Heat wave–related mortality in Sweden: A case-crossover study investigating effect modification by neighbourhood deprivation

Aims: The present study aimed to investigate if set thresholds in the Swedish heat-wave warning system are valid for all parts of Sweden and if the heat-wave warning system captures a potential increase in all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. An additional aim was to investigate whether neighbourhood deprivation modifies the relationship between heat waves and mortality. Methods: From 1990 until 2014, in 14 municipalities in Sweden, we collected data on daily maximum temperatures and mortality for the five warmest months. Heat waves were defined according to the categories used in the current Swedish heat-wave warning system. Using a case-crossover approach, we investigated the association between heat waves and mortality in Sweden, as well as a modifying effect of neighbourhood deprivation. Results: On a national as well as a regional level, heat waves significantly increased both all-cause mortality and CHD mortality by approximately 10% and 15%, respectively. While neighbourhood deprivation did not seem to modify heat wave–related all-cause mortality, CHD mortality did seem to modify the risk. Conclusions: It may not be appropriate to assume that heat waves in Sweden will have the same impact in a northern setting as in a southern, or that the impact of heat waves will be the same in affluent and deprived neighbourhoods. When designing and implementing heat-wave warning systems, neighbourhood, regional and national information should be incorporated.

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How Important is Vegetation Phenology for European Climate and Heat Waves?

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-13-00040.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (24) ◽

pp. 10077-10100 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Ruth Lorenz ◽

Edouard L. Davin ◽

David M. Lawrence ◽

Reto Stöckli ◽

Sonia I. Seneviratne

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Heat Wave ◽

Climate Model ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Vegetation Phenology ◽

Area Index ◽

Summer Climate ◽

European Climate ◽

The Impact

Abstract It has been hypothesized that vegetation phenology may play an important role for the midlatitude climate. This study investigates the impact of interannual and intraseasonal variations in phenology on European climate using regional climate model simulations. In addition, it assesses the relative importance of interannual variations in vegetation phenology and soil moisture on European summer climate. It is found that drastic phenological changes have a smaller effect on mean summer and spring climate than extreme changes in soil moisture (roughly ¼ of the temperature anomaly induced by soil moisture changes). However, the impact of phenological anomalies during heat waves is found to be more important. Generally, late and weak greening has amplifying effects and early and strong greening has dampening effects on heat waves; however, regional variations are found. The experiments suggest that in the extreme hot 2003 (western and central Europe) and 2007 (southeastern Europe) summers the decrease in leaf area index amplified the heat wave peaks by about 0.5°C for daily maximum temperatures (about half of the effect induced by soil moisture deficit). In contrast to earlier hypotheses, no anomalous early greening in spring 2003 is seen in the phenological dataset employed here. Hence, the results indicate that vegetation feedbacks amplified the 2003 heat wave but were not responsible for its initiation. In conclusion, the results suggest that phenology has a limited effect on European mean summer climate, but its impact can be as important as that induced by soil moisture anomalies in the context of specific extreme events.

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Impact of different heat wave definitions on daily mortality in Bandafassi, Senegal

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0249199 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

pp. e0249199

Author(s):

Mbaye Faye ◽

Abdoulaye Dème ◽

Abdou Kâ Diongue ◽

Ibrahima Diouf

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Age Groups ◽

Additive Model ◽

Total Mortality ◽

Warning System ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climate Services ◽

The Impact

Objective The aim of this study is to find the most suitable heat wave definition among 15 different ones and to evaluate its impact on total, age-, and gender-specific mortality for Bandafassi, Senegal. Methods Daily weather station data were obtained from Kedougou situated at 17 km from Bandafassi from 1973 to 2012. Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) are used to investigate the effect of heat wave on mortality and to evaluate the nonlinear association of heat wave definitions at different lag days, respectively. Results Heat wave definitions, based on three or more consecutive days with both daily minimum and maximum temperatures greater than the 90th percentile, provided the best model fit. A statistically significant increase in the relative risk (RRs 1.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.2–1.6), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9), 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.3), 1.2 (95% CI: 1.04–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8), 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.07–1.6), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8)) of total mortality was observed for eight definitions. By using the definition based on the 90th percentile of minimum and maximum temperature with a 3-day duration, we also found that females and people aged ≥ 55 years old were at higher risks than males and other different age groups to heat wave related mortality. Conclusion The impact of heat waves was associated with total-, age-, gender-mortality. These results are expected to be useful for decision makers who conceive of public health policies in Senegal and elsewhere. Climate parameters, including temperatures and humidity, could be used to forecast heat wave risks as an early warning system in the area where we conduct this research. More broadly, our findings should be highly beneficial to climate services, researchers, clinicians, end-users and decision-makers.

