Growth in Foreign Trade in Liberalized India: The Relevance of FDI

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092093698
Author(s):  
Shib Sankar Jana ◽  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Krishna Dayal Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Positive Shock

Driven by the need of an economic model that can explain the foreign direct investment (FDI)–export relationship, especially in post-liberalized context, we make a special inquiry on whether FDI has a significant export-promoting impact in India under a time-varying parameter model with vector autoregressive specification. The Johansen’s co-integration test suggests a significant and positive long-run co-movement between FDI and export. The vector error correction model (VECM) confirms a unidirectional long-run causality from export to FDI. However, the Granger causality test establishes a bi-directional causal relationship between these variables in short run. Further, the foreign trade (FT) is found to be a strongly exogenous variable as per the variance decomposition analysis. Again, the impulse response function analysis suggests that the responses generated from a positive shock of FT to FDI and vice versa are small and initially negative, afterward remain steadily positive at a constant level. The study finally recommends the policymakers to channelize the inward-FDI into tradable goods industries rather than only linking it to service sector growth to reap the long-term benefit. In this regard, China’s effort to channelize inward-FDI into manufacturing sectors and the resultant momentous success in export performance can be taken as a classic example for FDI-led foreign trade promotion.

scholarly journals The Integration of Conventional Equity Indices with Environmental, Social, and Governance Indices: Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 676
Author(s):  
Ramiz ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Zain ul Abidin ◽  
Rizwan Ali ◽  
Safwan Mohd Nor ◽  
Muhammad Akram Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Indices

This study investigates the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) equity indices with conventional indices in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) individually and across all BRICS countries to better understand regional economic cooperation. Accordingly, we look at daily returns from 13 July 2013 to 28 February 2018 for the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) ESG indices and MSCI composite indices of the respective countries. To analyze the integration between the ESG equity indices of the sampled countries with their regional and across regional conventional counterparts, the Johansen Co-integration test is employed in this study. Further, the vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to test the causality between the sampled time-series. The impulse response function analysis further explains the impulse responses of each country’s MSCI ESG returns to one standard deviation of innovations to MSCI composite returns of the same country and across countries. Finally, the extent of the MSCI composite returns’ impact on the MSCI ESG returns in the same country indices, and cross-regional indices is examined with variance decomposition analysis. The results suggest that all ESG equity indices are integrated with conventional indices in all BRICS countries. Furthermore, there is a short-or long-run causality between MSCI ESG and MSCI composite equity indices of China and South Africa. Moreover, the study finds only short-run causality between conventional and non-conventional equity indices of Brazil and Russia, whereas we find only long-run causality between India’s non-conventional and conventional equity indices. Finally, the study finds that the all-individual country MSCI ESG equity indices shows a long-run causality with MSCI composite equity indices of all other BRICS countries. The findings also confirm the economic and financial cooperation between the BRICS countries.

Money Supply and Equity Price Movements During the Liberalized Period in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-123
Author(s):  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Krishna Dayal Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to contribute towards the prevalent understanding and the extant literatures on the effect of changes in money supply as an important monetary policy shock on the stock prices of India by using a time-varying parameter models with vector autoregressive specification during the period 1996 to 2016. The result of Johansen’s cointegration test suggests a significantly positive long-run co-movement between the growth of money supply and stock prices in India but the result of vector error correction model (VECM) does not exhibit any significant relationship in short run. Further, the error correction term of the VECM reveals a long-run unidirectional causality from money supply to stock prices. However, the Granger causality test confirms that the growth rate of money supply does not cause the stock market movement in India in short run. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis reveals that both the Indian stock markets are strongly exogenous in the sense that shocks to money supply explain only a small portion of the forecast variance error of the market indices. Again, the impulse response function analysis indicates that a positive shock in money supply has a small but persistently positive effect on stock prices in India.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development and Economic Growth Evidence from Saudi Arabia

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najeeb Muhammad Nasir ◽  
Mohammed Ziaur Rehman ◽  
Nasir Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Saudi Arabian ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
Integration Test

This study is an effort to explain and establish a relationship among foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth in Saudi Arabian context for the period of 1970 to 2015 by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and modified Granger Casualty Models. The result of Johansen co-integration test illustrates that no long run co-integration can be established among the variables. VAR has established a link between economic growth, financial development and foreign direct investment. The Granger causality test also confirms that economic growth causes foreign direct investment and financial development which is a unidirectional causality running from economic growth towards foreign direct investment and financial development. No significant causality can be observed empirically between foreign direct investment and financial development. This feature can be attributed to the fact that Saudi Arabian economy is still heavily dependent on its oil resources which is the driving force behind growth. Impulse Response Function has been utilized in order to observe the response to the shocks among the variables.

The Linkage between Chittagong Stock Market and Dhaka Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahidullah Tasfiq ◽  
◽  
Nasrin Jahan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis

This paper aims at determining the relationship between the two domestic stock markets of Bangladesh – the Chittagong Stock Market (CSE) and the Dhaka Stock Market (DSE). The daily stock price indices that represent the performance of the two stock markets are collected. In order to find out the interdependent relationship, the Engle-Granger Cointegration test, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition Analysis are employed in this paper. The main finding of this study is that both the stock markets are related in the long run. However, there is a one-way short-run effect from the DSE on the CSE market. The CSE market quickly responds to the shock in the DSE market. But, the DSE market is not responsive to the CSE market. The variance decomposition analysis shows that most of the shocks in the CSE market are explained by its own market. On the other hand, a small number of shocks in the DSE market are explained by the CSE market as well as its own market.

