scholarly journals The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 501-523 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Tuckett ◽  
Milena Nikolic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Narrative Theory ◽  
Mental States ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Approach And Avoidance ◽  
Rules Of Thumb ◽  
The Future ◽  
Radical Uncertainty

We propose conviction narrative theory (CNT) to broaden decision-making theory in order to better understand and analyse how subjectively means–end rational actors cope in contexts in which the traditional assumptions in decision-making models fail to hold. Conviction narratives enable actors to draw on their beliefs, causal models, and rules of thumb to identify opportunities worth acting on, to simulate the future outcome of their actions, and to feel sufficiently convinced to act. The framework focuses on how narrative and emotion combine to allow actors to deliberate and to select actions that they think will produce the outcomes they desire. It specifies connections between particular emotions and deliberative thought, hypothesising that approach and avoidance emotions evoked during narrative simulation play a crucial role. Two mental states, Divided and Integrated, in which narratives can be formed or updated, are introduced and used to explain some familiar problems that traditional models cannot.

scholarly journals Cuing both positive and negative episodic foresight reduces delay discounting but does not affect risk-taking

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (8) ◽  
pp. 1998-2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Bulley ◽  
Beyon Miloyan ◽  
Gillian V Pepper ◽  
Matthew J Gullo ◽  
Julie D Henry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Delay Discounting ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Balloon Analogue Risk Task ◽  
Episodic Simulation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Monetary Choice Questionnaire

Humans frequently create mental models of the future, allowing outcomes to be inferred in advance of their occurrence. Recent evidence suggests that imagining positive future events reduces delay discounting (the devaluation of reward with time until its receipt), while imagining negative future events may increase it. Here, using a sample of 297 participants, we experimentally assess the effects of cued episodic simulation of positive and negative future scenarios on decision-making in the context of both delay discounting (monetary choice questionnaire) and risk-taking (balloon-analogue risk task). Participants discounted the future less when cued to imagine positive and negative future scenarios than they did when cued to engage in control neutral imagery. There were no effects of experimental condition on risk-taking. Thus, although these results replicate previous findings suggesting episodic future simulation can reduce delay discounting, they indicate that this effect is not dependent on the valence of the thoughts, and does not generalise to all other forms of “impulsive” decision-making. We discuss various interpretations of these results, and suggest avenues for further research on the role of prospection in decision-making.

scholarly journals Can philosophy contribute to a change of ethos? (The road from the law of the ethos toward European law

2003 ◽  
pp. 117-135
Author(s):  
Jovan Arandjelovic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
European Law ◽  
The Road ◽  
European Institutions ◽  
Democratic State ◽  
The Law ◽  
Sense Of Justice ◽  
New Criteria

The author examines the character of the changes taking place in contemporary Serbian society. He emphasizes at the same time that contemporary Serbian philosophy is facing these crucial questions as well, which without it cannot be even addressed, let alone solved. The key difference between modern West European and contemporary Serbian societies, seen from the perspective of philosophy, is demonstrated most clearly in the manner of constituting institutions and transforming the modern Serbian society. In the process of building modern institutions philosophy, not just in our country but throughout the Slavic East, has not had the role it played in Europe. Here lies the explanation why natural consciousness and an original ethos, though considerably modified, still remain unadapted and today represent a major obstacle to the establishment of the rule of European law. Without a change in the sense of justice and respect for the law it is impossible to accomplish the transformation of the society in which the law recognized by a democratic state could not be super ordinate to any reason. The crucial role of philosophy in this process is seen by the author not only in establishing modern European institutions and acceptance of the principle of European legislation, but above all in its influence on the transformation of the original ethos and establishment of new criteria on which the reflection, decision making and action of any individual would be based. .

scholarly journals Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Gregory Blane Johnson ◽  
Avri Bilovich ◽  
David Tuckett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Narrative Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
The Face ◽  
Individual Cognition ◽  
Radical Uncertainty ◽  
Econometric Analyses ◽  
Interview Studies ◽  
Adaptive Decision Making

Real-world decisions often take place under radical uncertainty—where outcomes cannot be enumerated and probabilities cannot be assigned. Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is a theory of choice under radical uncertainty. Whereas most theories of choice assume that people rely on (potentially biased) probabilistic judgments, such theories cannot account for adaptive decision-making when probabilities cannot be assigned. CNT proposes that people use narratives—structured causal hypotheses—rather than probabilities, as the currency of thought that unifies our sense-making and decision-making faculties. According to CNT, narratives arise from the interplay between individual cognition and the social environment, with reasoners adopting a narrative to explain the available evidence; using that narrative to imagine plausible futures; and affectively evaluating those imagined futures to make a choice. Evidence from many different areas of the cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences supports this basic model, including lab experiments, interview studies, and econometric analyses. We describe several varieties of narratives that govern decisions, documenting the psychological mechanisms governing their evaluation and their use in decision-making. We suggest two ways in which narratives and affect work together to support adaptive decision-making—evaluating the compatibility of imagined futures and goals and maintaining conviction to act in the face of ambivalent reasons and changing information. We conclude by discussing practical implications of CNT and its generativity for future research.

