182. £18.99 paper.

Studies in Second Language Acquisition ◽

10.1017/s0272263102244058 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 24 (4) ◽

pp. 644-645 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

April Ginther

Keyword(s):

School Administrators ◽

Educational Institutions ◽

Motivating Factors ◽

Critical Perspective ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Power Of Tests ◽

Language Tests ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Long Term Consequences

In the introduction to The power of tests: A critical perspective on the uses of language tests, Elana Shohamy raises the following questions: What is the meaning of a test for test takers, parents, teachers, and school administrators? What are the short- and long-term consequences of tests on the lives of individuals? What are the motivating factors behind the administration of language tests? What are the politics of the tests? These kinds of questions logically arise when the examination of testing includes a concern with the use of tests by educational institutions, policy makers, and society at large. Focusing primarily on the misuse of tests, this volume chronicles both intended and unintended test consequences.

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Preventing Contrast-induced Renal Failure: A Guide

Interventional Cardiology Review ◽

10.15420/icr.2016:10:2 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 98 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Michela Faggioni ◽

◽

Roxana Mehran ◽

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Renal Damage ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Kidney Injury ◽

Coronary Intervention ◽

Kidney Dysfunction ◽

Percutaneous Coronary ◽

Patients At Risk ◽

Short And Long Term

Contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) is characterised by a rapid deterioration of renal function within a few days of parenteral administration of contrast media (CM) in the absence of alternative causes. CI-AKI is the most common form of iatrogenic kidney dysfunction with an estimated prevalence of 12 % in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Although usually selfresolving, in patients with pre-existing chronic kidney disease (CKD) or concomitant risk factors for renal damage, CI-AKI is associated with increased short- and long-term morbidity and mortality. Therefore, risk stratification based on clinical and peri-procedural characteristics is crucial in selecting patients at risk of CI-AKI who would benefit the most from implementation of preventive measures.

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Analysis of Risk Factors Associated with Outcomes in Road Traffic Injury Patients with Acute Lung Injury

Journal of International Medical Research ◽

10.1177/147323000903700327 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 37 (3) ◽

pp. 835-840

Author(s):

L Sheng ◽

J-S Wu ◽

M Zhang ◽

S-W Xu ◽

J-X Gan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Acute Lung Injury ◽

Lung Injury ◽

Road Traffic ◽

Road Traffic Injury ◽

Apache Ii Score ◽

Factors Associated ◽

Traffic Injury ◽

Short And Long Term

Over 50% of road traffic injury (RTI) patients experience post-traumatic acute lung injury (ALI) and it is, therefore, extremely important to identify the risk factors related to the poor outcomes associated with ALI in RTI populations. This study evaluated 19 potential risk factors associated with the outcomes of ALI in 366 RTI patients. They were divided into two groups: a ‘favourable outcomes group’ and an ‘unfavourable outcomes group’. The results indicated that the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and the presence of gastrointestinal haemorrhage may help predict the outcomes of ALI in the early post-trauma phase of treatment. The duration of trauma and sepsis were shown to impact strongly on both the short- and long-term outcomes of ALI. Age (≥ 65 years) and disseminated intravascular coagulation in the early RTI phase were also independent risk factors for a poorer short- and long-term outcome in ALI.

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Epidemiology of Major Lower Extremity Amputations in Individuals With Diabetes in Austria, 2014-2017: A Retrospective Analysis of Health Insurance Database

10.21203/rs.3.rs-36835/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Faisal Aziz ◽

Berthold Reichardt ◽

Caren Sourij ◽

Hans-Peter Dimai ◽

Daniela Reichart ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Heart Failure ◽

