Impact of climate change on future bioclimatic potential and residential building thermal and energy performance in India

2021 ◽  
pp. 1420326X2199391
Author(s):  
Naveen Kishore
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Passive Strategies

This paper aims to investigate the implication of present and future bioclimatic potential of passive heating and cooling design strategies for climate change scenarios of five locations covering all climate zones of India. Weather data for future climate change were developed for A2 (medium-high) scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for four time slices, namely TMY (Typical Meteorological Year), 2020, 2050 and 2080. A case study residential building was used for calibration and validation of the bioclimatic potential using EnergyPlus simulation. Results show a strong correlation between the annual bioclimatic summer and winter discomfort hours and the corresponding annual cooling and heating energy load for the changing climate scenarios. Results also show an overall increase in annual cooling energy load, over and above the base case, ranging from 18% to 89% among the five cities in 2020; 32% to 132% in 2050 and 58% to 184% in 2080 if residential buildings continue to be operated in the same manner as it is done today without passive strategies. The use of passive strategies may reduce the annual cooling load by about 50%– 60% in residential buildings in future.

scholarly journals Impact of IPPC Scenarios on indoor environment quality of historic buildings

2019 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 03054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Weyr ◽  
Richard Kalný ◽  
Jiří Hirš
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indoor Environment ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Environment Quality ◽  
Indoor Environment Quality ◽  
The Impact

Ensuring proper indoor environment quality in buildings with historic value or buildings located in historic centres of cities is not an easy task. These buildings are frequently listed in historic preservation lists; thus, the amount of possible refurbishment methods is significantly limited due to increased protection. This article deals with comprehensive analysis of internal microclimate of a multi-purpose building located in the historic centre of Prague during summer period. Possible refurbishment methods permitted by the National Heritage Institute are analysed and compared using building energy performance simulation tool BSim in order to achieve proper working conditions in offices in the building. Structural and technical modifications are proposed in order to optimize the amount of solar heat gains leading to reduction of overheating and increase of energy efficiency. Furthermore, two global warming projections from the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are applied to the current weather data to examine the impact of the global climate change on the building. As expected, the cooling demand increases with the climate change scenarios presenting more difficult challenges to maintain the indoor environment quality within the limitations given by the legislation.

scholarly journals Alaskan soil carbon stocks: spatial variability and dependence on environmental factors

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 5695-5718 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Mishra ◽  
W. J. Riley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Soil Wetness ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. The direction and magnitude of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes in response to climate change depend on the spatial and vertical distributions of SOC. We estimated spatially-resolved SOC stocks from surface to C horizon, distinguishing active-layer and permafrost-layer stocks, based on geospatial analysis of 472 soil profiles and spatially referenced environmental variables for Alaska. Total Alaska state-wide SOC stock was estimated to be 77 Pg, with 61% in the active-layer, 27% in permafrost, and 12% in non-permafrost soils. Prediction accuracy was highest for the active-layer as demonstrated by highest ratio of performance to deviation (1.5). Large spatial variability was predicted, with whole-profile, active-layer, and permafrost-layer stocks ranging from 1–296 kg C m−2, 2–166 kg m−2, and 0–232 kg m−2, respectively. Temperature and soil wetness were found to be primary controllers of whole-profile, active-layer, and permafrost-layer SOC stocks. Secondary controllers, in order of importance, were: land cover type, topographic attributes, and bedrock geology. The observed importance of soil wetness rather than precipitation on SOC stocks implies that the poor representation of high-latitude soil wetness in Earth System Models may lead to large uncertainty in predicted SOC stocks under future climate change scenarios. Under strict caveats described in the text and assuming temperature changes from the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario, our geospatial model indicates that the equilibrium average 2100 Alaska active-layer depth could deepen by 11 cm, resulting in a thawing of 13 Pg C currently in permafrost. The equilibrium SOC loss associated with this warming would be highest under continuous permafrost (31%), followed by discontinuous (28%), isolated (24.3%), and sporadic (23.6%) permafrost areas. Our high resolution mapping of soil carbon stock reveals the potential vulnerability of high-latitude soil carbon and can be used as a basis for future studies of anthropogenic and climatic perturbations.

