Political mobilization and its impact on voter turnout: A survey experiment in Iraq

2021 ◽  
pp. 205789112110396
Author(s):  
Dai Yamao ◽  
Shingo Hamanaka
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Political Distrust ◽  
Post War

This article clarifies how political mobilization affects voter turnout in a post-conflict society by analyzing the Iraqi case using survey data. Voter turnout was high in post-war Iraq. However, the voter turnout in the fourth election, held in May 2018, declined by 20 percentage points from the previous one in 2014, mainly because of widespread political distrust due to corruption among political elites and their embezzlement of public funds, neglect of the people, and the breakdown of social services after the intensive operation against the so-called Islamic State (IS). Political mobilization during electoral campaigns usually encourages voters to go to polling stations. Notwithstanding, amid widespread political distrust in a post-conflict society, how does political mobilization affect voters’ behavior in elections? To answer this research question, we conducted a survey experiment during the 2018 electoral campaign to scrutinize the effects of political mobilization on voters in Iraq. Through quantitative analysis of the survey data, we demonstrated that voters are more likely to refrain from visiting polling stations if they are mobilized by political parties during a campaign. Thus, political mobilization discourages voters from participating in elections when there is extensive political distrust.

Rebuilding multi-ethnic communities in post-conflict nations: returnee assessment of municipal services in Bosnia and Herzegovina

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 165-181
Author(s):  
Sevinc Rende ◽  
Dorothy J. Rosenberg
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Community Composition ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Fragile States ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Residency Status ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
Post War

Local administrative units are crucial to the reconstruction of a sustainable multi-ethnic social consensus in fragile states. Using the delivery of public goods and social services in Bosnia and Herzegovina as our case study, we ask whether the level of heterogeneity in community composition has any effect on resident opinion of public services at the municipal level. We find that post-war residency status is not the only factor defining community-level heterogeneity and that evaluations of public services at the local level are not neutral to community composition.

Vote Overreporting and a Survey Experiment: The Case of the Taiwan National Elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (01) ◽  
pp. 1650001 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHUNG-LI WU ◽  
XIAOCHEN SU
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Social Desirability ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
Theoretical Examination ◽  
Control Question ◽  
The World ◽  
Memory Failure

The misreporting of voter turnout, prevalent in survey data across the world, has received comparatively little attention anywhere apart from in some western countries. This study evaluates the use of questions specifically designed to mitigate the level of vote overreporting for the 2012 national elections in Taiwan. After a theoretical examination of social desirability and memory failure, the two primary causes of misreporting, we present the results of a split-question experiment featuring two questions designed to mitigate overreporting. While the findings reveal that the experiment with changes to the questionnaire context was far from successful because of a low reported turnout for the control question, it is the case that, as hypothesized, reported voter turnout differs vastly among the different questions, with the question mitigating for social desirability resulting in higher figures than that for memory failure.

Building States to Build Peace? A Critical Analysis

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles T. Call
Keyword(s):  
Critical Analysis ◽  
State Capacity ◽  
International Peace ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Strong State ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Post War ◽  
External Actors ◽  
State Functions

Agencies throughout the development, humanitarian, political and defence fields have recently endorsed the centrality of state institutions in post-war peacebuilding. But how can external actors go about peacebuilding in a way that reinforces effective and legitimate states without doing harm? Drawing on an International Peace Institute project, this article calls into question the assumption that peacebuilding can be boiled down to building state institutions. The article argues that the process of building states can actually undermine peace, postulating five tensions between peacebuilding and statebuilding even as it asserts that strong state institutions remain crucial for consolidating peace. Identifying three crucial state functions for peacebuilding, the article emphasises the complex interrelationships among legitimacy, state capacity and security in post-conflict societies.

Gender Gaps in Electoral Turnout: Surveys versus Administrative Censuses

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992110195
Author(s):  
Paulo Cox ◽  
Mauricio Morales Quiroga
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Gender Gaps ◽  
Electoral Turnout ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Rule Out

Gender gaps in voter turnout are usually studied using opinion surveys rather than official census data. This is because administrative censuses usually do not disaggregate turnout according to voters’ sex. Without this official information, much of the research on gender gaps in electoral turnout relies on survey respondents’ self-reported behavior, either before or after an election. The decision to use survey data implies facing several potential drawbacks. Among them are the turnout overstatement bias and the attrition or nonresponse bias, both affecting the estimation of factors explaining turnout and any related statistical analysis. Furthermore, these biases may be correlated with covariates such as gender: men, more than women, may systematically overstate their electoral participation. We analyze turnout gender gaps in Chile, comparing national surveys with official administrative data, which in Chile are publicly available. Crucially, the latter includes the official record of sex, age, and the electoral behavior—whether the individual voted or not—for about 14 million registered individuals. Based on a series of statistical models, we find that analysis based on survey data is likely to rule out gender gaps in electoral participation. Carrying out the same exercises, but with official data, leads to the opposite conclusion, namely, that there is a sizable gender gap favoring women.