Ninety days convert recruits into hosts at Edwardian Group London

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-18
Keyword(s):  
Crucial Role ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Training And Development ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
First 90 Days ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – Describes the various approaches taken to training and development at Edwardian Group London, a group of hotels. Design/methodology/approach – Examines the reasons for the training, the form it takes and the results it has achieved. Findings – Emphasizes the importance the company attaches to training in the first 90 days of an employee's tenure, when recruits receive general induction training plus training specific to their area of operation. Practical implications – Outlines how the company spots and develops its managers of the future. Social implications – Highlights the crucial role of training in ensuring that hotel guests have the best possible stay. Originality/value – Provides a thorough examination of the various forms of training at Edwardian Group London.

scholarly journals Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process: Analyzing the Psyche of Expert Forecasters

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (12) ◽  
pp. 1893-1898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil A. Stuart ◽  
David M. Schultz ◽  
Gary Klein
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Time Constraints ◽  
Learning Gap ◽  
Weather Forecasters ◽  
The Future ◽  
Mental Modeling ◽  
And Training

The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2–3 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. This paper discusses the second session, featuring three presentations on the cognitive and psychological aspects of expert weather forecasters. The first presentation discussed the learning gap between students (goal seekers) and teachers (knowledge seekers)—a similar gap exists between forecasters and researchers. In order to most effectively train students or forecasters, teachers must be able to teach across this gap using some methods described within. The second presentation discussed the heuristics involved in weather forecasting and decision making under time constraints and uncertainty. The final presentation classified the spectrum of forecasters from intuitive scientists to the disengaged. How information technology can best be adapted so as not to inhibit intuitive scientists from their mental modeling of weather scenarios is described. Forecasters must continuously refine their skills through education and training, and be aware of the heuristic contributions to the forecast process, to maintain expertise and have the best chance of ensuring a dynamic role in the future forecast process.

Directors’ disqualification: insolvency practitioners and the decision-making process

Legal Studies ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Wheeler
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Future ◽  
Company Directors ◽  
The Subject

The Company Directors Disqualification Act 1986 (CDDA) instituted, inter alia, a mechanism whereby directors of failed companies can be disqualified from holding office in the future as the result of an application to the court by the Secretary of State, or in the case of compulsory liquidators, the official receive and a subsequent finding by the court that the director is unfit. The operation and effect of the CDDA has been the subject of speculation in the national press, other media and comment from insolvency practitioners since its inception. Most of this comment has focused on the role of the DTI and on its perceived failure to take steps to disqualify directors in sufficient numbers.

Derrida and Policy: Is Deconstruction Really a Social Science?

Derrida Today ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin McQuillan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Future Role ◽  
Political Policy ◽  
The Future ◽  
Political Decision Making

How might we begin to think about deconstruction in relation to the formulation of political policy? Once we begin to ask this question the whole idea of policy as such is put in question and conversely the limitations of philosophy as the basis for political decision making quickly become apparent. Through a consideration of this problem and by reference to a number of key tropes in Derrida's later writings, this essay begins the task of thinking about the deconstruction of policy and of asking what the future role of deconstructive thought might be.

scholarly journals Model-based MRI and psychophysics reveal crucial role of decision-making in visual development in childhood.

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Tessa Dekker ◽  
Marko Nardini ◽  
Peter Jones
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Visual Development ◽  
Model Based

scholarly journals Mass-tailorisation - a digital aid for the decision-making in the designer's design process

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Sik Kim
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Architectural Design ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Potential

<p>The advent of digital tools and technologies of modern times has provided architectural designers with the ability to create in complexities and volumes of an unprecedented scale. With the myriad of possibilities, the designer has become prone to the Paradox of Choice - the difficulty of making decisions in a field of mass-options. </p> <p>Mass-tailorisation aims to aid the decision-making process of the designer in a world of unprecedented possibilities, limited only by the practicalities of reality. This research develops a theoretical framework for mass-tailorisation systems that aid the designer in the decision-making process by strategically focusing on four stages of the decision-making process. </p> <p>The thesis investigates the theoretical framework of mass-tailorisation through several phases of case studies that critically assess the viability and the implications of the components that constitute the mass-tailorisation system. The need for mass-tailorisation, as well as the establishment of the system and the future potential of mass-tailorisation are addressed through these case studies. Thus, leading to an integrative theoretical framework on the validity of mass-tailorisation. </p> <p>The research also speculates on the possible role of the future designer as they navigate through the near-limitless possibilities of the architectural design process of modern times. Finally, the thesis concludes by discussing the specific importance of the Design-Fabrication-Assembly Digital Continuum and the pursuit for the Move 37 phenomenon in explaining how mass-tailorisation can improve the decision-making process of the designer during the design process.</p>

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