Incidence and Survival Changes in Patients with Esophageal Adenocarcinoma during 1984–2013

Purpose. The morbidity of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has significantly increased in Western countries. We aimed to identify trends in incidence and survival in patients with EAC in the recent 30 years and then analyzed potential risk factors, including race, sex, age, and socioeconomic status (SES). Methods. All data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results or SEER database. Kaplan–Meier analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model were conducted to compare the differences in survival between variables, including sex, race, age, and SES, as well as to evaluate the association of these factors with prognosis. Results. A total of 16,474 patients with EAC were identified from 1984 to 2013 in the United States. Overall incidence increased every 10 years from 1.8 to 3.1 to 3.9 per 100. Overall survival gradually improved (p<0.0001), which was evident in male patients ((hazard ratio (HR) = 1.111; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.07, 1.15)); however, the 5-year survival rate remained low (20.1%). The Cox proportional hazards model identified old age, black ethnicity, and medium/high poverty as risk factors for EAC (HR = 1.018; 95% CI (1.017, 1.019; HR = 1.240, 95% CI (1.151,1.336), HR = 1.000, 95% CI (1.000, 1.000); respectively). Conclusions. The incidence of EAC in the United States increased over time. Survival advantage was observed in white patients and patients in the low-poverty group. Sex was an independent prognostic factor for EAC, but this finding has to be confirmed by further research.

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Survival Analysis of COVID-19 on Democracy with Cox Proportional Hazards Model

10.21203/rs.3.rs-33141/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yue Zhao ◽

Deepika Dilip

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Survival Analysis ◽

South Korea ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

The United States ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Effective Measure ◽

Hazards Model

Abstract Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has struck us in many ways and we observed that China and South Korea found an effective measure to contain the virus. Conversely, the United States and the European countries are struggling to fight the virus. China is not considered a democracy and South Korea is less democratic than the United States. Therefore, we want to explore the association between the deaths of COVID-19 and democracy. Methods: We collected COVID-19 deaths data for each country from the Johns Hopkins University website and democracy indices of 2018 from the Economist Intelligence Unit website in May 2020. Then we conducted a survival analysis, regarding each country as a subject, with the Cox Proportional Hazards Model, adjusting for other selected variables. Result: The result showed that the association between democracy and deaths of COVID-19 was significant (P=0.04), adjusting for other covariates. Conclusion: In conclusion, less democratic governments performed better in containing the virus and controlling the number of deaths.

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Risk factors for disease progression in low-teens normal-tension glaucoma

British Journal of Ophthalmology ◽

10.1136/bjophthalmol-2018-313375 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 104 (1) ◽

pp. 81-86 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Sung Uk Baek ◽

Ahnul Ha ◽

Dai Woo Kim ◽

Jin Wook Jeoung ◽

Ki Ho Park ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Disease Progression ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Normal Tension Glaucoma ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Diurnal Iop

Background/AimsTo investigate the risk factors for disease progression of normal-tension glaucoma (NTG) with pretreatment intraocular pressure (IOP) in the low-teens.MethodsOne-hundred and two (102) eyes of 102 patients with NTG with pretreatment IOP≤12 mm Hg who had been followed up for more than 60 months were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were divided into progressor and non-progressor groups according to visual field (VF) progression as correlated with change of optic disc or retinal nerve fibre layer defect. Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics including diurnal IOP and 24 hours blood pressure (BP) were compared between the two groups. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the risk factors for disease progression.ResultsThirty-six patients (35.3%) were classified as progressors and 66 (64.7%) as non-progressors. Between the two groups, no significant differences were found in the follow-up periods (8.7±3.4 vs 7.7±3.2 years; p=0.138), baseline VF mean deviation (−4.50±5.65 vs −3.56±4.30 dB; p=0.348) or pretreatment IOP (11.34±1.21 vs 11.17±1.06 mm Hg; p=0.121). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model indicated that greater diurnal IOP at baseline (HR=1.609; p=0.004), greater fluctuation of diastolic BP (DBP; HR=1.058; p=0.002) and presence of optic disc haemorrhage during follow-up (DH; HR=3.664; p=0.001) were risk factors for glaucoma progression.ConclusionIn the low-teens NTG eyes, 35.3% showed glaucoma progression during the average 8.7 years of follow-up. Fluctuation of DBP and diurnal IOP as well as DH were significantly associated with greater probability of disease progression.