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Summer variation of the UTCI index and Heat Waves in Serbia

10.5194/nhess-2019-270 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Milica M. Pecelj ◽

Milica Z. Lukić ◽

Dejan J. Filipović ◽

Branko M. Protić

Keyword(s):

Heat Stress ◽

Heat Wave ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Heat Budget ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Climate Index ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Thermal Climate ◽

Maximum Temperatures ◽

Novi Sad

Abstract. The objective of this paper is the assessment of bioclimatic conditions in Sebia. A special emphasis has been given to the heat budget bioclimatic Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) whose purpose is to evaluate degree of thermal stress that human body is exposed to during the last twenty years. In addition, the thresholds of daily maximum temperatures are analysed in order to identify increase and frequency of heat waves in Serbia. For this research, daily and hourly (07 h and 14 h) meteorological data from 3 weather station (Mt. Zlatibor, Novi Sad, Niš) are collected for the period 1998–2017. The results show that the most frequent UTCI heat stress categories are strong heat stress and very strong heat stress. The most extreme heat waves events are occurred in 2007, 2012, 2015 and 2017. Moreover, there were three Heat wave events (HWE) in Niš occurred in July, 2007 lasting 3, 10 and 4 days in row. Heat wave events (HWE) In July 2007 (10 days) and July 2012 (9 days) in Niš are occurrences with maximum number of days in row recorded.

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Evaluating Mortality Response Associated with Two Different Nordic Heat Warning Systems in Riga, Latvia

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17217719 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (21) ◽

pp. 7719 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kerstin Pfeifer ◽

Daniel Oudin Åström ◽

Žanna Martinsone ◽

Darja Kaļužnaja ◽

Anna Oudin

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Heat Wave ◽

Cardiovascular Mortality ◽

Health Problem ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Warning System ◽

Public Health Problem ◽

Short Term ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Specific Mortality

Background and objectives: Progressing climate change is accompanied by a worldwide increase in the intensity, frequency, and duration of heat wave events. Research has shown that heat waves are an emerging public health problem, as they have a significant impact on mortality. As studies exploring this relationship are scarce for Latvia, this study aims to investigate the short-term associations between heat waves and all-cause mortality as well as cause-specific mortality, during the summer months (May-September) in Riga. Materials and Methods: An ecological time series study using daily reported mortality and temperature data from Riga between 2009 and 2015 was employed. Heat waves were defined based on the categories of the Latvian and Swedish heat warning system. Using a Quasi-Poisson regression, the relationships between heat waves and all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality were investigated. Results: Heat waves in Riga were associated with a 10% to 20% increase in the risk of all-cause mortality, depending on the applied heat wave definition, compared to days with normal temperature. In addition, heat-related mortality was found to increase significantly in the ≥65 age group between 12% and 22% during heat waves. In terms of cause-specific mortality, a significant increase of approximately 15% to 26% was observed for cardiovascular mortality. No significant associations were found between heat waves and respiratory or external causes of mortality. Conclusion: These results indicate that there are short-term associations between heat waves and all-cause as well as cardiovascular mortality in Riga and that heat waves therefore represent a public health problem in this Baltic city.

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The Use of a Quasi-Experimental Study on the Mortality Effect of a Heat Wave Warning System in Korea

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16122245 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (12) ◽

pp. 2245 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Seulkee Heo ◽

Amruta Nori-Sarma ◽

Kwonsang Lee ◽

Tarik Benmarhnia ◽

Francesca Dominici ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Economic Status ◽

Warning System ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Respiratory Mortality ◽

Blue Collar Workers ◽

Mortality Effect ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Quasi Experimental

Many cities and countries have implemented heat wave warning systems to combat the health effects of extreme heat. Little is known about whether these systems actually reduce heat-related morbidity and mortality. We examined the effectiveness of heat wave alerts and health plans in reducing the mortality risk of heat waves in Korea by utilizing the discrepancy between the alerts and the monitored temperature. A difference-in-differences analysis combined with propensity score weighting was used. Mortality, weather monitoring, and heat wave alert announcement data were collected for 7 major cities during 2009–2014. Results showed evidence of risk reduction among people aged 19–64 without education (−0.144 deaths/1,000,000 people, 95% CI: −0.227, −0.061) and children aged 0–19 (−0.555 deaths/1,000,000 people, 95% CI: −0.993, −0.117). Decreased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was found in several subgroups including single persons, widowed people, blue-collar workers, people with no education or the highest level of education (university or higher). No evidence was found for decreased all-cause mortality in the population (1.687 deaths/1,000,000 people per day; 95% CI: 1.118, 2.255). In conclusion, heat wave alerts may reduce mortality for several causes and subpopulations of age and socio-economic status. Further work needs to examine the pathways through which the alerts impact subpopulations differently.

