National and sub-national patterns of mortality from stroke in the Iranian population (1990–2015): Complementary results from the NASBOD study

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 132-148
Author(s):  
Shirin Djalalinia ◽  
Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam ◽  
Nazila Rezaei ◽  
Negar Rezaei ◽  
Anita Mansouri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Wealth Index ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Iranian Population ◽  
Stroke Mortality ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Background Iran lacks a population level comprehensive assessment of stroke epidemiology. Using data from the NASBOD Study, we estimated the mortality of stroke among the Iranian population from 1990 to 2015. Methods Data were collected from all the available sources including the national death registration system and two major cemeteries. After addressing incompleteness of child and adult death data and by using mixed effect model, spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression, levels and trends of child and adult mortality were estimated. By considering cause fraction to these estimates; cause specific mortality was estimated. In these process wealth index, urbanization, and years of schooling were used as covariates. Results In 2015, the age-standardized stroke mortality rate due was 47.76 (95% UI: 34.68–65.03) for males and 40.16 (30.38–5 2.72) for females, per 100,000 population. Stroke occurrence for both ischemic and non-ischemic strokes showed decreasing trends in both sexes after 2001–2002, at national and sub-national levels. The highest and lowest mortality rates between provinces ranged from 52.11 (40.3–66.66) to 24.47 (18.71–31.79) in men and from 65.51 (47.13–89.41) to 30.43 (21.95–41.82) in women per 100,000 population. Conclusion Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality are falling, in the past three decades, the absolute number of people who have had a stroke has increased. Stroke mortality remains high in Iran.

scholarly journals Trend of Appendicitis Mortality at National and Provincial Levels in Iran from 1990 to 2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 302-311
Author(s):  
Seyed Mohammad Piri ◽  
Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam ◽  
Zahra Ghodsi ◽  
Moein Yoosefi ◽  
Nazila Rezaei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Female Ratio ◽  
Icd 10 ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

Background: Appendicitis is one of the most preventable causes of death worldwide. We aimed to determine the trend of mortality due to appendicitis by sex and age at national and provincial levels in Iran during 26 years. Methods: Data were collected from Iran Death Registration System (DRS), cemetery databanks in Tehran and Esfahan, and the national population and housing censuses of Iran. The estimated population was determined for each group from 1990 to 2015 using a growth model. Incompleteness, misalignment, and misclassification in the DRS were addressed and multiple imputation methods were used for dealing with missing data. ICD-10 codes were converted to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) codes to allow comparison of the results with the GBD study. A Spatio-Temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression were used to predict the levels and trends in child and adult mortality rates, as well as cause fractions. Results: From 1990 to 2015, 6,982 deaths due to appendicitis were estimated in Iran. The age-standardized mortality rate per 100000 decreased from 0.72 (95% UI: 0.46–1.12) in 1990 to 0.11 (0.07–0.16) in 2015, a reduction of 84.72% over the course of 26 years. The male: female ratio was 1.13 during the 26 years of the study with an average annual percent change of -2.31% for women and -2.63% for men. Among men and women, appendicitis mortality rate had the highest magnitude of decline in the province of Zanjan and the lowest in the province of Hormozgan. In 1990, the lowest age-standardized appendicitis-related mortality was observed in both women and men in the province of Alborz and the highest mortality rate among men were observed in the province of Lorestan. In 2015, the lowest mortality rates in women and men were in the province of Tehran. The highest mortality rates in women were in Hormozgan, and in men were in Golestan province. Conclusion: The mortality rate due to appendicitis has declined at national and provincial levels in Iran. Understanding the causes of differences across provinces and the trend over years can be useful in priority setting for policy makers to inform preventive actions to further decrease mortality from appendicitis.

Trends of Diabetes Mortality in Iran at National and Sub-national levels from 1990 to 2015 and its association with socioeconomic factors

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niloofar Peykari ◽  
Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam ◽  
Nazila Rezaei ◽  
Anita Mansouri ◽  
Shohreh Naderimagham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Socioeconomic Factors ◽  
National Level ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Diabetes Mortality ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Difference ◽  
National Trends

Abstract Background Following global commitments to prevent and control non-communicable diseases, we sought to estimate national and sub-national trends in diabetes mortality in Iran and to assess its association with socioeconomic factors.Methods To assess the correlation between diabetes mortality and socioeconomic factors we used data obtained from the Death Registration System (DRS), the spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) levels and the diabetes mortality trends, which were estimated by sex, age and year at national and sub-national levels from 1990 to 2015.Results Between the years 1990 and 2015, the age-standardized diabetes mortality rate (per 100,000) increased from 3.40 (95% UI: 2.33 to 4.99) to 7.72 (95% UI: 5.51 to 10.78) in males and from 4.66 (95% UI: 3.23 to 6.76) to 10.38 (95% UI: 7.54 to 14.23) in females. In 1990, the difference between the highest age-standardized diabetes mortality rate among males was 3.88 times greater than the lowest (5.97 vs. 1.54) and in 2015 this difference was 3.96 times greater (14.65 vs. 3.70). This provincial difference was higher among females and was 5.13 times greater in 1990 (8.41 vs. 1.64) and 5.04 times greater in 2015 (19.87 vs. 3.94). The rate of diabetes mortality rose with urbanization, yet declined with an increase in wealth and years of schooling as the main socio-economic factors.Conclusion The rising trend of diabetes mortality rate at national level and the sub-national disparities associated with socioeconomic status in Iran warrant the implementation of specific interventions recommended by the ‘25 by 25’ goal.

