scholarly journals Condorcet Loser in 2016: Apparently Trump; Condorcet Winner: Not Clinton?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110094
Author(s):  
Richard F. Potthoff ◽  
Michael C. Munger

Using thermometer score data from the ANES, we show that while there may have been no clear-cut Condorcet winner among the 2016 US presidential candidates, there appears to have been a Condorcet loser: Donald Trump. Thus the surprise is that the electorate preferred not only Hillary Clinton, but also the two “minor” candidates, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, to Trump. Another surprise is that Johnson may have been the Condorcet winner. A minimal normative standard for evaluating voting systems is advanced, privileging those systems that select Condorcet winners if one exists, and critiquing systems that allow the selection of Condorcet losers. A variety of voting mechanisms are evaluated using the 2016 thermometer scores: Condorcet voting, plurality, Borda, (single winner) Hare, Coombs, range voting, and approval voting. We conclude that the essential problem with the existing voting procedure—Electoral College runoff of primary winners of two major parties—is that it (demonstrably) allows the selection of a Condorcet loser.

Author(s):  
Yochai Benkler ◽  
Robert Faris ◽  
Hal Roberts

This chapter presents a model of the interaction of media outlets, politicians, and the public with an emphasis on the tension between truth-seeking and narratives that confirm partisan identities. This model is used to describe the emergence and mechanics of an insular media ecosystem and how two fundamentally different media ecosystems can coexist. In one, false narratives that reinforce partisan identity not only flourish, but crowd-out true narratives even when these are presented by leading insiders. In the other, false narratives are tested, confronted, and contained by diverse outlets and actors operating in a truth-oriented norms dynamic. Two case studies are analyzed: the first focuses on false reporting on a selection of television networks; the second looks at parallel but politically divergent false rumors—an allegation that Donald Trump raped a 13-yearold and allegations tying Hillary Clinton to pedophilia—and tracks the amplification and resistance these stories faced.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-113
Author(s):  
Misyi Gusthini ◽  
Cece Sobarna ◽  
Rosaria Mita Amalia

This research was aimed at analyzing the speeches of Donald Trump and of Hillary Clinton in the USA Presidential candidates’ debates as instruments of power. The data is a presidential final debate video of Trump and Clinton made in September 2016 which has been converted into a transcript. The data analyzing technique is divided into three steps: 1) describing the context, 2) analyzing the illocutionary acts, and 3) analyzing the power dimensions. The results of this research show that the speakers use the speech act as an instrument of power with classifications of representative, commissive and expressive. In this regard, the researchers found that the speakers demonstrated their power to try to convince the voters in their society to trust them to be the president. The research results also showed that the usage of speech in debate as an instrument of power can influence the voters especially on Election Day.


2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 144-160
Author(s):  
Jan Zilinsky ◽  
Cristian Vaccari ◽  
Jonathan Nagler ◽  
Joshua A. Tucker

Michael Jordan supposedly justified his decision to stay out of politics by noting that Republicans buy sneakers too. In the social media era, the name of the game for celebrities is engagement with fans. So why then do celebrities risk talking about politics on social media, which is likely to antagonize a portion of their fan base? With this question in mind, we analyze approximately 220,000 tweets from 83 celebrities who chose to endorse a presidential candidate in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign to assess whether there is a cost—defined in terms of engagement on Twitter—for celebrities who discuss presidential candidates. We also examine whether celebrities behave similarly to other campaign surrogates in being more likely to take on the “attack dog” role by going negative more often than going positive. More specifically, we document how often celebrities of distinct political preferences tweet about Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton, and we show that followers of opinionated celebrities do not withhold engagement when entertainers become politically mobilized and do indeed often go negative. Interestingly, in some cases political content from celebrities actually turns out to be more popular than typical lifestyle tweets.


2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 1215-1230
Author(s):  
Mediha Örkcü ◽  
Volkan Soner Özsoy ◽  
H. Hasan Örkcü

The ranking of the decision making units (DMUs) is an essential problem in data envelopment analysis (DEA). Numerous approaches have been proposed for fully ranking of units. Majority of these methods consider DMUs with optimistic approach, whereas their weaknesses are ignored. In this study, for fully ranking of the units, a modified optimistic–pessimistic approach, which is based on game cross efficiency idea is proposed. The proposed game like iterative optimistic-pessimistic DEA procedure calculates the efficiency scores according to weaknesses and strengths of units and is based on non-cooperative game. This study extends the optimistic-pessimistic DEA approach to obtain robust rank values for DMUs. The proposed approach yields Nash equilibrium solution, thus overcomes the problem of non-uniqueness of the DEA optimal weights that can possibly reduce the usefulness of cross efficiency. Finally, in order to verify the validity of the proposed model and to show the practicability of algorithm, we apply a real-world example for selection of industrial R&D projects. The proposed model can increase the discriminating power of DMUs and can fully rank the DMUs.


