scholarly journals Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Gregory Blane Johnson ◽  
Avri Bilovich ◽  
David Tuckett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Narrative Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
The Face ◽  
Individual Cognition ◽  
Radical Uncertainty ◽  
Econometric Analyses ◽  
Interview Studies ◽  
Adaptive Decision Making

Real-world decisions often take place under radical uncertainty—where outcomes cannot be enumerated and probabilities cannot be assigned. Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is a theory of choice under radical uncertainty. Whereas most theories of choice assume that people rely on (potentially biased) probabilistic judgments, such theories cannot account for adaptive decision-making when probabilities cannot be assigned. CNT proposes that people use narratives—structured causal hypotheses—rather than probabilities, as the currency of thought that unifies our sense-making and decision-making faculties. According to CNT, narratives arise from the interplay between individual cognition and the social environment, with reasoners adopting a narrative to explain the available evidence; using that narrative to imagine plausible futures; and affectively evaluating those imagined futures to make a choice. Evidence from many different areas of the cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences supports this basic model, including lab experiments, interview studies, and econometric analyses. We describe several varieties of narratives that govern decisions, documenting the psychological mechanisms governing their evaluation and their use in decision-making. We suggest two ways in which narratives and affect work together to support adaptive decision-making—evaluating the compatibility of imagined futures and goals and maintaining conviction to act in the face of ambivalent reasons and changing information. We conclude by discussing practical implications of CNT and its generativity for future research.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risks in the Face of Rapidly Advancing Technologies

2019 ◽  
pp. 38-56
Author(s):  
Vicente González-Prida Díaz ◽  
Jesus Pedro Zamora Bonilla ◽  
Pablo Viveros Gunckel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Perception ◽  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Reduction Of Uncertainty

This chapter aims to consider the effects of the new concept Industry 4.0 on decision making, particularly on the reduction of uncertainty and the risk associated with any choice between alternatives. For this purpose, this chapter begins by dealing with the concepts of risk and uncertainty and their epistemological evolution. After observing certain trends and recent studies in this regard, the authors address a more philosophical perception of risk, mainly on aspects related to engineering and social perception. The concept of human reliability will also be reviewed and how it can be improved with the application of emerging technologies, considering some methodological proposals to improve the decision making. After that, some of the possible future research directions will be briefly discussed. Finally, the chapter concludes by highlighting key aspects of the chapter as a context for other chapters in the book.

scholarly journals The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 501-523 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Tuckett ◽  
Milena Nikolic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Narrative Theory ◽  
Mental States ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Approach And Avoidance ◽  
Rules Of Thumb ◽  
The Future ◽  
Radical Uncertainty

We propose conviction narrative theory (CNT) to broaden decision-making theory in order to better understand and analyse how subjectively means–end rational actors cope in contexts in which the traditional assumptions in decision-making models fail to hold. Conviction narratives enable actors to draw on their beliefs, causal models, and rules of thumb to identify opportunities worth acting on, to simulate the future outcome of their actions, and to feel sufficiently convinced to act. The framework focuses on how narrative and emotion combine to allow actors to deliberate and to select actions that they think will produce the outcomes they desire. It specifies connections between particular emotions and deliberative thought, hypothesising that approach and avoidance emotions evoked during narrative simulation play a crucial role. Two mental states, Divided and Integrated, in which narratives can be formed or updated, are introduced and used to explain some familiar problems that traditional models cannot.

Conviction Narrative Theory and Understanding Decision-Making in Economics and Finance

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Tuckett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Narrative Theory ◽  
Economic Outcomes ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Money Managers ◽  
Radical Uncertainty ◽  
Human Capacity ◽  
Market Instability

This chapter describes the radically uncertain context faced by money managers and how they cope by developing conviction narratives. It then generalizes these findings to introduce a wider theory of decision-making under radical uncertainty, termed Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT). CNT differs from standard approaches to decision-making in economics and behavioural psychology that are limited to theories of efficient and inefficient information processing in contexts where data is available to calculate future probabilities. In radical uncertainty, we cannot know which bits of information are useful. CNT explains the human capacity to cope despite this situation: actors organize their experience through narratives and use the emotions attaching to them to feel the conviction to act. In effect, CNT operationalizes Keynes’ (1936) formulation of animal spirits as a human solution to radical uncertainty; and it provides more plausible and empirically substantiated microfoundations on which to build understanding of aggregate economic outcomes, the development of monocultures, and financial market instability.