scholarly journals Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to guide vaccination strategy in a city

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah C. Brüningk ◽  
Juliane Klatt ◽  
Madlen Stange ◽  
Alfredo Mari ◽  
Myrta Brunner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Modelling Analysis ◽  
City Population ◽  
Senior Population ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Socioeconomic Data ◽  
The City

Transmission chains within cities provide an important contribution to case burden and economic impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and should be a major focus for preventive measures to achieve containment. Here, at very high spatio-temporal resolution, we analysed determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a medium-sized European city. We combined detailed epidemiological, mobility, and socioeconomic data-sets with whole genome sequencing during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave. Both phylogenetic clustering and compartmental modelling analysis were performed based on the dominating viral variant (B.1-C15324T; 60% of all cases). Here we show that transmissions on the city population level are driven by the socioeconomically weaker and highly mobile groups. Simulated vaccination scenarios showed that vaccination of a third of the population at 90% efficacy prioritising the latter groups would induce a stronger preventive effect compared to vaccinating exclusively senior population groups first. Our analysis accounts for both social interaction and mobility on the basis of molecularly related cases, thereby providing high confidence estimates of the underlying epidemic dynamics that may readily be translatable to other municipal areas.

scholarly journals Caste, religion and regional differentials in life expectancy at birth in India: cross-sectional estimates from recent National Family Health Survey

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. e035392
Author(s):  
Meena Kumari ◽  
Sanjay K Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Survey ◽  
Family Health ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
National Family Health Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
National Family

ObjectiveThough estimates of longevity are available by states, age, sex and place of residence in India, disaggregated estimates by social and economic groups are limited. This study estimates the life expectancy at birth and premature mortality by caste, religion and regions of India.DesignThis study primarily used cross-sectional data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015–2016 and the Sample Registration System (SRS), 2011–2015. The NFHS-4 is the largest ever demographic and health survey covering 601 509 households and 811 808 individuals across all states and union territories in India.MeasuresThe abridged life table is constructed to estimate the life expectancy at birth, adult mortality (45q15) and premature mortality (70q0) by caste, religion and region.ResultsLife expectancy at birth was estimated at 63.1 years (95% CI 62.60 -63.64) for scheduled castes (SC), 64.0 years (95% CI 63.25 - 64.88) for scheduled tribes (ST), 65.1 years (95% CI 64.69 - 65.42) for other backward classes (OBC) and 68.0 years (95% CI 67.44 - 68.45) for others. The life expectancy at birth was higher among o Christians 68.1 years (95% CI 66.44 - 69.60) than Muslims 66.0 years (95% CI 65.29 - 66.54) and Hindus 65.0 years (95% CI 64.74 -65.22). Life expectancy at birth was higher among females than among males across social groups in India. Premature mortality was higher among SC (0.382), followed by ST (0.381), OBC (0.344) and others (0.301). The regional variation in life expectancy by age and sex is large.ConclusionIn India, social and religious differentials in life expectancy by sex are modest and need to be investigated among poor and rich within these groups. Premature mortality and adult mortality are also high across social and religious groups.

scholarly journals Behavioural valuation of landscapes using movement data

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1781) ◽  
pp. 20180046 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Wittemyer ◽  
Joseph M. Northrup ◽  
Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau
Keyword(s):  
Animal Movement ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Economic Valuation ◽  
Movement Ecology ◽  
Optimization Theory ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Animal Behaviour ◽  
Tracking Data ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Wildlife tracking is one of the most frequently employed approaches to monitor and study wildlife populations. To date, the application of tracking data to applied objectives has focused largely on the intensity of use by an animal in a location or the type of habitat. While this has provided valuable insights and advanced spatial wildlife management, such interpretation of tracking data does not capture the complexity of spatio-temporal processes inherent to animal behaviour and represented in the movement path. Here, we discuss current and emerging approaches to estimate the behavioural value of spatial locations using movement data, focusing on the nexus of conservation behaviour and movement ecology that can amplify the application of animal tracking research to contemporary conservation challenges. We highlight the importance of applying behavioural ecological approaches to the analysis of tracking data and discuss the utility of comparative approaches, optimization theory and economic valuation to gain understanding of movement strategies and gauge population-level processes. First, we discuss innovations in the most fundamental movement-based valuation of landscapes, the intensity of use of a location, namely dissecting temporal dynamics in and means by which to weight the intensity of use. We then expand our discussion to three less common currencies for behavioural valuation of landscapes, namely the assessment of the functional (i.e. what an individual is doing at a location), structural (i.e. how a location relates to use of the broader landscape) and fitness (i.e. the return from using a location) value of a location. Strengthening the behavioural theoretical underpinnings of movement ecology research promises to provide a deeper, mechanistic understanding of animal movement that can lead to unprecedented insights into the interaction between landscapes and animal behaviour and advance the application of movement research to conservation challenges. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation’.

