scholarly journals Patients at high risk for a severe clinical course of COVID-19 — small-area data in support of vaccination and other population-based interventions in Germany

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob Holstiege ◽  
Manas K. Akmatov ◽  
Claudia Kohring ◽  
Lotte Dammertz ◽  
Frank Ng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Chronic Conditions ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
German Population ◽  
Social Law

Abstract Background Research has shown that the risk for a severe course of COVID-19 is increased in the elderly population and among patients with chronic conditions. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of the size of vulnerable populations at high risk for a severe COVID-19 course in Germany based on the currently available risk factor data. Methods We used nationwide outpatient claims data from the years 2010 to 2019 collected according to § 295 of the Code of Social Law V, covering data for all statutory health insurees (SHI) which is nearly 87% of the entire German population. We considered 15 chronic disorders based on the current state of knowledge about clinically relevant risk factors. Three risk groups for a severe COVID-19 course were defined: 1. individuals in the age group 15 to 59 years with at least two comorbid disorders; 2. individuals aged 60 to 79 years with at least one disorder and 3. all individuals 80 years and older irrespective of the presence of chronic conditions. Regional analysis was conducted at the level of administrative districts (n = 401). Results Overall, 26% of individuals over 15 years were at high risk for a severe COVID-19 course in 2019 amounting to a total number of nearly 18.5 million individuals in Germany. This included 3.8 million individuals in risk group 1, 9.2 million in risk group 2, and 5.4 million in risk group 3, corresponding to 8, 50 and 100% of German inhabitants in the respective age groups. On the level of the 17 administrative regions formed by the Association of SHI Physicians (ASHIP regions), the proportion of individuals at high risk ranged between 21% in Hamburg and 35% in Saxony-Anhalt. Small-area estimates varied between 18% in Freiburg (Baden-Württemberg) and 39% in the district Elbe-Elster (Brandenburg). Conclusions The present study provides small-area estimates of populations at high risk for a severe COVID-19 course. These data are of particular importance for planning of preventive measures such as vaccination. Trial registration not applicable.

Suicide in Nógrád County, Hungary, 1970-1994

Crisis ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamás Zonda
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Psychiatric Disorders ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Female Ratio ◽  
Suicide Notes ◽  
Suicidal Intention ◽  
Male Female Ratio

The author examined completed suicides occurring over a period of 25 years in a county of Hungary with a traditionally low (relatively speaking) suicide rate of 25.8. The rates are clearly higher in villages than in the towns. The male/female ratio was close to 4:1, among elderly though only 1.5:1. The high risk groups are the elderly, divorced, and widowed. Violent methods are chosen in 66.4% of the cases. The rates are particularly high in the period April-July. Prior communication of suicidal intention was revealed in 16.3% of all cases. Previous attempts had been undertaken by 17%, which in turn means that 83% of suicides were first attempts. In our material 10% the victims left suicide notes. Psychiatric disorders were present in 60.1% of the cases, and severe, multiple somatic illnesses (including malignomas) were present in 8.8%. The majority of the data resemble those found in the literature.

Short-term risk stratification using CADILLAC risk score in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Satou ◽  
H Kitahara ◽  
K Ishikawa ◽  
T Nakayama ◽  
Y Fujimoto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Recurrent Myocardial Infarction ◽  
St Elevation

Abstract Background The recent reperfusion therapy for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has made the length of hospital stay shorter without adverse events. CADILLAC risk score is reportedly one of the risk scores predicting the long-term prognosis in STEMI patients. Purpose To invenstigate the usefulness of CADILLAC risk score for predicting short-term outcomes in STEMI patients. Methods Consecutive patients admitted to our university hospital and our medical center with STEMI (excluding shock, arrest case) who underwent primary PCI between January 2012 and April 2018 (n=387) were enrolled in this study. The patients were classified into 3 groups according to the CADILLAC risk score: low risk (n=176), intermediate risk (n=87), and high risk (n=124). Data on adverse events within 30 days after hospitalization, including in-hospital death, sustained ventricular arrhythmia, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure requiring intravenous treatment, stroke, or clinical hemorrhage, were collected. Results In the low risk group, adverse events within 30 days were significantly less observed, compared to the intermediate and high risk groups (n=13, 7.4% vs. n=13, 14.9% vs. n=58, 46.8%, p<0.001). In particular, all adverse events occurred within 3 days in the low risk group, although adverse events, such as heart failure (n=4), recurrent myocardial infarction (n=1), stroke (n=1), and gastrointestinal bleeding (n=1), were substantially observed after day 4 of hospitalization in the intermediate and high risk groups. Conclusions In STEMI patients with low CADILLAC risk score, better short-term prognosis was observed compared to the intermediate and high risk groups, and all adverse events occurred within 3 days of hospitalization, suggesting that discharge at day 4 might be safe in this study population. CADILLAC risk score may help stratify patient risk for short-term prognosis and adjust management of STEMI patients. Initial event occurrence timing Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Immune‐related Long Noncoding RNA Signature for Patients with Cervical Cancer

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfeng Zheng ◽  
Jinyi Tong ◽  
Benben Cao ◽  
Xia Zhang ◽  
Zheng Niu
Keyword(s):  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Immune Cell ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Score Model

