scholarly journals Characteristics and outcomes of patients with RET-fusion positive non-small lung cancer in real-world practice in the United States

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa M. Hess ◽  
Yimei Han ◽  
Yajun Emily Zhu ◽  
Naleen Raj Bhandari ◽  
Anthony Sireci
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Tumor Response ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Metastatic Nsclc ◽  
Baseline Covariates

Abstract Background Contradictory and limited data are available about the presentation and outcomes of patients with RET-fusion positive metastatic NSCLC as compared to patients without RET fusions. This observational study utilizing a linked electronic health records (EHR) database to genomics testing results was designed to compare characteristics, tumor response, progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) outcomes by RET fusion status among patients with metastatic NSCLC treated with standard therapies. Methods Adult patients with metastatic NSCLC with linked EHR and genomics data were eligible who received systemic anti-cancer therapy on or after January 1, 2011. Adjusted, using all available baseline covariates, and unadjusted analyses were conducted to compare tumor response, PFS and OS between patients with RET-fusion positive and RET-fusion negative disease as detected by next-generation sequencing. Tumor response outcomes were analysed using Fisher’s exact test, and time-to-event analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards model. Results There were 5807 eligible patients identified (RET+ cohort, N = 46; RET- cohort, N = 5761). Patients with RET fusions were younger, more likely to have non-squamous disease and be non-smokers and had better performance status (all p < 0.01). In unadjusted analyses, there were no significant differences in tumor response (p = 0.17) or PFS (p = 0.06) but OS was significantly different by RET status (hazard ratio, HR = 1.91, 95% CI:1.22–3.0, p = 0.005). There were no statistically significant differences by RET fusion status in adjusted analyses of either PFS or OS (PFS HR = 1.24, 95% CI:0.86–1.78, p = 0.25; OS HR = 1.52, 95% CI: 0.95–2.43, p = 0.08). Conclusions Patients with RET fusions have different baseline characteristics that contribute to favorable OS in unadjusted analysis. However, after adjusting for baseline covariates, there were no significant differences in either OS or PFS by RET status among patients treated with standard therapy prior to the availability of selective RET inhibitors.

Association of Surgical Resection, Disability, and Survival in Patients with Glioblastoma

2019 ◽  
Vol 80 (04) ◽  
pp. 262-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yahya Ahmadipour ◽  
Monika Kaur ◽  
Daniela Pierscianek ◽  
Oliver Gembruch ◽  
Marvin Darkwah Oppong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Karnofsky Performance Status ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Extent Of Resection ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Surgical Modality ◽  
Supratotal Resection

Objective Extent of resection (EOR) and Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) are at odds in glioblastoma (GBM) surgery, that is, the anticipated postoperative disability limits the EOR. This study analyzes the correlation of different surgical modalities with the resulting physical status and survival of patients with GBM. Methods A total of 565 patients with primary GBM were operated on in a single institution between 2006 and 2014. Possible surgical modalities comprised supratotal resection (SLR), gross total resection (GTR; ≥ 95% by volume), tumor debulking (TDB; ≤ 95% by volume), and stereotactic biopsy (SB). Pre- and postoperative KPS before and up to 4 weeks after surgery as well as overall survival (OS) rate were determined retrospectively. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results Median postoperative KPS was ≥ 70, irrespective of surgical modality. Mean OS was 12.5 months. Multivariate analysis revealed age ≥ 70 years (HR: 1.93), preoperative KPS < 70 (HR: 2.15), and unmethylation in MGMT promoter (HR: 1.27) as independent factors for worse OS. Regarding surgical modality, SB was associated with the worst survival (HR: 2.3) followed by TDB (HR: 1.36). SLR was inferior to GTR (HR: 1.27). Conclusion Higher EOR in patients with GBM does not seem inevitably correlated with increasing functional impairment, but better survival, provided there is a balanced preoperative indication. Nevertheless, SLR does not seem to be superior to GTR. Whenever possible, maximal safe resection should be considered in patients with GBM, even if an EOR ≥ 95% is not possible.

scholarly journals Incidence and Survival Changes in Patients with Esophageal Adenocarcinoma during 1984–2013

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Haiyu ◽  
Pei Xiaofeng ◽  
Mo Xiangqiong ◽  
Qiu Junlan ◽  
Zheng Xiaobin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Esophageal Adenocarcinoma ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Potential Risk Factors