scholarly journals How Climate Trends Impact on the Thermal Performance of a Typical Residential Building in Madrid

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 237 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Soutullo ◽  
E. Giancola ◽  
M. J. Jiménez ◽  
J. A. Ferrer ◽  
M. N. Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Minimum Energy ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Design Strategies ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Minimum Energy Consumption ◽  
The Impact

Based on the European energy directives, the building sector has to provide comfortable levels for occupants with minimum energy consumption as well as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper aims to compare the impact of climate change on the energy performance of residential buildings in order to derive potential design strategies. Different climate file inputs of Madrid have been used to quantify comparatively the thermal needs of two reference residential buildings located in this city. One of them represents buildings older than 40 years built according to the applicable Spanish regulations prior to 1979. The other refers to buildings erected in the last decade under more energy-restrictive constructive regulations. Three different climate databases of Madrid have been used to assess the impact of the evolution of the climate in recent years on the thermal demands of these two reference buildings. Two of them are typical meteorological years (TMY) derived from weather data measured before 2000. On the contrary, the third one is an experimental file representing the average values of the meteorological variables registered in Madrid during the last decade. Annual and monthly comparisons are done between the three climate databases assessing the climate changes. Compared to the TMYs databases, the experimental one records an average air temperature of 1.8 °C higher and an average value of relative humidity that is 9% lower.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Paddy Yield: A Case Study of Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC), Tarahara, Nepal

1970 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yam K Rai ◽  
Bhakta B Ale ◽  
Jawed Alam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Research Council ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and global warming are burning issues, which significantly threat agriculture and global food security. Change in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation will influence the change in crop yields and hence economy of agriculture. It is possible to understand the phenomenon of climate change on crop production and to develop adaptation strategies for sustainability in food production, using a suitable crop simulation model. CERES-Rice model of DSSAT v4.0 was used to simulate the rice yield of the region under climate change scenarios using the historical weather data at Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC) Tarahara (1989-2008). The Crop Model was calibrated using the experimental crop data, climate data and soil data for two years (2000-2001) and was validated by using the data of the year 2002 at NARC Tarahara. In this study various scenarios were undertaken to analyze the rice yield. The change in values of weather parameters due to climate change and its effects on the rice yield were studied. It was observed that increase in maximum temperature up to 2°C and 1°C in minimum temperature have positive impact on rice yield but beyond that temperature it was observed negative impact in both cases of paddy production in ambient temperature. Similarly, it was observed that increased in mean temperature, have negative impacts on rice yield. The impact of solar radiation in rice yield was observed positive during the time of study period. Adjustments were made in the fertilizer rate, plant density per square meter, planting date and application of water rate to investigate suitable agronomic options for adaptation under the future climate change scenarios. Highest yield was obtained when the water application was increased up to 3 mm depth and nitrogen application rate was 140 kg/ha respectively. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jie.v8i3.5941 JIE 2011; 8(3): 147-167

scholarly journals Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teng Long ◽  
Junfeng Tang ◽  
Nicholas Pilfold ◽  
Xuzhe Zhao ◽  
Tingfa Dong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Range

Understanding and predicting how species will response to future climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we conducted an assessment of future climate change impacts on the distribution of D. involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. These findings suggest that it is of great urgent and significance to adaptive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

scholarly journals Alaskan soil carbon stocks: spatial variability and dependence on environmental factors

