scholarly journals Summer variation of the UTCI index and Heat Waves in Serbia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milica M. Pecelj ◽  
Milica Z. Lukić ◽  
Dejan J. Filipović ◽  
Branko M. Protić
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Novi Sad

Abstract. The objective of this paper is the assessment of bioclimatic conditions in Sebia. A special emphasis has been given to the heat budget bioclimatic Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) whose purpose is to evaluate degree of thermal stress that human body is exposed to during the last twenty years. In addition, the thresholds of daily maximum temperatures are analysed in order to identify increase and frequency of heat waves in Serbia. For this research, daily and hourly (07 h and 14 h) meteorological data from 3 weather station (Mt. Zlatibor, Novi Sad, Niš) are collected for the period 1998–2017. The results show that the most frequent UTCI heat stress categories are strong heat stress and very strong heat stress. The most extreme heat waves events are occurred in 2007, 2012, 2015 and 2017. Moreover, there were three Heat wave events (HWE) in Niš occurred in July, 2007 lasting 3, 10 and 4 days in row. Heat wave events (HWE) In July 2007 (10 days) and July 2012 (9 days) in Niš are occurrences with maximum number of days in row recorded.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index during heat waves in Serbia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 2021-2036
Author(s):  
Milica M. Pecelj ◽  
Milica Z. Lukić ◽  
Dejan J. Filipović ◽  
Branko M. Protić ◽  
Uroš M. Bogdanović
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Universal Thermal Climate Index ◽  
Bioclimatic Index ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Heat Hazard

Abstract. The objective of this paper is to assess the bioclimatic conditions in Serbia during summer in order to identify biothermal heat hazard. Special emphasis is placed on the bioclimatic index UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index), whose purpose is to evaluate the degree of thermal stress that the human body is exposed to. For this research, mean daily and hourly (07:00 and 14:00 CET) meteorological data from three weather stations (Zlatibor, Novi Sad and Niš) have been collected for the period from 1998 to 2017. In order to identify patterns of biothermal heat stress conditions, the thresholds of the daily UTCI (UTCI ≥38 ∘C, referred to as very strong heat stress, VSHS) at 14:00 CET are compared with the thresholds of daily maximum air temperature (tmax⁡≥35 ∘C, referred to as hot days, HDs), which are further termed as heat wave events (HWEs). The findings show that the UTCI heat stress category “very strong heat stress“ at 14:00 CET indicates heat waves. The most extreme heat wave events occurred in 2007, 2012, 2015 and 2017. Moreover, three HWEs at Niš that occurred in July 2007 lasted 3, 10 and 4 d. HWEs and very strong heat stress events (VSHSEs) recorded in July 2007 (lasted 10 d each), 2012 (lasted 9 and 12 d) and 2015 (lasted 7 and 10 d) were of the longest duration and are considered to be the indicators of biothermal heat hazard. The daily UTCI14 h heat stress becomes more extreme in terms of severity and heat wave duration up to very strong heat stress.

scholarly journals Multi-Annual Changes in Heat Stress Occurrence and Its Circulation Conditions in the Polish–Saxon Border Region

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Bartłomiej Miszuk
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Annual Changes ◽  
Tourist Region ◽  
Very High

Heat stress is one of the most critical factors affecting human life. In Central Europe, its influence is noticeable, especially in the Polish–Saxon region, which is a very popular tourist region also inhabited by a high number of elders. The main goal of this paper was to assess multi-annual changes in heat stress occurring in the region, considering the frequency of heat days, the UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index), and circulation conditions. The research showed that all the thermal and biothermal indices in this region significantly increased during 1971–2019 in the lowlands, the mountain foreland, and the lower mountain zone. In terms of the UTCI, a negative trend for cold stress frequency was noticed in the entire region in favor of an increase in a tendency toward thermoneutral conditions and heat stress. This concerns especially strong and very strong heat stress (UTCI > 32 °C), in which positive trends were observed for most of the stations located in the lower hypsometric zones. The results also showed that heat stress mainly occurs on days with anticyclonic circulation. Analysis of selected cases of heat waves in the 21st century indicated that the lower hypsometric zones are characterized by a very high UTCI, while the summit zone is free from heat stress occurrence.

scholarly journals Heat strain and mortality effects of prolonged central European heat wave—an example of June 2019 in Poland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Błażejczyk ◽  
Robert Twardosz ◽  
Piotr Wałach ◽  
Kaja Czarnecka ◽  
Anna Błażejczyk
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Heat Strain ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Human Organism ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Severe Heat Stress

