scholarly journals The Budget rule: reducing oil dependence

2020 ◽  
Vol 164 ◽  
pp. 11041
Author(s):  
Andrey Brodunov ◽  
Natalia Bushueva ◽  
Alexander Averin ◽  
Ekaterina Berezina
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Market ◽  
Close Correlation ◽  
National Currency ◽  
The Us ◽  
Budget Policy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Us Dollar

The article explores a way to reduce the dependence of the national currency on oil prices. A retrospective analysis of the data showed a close correlation between the ruble, the US dollar and the price of oil in the international market. Since 2004, a budget rule has been in effect in Russia, imposing a long-term restriction on budget policy through quantitative restrictions on budget indicators. The study analyzes the limitations of the budget rule in the Russian Federation in various periods and its results. The authors conducted a comparative analysis of foreign experience in reducing dependence on petrodollars on the basis of five reserve funds. The study demonstrates that the budget rule could be one of the possible measures to reduce the dependence of the national currency on oil prices.

Problem of Yuan Undervaluation in US-China Trade Relations

2012 ◽  
pp. 20-28
Author(s):  
A. Polivach
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Scientific Validity ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
World Economic Crisis

Before the world economic crisis the Chinese government restricted the sphere of the Yuan’s circulation exceptionally by the domestic market. Basically, until that time the Yuan was not freely convertible while the Chinese foreign trade transactions were operated with the help of the US dollar. This is a sufficient reason to state that the issue of Yuan’s underestimated exchange rate has no fundamental relevance. However, the crisis forced China to substantially extend the utilization of its national currency in the international settlements. This is especially true in case of mutual settlements with the neighbor countries. So far, presumably, the issue of Yuan’s underestimated exchange rate will, at last, receive a scientific validity only when the Chinese national currency will become fully convertible and the scales of its utilization will become comparable with those of the traditional hard currencies.

scholarly journals Cointegration of Stock Market and Exchange Rate in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pribawa E Pantas ◽  
Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono ◽  
Misbahul Munir ◽  
Rofiul Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study aims to determine the long-term relationship between stock market and exchange rate in Indonesia. The research method used is Johansen cointegration test. The results of this study found no cointegration between the variables tested. Thus the exchange rate, JII, and IHSG have no relationship in the long term. The fluctuation of the rupiah exchange rate in recent years did not generally affect the performance of stock indices especially after the global financial crisis of 2008. This shows the capital market in Indonesia has a good performance so that it is not so sensitive to the sentiment of the decline in the rupiah against the US dollar. This finding is in line with the findings of Syahrer (2010) which states the exchange rate has no effect on the stock market.

The Effect of Covid-19, Rupiah Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index during the Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 313-336
Author(s):  
Achmad Agus Priyono ◽  
Ari Kartiko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Purpose of this study is to clarify the effect of the number of daily cases reported to have contracted the Covid-19 virus, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar and inflation on the movement of the Indonesian Sharia stock index (ISSI) during the Pandemic Covid 19 in the short term and long term. Data analysis methods that used is analysis Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) using Eviews software 10. The data collected is daily time series data starting from March 2, 2020 to May 31, 2021 so that the number of samples collected obtained as many as 283 samples . The results of the study stated that the addition of the daily number of reported cases of contracting the Covid-19 virus has a negative impact on The Indonesian Sharia Stock Market Index (ISSI) during the Covid-19 pandemic, so that encourage the weakening of the Stock Index both in the long and long term short. Likewise, the weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar will caused the fall of the sharia index during the Covid 19 pandemic, both in the long term and long and short term. However, the study found no effect inflation on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) during the Covid19 pandemic, good long term and short term

scholarly journals Perbandingan Metode ANN-PSO dan ANN-GA untuk Peningkatan Akurasi Prediksi Harga Emas Antam

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-106
Author(s):  
Nadia Annisa Maori ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Algorithm Optimization ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network

Antam's gold price is more expensive than the price of gold used by more investors for long-term use. Sometimes the price of antam gold cannot be predicted at any time. Antam's rising gold prices were moved by many factors, sent in exchange rates of US dollars (USD). If the exchange rate of the US dollar (USD) decreases, the price of gold will rise and vice versa, if the value of the US dollar (USD) strengthens, the price of gold will increase. This condition makes it difficult for investors to predict the price of gold in the future. Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is known as one of the good methods in predicting. In this study an evaluation of the results of the price of gold using ANN with the help of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) optimization. PSO has many similarities with GA, which is an algorithm adopted from the process of supporting humans. The results of the study prove that PSO Optimization is able to provide an increase in optimizing the weights on the Neural Network by producing the best RMSE value, which is equal to 0.026, while GA optimization only produces a value of 0.09.

