Trend of Appendicitis Mortality at National and Provincial Levels in Iran from 1990 to 2015

Background: Appendicitis is one of the most preventable causes of death worldwide. We aimed to determine the trend of mortality due to appendicitis by sex and age at national and provincial levels in Iran during 26 years. Methods: Data were collected from Iran Death Registration System (DRS), cemetery databanks in Tehran and Esfahan, and the national population and housing censuses of Iran. The estimated population was determined for each group from 1990 to 2015 using a growth model. Incompleteness, misalignment, and misclassification in the DRS were addressed and multiple imputation methods were used for dealing with missing data. ICD-10 codes were converted to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) codes to allow comparison of the results with the GBD study. A Spatio-Temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression were used to predict the levels and trends in child and adult mortality rates, as well as cause fractions. Results: From 1990 to 2015, 6,982 deaths due to appendicitis were estimated in Iran. The age-standardized mortality rate per 100000 decreased from 0.72 (95% UI: 0.46–1.12) in 1990 to 0.11 (0.07–0.16) in 2015, a reduction of 84.72% over the course of 26 years. The male: female ratio was 1.13 during the 26 years of the study with an average annual percent change of -2.31% for women and -2.63% for men. Among men and women, appendicitis mortality rate had the highest magnitude of decline in the province of Zanjan and the lowest in the province of Hormozgan. In 1990, the lowest age-standardized appendicitis-related mortality was observed in both women and men in the province of Alborz and the highest mortality rate among men were observed in the province of Lorestan. In 2015, the lowest mortality rates in women and men were in the province of Tehran. The highest mortality rates in women were in Hormozgan, and in men were in Golestan province. Conclusion: The mortality rate due to appendicitis has declined at national and provincial levels in Iran. Understanding the causes of differences across provinces and the trend over years can be useful in priority setting for policy makers to inform preventive actions to further decrease mortality from appendicitis.

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Trends of Diabetes Mortality in Iran at National and Sub-national levels from 1990 to 2015 and its association with socioeconomic factors

10.21203/rs.3.rs-26658/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Niloofar Peykari ◽

Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam ◽

Nazila Rezaei ◽

Anita Mansouri ◽

Shohreh Naderimagham ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Socioeconomic Factors ◽

National Level ◽

Gaussian Process Regression ◽

Mortality Trends ◽

Registration System ◽

Diabetes Mortality ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Difference ◽

National Trends

Abstract Background Following global commitments to prevent and control non-communicable diseases, we sought to estimate national and sub-national trends in diabetes mortality in Iran and to assess its association with socioeconomic factors.Methods To assess the correlation between diabetes mortality and socioeconomic factors we used data obtained from the Death Registration System (DRS), the spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) levels and the diabetes mortality trends, which were estimated by sex, age and year at national and sub-national levels from 1990 to 2015.Results Between the years 1990 and 2015, the age-standardized diabetes mortality rate (per 100,000) increased from 3.40 (95% UI: 2.33 to 4.99) to 7.72 (95% UI: 5.51 to 10.78) in males and from 4.66 (95% UI: 3.23 to 6.76) to 10.38 (95% UI: 7.54 to 14.23) in females. In 1990, the difference between the highest age-standardized diabetes mortality rate among males was 3.88 times greater than the lowest (5.97 vs. 1.54) and in 2015 this difference was 3.96 times greater (14.65 vs. 3.70). This provincial difference was higher among females and was 5.13 times greater in 1990 (8.41 vs. 1.64) and 5.04 times greater in 2015 (19.87 vs. 3.94). The rate of diabetes mortality rose with urbanization, yet declined with an increase in wealth and years of schooling as the main socio-economic factors.Conclusion The rising trend of diabetes mortality rate at national level and the sub-national disparities associated with socioeconomic status in Iran warrant the implementation of specific interventions recommended by the ‘25 by 25’ goal.