Post-Keynesian Economics, Rationality, and Conventions

2013 ◽  
pp. 61-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Boylan ◽  
Paschal O'Gorman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Theory ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Keynesian Economics ◽  
Rational Decision Making ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Face ◽  
Radical Uncertainty

The role of conventions has been an area of increasing interest to writers in the post-Keynesian tradition, particularly over the last thirty years. This has arisen from the reexamination of John Maynard Keynes’s notion of convention in the context of radical uncertainty along with the status of rationality in the face of uncertainty. This chapter discusses some of the principal tenets of Henri Poincaré’s analysis of conventions and relates them to the post-Keynesian methodological agenda, more specifically to provide a Poincaréan defense of the role of conventions in rational decision-making. It argues that this provides an innovative and more adequate philosophical defense of nonergodicity in economic theory, which has become a central axiom of post-Keynesian economics. The chapter first provides an overview of the post-Keynesian literature on uncertainty and conventions arising from Keynes’s employment of the concept. It then outlines the emergence of conventions and conventionalism in philosophy, examines Poincaré’s conventionalism and its relationship with rationality, and considers the implications of Poincaré’s conventionalism for post-Keynesian economics.

Defendant Decision-Making in Plea Bargains

2019 ◽  
pp. 24-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn D. Bushway
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Current State ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
Key Parameter

Defendants who plead guilty usually receive substantially shorter sentences than observably equivalent people who are convicted at trial. One explanation for this discrepancy is that defendants receive a discount for pleading guilty. The primary theoretical model used to explain the different sizes of the discount is referred to as “bargaining in the shadow of the trial.” This model is a rational, choice-based model of defendant decision-making. The model establishes the maximum value of the potential plea or, alternatively, the minimally acceptable discount. The key parameter driving the size of the discount in this model is the probability of conviction. Although more empirical tests are sorely needed, there is some evidence supporting the basic model. However, social scientists have recently shown that actual innocence seems to matter to defendants above and beyond the probability of conviction. This chapter discusses the shadow model as a model of defendant decision-making, evaluates the current state of the evidence, and discusses some of the possible extensions and room for future research.

scholarly journals Current understanding of decision-making in adolescents with cancer: A narrative systematic review

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 920-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Day ◽  
Louise Jones ◽  
Richard Langner ◽  
Myra Bluebond-Langner
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Mixed Methods Research ◽  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adolescent Cancer ◽  
The Face ◽  
Care And Treatment ◽  
Policy Guidance ◽  
High Degree

Background: Policy guidance and bioethical literature urge the involvement of adolescents in decisions about their healthcare. It is uncertain how roles and expectations of adolescents, parents and healthcare professionals influence decision-making and to what extent this is considered in guidance. Aims: To identify recent empirical research on decision-making regarding care and treatment in adolescent cancer: (1) to synthesise evidence to define the role of adolescents, parents and healthcare professionals in the decision-making process and (2) to identify gaps in research. Design: A narrative systematic review of qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods research. We adopted a textual approach to synthesis, using a theoretical framework of interactionism to interpret findings. Data Sources: The databases MEDLINE, PsycINFO, SCOPUS, EMBASE and CINHAL were searched from 2001 through May 2015 for publications on decision-making for adolescents (13–19 years) with cancer. Results: Twenty-eight articles were identified. Adolescents and parents initially find it difficult to participate in decision-making due to a lack of options in the face of protocol-driven care. Parent and adolescent preferences for information and response to loss of control vary between individuals and over time. No studies indicate parental or adolescent preference for a high degree of independence in decision-making. Conclusion: Striving to make parents and adolescents fully informed or urge them towards more independence than they prefer may add to distress and confusion. This may interfere with their ability to participate in their preferred way in decisions about care and treatment. Future research should include analysis of on-ground interactions among parents, adolescents and clinicians across the trajectory.

