Global Epidemiology of First 90 Days into COVID-19 Pandemic: Disease Incidence, Prevalence, Case Fatality Rate and Their Association with Population Density, Urbanisation and Elderly Population

As the COVID-19 pandemic marches exponentially, epidemiological data is of high importance to analyse the current situation and guide intervention strategies. This study analyses the epidemiological data of COVID-19 from 17 countries, representing 85 per cent of the total cases within first 90 days of lockdown in Wuhan, China. It follows a population-level observational study design and includes countries with 20,000 cases (or higher) as of 21 April 2020. We sourced the data for these 17 countries from worldometers. info, a digital platform being used by several media and reputed academic institutions worldwide. We calculated the prevalence, incidence, case fatality rate and trends in the epidemiology of COVID-19, and its correlation with population density, urbanisation and elderly population. The analysis represents 85 per cent ( N = 2,183,661) of all cases within the first 90 days of the pandemic. Across the analysed period, the burden of the pandemic primarily focused on high- and middle-income countries of Asia, Europe and North America. While the total number of cases and deaths are highest in USA, the prevalence, incidence and case fatality rates are higher in the European countries. The prevalence and incidence vary widely among countries included in the analysis, and the number of cases per million and the case fatality rate are correlated with the proportion of the elderly population and to a lesser extent with the proportion of the urban population.

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Global epidemiology of septic shock: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-032289 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. e032289

Author(s):

Frank Leonel Tianyi ◽

Joel Noutakdie Tochie ◽

Celestin Danwang ◽

Aime Mbonda ◽

Mazou N Temgoua ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Septic Shock ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Primary Study ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Global Epidemiology

BackgroundSeptic shock is a life-threatening infection frequently responsible for hospital admissions or may be acquired as nosocomial infection in hospitalized patients with resultant significant morbidity and mortality . There is a dearth of data on a résumé and meta-analysis on the global epidemiology of this potentially deadly condition. Therefore, we propose the first systematic review to synthesize existing data on the global incidence, prevalence and case fatality rate of septic shock worldwide.MethodsWe will include cross-sectional, case-control and cohort studies reporting on the incidence, and case fatality rate of septic shock. Electronic databases including PubMed, Embase, WHO Global Health Library and Web of Science will be searched for relevant records published between 1 January 2000 and 31 August 2019. Independents reviewers will perform study selection and data extraction, as well as assessment of methodological quality of included studies. Appropriate meta-analysis will then be used to pool studies judged to be clinically homogenous. Egger’s test and funnel plots will be used to detect publication bias. Findings will be reported and compared by human development level of countries.Ethics and disseminationBeing a review, ethical approval is not required as it was obtained in the primary study which will make up the review. This review is expected to provide relevant data to help in evaluating the burden of septic shock in the general population. The overall findings of this research will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42019129783.

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Global epidemiology of acute generalised peritonitis: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-034326 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. e034326

Author(s):

Joel Noutakdie Tochie ◽

Ndip Valirie Agbor ◽

Tianyi Tianyi Frank Leonel ◽

Aime Mbonda ◽

Desmond Aji Abang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Data Extraction ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Published Data ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Global Epidemiology ◽

Ethical Approval ◽

Registration Number

IntroductionGlobally, acute generalised peritonitis (AGP) is a common medical and surgical emergency which is a major contributor to non-trauma deaths despite improvements in diagnosis and surgical and intensive care management. In order to determine the global burden of AGP, geared at tailoring key interventions to curb its morbidity and mortality, we proposed this first ever systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the contemporary prevalence, and to determine the most frequent AGP and the case fatality rate of AGP, at the global scene.Methods and analysisWe intend to searchAfricanJournalsOnline, Americana em Ciências da Saúde, Citation index, EMBASE, Global Index Medicus, Literatura Latino Africa Index Medicus, Medline and Scientific Electronic Library Online databases from 1 January 2009 to 31 July 2019 to identify studies that reported the prevalence, types of AGP, and case fatality rate of AGP in the global population without any language restrictions. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment will be conducted independently at each level by a pair of independent investigators. Random-effects meta-analysis will be used to pool studies judged to be clinically homogeneous. The presence of heterogeneity will be evaluated using the χ² test on Cochrane’s Q statistic and quantified with the I² statistics. Publication bias will be evaluated statistically and visually using the Egger’s test and funnel plots, respectively. Findings will be reported and compared by countries, WHO regions and globally.Ethics and disseminationSince this study will be based on published data, it does will not require an ethical approval. The findings will be published in a scientific peer-reviewed journal. They will also be presented at scientific conferences and to relevant public health actors.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42019143331.