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Risk Factors for Mortality in Chinese Patients on Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis

Peritoneal Dialysis International ◽

10.3747/pdi.2013.00164 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 35 (2) ◽

pp. 199-205 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Fan Zhang ◽

Hong Liu ◽

Xiaoli Gong ◽

Fuyou Liu ◽

Youming Peng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Peritoneal Dialysis ◽

Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Patient Survival ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Kaplan Meier

ObjectiveThe intent of this study was to evaluate the clinical outcome and risk factors affecting mortality of the continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients in a single peritoneal dialysis (PD) center over a period of 10 years.Patients and methodsWe retrospectively analyzed patients on PD from June 2001 to June 2011. The clinical and biochemical data were collected from the medical records. Clinical variables included gender, age at the start of PD, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), presence of diabetes mellitus and blood pressure. Biochemical variables included hemoglobin, urine volume, residual renal function (RRF), serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, total cholesterol, triglyceride, comorbidities, and outcomes. Survival curves were made by the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analyses to identify mortality risk factors were performed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model.ResultsA total of 421 patients were enrolled, 269 of whom were male (63.9%). The mean age at the start of PD was 57.9 ± 14.8 years. Chronic glomerulonephritis was the most common cause of ESRD (39.4%). Estimation of patient survival by Kaplan-Meier was 92.5%, 80.2%, 74.4%, and 55.7% at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Patient survival was associated with age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.641 [1.027 – 2.622], p = 0.038), cardiovascular disease (HR: 1.731 [1.08 – 2.774], p = 0.023), hypertriglyceridemia (HR: 1.782 [1.11 – 2.858], p = 0.017) in the Cox proportional hazards model analysis. Estimation of technique survival by Kaplan-Meier was 86.7%, 68.8%, 55.7%, and 37.4% at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. In the Cox proportional hazards model analysis, age (HR: 1.672 [1.176 – 2.377], p = 0.004) and hypertriglyceridemia (HR: 1.511 [1.050 – 2.174], p = 0.026) predicted technique failure.ConclusionThe PD patients in our center exhibited comparable or even superior patient survival and technical survival rates, compared with reports from other centers in China and other countries.

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The Real-World status and risk factors for a poor prognosis in elderly patients with primary central nervous system malignant lymphomas: a multicenter retrospective cohort study of the Tohoku Brain Tumor Study Group

10.21203/rs.3.rs-291646/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Kenichiro Asano ◽

Yoji Yamashita ◽

Takahiro Ono ◽

Manabu Natsumeda ◽

Takaaki Beppu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Central Nervous System ◽

Nervous System ◽

Poor Prognosis ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Pre Treatment

Abstract Introduction The number of elderly patients with primary central nervous system malignant lymphoma(EL-PCNSL) has been increasing. However, due to their poor pre-treatment Karnofsky Performance Status(KPS) and many comorbidities, it is possible that sufficient treatment has not been performed. We therefore conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate risk factors associated with a poor prognosis of the Real-World status of EL-PCNSL in the Tohoku Brain Tumor Study Group. Methods Patients aged ≥ 71 years with PCNSL were enrolled from 8 centers. Univariate analysis was performed by the log-rank test. A Cox proportional hazards model was used for multivariate analysis. Results Three of total 142 cases received best supportive care(BSC) from the beginning. Treatment was given to 30 cases without a pathological diagnosis, 3 cases with a cerebrospinal fluid diagnosis, and 100 cases with CD20-positive DLBCL diagnosis. Total 133 cases(median age 76 years) were included. The median pre-treatment KPS was 50%. There were 117(88.0%) patients with 213 pre-treatment comorbidities(1.8 comorbidities per patient). PFS and OS were 16 months and 24 months, respectively. Risk factors associated with poor prognosis on Cox proportional hazards model were pre-treatment cardiovascular disease and central nervous system disease comorbidities, post-treatment pneumonia and other infections, and the absence of radiation or chemotherapy. Conclusions EL-PCNSL was actively treated and BSC was only a few. Pre-treatment comorbidities and post-treatment complications would influence the prognosis. Radiation and chemotherapy were found to be effective, but no conclusions could be drawn regarding the content of chemotherapy and whether additional radiation therapy should be used.

