scholarly journals Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven against Equity and Currency in Asia?

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aftab ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Izlin Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

In recent years, uncertainty in financial markets has stimulated the need to explore alternative avenues for safeguarding wealth and managing risk. In this strand of research, gold has been particularly important due to its potential to mitigate risk and preserve wealth. This study investigates gold behaviour against equities and currencies in three regions across Asia. We follow Engle’s (2002) dynamic conditional correlation-multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model to test the gold link with equity and currency markets. We use a weekly series of exchange rate (national currency/the US dollar), equity and gold prices in national currency over the weekly period, 1995–2013. The sample consists of 12 countries covering East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia. Findings suggest that gold is just a diversifier against stocks in the Asian economies except in Korea, Singapore and Thailand. However, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven against Asian currencies—except China and Hong Kong—thus still preserving its monetary role.

scholarly journals The Conflicting Developments of RMB Internationalization: Contagion Effect and Dynamic Conditional Correlation

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Xiangqing Lu ◽  
Roengchai Tansuchat
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Contagion Effect ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Rmb Internationalization

As the world’s largest exporter and second-largest importer, China has made exchange rate stability a top priority for its economic growth. With development over decades, however, China now holds excess dollar reserves that have suffered a huge paper loss because of quantitative easing in the United States. In this reality, China has been provoked into speeding RMB internationalization as a strategy to reduce the cost and get rid of the excessive dependence on the US dollar. Thus, this study attempts to investigate the volatility contagion effect and dynamic conditional correlation among four assets, namely China’s onshore exchange rate (CNY), China’s offshore exchange rate (CNH), China’s foreign exchange reserves (FER), and RMB internationalization level (RGI). Considering the huge changes before and after China’s “8.11” exchange rate reform in 2015, we separate the period of study into two sub-periods. The Diagonal BEKK-GARCH model is employed for this analysis. The results exhibit large GARCH effects and relatively low ARCH effects among all periods and evidence that, before August 2015, there was a weak contagion effect among them. However, after September 2015, the model validates a strengthened volatility contagion within CNY and CNH, CNY and RGI, and CNH and RGI. However, the contagion effect is weakened between FER and CNY, FER and CNH, and FER and RGI.

Problem of Yuan Undervaluation in US-China Trade Relations

2012 ◽  
pp. 20-28
Author(s):  
A. Polivach
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Scientific Validity ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
World Economic Crisis

Before the world economic crisis the Chinese government restricted the sphere of the Yuan’s circulation exceptionally by the domestic market. Basically, until that time the Yuan was not freely convertible while the Chinese foreign trade transactions were operated with the help of the US dollar. This is a sufficient reason to state that the issue of Yuan’s underestimated exchange rate has no fundamental relevance. However, the crisis forced China to substantially extend the utilization of its national currency in the international settlements. This is especially true in case of mutual settlements with the neighbor countries. So far, presumably, the issue of Yuan’s underestimated exchange rate will, at last, receive a scientific validity only when the Chinese national currency will become fully convertible and the scales of its utilization will become comparable with those of the traditional hard currencies.

Co-movements between the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen: the Brexit impact

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 467-481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susana Alvarez-Diez ◽  
J. Samuel Baixauli-Soler ◽  
Maria Belda-Ruiz
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Trading ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Japanese Yen

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the Brexit effect – pre-Brexit and post-Brexit referendum periods – on the co-movements between the British pound (GBP), the euro (EUR) and the yen (JPY) against the US dollar (USD).Design/methodology/approachTo ascertain the asymmetric behavior of dynamic correlations, the authors use the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (A-DCC) model and the diagonal BEKK model assuming Gaussian and Student’stdistribution. Several dummy variables have been included in order to identify the main periods related to Brexit.FindingsFindings show a negative impact of the pre-Brexit referendum period on the correlation between GBP and EUR, while there is no significant effect on GBP–JPY and EUR–JPY pairs. The loss of correlation in the GBP–EUR pairing has not recovered during the post-Brexit referendum period, which could be attributed to the uncertainty about the final impact of Brexit on British and Eurozone economies.Practical implicationsThe loss of correlation in the GBP–EUR pair has important implications for individual investors, portfolio managers and traders with respect to hedging activities, international trading and investment strategies.Originality/valueThe results are the first to address how Brexit has impacted on the co-movements between exchange rates using different multivariate models that allow for correlations to change over time.

scholarly journals Dynamic Conditional Correlation between Electricity, Energy (Commodity) and Financial Markets during the Financial Crisis in Greece

2017 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 990-1033
Author(s):  
Panagiotis G. Papaioannou ◽  
George P. Papaioannou ◽  
Kostas Sietos ◽  
Akylas Stratigakos ◽  
Christos Dikaiakos
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on the standard & poor 500 index sectors: a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maha Elhini ◽  
Rasha Hammam
Keyword(s):  
Significant Relation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Return ◽  
Technology Sector ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
Daily Returns