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Environmental and climatic impact on the infection and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in Peru

Journal of Basic and Clinical Physiology and Pharmacology ◽

10.1515/jbcpp-2021-0007 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 0 (0) ◽

Author(s):

Victor J. Samillan ◽

Diana Flores-León ◽

Eduardo Rojas ◽

Brian R. Zutta

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Population Density ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Bivariate Correlation

Abstract Objectives The role of the environment and climate in the transmission and case fatality rates of SARS-CoV-2 is still being investigated a year into the pandemic. Elevation and air quality are believed to be significant factors in the development of the pandemic, but the influence of additional environmental factors remains unclear. Methods We explored the relationship between the cumulative number of infections and mortality cases with climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, water vapor pressure, wind), environmental data (elevation, normalized difference vegetation index or NDVI, particulate matter at 2.5 μm or PM2.5 and NO2 concentration), and population density in Peru. We use confirmed cases of infection from 1,287 districts and mortality in 479 districts, we used Spearman’s correlations to assess the bivariate correlation between environmental and climatic factors with cumulative infection cases, cumulative mortality and case-fatality rate. We explored district cases within the ecozones of coast, sierra, high montane forest and lowland rainforest. Results Multiple linear regression models indicate elevation, mean solar radiation, air quality, population density and green vegetation cover, as a socioeconomic proxy, are influential factors in the distribution of infection and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in Peru. Case-fatality rate was weakly associated with elevation. Conclusions Our results also strongly suggest that exposure to poor air quality is a significant factor in the mortality of individuals below the age of 30. We conclude that environmental and climatic factors do play a significant role in the transmission and case fatality rates in Peru, however further study is required to see if these relationships are maintained over time.

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Infection pattern, case fatality rate and spread of Lassa virus in Nigeria

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-021-05837-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Clement Ameh Yaro ◽

Ezekiel Kogi ◽

Kenneth Nnamdi Opara ◽

Gaber El-Saber Batiha ◽

Roua S. Baty ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Lassa Fever ◽

Lassa Virus ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Wet Season ◽

Infection Pattern

Abstract Background Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic infectious disease of public concern in Nigeria. The infection dynamics of the disease is not well elucidated in Nigeria. This study was carried out to describe the pattern of infection, case fatality rate and spread of lassa virus (LASV) from 2017 to 2020. Methods Weekly epidemiological data on LF from December, 2016 to September, 2020 were obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The number of confirmed cases and deaths were computed according to months and states. Descriptive statistics was performed and case fatality rate was calculated. Distribution and spread maps of LF over the four years period was performed on ArcMap 10.7. Results A total of 2787 confirmed cases and 516 deaths were reported in Nigeria from December, 2016 to September, 2020. Increase in number of cases and deaths were observed with 298, 528, 796 and 1165 confirmed cases and 79, 125, 158 and 158 deaths in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. Over 60% of the cases were reported in two states, Edo and Ondo states. The LF cases spread from 19 states in 2017 to 32 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2020. Ondo state (25.39%) had the highest of deaths rate from LF over the four years. Case fatality rate (CFR) of LF was highest in 2017 (26.5%) with CFR of 23.7, 19.6 and 13.4% in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. The peak of infection was in the month of February for the four years. Infections increases at the onset of dry season in November and decline till April when the wet season sets-in. Conclusion There is an annual increase in the number of LASV infection across the states in Nigeria. There is need to heighten control strategies through the use of integrated approach, ranging from vector control, health education and early diagnosis.

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Environmental and climatic impact on the infection and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in Peru

10.1101/2020.09.16.20196170 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Victor J. Samillan ◽

Diana Flores-Leon ◽

Eduardo Rojas ◽

Brian R. Zutta

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Population Density ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Water Vapor Pressure ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Fatality Rate

The role of the environment and climate in the transmission and case-fatality rates of SARS-CoV-2 is still being investigated. Elevation and air quality are believed to be significant factors in the current development of the pandemic, but the influence of additional environmental factors remain unclear. In this study, we explored the relationship between the cumulative number of infections and mortality cases with climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, water vapor pressure, wind), environmental data (elevation, NDVI, PM2.5 and NO2 concentration), and population density in Peru. Using the data from confirmed cases of infection from 1287 districts and confirmed cases of mortality in 479 districts, we used Spearman's correlations to assess the correlation between environmental and climatic factors with cumulative infection cases, cumulative mortality and case-fatality rate. We also explored district cases by the ecozones of coast, sierra, high montane forest and lowland rainforest. Multiple linear regression models indicate elevation, mean solar radiation, air quality, population density and green cover are influential factors in the distribution of infection and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in Peru. The case-fatality rate was weakly associated with elevation. Our results also strongly suggest that exposure to poor air quality is a significant factor in the mortality of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 below the age of 30. We conclude that environmental and climatic factors do play a significant role in the transmission and case-fatality rates in Peru, however further study is required to see if these relationships are maintained over time.