Penilaian Kinerja Dosen Dengan Menggunakan Metode AHP Studi Kasus di STIE Ahmad Dahlan Jakarta

Liquidity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-109
Author(s):  
Ellya Sestri
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Appraisal ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Faculty Performance ◽  
Business World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Rule Out

An increasingly rapid technological progress in the era of globalization in the business world, so do not rule out the possibility that a decision-making is something that is very vital in determining the decisions to be taken in the face of competitive business world. Decision making can be influenced by several aspects, this can affect the speed of decision making by the decision maker in which decisions must be quick and accurate. Lecturer Performance Assessment Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process is a decision support system that aims to assess faculty performance according to certain criteria. This system of faculty performance appraisal criteria to map a hierarchy, where each hierarchy will be performed pairwise comparison, the pairwise comparisons between criteria, so to get a comparison of the relative importance of criteria with each other. The results of this comparison is then analyzed to obtain the priority of each criterion. Once completed and performed an assessment of alternative options to be compared and calculated to obtain the best alternatives according to established criteria.

Yu.F. Samarin’s Model of the National State: Between Archaic and Modern

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 149-155
Author(s):  
Alexey B. Panchenko
Keyword(s):  
Rural Community ◽  
Fundamental Difference ◽  
The State ◽  
Basic Unit ◽  
National State ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
The Face ◽  
Identical Position ◽  
Ethnocultural Community ◽  
Communicative Space

Yu. F. Samarin’s works are traditionally viewed through the prism of his affiliation with Slavophilism. His view of the state is opposed to the idea of the complex empire based on unequal interaction of the central power with the elite of national districts. At the same time it was important for Samarin to see the nation not as an ethnocultural community, but as classless community of equal citizens, who were in identical position in the face of the emperor. Samarin’s attitude to religion and nationality had pragmatic character and were understood as means for the creation of the uniform communicative space inside the state. This position for the most part conformed with the framework of the national state basic model, however there still existed one fundamental difference. Samarin considered not an individual, but the rural community that owned the land, to be the basic unit of the national state. As the result the model of national state was viewed as the synthesis of modernistic (classlessness, pragmatism, equality) and archaic (communality) features.

Prophetic Leadership Model: Conceptualizing a Prophet’s Leadership Behaviour, Leader-Follower Mutuality and Altruism to Decision Making Quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Nik Maheran Nik Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Network ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Complex Function ◽  
Spiritual Leadership ◽  
Leadership Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Leadership Model ◽  
Leadership Behaviour ◽  
Current Leadership

This article advocates that research is lacking on the connection between leadership theory and social network theory. To date, little empirical research has been conducted on leadership and social networks. Thus, the proposition of this article goes beyond traditional leadership models to advocate for a fuller and more integrative focus that is multilevel, multi-component and interdisciplinary, while recognizing that leadership is a complex function of both the organisational leaders and the followers who perform tasks, all of which subsequently leads to decision making qualities. Indeed, the current leadership model focuses on leadership behaviour and the ability to gain followers mutuality, to achieve decision making quality involving the integration of leadership and social network theories. Given the apparent mutable palette of contemporary leadership theory, this emergent construct of the leadership paradigm can expand the poles of the leadership continuum and contribute to a richer and deeper understanding of the relationships and responsibilities of leaders and followers as they relate to decision making qualities. This new construct, which is termed prophetic leadership, explores the literature of the life experiences of the prophet in the ‘Abrahamic Faith’ religion. Drawing on a priori links between the personality trait and spiritual leadership that has recently garnered the interest of scholars, the present study asserts a normative leadership theory that links the personal quality of a leader, posture and principal (based on the Prophet’s leadership behaviour) to synergy and decision making quality. Altruism is proposed to enhance relationships between leadership behaviour and decision making quality. For future research, much work needs to be done specifically aiming to (a) achieve greater clarity of construct definitions, (b) address measurement issues, and (c) avoid construct redundancy.

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