2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (10) ◽  
pp. 13722-13723
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Lisowski

In my PhD project I study the algorithmic aspects of strategic behaviour in collective decision making, with the special focus on voting mechanisms. I investigate two manners of manipulation: (1) strategic selection of candidates from groups of potential representatives and (2) influence on voters located in a social network.


October ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 155 ◽  
pp. 151-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Chan

Paul Chan's speech, first delivered on the occasion of Engage More Now! A Symposium on Artists, Museums, and Publics at the Hammer Museum in Los Angeles (November 2015), proposes that artistic experiences be understood as forms that vividly emblematizes the relationship between cunning and reasoning. It considers the ways in which this relationship echoes within the broadest arenas of social life and how such an outlook could upend what have become standard and increasingly tedious debates about aesthetics, politics, and social engagement in art. Chan also delivers a brief attack against the xenophobic and racist 2016 G.O.P presidential candidates, in particular Donald Trump.


1957 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. R. Whitehead ◽  
Elizabeth J. Bush

The relationships between nineteen strains ofStr. cremorisand nineteen phage races were investigated. It was found that in addition to clear-cut lytic reactions there were other actions between some phage races and bacterial strains whereby in some cases a phage could show adaptation to a strain and become changed in host range, and in other cases could inhibit growth of a strain without any phage multiplication.There is some evidence to indicate that bacterial strains and phage races fall into family groups within which most of the phages act in one way or another on most of the strains. The suggestion is made that the strains and races in a group may have originated from a parent bacterial strain and parent phage race.The selection of strains ofStr. cremorisfor use as cheese starters is discussed in the light of the findings reported in the present paper. The diffculty of isolating a large number of strains unrelated in every respect is indicated.


2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 856-887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela S. Shockley-Zalabak ◽  
Sherwyn P. Morreale ◽  
Carmen Stavrositu

This study explored voters’ perceptions of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump regarding their general trust in the two 2016 presidential candidates, voters’ demographics, five underlying drivers of trust, and important campaign issues. The study also examined how perceptions of trust on issues were evidenced in the popular vote and in key swing states and the Electoral College. The study used two online census-representative surveys to examine registered voters’ perceptions: one survey of 1,500 respondents conducted immediately before the first presidential debate (September 7-15, 2016) and a second survey of a different sample of 1,500 immediately after the third debate (October 20-31), 2016. Analysis of the results confirmed relatively low-trust levels for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and an electorate divided demographically about their trust in the two candidates. The five trust drivers yielded statistically significant differences between the candidates. Clinton was evaluated as more competent, concerned, and reliable, and a person with whom participants identified. With the second survey, Trump statistically surpassed Clinton for openness and honesty. Regarding the three issues of most importance in the campaign, Clinton and Trump had equivalent trust evaluations for dealing with the U.S. economy/jobs, but Trump was more trusted regarding terrorism/national security and Clinton was more trusted regarding health care. The overall trust evaluations for Clinton, coupled with intentions to vote, contribute to understanding Clinton’s popular vote victory. However, the importance of terrorism/national security in swing states and Trump’s trust advantage on that issue contributes to understanding the Electoral College vote by comparison with the popular vote.


1932 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. Pandit ◽  
G. S. Wilson