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Strong Correlation between the Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 and the rs6598045 Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) of the Interferon-Induced Transmembrane Protein 3 (IFITM3) Gene at the Population-Level

Genes ◽

10.3390/genes12010042 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 42

Author(s):

Yong-Chan Kim ◽

Byung-Hoon Jeong

Keyword(s):

Single Nucleotide Polymorphism ◽

Ethnic Group ◽

Strong Correlation ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Transmembrane Protein ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Population Level ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Nucleotide Polymorphism ◽

Single Nucleotide

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a fatal pandemic disease that is caused by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of 13 December, 2020, over 70,000,000 cases and 1,500,000 deaths have been reported over a period of several months; however, the mechanism underlying the pathogenesis of COVID-19 has not been elucidated. To identify the novel risk genetic biomarker for COVID-19, we evaluated the correlation between the case fatality rate of COVID-19 and the genetic polymorphisms of several potential COVID-19-related genes, including interferon-induced transmembrane protein 3 (IFITM3), the angiotensin I converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) gene, transmembrane protease, serine 2 (TMPRSS2), interleukin 6 (IL6), leucine zipper transcription factor-like protein 1 (LZTFL1), and the ABO genes, in various ethnic groups. We obtained the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths from the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 dashboard and calculated the case fatality rate of each ethnic group. In addition, we obtained the allele distribution of the polymorphisms of the IFITM3, ACE2, TMPRSS2, IL6, LZTFL1, and ABO genes from the 1000 Genomes Project and performed Log-linear regression analysis using SAS version 9.4. We found different COVID-19 case fatality rates in each ethnic group. Notably, we identified a strong correlation between the case fatality rate of COVID-19 and the allele frequency of the rs6598045 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the IFITM3 gene. To the best of our knowledge, this report is the first to describe a strong correlation between the COVID-19 case fatality rate and the rs6598045 SNP of the IFITM3 gene at the population-level.

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Explaining among-country variation in COVID-19 case fatality rate

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-75848-2 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Gabriele Sorci ◽

Bruno Faivre ◽

Serge Morand

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Respiratory Infections ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Population Level ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Negatively Associated ◽

Chronic Respiratory Diseases ◽

Factors Associated ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Political Variables

Abstract While the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 has spread worldwide, there is much concern over the mortality rate that the infection induces. Available data suggest that COVID-19 case fatality rate had varied temporally (as the epidemic has progressed) and spatially (among countries). Here, we attempted to identify key factors possibly explaining the variability in case fatality rate across countries. We used data on the temporal trajectory of case fatality rate provided by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, and country-specific data on different metrics describing the incidence of known comorbidity factors associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality at the individual level. We also compiled data on demography, economy and political regimes for each country. We found that temporal trajectories of case fatality rate greatly vary among countries. We found several factors associated with temporal changes in case fatality rate both among variables describing comorbidity risk and demographic, economic and political variables. In particular, countries with the highest values of DALYs lost to cardiovascular, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases had the highest values of COVID-19 CFR. CFR was also positively associated with the death rate due to smoking in people over 70 years. Interestingly, CFR was negatively associated with share of death due to lower respiratory infections. Among the demographic, economic and political variables, CFR was positively associated with share of the population over 70, GDP per capita, and level of democracy, while it was negatively associated with number of hospital beds ×1000. Overall, these results emphasize the role of comorbidity and socio-economic factors as possible drivers of COVID-19 case fatality rate at the population level.