Health Insurance ◽

Lower Extremity ◽

Renal Disease ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Male Sex ◽

Long Term Mortality

Abstract Background: Previous data show a high incidence of major lower extremity amputations (LEA) in Austria. Moreover, recent data on the epidemiology of major LEA are sparse in the Country. This study estimated the incidence and mortality rates of major LEA and assessed risk factors of post major LEA mortality in individuals with diabetes.Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis of 507,180 individuals with diabetes enrolled in the Austrian Health Insurance between 2014 and 2017 was performed. Crude and age-standardized rates of major LEA (hip, femur, knee, lower leg) were estimated by extracting their procedure codes from the database. Short- (30-day, 90-day) and long-term (1-year, 5-year) all-cause cumulative mortality after major LEA was estimated from the date of amputation till the date of death. Poisson regression was performed to compare rates by characteristics and assess the annual trend. The Cox-regression was performed to identify significant risk factors of all-cause mortality after major LEA.Results: A total of 2,165 individuals with diabetes underwent major LEA between 2014 and 2017. The mean age was amputees was 73.0 ±11.3 years, 62.7% were males, and 87.3% had a peripheral vascular disease (PVD). The overall age-standardized rate was 6.44 per 100,000 population. The rate increased with age (p<0.001) and was higher (p<0.001) in males (9.38) than females (5.66). The rate was 5.71 in 2014, 6.86 in 2015, 6.71 in 2016, and 6.66 in 2017, with an insignificant annual change of 3% (p=0.825). The cumulative 30-day mortality was 13.5%, 90-day was 22.0%, 1-year was 34.4%, and 5-year was 66.7%. Age, male sex, above-knee amputation, Charlson index, and heart failure were significantly associated with both short- and long-term mortality. Cancer, dementia, heart failure, PVD, and renal disease were only associated with long-term mortality.Conclusions: The rate of major LEA remained stable between 2014 and 2017 in Austria. Short and long-term mortality rates were considerably high after major LEA. Old age, male sex, above-knee amputations, heart failure, and Charlson Index were significant predictors of both short- and long-term mortality, whereas, comorbidities such as cancer, dementia, PVD, and renal disease were significant predictors of long-term mortality only.

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Impact of Cerebrovascular Disease on the Surgical Treatment of Idiopathic Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus

Neurosurgery ◽

10.1227/01.neu.0000230259.49167.95 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 59 (3) ◽

pp. 545-552 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Diego Spagnoli ◽

Lucia Innocenti ◽

Lorenzo Bello ◽

Mauro Pluderi ◽

Susanna Bacigaluppi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cerebrovascular Disease ◽

Vascular Disease ◽

Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus ◽

Normal Pressure ◽

Short Term ◽

Long Term Follow Up ◽

Short And Long Term

Abstract OBJECTIVE: The influence of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) on the short- and long-term results of surgery was evaluated in a series of consecutive patients with idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH). METHODS: Patients with suspected iNPH admitted to our department between June 1996 and June 2003 were evaluated with four clinical and handicap scales. CVD and risk factors for vascular disease were rated. All patients underwent intracranial pressure monitoring via a spinal catheter. Sixty-six patients received a ventriculoperitoneal shunt with a programmable valve. Prospective assessments were programmed at 2 weeks and 3 months after surgery (short-term follow-up). Long-term follow-up evaluations were arranged in June 2004 with patients and/or relatives and health/home care assistants. RESULTS: At the short-term follow-up examination, a significant clinical improvement was globally present in 89% of the patients (P < 0.05). CVD, such as leucoaraiosis or previous strokes, were present in 71% of the patients. Patients both with and without CVD and/or risk factors for vascular disease presented a significant improvement (P < 0.05) after shunting; 85 and 100% of the patients with and without CVD, respectively. At the long-term follow-up examination (mean, 52 ± 24.8 mo), 24% of the patients were dead and 8% had experienced stroke. Globally, 60% of the patients were still improved (P < 0.05); 52 and 79% of the patients with and without CVD, respectively. CONCLUSION: A high success rate in treatment of iNPH is possible in patients with and without CVD. Despite poorer short- and long-term treatment outcome of iNPH patients with CVD, a long-lasting improvement in their quality of life favors surgery.

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