AbstractThe occurrence of long-lasting severe heat stress, such as in July–August 2003, July 2010, or in April–May 2018 has been one of the biggest meteorological threats in Europe in recent years. The paper focuses on the biometeorological and mortality effects of the hot June that was observed in Central Europe in 2019. The basis of the study was hourly and daily Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) values at meteorological stations in Poland for June 2019. The average monthly air temperature and UTCI values from 1951 to 2018 were analysed as background. Grosswetterlagen calendar of atmospheric circulation was used to assess synoptic conditions of heat wave. Several heat strain measures were applied : net heat storage (S), modelled heart rate (HR), sultriness (HSI), and UTCI index. Actual total mortality (TM) and modelled strong heat-related mortality (SHRM) were taken as indicators of biometeorological consequences of the hot June in 2019. The results indicate that prolonged persistence of unusually warm weather in June 2019 was determined by the synoptic conditions occurring over the European region and causing advection of tropical air. They led to the emergence of heat waves causing 10% increase in TM and 5 times bigger SHRM then in preceding 10 years. Such increase in SHRM was an effect of overheating and overload of circulatory system of human organism.

scholarly journals Heat wave–related mortality in Sweden: A case-crossover study investigating effect modification by neighbourhood deprivation

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 428-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Oudin Åström ◽  
Christofer Åström ◽  
Bertil Forsberg ◽  
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera ◽  
Antonio Gasparrini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Neighbourhood Deprivation ◽  
Deprived Neighbourhoods ◽  
Case Crossover ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The Impact

Aims: The present study aimed to investigate if set thresholds in the Swedish heat-wave warning system are valid for all parts of Sweden and if the heat-wave warning system captures a potential increase in all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. An additional aim was to investigate whether neighbourhood deprivation modifies the relationship between heat waves and mortality. Methods: From 1990 until 2014, in 14 municipalities in Sweden, we collected data on daily maximum temperatures and mortality for the five warmest months. Heat waves were defined according to the categories used in the current Swedish heat-wave warning system. Using a case-crossover approach, we investigated the association between heat waves and mortality in Sweden, as well as a modifying effect of neighbourhood deprivation. Results: On a national as well as a regional level, heat waves significantly increased both all-cause mortality and CHD mortality by approximately 10% and 15%, respectively. While neighbourhood deprivation did not seem to modify heat wave–related all-cause mortality, CHD mortality did seem to modify the risk. Conclusions: It may not be appropriate to assume that heat waves in Sweden will have the same impact in a northern setting as in a southern, or that the impact of heat waves will be the same in affluent and deprived neighbourhoods. When designing and implementing heat-wave warning systems, neighbourhood, regional and national information should be incorporated.

On exposure of land area and population to heat waves and cold waves in a changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Hampshire ◽  
Neven Fuckar ◽  
Clare Heaviside ◽  
Myles Allen
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Cold Waves ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>As climate changes – potentially to a warmer state than any time during the evolution of humans – heat extremes threatening human health, global ecosystem and socio-economic fabric of our society are occurring at increasing frequency and intensity in most parts of the world. This study examines changes in global land area and population exposed to both tails of temperature distribution in changing climate since heat and cold exposure is directly associated with a range of health impacts and affects thermal comfort and occupational capacity. We first utilise the latest ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis, ERA5, to examine changes over the satellite era (since 1979), and then we explore the equivalent changes in CMIP6 archive of historical runs and future projections. Besides daily maximum and minimum of dry-bulb surface air temperature (SAT), we also consider daily extremes of the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) that includes the influence of humidity, wind and radiation encapsulating the synergetic heat exchanges between the environment and the human body. Our analysis dissects changes in spatial and temporal exposure to both heat waves and cold waves and presents metrics contrasting changes in the opposite extremes of SAT and UTCI distributions. We assess the significance of the observed, modelled and projected changes and relate them to external drivers of climate change.</p>

scholarly journals Biothermal conditions on Mt. Zlatibor based on thermophysiological indices

2017 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 455-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milica Pecelj ◽  
Aleksandar Djordjevic ◽  
Milovan Pecelj ◽  
Jelena Pecelj-Purkovic ◽  
Dejan Filipovic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Bioclimatic Indices ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Human Bioclimatology ◽  
A Site ◽  
The City