The Dynamic Relationship between Export, Import and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from India

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 294-311
Author(s):  
Malayaranjan Sahoo ◽  
Narayan Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Competitive Prices ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

This article aims to examine the relationship between inflation, export, import and foreign direct investment (FDI) in India from1975 to 2017. The study employed Johansen co-integration test to find out the long-run relationship among the variables and further variance decomposition analysis (VDA) and impulse response function (IRF) through vector autoregression (VAR) used to find out the dynamic relationship. Both VDA and IRF results indicate that export has positive or greater influence in inflation in India than other variables like import and FDI. The pair-wise granger causality approach finds that there is unidirectional causality running between exports and inflation and not vice versa, whereas inflation granger causes import. Toda Yamamoto causality also has shown similar result. Both the causality tests revealed that no causal relationships exist between inflation and FDI in India during the study period. As the exports of India have been continuously declining for past few years, the outcomes of this study are the true depiction of India’s economic situation. So, the government should provide a competitive environment and incentives to the local industry to produce at competitive prices to the international market.

scholarly journals The Lead and Lag Relationship Between Spot Market and Futures Market: Empirical Evidence From Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 192
Author(s):  
Nguyen Anh Phong ◽  
Ho Thi Hong Minh ◽  
Ngo Phu Thanh ◽  
Tran Nguyen Thanh Son
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

This study investigates the lead and lag relationship between Spot market and Futures market in Vietnam. In this study, we employ the data collected from stock-related database in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and Ha Noi Stock Exchange. The data of daily closing prices of VN30 index (the spot price) and VN30F1M (the 1-month future price of VN30 index) are then collected. We apply various methods, namely: Granger causality test, Johansen co-integration test, Vector Error Correlation Model, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition. The result of this paper is consistent with previous research. It finds strong evidence that Spot market leads Futures market in Vietnam stock market in both the short-run and long-run. Therefore, Spot market play a discovery role in which investors can obtain useful information from Spot market to improve their portfolio profit and minimize the risk. Besides, regulators can rely on this finding to come up with better policies and further develop Futures market.

scholarly journals Agricultural price transmission across space and time: The case of cowpea and yam markets in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-26
Author(s):  
Onyinyechukwu Onubogu ◽  
◽  
Adewale Dipeolu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Food Crisis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis

The transmission of price changes to markets has attracted renewed interest since the international food price spikes of 2007 to 2011. In response to this, this paper investigates the long-run behaviour of Nigerian cowpeas and yam tuber retail prices across space and time from 2000 to 2015. We employed the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, the Johansen co-integration test, the Granger causality test, the vector error-correction model (VECM) and variance decomposition analysis. The Johansen co-integration test confirmed the presence of a long-run relationship across the markets, while the VECM revealed that the speed of adjustment to equilibrium after price shocks in the yam and cowpea markets varied across space (market) and period (time), with the food crisis in the period pre-2007 to 2011 fastest and the food crisis in the period 2007 to 2011 slowest. We are of the opinion that the presence of a long-run relationship in Nigerian cowpea and yam markets is a call for participants to explore opportunities for gainful trade.

scholarly journals HINTERLAND MEDAN CITY BETWEEN BINJAI CITY: A GRAVITATION APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Hierarchical Relationship ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Variable Population ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The City

Regional economy explains that there is an urban hierarchical relationship, cities that have higher hierarchy will serve cities that are below it as well as cities that are in the hierarchy undersupplying cities that are in the hierarchy above them, so there is a gravitational relationship between the two. This study aims to determine the gravitational relationship of Medan city to the hinterland of the city of Binjai. Furthermore, this study also wants to explain its influence on economic growth in both cities. This analysis tools used are descriptive statistics, gravity models, unit root test, co-integration test, optimal lag, VECM, Granger causality test, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. The results showed that the city of Medan has a gravity style greater than the gravitational style of the city of Binjai. The VECM estimation results show that the gravitational variable in the city of Binjai in lag -1 and lag-2 has a positive and significant effect on the economy of Medan city. Then the economic variable of the city of Binjai itself in lag-1, the population of the city of Medan in lag-2 and the gravity of the city of Medan in lag-2 had a positive and significant effect on the economy of Binjai city. While the variable population of Binjai city in lag -1 and residents of the city of Medan in lag -1 negatively affected the economy of Binjai city.

scholarly journals General Patterns and Drivers of Changes in Employment Structure: Evidence from Five European Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-362
Author(s):  
Larysa Yakymova
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
National Level ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Impact Of Urbanization ◽  
The Impact

This paper seeks to answer whether the general patterns and drivers of the sectoral employment shifts depend on a country’s level of development. To accomplish this, we examined employment in Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Ukraine at the national level (1998-2018) using econometric analysis, and at the regional NUTS2 level (2009-2018) using shift-share analysis. We obtained evidence that the general trend is the service sector expansion. Using the ARDL approach and the Granger causality test, we identified long-run unidirectional causality running from income proxies to employment in services in all countries except Romania, where the opposite causality was found. We revealed that household income moderates the impact of urbanization on service sector growth in all countries except Poland. At the regional level, the change in the employment rate in services is explained by the national growth effect and slightly by the industry-mix effect if the active phase of structural changes is completed.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

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