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Abstract P069: Heat, Heat Waves and Hospital Admissions in Indianapolis, Indiana

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.135.suppl_1.p069 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Yi Wang

Keyword(s):

Myocardial Infarction ◽

Heart Failure ◽

Relative Risk ◽

Heat Wave ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Global Climate ◽

Extreme Heat ◽

Apparent Temperature ◽

The Impact

Background: The association between heat and hospital admissions is well studied, but in Indiana where the regulatory agencies cites lack of evidence for global climate change, local evidence of such an association is critical for Indiana to mitigate the impact of increasing heat. Methods: Using a distributed-lag non-linear model, we studied the effects of moderate (31.7 °C or 90 th percentile of daily mean apparent temperature (AT)), severe (33.5 °C or 95 th percentile of daily mean apparent temperature (AT)) and extreme (36.4 °C or 99 th percentile of AT) heat on hospital admissions (June-August 2007-2012) for cardiovascular (myocardial infarction, myocardial infarction, heart failure) and heat-related diseases in Indianapolis, Indiana located in Marion County. We also examined the added effects of moderate heat waves (AT above the 90 th percentile lasting 2-6 days), severe heat waves (AT above the 95 th percentile lasting 2-6 days) and extreme heat waves (AT above the 99 th percentile lasting 2-6 days). In sensitivity analysis, we tested robustness of our results to 1) different temperature and lag structures and 2) temperature metrics (daily min, max and diurnal temperature range). Results: The relative risks of moderate heat, relative to 29.2°C (75 th percentile of AT), on admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), and heat-related diseases (HD) were 0.98 (0.67, 1.44), 6.28 (1.48, 26.6), 1.38 (0.81, 2.36) and 1.73 (0.58, 5.11). The relative risk of severe heat on admissions for CVD, MI, HF, and HD were 0.93 (0.60, 1.43), 4.46 (0.85, 23.4), 1.30 (0.72, 2.34) and 2.14 (0.43, 10.7). The relative risk of extreme heat were 0.79 (0.26, 2.39), 0.11 (0.087, 1.32), 0.68 (0.18, 2.61), and 0.32 (0.005, 19.5). We also observed statistically significant added effects of moderate heat waves lasting 4 or 6 days on hospital admission for MI and HD and extreme heat waves lasting 4 days on hospital admissions for HD. Results were strengthened for people older than 65. Conclusions: Moderate heat wave lasting 4-6 days were associated with increased hospital admissions for MI and HD diseases and extreme heat wave lasting 4 days were associated with increased admissions for HD.

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Extreme Temperature Events in Serbia in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12121584 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 1584

Author(s):

Ivana Tošić ◽

Suzana Putniković ◽

Milica Tošić ◽

Irida Lazić

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Extreme Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Absolute Maximum ◽

Extreme Temperature Events ◽

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽

Circulation Patterns ◽

Maximum Temperatures ◽

The Relationship

In this study, extremely warm and cold temperature events were examined based on daily maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperatures observed at 11 stations in Serbia during the period 1949–2018. Summer days (SU), warm days (Tx90), and heat waves (HWs) were calculated based on daily maximum temperatures, while frost days (FD) and cold nights (Tn10) were derived from daily minimum temperatures. Absolute maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia rose but were statistically significant only for Tx in winter. Positive trends of summer and warm days, and negative trends of frost days and cold nights were found. A high number of warm events (SU, Tx90, and HWs) were recorded over the last 20 years. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were applied to find the relationship between extreme temperature events and atmospheric circulation. Typical atmospheric circulation patterns, previously determined for Serbia, were used as predictor variables. It was found that MLR models gave the best results for Tx90, FD, and Tn10 in winter.