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Deaths from Carbon monoxide poisoning in Iran between 2011 and 2018- An ecological study

10.21203/rs.2.22264/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yousef Alimohamadi ◽

Danial Rahimi ◽

Ahmad Mehri

Keyword(s):

Carbon Monoxide ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

General Education ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Carbon Monoxide Poisoning ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Co Poisoning ◽

Female Ratio ◽

Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background: Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, as one of the lethal poisoning, is responsible for a large percentage of poisonings and accidental deaths. Since the investigation of the mortality and the distribution of CO poisoning deaths in Iranian provinces is still unknown and no study has investigated so far, this study was conducted to determine the trend of mortality rate changes due to CO poisoning by Spatio-temporal analysis in Iran from 2011 to 2018. Methods: An ecological study was conducted based on data from the reports of at the National Center for Statistics of Iran for eight years from 21 March 2011 to 21 March 2018. The number of deaths due to CO poisoning and the annual mortality rates of CO poisoning per 100,000 population were calculated. The Spatio-temporal analysis used to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of deaths.Results: A total of 6078 deaths were reported due to CO poisoning that 4497 death were male (74%) and 1596 were female (26%) from 2011 to 2018. In both sexes, the mortality rate due to CO poisoning was 1.26 from 2011 to 0.91 in 2018. According to the results, the overall male-to-female ratio was 2.8. The mortality rate due to CO Poisoning had a decreasing trend. However, this trend did not have a linear trend (p=0.37). Our results showed that most of the deaths due to CO poisoning are higher in the northern and western provinces of Iran.Conclusion: This study is one of the first studies to compare the spatial and temporal mortality rates due to CO poisoning in Iran. Paying attention to general education about the principles of safety in the installation of heaters and the use of the gas networks, continuous and accurate monitoring of the installation and operation of CO-producing, and the use of sensitive alarms can reduce mortality and morbidity due to CO poisoning.

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Spatio-temporal analysis of Deaths from carbon monoxide poisoning in Iran between 2011 and 2018- An ecological study

10.21203/rs.2.22264/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yousef Alimohamadi ◽

Danial Rahimi ◽

Ahmad Mehri

Keyword(s):

Carbon Monoxide ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

General Education ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Carbon Monoxide Poisoning ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Co Poisoning ◽

Female Ratio ◽

Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, as one of the lethal poisoning, is responsible for a large percentage of poisonings and accidental deaths. Since the investigation of the mortality and the distribution of CO poisoning deaths in Iranian provinces is still unknown and no study has investigated so far, this study was conducted to determine the trend of mortality rate changes due to CO poisoning by Spatio-temporal analysis in Iran from 2011 to 2018. Methods An ecological study was conducted based on data from the reports of at the National Center for Statistics of Iran for eight years from 21 March 2011 to 21 March 2018. The number of deaths due to CO poisoning and the annual mortality rates of CO poisoning per 100,000 population were calculated. The Spatio-temporal analysis used to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of deaths. Results A total of 6078 deaths were reported due to CO poisoning that 4497 death were male (74%) and 1596 were female (26%) from 2011 to 2018. In both sexes, the mortality rate due to CO poisoning was 1.26 from 2011 to 0.91 in 2018. According to the results, the overall male-to-female ratio was 2.8. The mortality rate due to CO Poisoning had a decreasing trend. However, this trend did not have a linear trend (p=0.37). Our results showed that most of the deaths due to CO poisoning are higher in the northern and western provinces of Iran. Conclusion This study is one of the first studies to compare the spatial and temporal mortality rates due to CO poisoning in Iran. Paying attention to general education about the principles of safety in the installation of heaters and the use of the gas networks, continuous and accurate monitoring of the installation and operation of CO-producing, and the use of sensitive alarms can reduce mortality and morbidity due to CO poisoning.

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Spatio-temporal Analysis of Deaths From Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Iran Between 2011 and 2018- An Ecological Study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-132660/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yousef Alimohamadi ◽

Danial Rahimi ◽

Delniya Ahmadi ◽

Ahmad Mehri

Keyword(s):

Carbon Monoxide ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

General Education ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Carbon Monoxide Poisoning ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Co Poisoning ◽

Female Ratio ◽

Spatio Temporal

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National and sub-national patterns of mortality from stroke in the Iranian population (1990–2015): Complementary results from the NASBOD study

International Journal of Stroke ◽

10.1177/1747493018799974 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 132-148

Author(s):

Shirin Djalalinia ◽

Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam ◽

Nazila Rezaei ◽

Negar Rezaei ◽

Anita Mansouri ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gaussian Process Regression ◽