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Use of the Living Kidney Donor Profile Index in the Canadian Kidney Transplant Recipient Population: A Validation Study

Canadian Journal of Kidney Health and Disease ◽

10.1177/2054358120906976 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

pp. 205435812090697

Author(s):

Mohamed Shantier ◽

Yanhong Li ◽

Monika Ashwin ◽

Olsegun Famure ◽

Sunita K. Singh

Keyword(s):

Validation Study ◽

Graft Failure ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

External Validation ◽

The United States ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Living Kidney Donor ◽

Hazards Model

Background: The Living Kidney Donor Profile Index (LKDPI) was derived in a cohort of kidney transplant recipients (KTR) from the United States to predict the risk of total graft failure. There are important differences in patient demographics, listing practices, access to transplantation, delivery of care, and posttransplant mortality in Canada as compared with the United States, and the generalizability of the LKDPI in the Canadian context is unknown. Objective: The purpose of this study was to externally validate the LKDPI in a large contemporary cohort of Canadian KTR. Design: Retrospective cohort validation study. Setting: Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Patients: A total of 645 adult (≥18 years old) living donor KTR between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2016 with follow-up until December 31, 2017 were included in the study. Measurements: The predictive performance of the LKDPI was evaluated. The outcome of interest was total graft failure, defined as the need for chronic dialysis, retransplantation, or death with graft function. Methods: The Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the relation between the LKDPI and total graft failure. The Cox proportional hazards model was also used for external validation and performance assessment of the model. Discrimination and calibration were used to assess model performance. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell’s C statistic and calibration was assessed graphically, comparing observed versus predicted probabilities of total graft failure. Results: A total of 645 living donor KTR were included in the study. The median LKDPI score was 13 (interquartile range [IQR] = 1.1, 29.9). Higher LKDPI scores were associated with an increased risk of total graft failure (hazard ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-1.02; P = .02). Discrimination was poor (C statistic = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.48-0.61). Calibration was as good at 1-year posttransplant but suboptimal at 3- and 5-years posttransplant. Limitations: Limitations include a relatively small sample size, predicted probabilities for assessment of calibration only available for scores of 0 to 100, and some missing data handled by imputation. Conclusions: In this external validation study, the predictive ability of the LKDPI was modest in a cohort of Canadian KTR. Validation of prediction models is an important step to assess performance in external populations. Potential recalibration of the LKDPI may be useful prior to clinical use in external cohorts.

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Increased Visceral Adipose Tissue and Hyperinsulinemia Raise the Risk for Recurrence of Non-B Non-C Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Curative Treatment

Cancers ◽

10.3390/cancers13071542 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (7) ◽

pp. 1542

Author(s):

Kenji Imai ◽

Koji Takai ◽

Takao Miwa ◽

Toshihide Maeda ◽

Tatsunori Hanai ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Curative Treatment ◽

Decision Tree Analysis ◽

Tree Analysis ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Visceral Adipose