Purpose. The morbidity of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has significantly increased in Western countries. We aimed to identify trends in incidence and survival in patients with EAC in the recent 30 years and then analyzed potential risk factors, including race, sex, age, and socioeconomic status (SES). Methods. All data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results or SEER database. Kaplan–Meier analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model were conducted to compare the differences in survival between variables, including sex, race, age, and SES, as well as to evaluate the association of these factors with prognosis. Results. A total of 16,474 patients with EAC were identified from 1984 to 2013 in the United States. Overall incidence increased every 10 years from 1.8 to 3.1 to 3.9 per 100. Overall survival gradually improved (p<0.0001), which was evident in male patients ((hazard ratio (HR) = 1.111; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.07, 1.15)); however, the 5-year survival rate remained low (20.1%). The Cox proportional hazards model identified old age, black ethnicity, and medium/high poverty as risk factors for EAC (HR = 1.018; 95% CI (1.017, 1.019; HR = 1.240, 95% CI (1.151,1.336), HR = 1.000, 95% CI (1.000, 1.000); respectively). Conclusions. The incidence of EAC in the United States increased over time. Survival advantage was observed in white patients and patients in the low-poverty group. Sex was an independent prognostic factor for EAC, but this finding has to be confirmed by further research.

Long-Term Survivors of Gastric Cancer: A California Population-Based Study

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (28) ◽  
pp. 3507-3515 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela L. Kunz ◽  
Matthew Gubens ◽  
George A. Fisher ◽  
James M. Ford ◽  
Daphne Y. Lichtensztajn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Gastroesophageal Junction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Intestinal Histology ◽  
Hospital Size

Purpose In the United States, gastric cancer is rapidly fatal with a 25% 5-year survival. Of the few patients who survive, little is known about their demographic, clinical, and tumor characteristics. Patients and Methods Data regarding all cases of gastric and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) adenocarcinoma diagnosed in California between 1988 and 2005 were obtained from the California Cancer Registry, a member of the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. A Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to understand the independent relationships of patient demographic, disease, and treatment factors with survival. Results We identified 47,647 patients diagnosed with gastric or GEJ cancer. Of those, only 9,325 (20%) survived at least 3 years. Variables associated with longer survival were localized stage (hazard ratio [HR], 0.20), surgery with diagnosis in 2002 or later (HR, 0.34), surgery with diagnosis in 2001 or before (0.37), regional stage (HR, 0.53), chemotherapy (HR, 0.56), intestinal histology (HR, 0.74), well- or moderately differentiated tumors (HR, 0.76), radiation (HR, 0.80), Asian/Pacific Islander race (HR, 0.81), treatment at an academic hospital (HR, 0.85), fundus/body/antrum location (HR, 0.90), highest socioeconomic status quintile (HR, 0.91), female sex (HR, 0.92), Hispanic race (HR, 0.92), and hospital size more than 150 beds (HR, 0.94). Kaplan-Meier curves showed longer median disease-specific survival (DSS) in patients with tumors originating in the fundus/body/antrum compared with esophagus/cardia (13.4 v 10.8 months). Intestinal histology had significantly longer median DSS (28.9 months) compared with other (11.0 months) or diffuse (10.1 months) histology. Conclusion Patients who survive gastric and GEJ cancer more than 3 years after diagnosis have demographic and pathologic characteristics distinct from those who do not survive.

scholarly journals Survival Analysis of COVID-19 on Democracy with Cox Proportional Hazards Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Deepika Dilip
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Survival Analysis ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Hazards Model

Abstract Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has struck us in many ways and we observed that China and South Korea found an effective measure to contain the virus. Conversely, the United States and the European countries are struggling to fight the virus. China is not considered a democracy and South Korea is less democratic than the United States. Therefore, we want to explore the association between the deaths of COVID-19 and democracy. Methods: We collected COVID-19 deaths data for each country from the Johns Hopkins University website and democracy indices of 2018 from the Economist Intelligence Unit website in May 2020. Then we conducted a survival analysis, regarding each country as a subject, with the Cox Proportional Hazards Model, adjusting for other selected variables. Result: The result showed that the association between democracy and deaths of COVID-19 was significant (P=0.04), adjusting for other covariates. Conclusion: In conclusion, less democratic governments performed better in containing the virus and controlling the number of deaths.