Wealth Index ◽

Population Level ◽

Absolute Number ◽

Adult Mortality ◽

Iranian Population ◽

Stroke Mortality ◽

Mixed Effect ◽

Registration System ◽

Spatio Temporal

Background Iran lacks a population level comprehensive assessment of stroke epidemiology. Using data from the NASBOD Study, we estimated the mortality of stroke among the Iranian population from 1990 to 2015. Methods Data were collected from all the available sources including the national death registration system and two major cemeteries. After addressing incompleteness of child and adult death data and by using mixed effect model, spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression, levels and trends of child and adult mortality were estimated. By considering cause fraction to these estimates; cause specific mortality was estimated. In these process wealth index, urbanization, and years of schooling were used as covariates. Results In 2015, the age-standardized stroke mortality rate due was 47.76 (95% UI: 34.68–65.03) for males and 40.16 (30.38–5 2.72) for females, per 100,000 population. Stroke occurrence for both ischemic and non-ischemic strokes showed decreasing trends in both sexes after 2001–2002, at national and sub-national levels. The highest and lowest mortality rates between provinces ranged from 52.11 (40.3–66.66) to 24.47 (18.71–31.79) in men and from 65.51 (47.13–89.41) to 30.43 (21.95–41.82) in women per 100,000 population. Conclusion Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality are falling, in the past three decades, the absolute number of people who have had a stroke has increased. Stroke mortality remains high in Iran.

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The level and trend of road traffic injuries attributable mortality rate in Iran, 1990–2015: a story of successful regulations and a roadmap to design future policies

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-021-11721-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mehran Shams ◽

Farnam Mohebi ◽

Kimiya Gohari ◽

Masoud Masinaei ◽

Bahram Mohajer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Road Traffic ◽

National Level ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Road User ◽

Attributable Mortality ◽

Older Individuals ◽

Registration System ◽

Helmet Use ◽

Road Traffic Injuries

Abstract Background Road-Traffic-Injuries (RTIs) are predicted to rise up to the fifth leading cause of worldwide death by 2030 and Iran has the third highest RTIs mortality among higher-middle income countries. Although the high mortality of RTI in Iran is a warning, it provides the opportunity to indirectly assess the implemented RTI-related regulations’ effectiveness via high-resolution relevant statistics and, hence, Iran could serve as a guide for countries with similar context. In order to do so, we utilized this study to report the time and spatial trends of RTIs-related mortality in different age and sex groups and road user classes in Iran. Methods Based on the national death-registration-system (DRS), cemeteries data, and the demographic characteristics, and after addressing incompleteness, we estimated mortality rates using spatiotemporal and Gaussian process regression models. We assessed Pearson seatbelt and helmet use and RTIs-attributable Age-Standardized-Morality-Rate (ASMR) associations. We also predicted RTIs-death-numbers, 2012–2020, by fitting a Generalized Additive Model to assess the status of achieving relevant sustainable development goal (SDG), namely reducing the number of RTIs-related deaths by half. Results Overall RTIs-attributable death and ASMR at the national level increased from 12.64 [95% UI, 9.52–16.86] to 29.1 [22.76–37.14] per 100,000 people in the time period of 1990–2015. The trend consisted of an increasing segment in 1990–2003 followed by a decreasing part till 2015. The highest percentage of death belonged to the three-or-more-wheels motorized vehicles. Pedestrian injuries percentage increased significantly and the highest mortality rate occurred in 85 years and older individuals. Low prevalence of seatbelt and helmet use were observed in provinces with higher than the median ASMR due to the relevant cause of each. RTIs-attributable death number is expected to reduce by 15.99% till 2020 which is lower than the established SDG goal. Conclusions Despite the observed substantial moderation in the RTI-ASMR, Iran is till among the leading countries in terms of the highest mortality rates in the world. The enforced regulations including speed limitations (particularly for elder pedestrians) and mandatory use of seatbelt and helmet (for young adult and male drivers) had a considerable effect on ASMR, nevertheless, the RTI burden reduction needs to be sustained and enhanced.