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Burden and Trend of Measles in Nigeria: Five-year Review Case-base Surveillance Data

Online Journal of Public Health Informatics ◽

10.5210/ojphi.v10i1.8756 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ibrahim S. Baffa ◽

Yahaya Mohammed ◽

Rabi Usman ◽

Aisha Abubakar ◽

Patrick Nguku

Keyword(s):

Disease Surveillance ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Laboratory Diagnosis ◽

Northern Region ◽

World Health ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Health Organization

ObjectiveWe reviewed measles specific Integretaged Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) data from Nigeria over a five-year period to highlights its burden and trends, and make recommendations for improvements.IntroductionMeasles is a vaccine preventable, highly transmissible viral infection that affects mostly under-five year children. The disease is caused by a Morbillivirus; member of the Paramyxovirus family.MethodsWe conducted a secondary data analysis of measles specific IDSR records of all States in Nigeria from January 2012 to September 2016. The record had reported measles cases with laboratory outcomes from all the States. IDSR weekly epidemiological data were obtained from Surveillance Unit, Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC).ResultsA total of 131,732 cases were recorded within the period. Highest number of cases 57,892(43.95%) were recorded in 2013 while the least number of cases 11,061(8.4%) were recorded in 2012. A total of 817 deaths were recorded, given a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.62%. The CFR showed a decreasing trend over the years with the highest CFR (1.43%) recorded in 2012 and the least CFR (0.44%) recorded in 2016. Only 8,916 (6.7%) cases were confirmed by laboratory investigation. The Northwest region recorded the highest attack rate (AR) of 149.7 cases per 100,000 population, followed by the Northeast region with 140.2 cases per 100,000 population, while the South-south region recorded the least AR of 15.8 cases per 100,000 population. Case Fatality Rate per region followed similar pattern, with the Northcentral region having the highest CFR of 4.38%. The trend of measles cases followed the same pattern. Cases peaked at March, then gradually reduced to lowest level at June.ConclusionsMeasles infection remains a burden especially in the northern region of Nigeria. Though measles fatalities were on decline over the years, laboratory diagnosis of cases has been suboptimal. We recommended improvement on routine immunization and measles case management, and strengthening of regional laboratories capacity for measles diagnosis.References1. WHO | Measles. WHO [Internet]. World Health Organization; 2017 [cited 2017 Apr 10]; Available from: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs286/en/2. Akande TM. A review of measles vaccine failure in developing countries. Niger. Med. Pract. SAME Ventures; 2007;52:112–6.3. Ibrahim BS, Gana GJ, Mohammed Y, Bajoga UA, Olufemi AA, Umar AS, et al. Outbreak of measles in Sokoto State North-Western Nigeria, three months after a supplementary immunization campaign: An investigation report 2016. Australas. Med. J. AUSTRALASIAN MEDICAL JOURNAL PTY LTD HILLARYS, GPO BOX 367, PERTH, WA 6923, AUSTRALIA; 2016;9:324–35.

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Estimation of case-fatality rate in COVID-19 patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus in the New York State

10.1101/2020.08.20.20178962 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yang Ge ◽

Shengzhi Sun ◽

Ye Shen

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

New York ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Elderly Population ◽

New York State ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The Elderly ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

York State

We estimated the case-fatality rate (CFR) and ratios (RR) in adult COVID-19 cases with hypertension and diabetes mellitus in the New York State. We found that the elderly population had a higher CFR, but the elevated CFR ratios associated with comorbidities are more pronounced for the younger population.

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Identification of spatial variations in COVID-19 epidemiological data using K-Means clustering algorithm: a global perspective

10.1101/2020.06.03.20121194 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Viswa Chandu

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Health Expenditure ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Background Characteristics ◽

Public Health Expenditure ◽

Cluster 2 ◽

Country Specific

Background: Discerning spatial variations of COVID-19 through quantitative analysis operating on the geographically designated datasets relating to socio-demographics and epidemiological data facilitate strategy planning in curtailing the transmission of the disease and focus on articulation of necessary interventions in an informed manner. Methods: K-means clustering was employed on the available country-specific COVID-19 epidemiological data and the influential background characteristics. Country-specific case fatality rates and the average number of people tested positive for COVID-19 per every 10,000 population in each country were derived from the WHO COVID-19 situation report 107, and were used for clustering along with the background characteristics of proportion of countrys population aged >65 years and percentage GDP spent as public health expenditure. Results: The algorithm grouped the 89 countries into cluster 1 and Cluster 2 of sizes 54 and 35, respectively. It is apparent that Americas, European countries, and Australia formed a major part of cluster 2 with high COVID-19 case fatality rate, higher proportion of countrys population tested COVID-19 positive, higher percentage of GDP spent as public health expenditure, and greater percentage of population being more than 65 years of age. Conclusion: In spite of the positive correlation between high public health expenditure (%GDP) and COVID-19 incidence, case fatality rate, the immediate task ahead of most of the low and middle income countries is to strengthen their public health systems realizing that the correlation found in this study could be spurious in light of the underreported number of cases and poor death registration.

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