scholarly journals Use of the Living Kidney Donor Profile Index in the Canadian Kidney Transplant Recipient Population: A Validation Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 205435812090697
Author(s):  
Mohamed Shantier ◽  
Yanhong Li ◽  
Monika Ashwin ◽  
Olsegun Famure ◽  
Sunita K. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Validation Study ◽  
Graft Failure ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
External Validation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Living Kidney Donor ◽  
Hazards Model

Background: The Living Kidney Donor Profile Index (LKDPI) was derived in a cohort of kidney transplant recipients (KTR) from the United States to predict the risk of total graft failure. There are important differences in patient demographics, listing practices, access to transplantation, delivery of care, and posttransplant mortality in Canada as compared with the United States, and the generalizability of the LKDPI in the Canadian context is unknown. Objective: The purpose of this study was to externally validate the LKDPI in a large contemporary cohort of Canadian KTR. Design: Retrospective cohort validation study. Setting: Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Patients: A total of 645 adult (≥18 years old) living donor KTR between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2016 with follow-up until December 31, 2017 were included in the study. Measurements: The predictive performance of the LKDPI was evaluated. The outcome of interest was total graft failure, defined as the need for chronic dialysis, retransplantation, or death with graft function. Methods: The Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the relation between the LKDPI and total graft failure. The Cox proportional hazards model was also used for external validation and performance assessment of the model. Discrimination and calibration were used to assess model performance. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell’s C statistic and calibration was assessed graphically, comparing observed versus predicted probabilities of total graft failure. Results: A total of 645 living donor KTR were included in the study. The median LKDPI score was 13 (interquartile range [IQR] = 1.1, 29.9). Higher LKDPI scores were associated with an increased risk of total graft failure (hazard ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-1.02; P = .02). Discrimination was poor (C statistic = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.48-0.61). Calibration was as good at 1-year posttransplant but suboptimal at 3- and 5-years posttransplant. Limitations: Limitations include a relatively small sample size, predicted probabilities for assessment of calibration only available for scores of 0 to 100, and some missing data handled by imputation. Conclusions: In this external validation study, the predictive ability of the LKDPI was modest in a cohort of Canadian KTR. Validation of prediction models is an important step to assess performance in external populations. Potential recalibration of the LKDPI may be useful prior to clinical use in external cohorts.

scholarly journals Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Renal Insufficiency: Prognostic Role of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade

Cancers ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1130
Author(s):  
Shu-Yein Ho ◽  
Chia-Yang Hsu ◽  
Po-Hong Liu ◽  
Chih-Chieh Ko ◽  
Yi-Hsiang Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Renal Insufficiency ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Prognostic Role ◽  
The Impact

Renal insufficiency (RI) is commonly seen in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The prognostic role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in this special setting is unclear. We aimed to investigate the role of ALBI grade associated with the impact of RI on HCC. A prospective cohort of 3690 HCC patients between 2002 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. The Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model were used to determine survival and independent prognostic predictors. Of all patients, RI was an independent predictor associated with decreased survival. In multivariate Cox analysis for patients with RI, α-fetoprotein level ≥20 ng/mL, tumor size >3 cm, vascular invasion, distant metastasis, presence of ascites, performance status 1–2, performance status 3–4, and ALBI grade 2 and grade 3 were independent predictors of decreased survival (all p < 0.05). In subgroup analysis of patients with RI undergoing curative and non-curative treatments, the ALBI grade remained a significant prognostic predictor associated with decreased survival (p < 0.001). In summary, HCC patients with RI have decreased survival compared to those without RI. The ALBI grade can discriminate the survival in patients with RI independent of treatment strategy and is a feasible prognostic tool in this special patient population.

Development and validation of a pediatric disease risk index for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 7503-7503
Author(s):  
Muna Qayed ◽  
Carrie L Kitko ◽  
Kwang Woo Ahn ◽  
Mariam H Johnson ◽  
Kirk R. Schultz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model

7503 Background: Characteristics such as disease, disease status and cytogenetic abnormalities impact relapse and survival after transplantation for acute myeloid (AML) and acute lymphoblastic (ALL) leukemia. In adults, these attributes were used to derive the disease risk index for survival. Thus, the current analysis sought to develop and validate a pediatric disease risk index (p-DRI). Methods: Eligible were patients aged <18 years with AML (n=1135) and ALL (n=1228) transplanted between 2008 and 2017 in the United States. Separate analyses were performed for AML and ALL. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to a training and validation cohort. Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection was used to select significant variables (2-sided p<0.05). The primary outcome was leukemia-free survival (LFS; relapse or death were events). Based on the magnitude of log(HR), a weighted score was assigned to each characteristic that met the level of significance and risk groups were created. Results: Four risk groups were identified for AML and three risk groups for ALL (Table). The 5-year probabilities of LFS for AML were 81% (68-91), 56% (51-61), 44% (39-49) and 21% (15-28) for good, intermediate, high and very high-risk groups, respectively. The 5-year probabilities of LFS for ALL were 68% (63-72), 50% (45-54) and 15% (3-34) for good, intermediate, high risk groups, respectively. Conclusions: This validated p-DRI successfully stratified children with AML and ALL for prognostication undergoing allogeneic transplantation. [Table: see text]