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The Trend of Interpersonal Violence Mortality at National and Provincial Levels in Iran From 1990 to 2015

Journal of Interpersonal Violence ◽

10.1177/0886260519883869 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 088626051988386

Author(s):

Man Amanat ◽

Khatereh Naghdi ◽

Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam ◽

Naser Ahmadi ◽

Nazila Rezaei ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Interpersonal Violence ◽

National Level ◽

Health Concern ◽

Fars Province ◽

Physical And Mental Health ◽

Mortality Trends ◽

Registration System ◽

Icd 10 ◽

Standardized Mortality Rate

Interpersonal violence (IPV) is a major public health concern with a significant impact on physical and mental health. This study was designed to evaluate age–sex-specific IPV mortality trends and the assault mechanisms (firearm, sharp objects, and other means), at national and provincial levels, in Iran. We used the Iranian Death Registration System (DRS) and the population and housing censuses in this analysis. Spatio-temporal and Gaussian Process Regression methods were used to adjust for inconsistencies at the provincial level and to integrate data from various sources. After assessing their validity, all records were reclassified according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10). All ICD-10 codes were then mapped to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 coding. More than 700 individuals died due to IPV in 1990 and more than twice this number in 2015. The IPV mortality age-standardized rate, per 100,000, increased from 1.62 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI] = [0.96, 2.75]) in 1990 to 1.81 [1.15, 2.89] in 2015. Among females, the age-standardized mortality rate at national level per 100,000 due to IPV was 1.27 [0.66, 2.43] in 1990 and decreased to 1.08 [0.60, 1.96] in 2015. Among males, the age-standardized mortality rate was 1.96 [1.25, 3.09] in 1990 rising to 2.54 [1.70, 3.82] in 2015. Data from provinces revealed that during the period of our study, Hormozgan province had the largest increase of IPV among females, and Fars province had the largest increase of IPV among males. Conversely, the largest decrease was detected in West Azarbaijan and Qom provinces in females and males, respectively. This study showed a wide variation in the incidence and trends of IPV in Iran by age, sex, and location. The study has provided valuable information to reduce the burden of IPV in Iran and a means to monitor future progress through repeated analyses of the trends.

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Novel COVID-19 Mortality Rate Prediction (MRP) Model for India Using Regression Model With Optimized Hyperparameter

Journal of Cases on Information Technology ◽

10.4018/jcit.20211001.oa1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 23 (4) ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Dhamodharavadhani S. ◽

R. Rathipriya

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Regression Model ◽

Death Rate ◽

Historical Data ◽

Gaussian Process Regression ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Regression Method ◽

Rate Prediction ◽

Mortality Models ◽

The U.S

The main objective of this study is to estimate the future COVID-19 mortality rate for India using COVID-19 mortality rate models from different countries. Here, the regression method with the optimal hyperparameter is used to build these models. In the literature, numerous mortality models for infectious diseases have been proposed, most of which predict future mortality by extending one or more disease-related attributes or parameters. But most of these models predict mortality rates from historical data. In this paper, the Gaussian process regression model with the optimal hyperparameter is used to develop the COVID-19 mortality rate prediction (MRP) model. Five different MRP models have been built for the U.S., Italy, Germany, Japan, and India. The results show that Germany has the lowest death rate in 2000 plus COVID-19 confirmed cases. Therefore, if India follows the strategy pursued by Germany, India will control the COVID-19 mortality rate even in the increase of confirmed cases.

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MEDICAL AND STATISTICAL INDICATORS OF MORTALITY IN EMPLOYEES OF RUSSIAN STATE FIRE SERVICE (1996–2015)

Medico-Biological and Socio-Psychological Problems of Safety in Emergency Situations ◽

10.25016/2541-7487-2018-0-4-05-26 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 5-26 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