1. Altogether 117 strains of Brucella, belonging to different types and isolated from different parts of the world, have been examined by the thermoagglutination, salt agglutination, acid agglutination, and specific serum agglutination tests.2. The results obtained by the thermo-agglutination and the serum agglutination tests are in close agreement; there is a fairly high degree of correlation between these tests and the acid agglutination test, and a rather lower correlation with the salt agglutination test.3. Generally speaking, a strain which is highly thermo-agglutinable is frequently agglutinated by salt, is usually agglutinated strongly by acid, and reacts to a paramelitensis, but not to an abortus serum.4. A strain which is moderately thermo-agglutinable is seldom agglutinated by salt, is frequently agglutinated by acid, and reacts either with an abortus or a paramelitensis serum, or with both sera.5. A strain which is not thermo-agglutinable is not agglutinated by salt, seldom reacts markedly to acid agglutination, and is generally agglutinated by an abortus, but not by a paramelitensis serum.6. There remain, however, a certain number of strains, particularly of the porcine and bovine abortus types which, though non-thermo-agglutinable, inagglutinable by salt, and reacting only with an abortus serum, yet show some degree of acid agglutination.7. Of the twelve porcine strains examined only one strain was strongly thermo-agglutinable; of the forty-seven bovine strains only two were strongly thermo-agglutinable, a further two showing a milder degree of thermoagglutinability; of the forty-seven melitensis strains eight were strongly, and thirteen were moderately thermo-agglutinable; while of the eleven paramelitensis strains ten were strongly thermo-agglutinable.8. These results are taken to indicate, in accordance with the suggestion made by certain previous workers, that those strains which are non-thermoagglutinable, are not agglutinated by salt, and are agglutinated by an abortus but not by a paramelitensis serum, represent the smooth form, while those strains which are strongly thermo-agglutinable, are frequently agglutinated by salt, and are agglutinated by a paramelitensis but not by an abortus serum, represent the rough form.9. If this interpretation is correct it will be noticed that the great majority of the porcine and bovine strains examined were of the smooth type, that nearly half the melitensis strains were partially or completely rough, while all but one of the paramelitensis strains were rough.10. Whether melitensis strains have a greater tendency than abortus strains to undergo the smooth to rough transformation it is difficult to say with certainty, but the reports in the literature and the observations in the present paper render this probable.11. By serial passage through broth at 5-day intervals, it is possible to transform smooth strains of all three types into the rough form. This transformation appears to occur more readily and to proceed further in a given time with melitensis than with abortus strains; but since only three strains of each type were examined, the results may have been determined as much by chance selection of strains as by any greater inherent tendency of the strains of the melitensis type to undergo variation.12. It is clear that none of the tests employed suffices to differentiate individual strains of abortus and melitensis. The thermo-agglutination test and the agglutination test with specific smooth and rough sera do, however, enable a differentiation to be made between smooth and rough strains of all types.13. In the present paper no attempt has been made to distinguish abortus and melitensis strains by specific agglutination and absorption tests. The general failure of workers hitherto to obtain any clear-cut serological distinction between these types may possibly be due to the fact that many of the strains with which they worked were either partially or completely rough. Since the rough antigen seems to be more or less alike in strains of all types, it is clear that its presence would tend to obscure any difference that might exist between the smooth antigens of the different types. If such a difference does exist it is probable that it will be elicited only by a comparison of absolutely smooth strains.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon Green ◽  
David Lazer ◽  
Matthew Baum ◽  
Adina Gitomer ◽  
Alexi Quintana ◽  
...  

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated economic fallout is the defining issue of the 2020 presidential election. Over 226,000 people in the United States have died from the disease as of this writing, and the daily lives of essentially everyone in the country have been disrupted in some way. It is unsurprising, then, that citizens consistently rated the pandemic as the most important problem facing the country throughout the summer (our team plans to publish a deeper dive into the issues voters see as most important later this week on covidstates.org).Moreover, the major party presidential candidates have taken markedly different stances regarding the threat that the pandemic poses, and how to best address it through changes to personal behaviors and public policy. President Trump has generally downplayed the threat posed by the virus by encouraging the resumption of activities from in-person public school to major sporting events, repeatedly claiming that the virus will eventually go away on its own, and continuing to hold campaign rallies (even while he himself was at risk of infecting others with the virus). By contrast, Joe Biden has expressed skepticism that the country is ready to return to normal, endorsed more direct government intervention to mitigate the spread of the disease, and adopted a more socially-distant campaign in general.While the pandemic has certainly commanded a plurality of attention during this campaign season, it remains unclear how it will influence the election’s outcome. Levels of concern regarding the pandemic and support for pandemic-related public policy measures are sharply divided along partisan lines, which is likely at least in part due to the polarized messages communicated by partisan leaders regarding the severity of COVID-19. And while economic downturns of the scale we are currently experiencing would normally predict serious electoral problems for an incumbent president, the unusual nature of this recession − precipitated by deliberate changes to the domestic economy, with the goal of slowing the spread of a deadly disease − may make voters reluctant to blame President Trump for the poor economic conditions.In this report, we provide preliminary evidence regarding one aspect of the relationship between the ongoing pandemic and the 2020 election. Specifically, we ask about the degree to which vote choice is associated with attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic, and whether the pandemic may be making voters who would otherwise be likely to support Donald Trump for re-election reluctant to do so. Throughout, our analysis is restricted to likely participants in the two-party contest this November − that is, respondents who say they are registered to vote, are very likely to vote in the 2020 election or have already voted, and are supporting Joe Biden, Donald Trump, or are undecided.


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