We investigated the factors affecting recurrence-free survival in patients with non-B non-C hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received curative treatment. Decision-tree analysis was performed in 72 curative cases of non-B non-C HCC to extract the risk factors for recurrence. The reliability of the extracted risk factors was evaluated using the Kaplan–Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model. The decision-tree analysis extracted three factors—visceral adipose tissue (VAT) index (VATI; <71 and ≥71 cm2/m2), which was the cross-sectional areas of VAT on the computed tomographic image at the umbilical level, normalized by the square of the height, fasting immunoreactive insulin (FIRI; <5.5 and ≥5.5 µU/mL), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP; <11 and ≥11 ng/mL). The Cox proportional hazards model showed that VATI (hazard ratio (HR): 2.556, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.191–5.486, p = 0.016), FIRI (HR: 3.149, 95% CI: 1.156–8.575, p = 0.025), and AFP (HR: 3.362, 95% CI: 1.550–7.288, p = 0.002) were all independent risk factors for HCC recurrence. Non-B non-C HCC patients with a higher VATI (≥71 cm2/m2) or higher FIRI (≥5.5 µU/mL) and AFP (≥11 ng/mL) if VATI was <71 cm2/m2 are prone to recurrence after curative treatment.

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Efficacy Analysis of Multidisciplinary Treatment for Wilm’s Tumor in Single Center

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1185550/v1 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Bing Yan ◽

Fengming Ji ◽

Chengchuang Wu ◽

Ye Li ◽

Haoyu Tang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Multidisciplinary Treatment ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Histological Type ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Kaplan Meier

Abstract Objective: To analyze the efficacy of multidisciplinary treatment (MDT) for Wilm’s tumor (WT) in Kunming Children’s Hospital, and investigate the risk factors affecting the prognosis of WT.Method: The clinic-pathological data were collected and analyzed in patients with unilateral WT treated in Kunming Children's Hospital from January 2017 to July 2021. Research objects were selected according to inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria. The risk factors and independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of patients with WT were determined by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards model, respectively. Outcome: A total of 68 children were included in this study, and the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 92.65%. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis results showed that ethnicity (P=0.020), the tumor volume of resection (P=0.001), histological type (P<0.001), and postoperative recurrence (P<0.001) were the factors affecting the prognosis of children with WT. The results of the Cox proportional hazards model showed that only the histological type (P=0.028) was the independent risk factor for the prognosis of WT.Conclusion: The efficacy of MDT for WT was satisfying. The histological type has important predictive value for the prognosis of WT, and the patient with unfavorable histology has a poor prognosis.

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Management and 30-Day Mortality of Acute Coronary Syndrome in a Resource-Limited Setting: Insight From Ethiopia. A Prospective Cohort Study

Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine ◽

10.3389/fcvm.2021.707700 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Korinan Fanta ◽

Fekadu Bekele Daba ◽

Elsah Tegene Asefa ◽

Tsegaye Melaku ◽

Legese Chelkeba ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Clinical Characteristics ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Reperfusion Therapy ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Coronary Syndrome ◽

Hazards Model ◽

All Cause Mortality

Background: Despite the fact that the burden, risk factors, and clinical characteristics of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have been studied widely in developed countries, limited data are available from sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this study aimed at evaluating the clinical characteristics, treatment, and 30-day mortality of patients with ACS admitted to tertiary hospitals in Ethiopia.Methods: A total of 181 ACS patients admitted to tertiary care hospitals in Ethiopia were enrolled from March 15 to November 15, 2018. The clinical characteristics, management, and 30-day mortality were evaluated by ACS subtype. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results: The majority (61%) of ACS patients were admitted with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The mean age was 56 years, with male predominance (62.4%). More than two-thirds (67.4%) of patients presented to hospital after 12 h of symptom onset. Dyslipidemia (48%) and hypertension (44%) were the most common risk factors identified. In-hospital dual antiplatelet and statin use was high (>90%), followed by beta-blockers (81%) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs; 72%). Late reperfusion with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was done for only 13 (7.2%), and none of the patients received early reperfusion therapy. The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 25.4%. On multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis, older age [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.003–1.057], systolic blood pressure (HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.975–1.000), serum creatinine (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.056–1.643), Killip class > II (HR = 4.62, 95% CI = 2.502–8.523), ejection fraction <40% (HR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.463–5.162), and STEMI (HR = 2.72, 95% CI = 1.006–4.261) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality.Conclusions: The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was unacceptably high, which implies an urgent need to establish a nationwide program to reduce pre-hospital delay, promoting the use of guideline-directed medications, and increasing access to reperfusion therapy.