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Compound Droughts and Heat Waves in China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11123270 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 3270 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Lei Ye ◽

Ke Shi ◽

Zhuohang Xin ◽

Chao Wang ◽

Chi Zhang

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

North China ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Northwest China ◽

Central China ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The 1960S ◽

Increasing Trends ◽

Climate Events ◽

The Impact

Droughts and heat waves both are natural extreme climate events occurring in most parts of the world. To understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of droughts and heat waves in China, we examine changes in droughts, heat waves, and the compound of both during 1961–2017 based on high resolution gridded monthly sc_PDSI and daily temperature data. Results show that North China and Northwest China are the two regions that experience the most frequent droughts, while Central China is the least drought-affected region. Significant drought decreasing trends were mostly observed Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet provinces, while the belt region between Yunnan and Heilongjiang provinces experienced significant drought increasing trends. Heat waves occur more frequently than droughts, and the increase of heat wave occurrence is also more obvious. The increasing of heat wave occurrence since the 2000s has been unprecedented. The compound droughts and heat waves were mild from the 1960s to 1980s, and began to increase in 1990s. Furthermore, the significant increasing trends of the percentage of compound droughts and heat waves to droughts are observed in entire China, and more than 90% drought occurrences are accompanied by one or more heat waves in the 2010s. The results highlight the increased percentage of compound droughts and heat waves and call for improved efforts on assessing the impact of compound extremes, especially in an era of changing climate.

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Extreme Weather Impacts on Inland Waterways Transport of Yangtze River

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10030133 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 133 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Lijun Liu ◽

Yuanqiao Wen ◽

Youjia Liang ◽

Fan Zhang ◽

Tiantian Yang

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Climate Zone ◽

Inland Waterways ◽

Weather Events ◽

The Impact

The impact of extreme weather events on the navigation environment in the inland waterways of the Yangtze River is an interdisciplinary hotspot in subjects of maritime traffic safety and maritime meteorology, and it is also a difficult point for the implementation of decision-making and management by maritime and meteorological departments in China. The objective of this study is to review the variation trends and distribution patterns in the periods of adverse and extreme weather events that are expected to impact on inland waterways transport (IWT) on the Yangtze River. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the ERA-Interim datasets (1979–2017) and the GHCNDEX dataset (1979–2017), as well as the research progresses and important events (2004–2016) affecting the navigation environment. The impacts of extreme weather events on IWT accidents and phenomena of extreme weather (e.g., thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and tornadoes) that affect the navigation environment are also analyzed and discussed. The results show that: (1) the sections located in the plain climate zone is affected by extreme weather in every season, especially strong winds and heat waves; (2) the sections located in the hilly mountain climate zone is affected particularly by spring extreme phenomena, especially heat waves; (3) the sections located in the Sichuan Basin climate zone is dominated by the extreme weather phenomena in autumn, except cold waves; (4) the occurrence frequency of potential flood risk events is relatively high under rainstorm conditions and wind gusts almost affect the navigation environment of the Jiangsu and Shanghai sections in every year; (5) the heat wave indices (TXx, TR, and WSDI) tend to increase and the temperature of the coldest day of the year gradually increases; (6) the high occurrences of IWT accidents need to be emphasized by relevant departments, caused by extreme weather during the dry season; and (7) the trends and the degree of attention of extreme weather events affecting IWT are ranked as: heat wave > heavy rainfall > wind gust > cold spell > storm. Understanding the seasonal and annual frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events has reference significance for regional management of the Yangtze River.

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Analysis of the extreme heat events in Iran

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ◽

10.1108/ijccsm-04-2016-0046 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 418-432 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Hojjatollah Yazdanpanah ◽

Josef Eitzinger ◽

Marina Baldi

Keyword(s):

Trend Analysis ◽

Heat Wave ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Content Type ◽

Hot Days

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the spatial and temporal variations of extreme hot days (H*) and heat wave frequencies across Iran. Design/methodology/approach The authors used daily maximum temperature (Tmax) data of 27 synoptic stations in Iran. These data were standardized using the mean and the standard deviation of each day of the year. An extreme hot day was defined when the Z score of daily maximum temperature of that day was equal or more than a given threshold fixed at 1.7, while a heat wave event was considered to occur when the Z score exceeds the threshold for at least three continuous days. According to these criteria, the annual frequency of extreme hot days and the number of heat waves were determined for all stations. Findings The trend analysis of H* shows a positive trend during the past two decades in Iran, with the maximum number of H* (110 cases) observed in 2010. A significant trend of the number of heat waves per year was also detected during 1991-2013 in all the stations. Overall, results indicate that Iran has experienced heat waves in recent years more often than its long-term average. There will be more frequent and intense hot days and heat waves across Iran until 2050, due to estimated increase of mean air temperature between 0.5-1.1 and 0.8-1.6 degree centigrade for Rcp2.6 and Rcp8.8 scenarios, respectively. Originality/value The trend analysis of hot days and heat wave frequencies is a particularly original aspect of this paper. It is very important for policy- and decision-makers especially in agriculture and health sectors of Iran to make some adaptation strategies for future frequent and intense hot days over Iran.

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