Comparison of outcomes with pembrolizumab monotherapy (P) versus combination with chemotherapy (P+C) in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e21579-e21579
Author(s):  
Kartik Sehgal ◽  
Ritu R. Gill ◽  
Poorva Bindal ◽  
Anita Geevarghese Koshy ◽  
Danielle C McDonald ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Advanced Nsclc ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Objective Response ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Ecog Performance Status

e21579 Background: P and P+C are standard-of-care (SOC) treatment options for advanced NSCLC. However, they have not yet been directly compared in clinical trials. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with advanced NSCLC who initiated treatment with SOC P±C at our center from 2/11/16 to 10/15/19 (data cutoff 1/15/20). Patient demographic, clinicopathologic, therapeutic and outcomes data were extracted. All radiographic scans were independently evaluated by a thoracic radiologist using iRECIST. Survival time was defined from the start of P±C. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards model were utilized. Results: Of 103 patients with median follow up of 17.7 months, 74 (71.8%) had received P, while 29 (28.2%) had received P+C. In PD-L1 tumor proportion score (TPS) unselected population, there were no significant differences in age, sex, smoking status, driver mutation, tumor mutational burden (TMB), line of therapy, ECOG performance status (PS) or immune-related adverse events (irAE) between P and P+C groups. 71.6% in P vs 13.8% in P+C had PD-L1 TPS ≥50% (p < 0.001). There were no significant differences between the two groups in objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), unadjusted progression-free survival (PFS) or unadjusted overall survival (OS) (Table). Multivariable adjustment for confounding factors between P+C vs P revealed no differences in OS [hazard ratio (HR) for death, 1.53, 95% CI 0.55 – 4.25] or PFS [HR for progression/death, 1.75, 95% CI 0.63 – 4.91]. Further stratification into PD-L1 TPS ≥50% and < 50% showed no significant differences between P+C vs. P in adjusted OS [HR for death, TPS < 50%- 1.54 (95% CI 0.59 – 4.03); TPS ≥50%- 0.71 (95% CI 0.11 – 4.52)] or PFS [HR for progression/death, TPS < 50%- 1.58 (95% CI 0.72 – 3.48); TPS ≥50%- 0.64 (95% CI 0.06 – 6.93)]. ECOG PS and development of irAE influenced OS in all groups, while TMB was relevant in PD-L1 ≥50% only. Conclusions: Our study shows no significant differences in outcomes with P vs P+C in advanced NSCLC in a real-world setting, albeit with limitations of single-center design, limited sample size, different line settings and lack of disease burden stratification. Ongoing phase III trials comparing front line P vs P+C will definitively address the long-term clinical benefits -if any- of combining cytotoxic chemotherapy with anti-PD-1 drugs. [Table: see text]

Effects of Azacitidine (AZA) Vs Conventional Care Regimens (CCR) in Elderly (≥75 years) Patients (Pts) with Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) from the AZA-001 Survival Trial

Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 112 (11) ◽  
pp. 3629-3629 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F Seymour ◽  
Pierre Fenaux ◽  
Lewis B. Silverman ◽  
Ghulam J Mufti ◽  
Eva Hellström-Lindberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Active Treatment ◽  
Subgroup Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Treatment Options ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Risk Of Death