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVIDg), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on S&P500 index daily returns and its 11 constituent sectors’ indices for the time period between January 22, 2020, until June 30, 2020. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model to gauge the impacts over the whole period of study, as well as over two sub-periods; first, January 22, 2020, until March 30, 2020, reflecting uncertainty in the US markets and second, from April 1, 2020, until June 30, 2020, reflecting the lockdown. Findings Results of the MGARCH model reveal a negative and significant relation between COVIDg and S&P500 index daily returns over the first sub-period and the whole study period in the following sectors, namely, communications, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health, technology and materials. Yet, COVIDg showed a positive and significant relation with S&P500 index daily returns during the second time period in the following sectors, namely, communication, consumer discretionary, financial, industrial, information technology (IT) and utilities. Besides, USDX showed a negative significant effect on S&P500 index daily returns and on the daily return on each of its 11 constituent sectors over the second sub-period and the whole period. Further, FFR showed a significant effect only in the second sub-period, specifically, a negative effect on the daily return of the financial sector and a positive effect on the daily return of the technology sector index. Nevertheless, FFR had a positive significant effect on the daily return of the utilities sector index for the whole period under study. Research limitations/implications The impact of the crisis on the S&P500 index can be assessed only with some limitations owing to available global data and the limited time frame of the lock-down. Practical implications The study proposes supporting a smooth, functioning and resilient financial system; increasing fiscal measures by the US Government to increase liquidity on constraints; measures by The Federal Reserve to alleviate US dollar funding shortages; support market integrity; ensure continuous transparency and sharing of information; support the health sector, as well as consumer-based sectors that faced demand shocks and facilitate investments in the technology sector. Originality/value The originality of this paper lies in the examination of the impact of the novel COVID-19 pandemic on each of the 11 sectors constituting the S&P500 index separately, reflecting how the main economic sectors formulating the US economy reacted to the shock during the peak time of the pandemic to observe a full picture of the economic consequences amid the pandemic.

scholarly journals The Budget rule: reducing oil dependence

2020 ◽  
Vol 164 ◽  
pp. 11041
Author(s):  
Andrey Brodunov ◽  
Natalia Bushueva ◽  
Alexander Averin ◽  
Ekaterina Berezina
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Market ◽  
Close Correlation ◽  
National Currency ◽  
The Us ◽  
Budget Policy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Us Dollar

The article explores a way to reduce the dependence of the national currency on oil prices. A retrospective analysis of the data showed a close correlation between the ruble, the US dollar and the price of oil in the international market. Since 2004, a budget rule has been in effect in Russia, imposing a long-term restriction on budget policy through quantitative restrictions on budget indicators. The study analyzes the limitations of the budget rule in the Russian Federation in various periods and its results. The authors conducted a comparative analysis of foreign experience in reducing dependence on petrodollars on the basis of five reserve funds. The study demonstrates that the budget rule could be one of the possible measures to reduce the dependence of the national currency on oil prices.

Is Bitcoin a safe haven? Application of FinTech to safeguard Australian stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Kamran ◽  
Pakeezah Butt ◽  
Assim Abdel-Razzaq ◽  
Hadrian Geri Djajadikerta
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
One Year

Purpose This study aims to address the timely question of whether Bitcoin exhibited a safe haven property against the major Australian stock indices during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia and whether such property is similar or different in one year time from the first wave of the COVID-19. Design/methodology/approach The authors used the bivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model, on the five-day returns of Bitcoin and Australian stock indices for the sample period between 23 April, 2011 and 19 April, 2021. Findings The results show that Bitcoin offered weak safe haven and hedging benefits when combined in a portfolio with S&P/ASX 200 Financials index, S&P/ASX 200 Banks index or S&P/ASX 300 Banks index. In regard to the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index, the authors found Bitcoin a risky candidate with inconsistent safe haven and hedging benefits. Against S&P/ASX 50 index, S&P/ASX 200 index and S&P/ASX 300 index, Bitcoin was nothing more than a diversifier. The outset of the second COVID-19 wave, which was comparatively more severe than the first, is also reflected in the results with considerably higher correlations. Originality/value There is a lack of in-depth empirical evidence on the safe haven capabilities of Bitcoins for various Australian stock indices during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study bridges this void in research.

scholarly journals PAIN AT THE PUMP: IS THERE AN ASYMMETRIC INFLUENCE OF OIL VOLATILITY ON GASOLINE VOLATILITY IN FRANCE?

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
SOFIANE ABOURA
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
Taxation Policy ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship

<p class="ESRBODY">We investigate, for the first time, the relationship between gasoline volatility and crude oil volatility. We aim to examine if the so-called asymmetric relationship between gasoline and crude oil prices holds for volatility. The approach employed is based on the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model as applied to the US WTI oil volatility and the French Super Carburant 95 gasoline volatility from 1990 to 2014.</p>The results reveal that gasoline volatility tends to be overreactive to changes in crude oil volatility. Moreover, it appears that the government taxation policy might amplify the gasoline volatility

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