scholarly journals Association between body mass index (BMI) and hypertension in south Asian population: evidence from nationally-representative surveys

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fariha Binte Hossain ◽  
Gourab Adhikary ◽  
Ariful Bari Chowdhury ◽  
Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon
Keyword(s):  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Asian Population ◽  
Wealth Index ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
National Committee ◽  
South Asian Population ◽  
Asian Populations

Abstract Background Although there has been a well-established association between overweight-obesity and hypertension, whether such associations are heterogeneous for South Asian populations, or for different socioeconomic groups is not well-known. We explored the associations of overweight and obesity using South Asian cut-offs with hypertension, and also examined the relationships between body mass index (BMI) and hypertension in various socioeconomic subgroups. Methods We analysed the recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, with a total of 821,040 men and women. Hypertension was defined by 2017 ACC/AHA cut-offs and by Joint National Committee 7 (JNC7) cut-offs for measured blood pressure and overweight and obesity were defined by measured height and weight. We used multiple logistic regressions to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of hypertension for overweight and obesity as well as for each 5-unit increase in BMI. Results The prevalence of hypertension using JNC7 cut-offs among participants increased by age in all three countries. The prevalence ranged from 17.4% in 35–44 years to 34.9% in ≥55 years in Bangladesh, from 4.6% in 18–24 years to 28.6% in 45–54 years in India, and from 3.8% in 18–24 years to 39.2% in ≥55 years in Nepal. Men were more likely to be hypertensive than women in India and Nepal, but not in Bangladesh. Overweight and obesity using both WHO and South Asian cut-offs were associated with higher odds of hypertension in all countries. For each 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI, the ORs for hypertension were 1.79 (95% CI: 1.65–1.93), 1.59 (95% CI: 1.58–1.61), and 2.03 (95% CI: 1.90–2.16) in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, respectively. The associations between BMI and hypertension were consistent across various subgroups defined by sex, age, urbanicity, educational attainment and household’s wealth index. Conclusions Our study shows that the association of BMI with hypertension is stronger for South Asian populations at even lower cut-offs points for overweight and obesity. Therefore, public health measures to reduce population-level reduction in BMI in all population groups would also help in lowering the burden of hypertension.

Population effects of shrimp trawl bycatch on Atlantic croaker

2000 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 2010-2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra L Diamond ◽  
Lindsay G Cowell ◽  
Larry B Crowder
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Atlantic Croaker ◽  
First Year ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Micropogonias Undulatus ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Juvenile Mortality ◽  
Shrimp Trawl

We used stage-within-age based matrix models of Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in the Gulf of Mexico and the South and Mid-Atlantic bights to explore the population-level impacts of shrimp trawl bycatch on estuarine-dependent fishes and to investigate tradeoffs between directed adult fisheries and bycatch mortality. The Gulf model reflected a rapidly declining population, while the Atlantic population showed a modest decline. Elasticity analyses indicated that both populations were more sensitive to the summed survival of adults than first-year survival, particularly in the Gulf. Contrary to our expectations, bycatch mortality on late juveniles was not the most important factor affecting either population of Atlantic croaker, and this result was robust to uncertainty in both adult and late juvenile mortality estimates. Both populations were most sensitive to ocean larva mortality, followed by mortality of estuary larvae and adults in the Gulf and of early juveniles and adults in the Atlantic. Nonetheless, bycatch mortality did have a large negative impact on population growth rates, and reducing late juvenile or adult mortality by about 35% in the Gulf or 5% in the Atlantic should reverse population declines. Bycatch reduction devices currently in use can achieve these desired reductions.

Prediction of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms Using Sparse Gaussian Process Regression

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Ijaz ◽  
J. Choi ◽  
W. Lee ◽  
S. Baek
Keyword(s):  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Morphological Changes ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms ◽  
Aortic Aneurysms ◽  
Abdominal Aortic ◽  
Risk Of Rupture ◽  
Spatial Estimates ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Small Aneurysms

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms (AAA) is a form of vascular disease causing focal enlargement of abdominal aorta. It affects a large part of population and has up to 90% mortality rate. Since risks from open surgery or endovascular repair outweighs the risk of AAA rupture, surgical treatments are not recommended with AAA less than 5.5cm in diameter. Recent clinical recommendations suggest that people with small aneurysms should be examined 3∼36 months depending on size to get information about morphological changes. While advances in biomechanics provide state-of-the-art spatial estimates of stress distributions of AAA, there are still limitations in modeling its time evolution. Thus, there is no biomechanical framework to utilize such information from a series of medical images that would aid physicians in detecting small aneurysms with high risk of rupture. For the present study, we use series of CT images of small AAAs taken at different times to model and predict the spatio-temporal evolution of AAA. This is achieved using sparse local Gaussian process regression.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document