FACTORS OF CRISIS AND RESTRUCTURING WORLD FINANCIAL SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 171-178
Author(s):  
V. V. ZAGARSKIKH ◽  
◽  
E. V. KARANINA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New World ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The Us ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Hybrid War ◽  
World Economic Order

The article analyzes long-term economic patterns, examines the reasons for international integration and the creation of a new world economic order. Some reasons for the destabilization of the financial system of the planet are revealed, including the depreciation of the US dollar and the redistribution of property rights through the financial market. The analysis of the dollar financial system in the modern conditions of hybrid war is given, possible types of a new world economic structure, solutions for Russia and the world as a whole to create an economic security zone are considered. The conclusion is made about the need for de-dollarization of mutual trade and joint investments.

scholarly journals Test for asymmetry on the ex-pump price of premium gasoline in Ghana, Kenya, and Colombia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-89
Author(s):  
Senanu Kwasi Klutse ◽  
Gábor Dávid Kiss
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Once again, the World has been faced with an oil price shock as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. This has resurrected an old debate of whether retail fuel prices adjust significantly to either increases or decreases in international crude oil prices. With many countries moving towards the deregulation of their petroleum sub-sector, the impact of the US dollar exchange rate on retail fuel prices cannot be overlooked. This study investigates the rate at which positive and negative changes in international Brent crude oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate affected the increases or decreases in the ex-pump price of premium gasoline between February 2012 and December 2019. Using a non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag model, the exchange rate was found to play a significant role in fluctuations in the retail price of premium gasoline in Ghana and Colombia in the long run, howev-er, the rate of adjustment between the negative and positive changes was not significant, dispelling the perception of price asymmetry. There was no significant relationship between the ex-pump price of premium gasoline and the international Brent crude oil price in Ghana and Kenya in the long run. This study recommends that the aforementioned countries prioritise the creation of ex-change rate buffers to prevent exchange rate shocks that may affect retail fuel prices.

scholarly journals Development trends of the fuel and energy resources market in agricultural sector of Ukraine

Ekonomika APK ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 313 (11) ◽  
pp. 80-89
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Zakharchuk ◽  
Tetiana Matsybora
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Diesel Fuel ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Rate Research

The purpose of the article is to establish the main trends in the development of the market of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector, to build a model for calculating the retail price of diesel fuel in Ukraine, depending on world oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate. Research methods. In the process of research, the dialectical method of scientific cognition, analysis and synthesis, system generalization (establishment of the basic tendencies of development of the market of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector, formation of conclusions) is used; analytical alignment of the trend (linear) (identifying the trend in the dynamics of demand for gasoline and diesel fuel) were used; world oil prices and retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in Ukraine); correlation and regression analysis (quantitative measurement of the degree of influence on the price of diesel fuel of both individual factors and their combination; construction of a regression model for calculating the retail price of diesel fuel in Ukraine depending on world oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate). Research results. The main trends in the development of the market of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector of Ukraine have been established. The degree of influence of both individual factors and their combination on the price of diesel fuel has been determined. A regression model is built for calculating the retail price of diesel fuel in Ukraine depending on world oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate. A short-term forecast of the price of diesel fuel in Ukraine has been carried out. Scientific novelty. Based on the establishment of the main trends in the development of the market of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector, an econometric model based on multiple linear regression has been built, which allows determining the relationship between the retail price of diesel fuel in Ukraine and the world oil price, as well as the dollar exchange rate. Practical significance. Conclusions, suggestions and practical recommendations can be used in the development of investment projects in agriculture and the formation of state programs for the agricultural sector development. Tabl.: 4, Figs.: 4. Refs.: 14.

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