This paper presents part of the research in the field of human bioclimatology and refers to biothermal conditions in different geographical environments in Serbia: an urban area and a mountain of medium height. The goal of the paper was to show bioclimatic differences during the summer between the city of Belgrade (116 m a.s.l.) and the mountain resort of Zlatibor (1498 m a.s.l.). The basic principle of bioclimatic analysis is the human heat balance between man and environment. This methodological approach is a combination of physiological and meteorological parameters that result in thermophysiological bioclimatic indices: heat load (HL) in man and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). For this analysis, weather data for July, as the warmest month, was obtained, using daily meteorological data for the decade from 2000 to 2010. Results for July indicate a considerable difference between the two abovementioned environments. HL in Belgrade was dominated by degrees of comfort ?hot? and ?extremely hot, with the highest value of 4.540, while for Zlatibor the dominant degree of comfort was ?warm?. The UTCI in Belgrade has dominated by strong heat stress and moderate heat stress, compared to Zlatibor where the UTCI is dominated by moderate heat stress. In addition, a significant part of the monitored decade on Mt. Zlatibor was without heat stress, with the exception of 2006 and 2007, indicating favorable biothermal characteristics. Therefore, compared to Belgrade, with its considerably lower overall heat stress Zlatibor has the characteristics of a site with favorable bioclimatic qualities.

scholarly journals Assessing the Climatological Relationship between Heatstroke Risk and Heat Stress Indices in 47 Prefectures in Japan

GeoHazards ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-331
Author(s):  
Yuki Iwamoto ◽  
Yukitaka Ohashi
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Stress Indices ◽  
Wet Bulb Globe Temperature ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Globe Temperature ◽  
Northern Japan

This study provides a decade-long link between summer heatstroke incidence and certain heat stress indices in 47 prefectures of Japan. The results for each prefecture were determined from the age-adjusted heatstroke incidence rate (TRadj) with heatstroke patients transported by ambulance, as well as from the daily maximum temperature (TEMPmax), maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGTmax), and maximum universal thermal climate index (UTCImax) recorded from July to September of 2010–2019. The UTCImax relatively increased the vulnerability in many prefectures of northern Japan more distinctly than the other indices. In the following analysis, the ratio of the TRadj of the hottest to coolest months using the UTCImax was defined as the heatstroke risk of the hottest to coolest (HRHC). Overall, the HRHC varied approximately from 20 to 40 in many prefectures in the past decade. In contrast, for the same analysis performed in each month, HRHC ratios in July and August fell within 2–4 in many prefectures, whereas in September, the average and maximum HRHC ratios for all prefectures were 7.0 and 32.4, respectively. This difference can be related to the large difference in UTCImax between the maximum and minimum for a decade.

scholarly journals Intensity of heat stress in 2015 and 2018 summer seasons in the region of the Lower Silesia (Poland)

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 138-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bartłomiej Miszuk
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Human Organism ◽  
Universal Thermal Climate Index ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Lower Silesia

AbstractThe main goal of this paper was to assess the intensity of heat stress in Lower Silesia, Poland, during selected weather events characterized by high air temperatures. The complex impact of weather on the thermal load of the human organism is presented using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The analysis was carried out for the 2015 and 2018 summer seasons and compared with the multiannual period of 1971–2018. It was based on meteorological data from the IMGW-PIB stations of Wrocław, Jelenia Góra and Śnieżka. In order to examine how heat conditions affect UTCI in different geographical regions, stations located at different altitudes and representing the lowlands, the lower mountain zone and the summit zone of the Sudetes Mountains were considered. The research showed that during the most extreme thermal events, UTCI values in the lowlands and the lower mountain zones can be among the highest heat stress classes. In the summit zone, the maximum UTCI values are usually classed as ‘no thermal stress’.

UTCI as the NWP model ALADIN (CHMI) output – first experiences

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-249
Author(s):  
Martin Novák
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Basic Information ◽  
Universal Thermal Climate Index ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasters ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Nwp Model

The article includes a summary of basic information about the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) calculation by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). Examples of operational outputs for weather forecasters in the CHMI are shown in the first part of this work. The second part includes results of a comparison of computed UTCI values by ALADIN for selected place with UTCI values computed from real measured meteorological data from the same place.

scholarly journals Extreme Temperature Events in Serbia in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1584
Author(s):  
Ivana Tošić ◽  
Suzana Putniković ◽  
Milica Tošić ◽  
Irida Lazić
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, extremely warm and cold temperature events were examined based on daily maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperatures observed at 11 stations in Serbia during the period 1949–2018. Summer days (SU), warm days (Tx90), and heat waves (HWs) were calculated based on daily maximum temperatures, while frost days (FD) and cold nights (Tn10) were derived from daily minimum temperatures. Absolute maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia rose but were statistically significant only for Tx in winter. Positive trends of summer and warm days, and negative trends of frost days and cold nights were found. A high number of warm events (SU, Tx90, and HWs) were recorded over the last 20 years. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were applied to find the relationship between extreme temperature events and atmospheric circulation. Typical atmospheric circulation patterns, previously determined for Serbia, were used as predictor variables. It was found that MLR models gave the best results for Tx90, FD, and Tn10 in winter.

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