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3637-3645 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Mishra ◽  
W. J. Riley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Soil Wetness ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. The direction and magnitude of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes in response to climate change depend on the spatial and vertical distributions of SOC. We estimated spatially resolved SOC stocks from surface to C horizon, distinguishing active-layer and permafrost-layer stocks, based on geospatial analysis of 472 soil profiles and spatially referenced environmental variables for Alaska. Total Alaska state-wide SOC stock was estimated to be 77 Pg, with 61% in the active-layer, 27% in permafrost, and 12% in non-permafrost soils. Prediction accuracy was highest for the active-layer as demonstrated by highest ratio of performance to deviation (1.5). Large spatial variability was predicted, with whole-profile, active-layer, and permafrost-layer stocks ranging from 1–296 kg C m−2, 2–166 kg m−2, and 0–232 kg m−2, respectively. Temperature and soil wetness were found to be primary controllers of whole-profile, active-layer, and permafrost-layer SOC stocks. Secondary controllers, in order of importance, were found to be land cover type, topographic attributes, and bedrock geology. The observed importance of soil wetness rather than precipitation on SOC stocks implies that the poor representation of high-latitude soil wetness in Earth system models may lead to large uncertainty in predicted SOC stocks under future climate change scenarios. Under strict caveats described in the text and assuming temperature changes from the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario, our geospatial model indicates that the equilibrium average 2100 Alaska active-layer depth could deepen by 11 cm, resulting in a thawing of 13 Pg C currently in permafrost. The equilibrium SOC loss associated with this warming would be highest under continuous permafrost (31%), followed by discontinuous (28%), isolated (24.3%), and sporadic (23.6%) permafrost areas. Our high-resolution mapping of soil carbon stock reveals the potential vulnerability of high-latitude soil carbon and can be used as a basis for future studies of anthropogenic and climatic perturbations.

scholarly journals Spatial forecasting of red palm mite in Brazil under current and future climate change scenarios

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 586-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denise Navia ◽  
Emília Hamada ◽  
Manoel Guedes Correa Gondim Jr. ◽  
Norton Polo Benito
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Red Palm Mite

Abstract: The objective of this work was to predict the spatial distribution of the red palm mite, Raoiella indica (Acari: Tenuipalpidae), in Brazil under current and future climate change scenarios. A mapping method of species distribution based on the geographic information system (GIS) was used. The maps were constructed taking into account ranges of favorability for temperature and relative humidity. Favorability levels were defined considering the available information on pest biology and population dynamics. To characterize the current climatic conditions, information was referenced to the climate normal from 1961 to 1990. Future scenarios for the models were the A2 and B1 gas emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, focusing on the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The constructed maps showed that, for the reference period, Brazil presents extensive areas with favorable or very favorable conditions for the establishment of red palm mite populations. An increasing favorability was observed for future scenarios when compared with the reference period, indicating that the pest impact will worsen if it is already widely spread and causing damage in the country. Under current and future climate scenarios, most of the favorable and very favorable areas for red palm mite are in northeastern Brazil.

scholarly journals Climate Change Scenarios and Their Implications on the Energy Performance of Hellenic Non-Residential Buildings

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 13005
Author(s):  
Kalliopi G. Droutsa ◽  
Simon Kontoyiannidis ◽  
Constantinos A. Balaras ◽  
Athanassios A. Argiriou ◽  
Elena G. Dascalaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
The Future

It is important to understand how the climate is changing in order to prepare for the future, adapt if necessary, and, most importantly, take proper precautionary measures to alleviate major negative impacts. This work investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the anticipated energy performance of the existing Hellenic building stock until the end of the century. The assessment considers average climatic projections for two future time periods, one for the near and one for the distant future, following two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The first one is a baseline scenario (RCP8.5) representing the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The second is an intermediate stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), assuming the imposition of conservative emissions mitigation policies. The future climate data are generated for 62 cities throughout Greece. As a case study, the work focuses on Hellenic non-residential (NR) whole buildings, analyzing available data collected during about 2500 energy audits of real NR buildings. The available data are used to assess the buildings’ heating and cooling demand and energy use. The annual average air temperature for Greece in 2050 is projected to increase by 1.5 K for the RCP4.5 scenario and by 1.9 K for the RCP8.5 scenario. In 2090, the increase is estimated to reach 1.7 K and 4.2 K, respectively. Accordingly, if the existing NR buildings are not renovated, the average heating energy use is expected to decrease by 22–26% in 2050 and by 23–52% in 2090. On the other hand, the average cooling energy use is expected to increase by 24–30% in 2050 and by 28–66% in 2090.

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