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Comparison of Valvulopathy Risk with Lorcaserin and Phenterminetopiramate for Weight Loss

Current Drug Therapy ◽

10.2174/1574885513666180503141557 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 74-78

Author(s):

Michael Guo ◽

Mahyar Etminan ◽

Bruce Carleton

Keyword(s):

Weight Loss ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Adverse Outcome ◽

The United States ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

One Year

Background: Lorcaserin and phentermine-topiramate are two drugs marketed for obesity that have shown moderate efficacy after one year of use. However, concerns over risks of serious cardiovascular harms including valvulopathy have been brought up for both drugs, prompting an epidemiologic investigation to quantify this adverse outcome using real-world clinical data. Objective: To compare rates of valvulopathy between the weight-loss drugs lorcaserin and phentermine-topiramate. Methods: A retrospective cohort study using the PharMetrics database from the United States was conducted. From approximately 9 million subjects captured in the database from 2006 to 2016, we identified all patients who had received at least one prescription for lorcaserin or phentermine-topiramate. Users of either drug were followed to the first mutually exclusive diagnosis of non-congenital valvulopathy defined as having received an international classification for diseases, ninth revision clinical modification [ICD-9- CM] code for valvulopathy, or to the end of the study period. A Cox Proportional Hazards model was then constructed to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) to compare the rates of valvulopathy between users of the two drugs. Results: We identified 1,981 lorcaserin users and 1,806 phentermine-topiramate users. Rates of valvulopathy for lorcaserin and phentermine-topiramate cohorts were 26 and 24 per 1000-person-years, respectively. The crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the two cohorts with respect to valvulopathy were 1.28 (95% CI: 0.73,2.26) and 1.16 (95% CI: 0.65-2.05), respectively. Conclusion: Our analysis suggests comparable rates of valvulopathy between lorcaserin and phentermine-topiramate users. Clinicians are advised to consider the risk of valvular disease when medically managing obesity.

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Clinical course and risk factors of fatal adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients in Korea: a nationwide retrospective cohort study

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-89548-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Juhyun Song ◽

Dae Won Park ◽

Jae-hyung Cha ◽

Hyeri Seok ◽

Joo Yeong Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Retrospective Cohort ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Adverse Outcomes ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Icu Admission ◽

Hazards Model

AbstractWe investigated association between epidemiological and clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and clinical outcomes in Korea. This nationwide retrospective cohort study included 5621 discharged patients with COVID-19, extracted from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) database. We compared clinical data between survivors (n = 5387) and non-survivors (n = 234). We used logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards model to explore risk factors of death and fatal adverse outcomes. Increased odds ratio (OR) of mortality occurred with age (≥ 60 years) [OR 11.685, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.655–34.150, p < 0.001], isolation period, dyspnoea, altered mentality, diabetes, malignancy, dementia, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The multivariable regression equation including all potential variables predicted mortality (AUC = 0.979, 95% CI 0.964–0.993). Cox proportional hazards model showed increasing hazard ratio (HR) of mortality with dementia (HR 6.376, 95% CI 3.736–10.802, p < 0.001), ICU admission (HR 4.233, 95% CI 2.661–6.734, p < 0.001), age ≥ 60 years (HR 3.530, 95% CI 1.664–7.485, p = 0.001), malignancy (HR 3.054, 95% CI 1.494–6.245, p = 0.002), and dyspnoea (HR 1.823, 95% CI 1.125–2.954, p = 0.015). Presence of dementia, ICU admission, age ≥ 60 years, malignancy, and dyspnoea could help clinicians identify COVID-19 patients with poor prognosis.

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