Abstract Background. A recent phase III trial (AZA-001) showed AZA is the first treatment to significantly extend overall survival (OS) in higher-risk MDS patients (pts) (Blood2007;110:817). MDS incidence increases with age resulting in limited treatment options, particularly for those ≥75 years of age, given the poor tolerability and ineffectiveness of cytotoxic therapies. This subgroup analysis compared the effects of AZA vs CCR on OS, hematologic improvement (HI), transfusion independence (TI), and tolerability in pts ≥75 yrs of age. Methods. Higher-risk MDS (FAB: RAEB, RAEB-T, CMML and IPSS: Int-2 or High) pts were enrolled. All pts were pre-selected by site investigators – based on age, performance status, and comorbidities – to receive 1 of 3 CCR: best supportive care only (BSC); lowdose ara-C (LDAC), or intensive chemotherapy (IC). Pts were then randomized to AZA (75 mg/m2/d SC × 7d q 28d), or to CCR. Those randomized to AZA received AZA; those randomized to CCR received their pre-selected treatment. Randomization was stratified based on FAB subtype (RAEB and RAEB-T) and IPSS (Int-2 or High). Erythropoiesis stimulating agents were disallowed. OS was assessed using Kaplan-Meier (KM) methods and HI and TI were assessed per IWG 2000. To adjust for baseline imbalances, a Cox proportional hazards model was used, with ECOG status, LDH, number of RBC transfusions, Hgb, and presence or absence of -7/del(7q) at baseline as variables in the final model. Adverse events (AEs) were evaluated using NCI-CTC v. 2.0. Results. Of all enrolled pts (N=358, median age 69 yrs), 87 pts (24%) were ≥75 yrs of age (AZA n=38, CCR n=49 [BSC, n=33; LDAC, n=14; IC, n=2]). The majority of pts randomized to CCR received BSC only, suggesting clinicians are generally reticent to use active treatment in this population. Similar to the overall AZA-001 results, treatment with AZA was associated with prolonged survival in pts ≥75 yrs of age, with KM median OS in the AZA group not reached at 17.7 months of follow-up, vs KM median OS for CCR at 10.8 months (HR: 0.48 [95%CI: 0.26, 0.89]; p=0.0193). In these pts, OS rates at 2 years were significantly higher in the AZA group vs CCR: 55% vs 15% (p=0.0003). Two-fold more RBC transfusion-dependent pts at baseline in the AZA group achieved TI vs CCR: 10/23 (44%) vs 7/32 (22%), p=0.1386, respectively. Similarly, more pts in the AZA group achieved HI (major + minor) vs CCR: 58% vs 39%, (p=0.0875), respectively. As previously reported, AZA was generally well tolerated. Anemia, neutropenia, and thrombocytopenia were seen in 42%, 66%, and 71% of pts in the AZA group, respectively, vs 47%, 26%, and 40% in the CCR group, who were predominately receiving BSC only. Infections were reported by 79% and 60% of AZA and CCR pts, respectively. Discontinuations due to an AE occurred in 13% of AZA and 8% of CCR pts ≥75 yrs of age. Conclusion. Data from this subgroup analysis indicate pts ≥75 yrs of age with higher-risk MDS receiving active treatment with AZA experience significantly prolonged 2-year OS and reduced risk of death. AZA is generally well tolerated in this elderly patient population.

scholarly journals Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in Healthcare Personnel in six Israeli Hospitals (CoVEHPI)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. Katz ◽  
Efrat Bron Harlev ◽  
Bibiana Chazan ◽  
Michal Chowers ◽  
David Greenberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Healthcare Personnel ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
A Prospective Study

Background Methodologically rigorous studies on Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection are critically needed to inform national and global policy on Covid-19 vaccine use. In Israel, healthcare personnel (HCP) were initially prioritized for Covid-19 vaccination, creating an ideal setting to evaluate real-world VE in a closely monitored population. Methods We conducted a prospective study among HCP in 6 hospitals to estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants filled out weekly symptom questionnaires, provided weekly nasal specimens, and three serology samples - at enrollment, 30 days and 90 days. We estimated VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection using the Cox Proportional Hazards model and against a combined PCR/serology endpoint using Fishers exact test. Findings Of the 1,567 HCP enrolled between December 27, 2020 and February 15, 2021, 1,250 previously uninfected participants were included in the primary analysis; 998 (79.8%) were vaccinated with their first dose prior to or at enrollment, all with Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. There were four PCR-positive events among vaccinated participants, and nine among unvaccinated participants. Adjusted two-dose VE against any PCR-confirmed infection was 94.5% (95% CI: 82.6%-98.2%); adjusted two-dose VE against a combined endpoint of PCR and seroconversion for a 60-day follow-up period was 94.5% (95% CI: 63.0%-99.0%). Five PCR-positive samples from study participants were sequenced; all were alpha variant. Interpretation Our prospective VE study of HCP in Israel with rigorous weekly surveillance found very high VE for two doses of Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 during a period of predominant alpha variant circulation.

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