The Arizona Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 300-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine C. Sredl ◽  
Clifford J. Shultz ◽  
Ružica Brečić
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Community Members ◽  
War Economy ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Sustainable Peace ◽  
Divided Society ◽  
Marketing Systems ◽  
Post War

Through this longitudinal study of a historically significant, complex, conflicted and evolving macromarketing space, Bosnia’s Arizona Market, the authors reveal that marketing systems are not merely random artifacts of human behavior; rather, they are adaptive, purposeful, can be pernicious and/or provisioning, and ultimately—if they are to reflect our humanity—must be well integrated into other prosocial systems to affect the best possible outcomes for all stakeholders. By engaging with a marketing system in a post-conflict, divided society, we are better able to understand the genesis and evolution of markets and marketing systems; the relationships among war economy, peace accords, and the ways that post-war marketing systems create community, provide for community needs, and create new vulnerabilities for some community members. The authors conclude with a discussion of implications for sustainable peace and prosperity in Bosnia and in other post-conflict marketing systems, and suggestions for future research.

scholarly journals Limits and Possibilities of the United States Military in Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Stabilization

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alcir Santos Neto
Keyword(s):  
Nation Building ◽  
The United States ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Inspector General ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Post War ◽  
Military Engagement

This study probes the limits and possibilities of US military efforts to facilitate the transition from warfighting to nation-building. Most comparative studies conceive the complexity of this transition along a spectrum from conflict to humanitarian assistance to post-conflict stabilization. While the last two stages have often been interpreted as a coordinated act of civil-military ‘nation-building’; the spectrum, in fact, represents an ideal type simplification. At one level, outcomes depend on the players involved, including: sovereign nations, national militaries, international and regional institutions, UN peacekeepers, private security contractors, and non-governmental humanitarian providers, among others. On the other hand, because the number, types, and causes of case outcomes are highly diverse and contingent upon many possible factors (among them for example: political, economic, military, organizational, humanitarian, cultural, and religious), institutions like the US military face serious difficulties both planning and coordinating post-conflict scenarios. Assuming this complex backdrop, the present study offers a qualitative analysis of two recent US government reports by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) on US military engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq. In both cases, the US government sought to ‘nation-build’ by facilitating post-war stabilization and humanitarian assistance, detailing its genuine efforts to record both processes. While results indicate some limited successes in both cases, they also indicate a familiar pattern of uneven performance failures consistent with other cases internationally. The analysis concludes with recommendations for further research that may better control the contingencies of post-conflict management.

scholarly journals Examining the Role of Economic Actors in Post-war Reintegration Processes: Case of Sierra Leone.

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 158-167
Author(s):  
MaryAnne Iwara
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Planning Strategy ◽  
Social Contracts ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Aid Dependency ◽  
Post War ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
National Governments

This paper examines post-conflict peacebuilding activities in Sierra Leone by critically looking at the role of economic actors in the reintegration process of its post-war Disarmament Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) initiative. The civil war that lasted for 11 years in Sierra Leone, put doubts on the national governments ability to effectively provide both victims and perpetuators, the necessary protection and assistance needed to fully assume responsibilities within the communities. Because of this, poverty was further entrenched, thereby increasing the countries susceptibility to return to conflict. Though reintegration processes are continuous, integrative and involve exhaustive budgetary commitments, the process, in Sierra Leone was short-termed, not well coordinated and took time to begin delivering. With the United Nations, World Bank and the weak national government leading the process, financing was often insufficient or late, in combination with the lack of a coherent planning strategy; all these factors contributed to lapses in socio-economic profiling, skills and vocational training and spread disillusionment and resentment among ex-combatants and victims. Using content analysis, the paper argues that, post-war countries need active, equitable and profitable economic sectors if they are to graduate from conflict and from post-conflict aid-dependency. Moreover, as social contracts and corporate social responsibility to communities they govern and operate in, economic actors must create enabling environments and, generate jobs to support legitimate local capacities. The utility of this paper lies in the idea that for any post-conflict country to attain long-term social and economic development, reintegration programme design and activities, must holistically incorporate critical economic actors.  

Rejecting Ethnic Pandering in Urban Africa: A Survey Experiment on Voter Preferences in Nairobi, Kenya

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110405
Author(s):  
Hye-Sung Kim ◽  
Jeremy Horowitz
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Effective Strategy ◽  
Voter Preferences ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Urban Africa ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Vignette Experiment

Ethnic pandering, in which candidates promise to cater to the interests of coethnic voters, is presumed to be an effective strategy for increasing electoral support in Africa’s emerging multiethnic democracies. However, ethnic political mobilization may be disdained by citizens for its divisive and polarizing effects, particularly in urban areas. As a result, pandering may fall on deaf ears among Africa’s urban voters. This study examines how voters in Kenya’s capital city, Nairobi, respond to ethnic pandering using data from a vignette experiment conducted in 2015 and a replication study implemented in 2016. Results show that respondents are more supportive of candidates who make ethnically inclusive rather than targeted appeals, regardless of whether the candidate is identified as a coethnic. We propose that the results are driven by a broad distaste among urban voters for parochial politics, rather than by strategic calculations related to candidate viability.

Bosnian voices from the bottom of the well: Genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity and victims’ right to remedies

2021 ◽  
pp. 026975802110464
Author(s):  
Alma Begicevic
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Peace Treaty ◽  
Close Family Member ◽  
Cultural Rights ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Archival Documents ◽  
Post War ◽  
The One

Human rights advocates call for reparation as an important step to acknowledge and repair historical injustice and mass harms. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, victims of war continue to seek monetary reparation for non-pecuniary damages caused by genocide: murder, injury to human body and dignity, and harms inflicted upon a close family member. They seek legal remedies using national, foreign, and international human rights judicial venues. Drawing from qualitative, ethnographic research data and archival documents, the article examines legal claims and public discourse regarding reparation and makes a case for a reconceptualization of reparation by including victim voices. The article concludes that despite being absent from the post-conflict victims’ reparation programs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, monetary reparation has assumed a social valuation attribute. On the one hand, it is a victim’s call for retributive, legal conceptions of justice – that someone who escaped international and national criminal justice programs pays. On the other hand, it is a tool to draw attention to Bosnian victims’ present civil and political exclusions that came with the international post-conflict peace treaty. While the post-war reconstruction focused on international trials, democratization, restorative justice, and state building programs, it also restricted socio-economic and cultural rights by redefining the citizenship and dismantling the welfare state. Reparation is a debt owed to victims.

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