S. S. Aleksanin ◽

E. V. Bobrinev ◽

V. I. Evdokimov ◽

A. A. Kondashov ◽

N. A. Mukhina ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Fire Service ◽

The State ◽

Russian State ◽

Working Age ◽

Icd 10 ◽

External Causes ◽

Statistical Indicators

Relevance. Russia has high mortality rates in general and among the working-age population, with dominating effects of external causes.Intention– To study rates and structures of the medical-statistical indicators of mortality due to diseases and the effects of external causes in the employees of the State Fire Service of the EMERCOM of Russia over 20 years from 1996 to 2015.Methods.Annual population under study averaged (108.8 ± 6.2) thousand people, or about 80% of all the employees of the State Fire Service of Russia who had special military ranks. Operating staff comprised 53.4%, other employees – 46.6%. Mortality rates were calculated per 100 thousand employees of the State Fire Service of Russia. Data on the mortality of working-age men in Russia was obtained on the website of the Federal Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat) [http://www.gks.ru/]. The unification of accounting and analysis of indicators was achieved using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, the 10th revision (ICD-10). Results and Discussion. Mortality rate among employees of the State Fire Service of the EMERCOM of Russia in 1996–2015 was (116.9 ± 5.7) deaths per 100 thousand employees per year vs 11 times higher mortality rate among the working-age male population of Russia: (1063.9 ± 33.7) deaths per 100 thousand men (p < 0.001). The mean age of the deceased employees of the State Fire Service of Russia was (44.5 ± 0.3) years, with overall mean age (36.9 ± 1.6) years (p < 0.001). The leading causes of death among employees of the State Fire Service of Russia (from more to less significant) were injuries and other effects of external causes (ICD-10 chapter XIX), diseases of the circulatory system (chapter IX) and neoplasms (II), diseases of the digestive system (XI) and diseases of the respiratory system (X). Mortality rates from these causes per 100 thousand employees per year amounted to (63.3 ± 33.7), (32.6 ± 2.7), (7.1 ± 0.6), (5.3 ± 1.0) and (5.0 ± 0.9) deaths; in cause-of-death structure – 54.2, 27.9, 6.0, 4.5 and 4.3%, respectively. The mortality rate from suicide among working-age Russian men was 6.4 times higher than that of firefighters – (66.0 ± 4.1) and (10.3 ± 1.1) deaths per 100 thousand men, respectively. However, in the overall cause-of-death structure, this cause accounted for a larger share in employ ees of the Russian State Fire Service (6.2 vs 8.8%). Statistically significant difference (p < 0.05) was found when comparing occupational fatalities among the operating personnel of the State Fire Service of Russia and working population in Russia: (14.9 ±1.4) deaths per 100 thousand employees per year vs (11.6 ± 0.7) deaths per 100 thousand workers per year. Mortality rates of firefighters were calculated in the Federal districts and regions of Russia. For a number of causes of death in firefighters, there is a significant contribution of occupational factors, which require further research.Conclusion.There is a low alertness for identifying neoplasms and crisis conditions in firefighters. Focusing on the leading diseases, behavioral disorders, prevention of injuries, poisoning and other effects of external causes will improve health and reduce mortality of employees of the State Fire Service of Russia.Authors declare the absence of existing and potential conflicts of interest concerning the article publication.

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Abstract P096: Trends in Heart Disease Mortality Among Mississippi Adults Over a Three Decade Period, 1980 Through 2013

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.133.suppl_1.p096 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 133 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Vincent L. Mendy ◽

Rodolfo Vargas ◽

Lamees El-sadek ◽

Abigail Gamble

Keyword(s):

Heart Disease ◽

Cause Of Death ◽

International Classification Of Diseases ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Vital Statistics ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

Percent Change ◽

Classification Of Diseases ◽

Icd 10 ◽

Underlying Cause Of Death

Background: Heart disease (HD) mortality has declined in Mississippi over recent decades however it remains as the leading cause of death among Mississippians. Trends in Mississippi HD mortality have not been thoroughly explored. This study examined trends in HD mortality from 1980 through 2013 among Mississippi adults (≥ 25 years) and further assessed trends by race and sex. Methods and Results: Data from Mississippi Vital Statistics (1980 through 2013) were used to calculate age-specific HD mortality rates for Mississippi adults. Cases were identified using underlying cause of death codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10), including I00-I09, I11, I13, and I20-I51. Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percent change in HD mortality rates for the overall population and by race, sex, and race and sex. Overall, the age-adjusted HD mortality rates among Mississippi adults decreased by 36.5% between 1980 and 2013 with an average annual percent change of -1.60% (95% CI -2.0 to -1.3). During this period, HD mortality rates decreased annually on average by -1.30% (95% CI -1.98 to -0.69) for black adults; by -1.60% (95% CI -1.74 to -1.46) for white adults; by -1.30% (95% CI -1.5 to -1.1) for all females, and by -1.90% (95% -2.2 to -1.5) for all males. Conclusions: Between 1980 and 2013 a continual decrease in HD mortality among Mississippi adults was observed. Disparities in the magnitude of the decrease in HD mortality existed by race and sex.

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