Abstract Background: Cervical cancer (CC) is a common gynecological malignancy for which prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers are urgently needed. The signature based on immune‐related lncRNAs(IRLs) of CC has never been reported. This study aimed to establish an IRL signature for patients with CC.Methods: The RNA-seq dataset was obtained from the TCGA, GEO, and GTEx database. The immune scores（IS）based on single-sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA) were calculated to identify the IRLs, which were then analyzed using univariate Cox regression analysis to identify significant prognostic IRLs. A risk score model was established to divide patients into low-risk and high-risk groups based on the median risk score of these IRLs. This was then validated by splitting TCGA dataset(n=304) into a training-set(n=152) and a valid-set(n=152). The fraction of 22 immune cell subpopulations was evaluated in each sample to identify the differences between low-risk and high-risk groups. Additionally, a ceRNA network associated with the IRLs was constructed.Results: A cohort of 326 CC and 21 normal tissue samples with corresponding clinical information was included in this study. Twenty-eight IRLs were collected according to the Pearson’s correlation analysis between immune score and lncRNA expression (P < 0.01). Four IRLs (BZRAP1-AS1, EMX2OS, ZNF667-AS1, and CTC-429P9.1) with the most significant prognostic values (P < 0.05) were identified which demonstrated an ability to stratify patients into low-risk and high-risk groups by developing a risk score model. It was observed that patients in the low‐risk group showed longer overall survival (OS) than those in the high‐risk group in the training-set, valid-set, and total-set. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) for the four IRLs signature in predicting the one-, two-, and three-year survival rates were larger than 0.65. In addition, the low-risk and high-risk groups displayed different immune statuses in GSEA. These IRLs were also significantly correlated with immune cell infiltration. Conclusions: Our results showed that the IRL signature had a prognostic value for CC. Meanwhile, the specific mechanisms of the four-IRLs in the development of CC were ascertained preliminarily.

scholarly journals Establishment of an immune-related gene pairs model to predict colon adenocarcinoma prognosis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihang Luo ◽  
Puyu Liu ◽  
Leibo Wang ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Yuanyan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colon Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Colon Adenocarcinoma ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Related Gene ◽  
Immune Genes ◽  
Gene Pairs ◽  
Immune Related Gene

Abstract Background Colon cancer is the most common type of gastrointestinal cancer and has high morbidity and mortality. Colon adenocarcinoma(COAD) is the main pathological type of colon cancer. There is a lot of evidence describing the correlation between the prognosis of COAD and the immune system. The objective of the current study was the development of a robust prognostic immune-related gene pairs (IRGPs) model for estimating overall survival of COAD. Methods The gene expression profiles and clinical information of patients with colon adenocarcinoma come from TCGA and GEO databases and are divided into training and validation cohorts. Immune genes were selected which show significantly association with prognosis. Results Among 1647 immune genes, a 17 IRGPs model was built which was significantly associated with OS in the training cohort. In the training and validation data set, the IRGPs model divided patients into high-risk groups and low-risk groups, and the prognosis of the high-risk group was significantly worse( P <0.001). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis confirmed the feasibility of this model. Functional analysis confirmed that multiple tumor progression and stem cell growth-related pathways in high-risk groups were up-regulated. T cells regulatory and Macrophage M0 were significantly highly expressed in the high-risk group. Conclusion We successfully constructed an IRGPs model that can predict the prognosis of COAD, which provides new insights into the treatment strategy of COAD.

scholarly journals Retrospective Comparative Analysis of POPF Using Fistula Risk Score According to Pancreaticoenterostomy Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 105 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 559-563
Author(s):  
Seungmin Lee ◽  
Kwang Yeol Paik
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Pancreatic Fistula ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula ◽  
Clinical Risk Score ◽  
Reconstructive Methods ◽  
Fistula Risk Score

Background The aim of this study is to examine whether pancreaticogastrostomy (PG) or pancreaticojejunostomy (PJ) is the better reconstructive method to reduce postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) according to the fistula risk. Methods An institutional database was reviewed for patients undergoing PD between January 2008 and August 2019. A total of 159 patients were stratified into 4 groups according to the Clinical Risk Score-Pancreatic Fistula. POPF according to 4 risk groups was compared between PJ and PG. Results Of the 159 patients, 82 underwent PG (51.6%) and 77 underwent PJ (48.4%) reconstruction. POPF rate was 17.1% (n = 14) in the PG group and 12.9% (n = 10) in the PJ group (P = 0.51). POPF rates were not different in intermediate, low, and negligible risks between 2 reconstructive methods. In the high-risk group (n = 47), there were 4 POPFs (22.2%) in PJ group and 9 (31.0%) in the PG group, respectively (P = 0.74). Conclusion In PD, there was no superior method of reconstruction with regard to POPF, even in high-risk glands.

Abstract 18787: Hypertension Treatment and Control Rates in United States Adults by Risk Group

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunal N Karmali ◽  
Hongyan Ning ◽  
Donald M Lloyd-Jones
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Intensive Therapy ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Ascvd Risk ◽  
Middle Aged Adults ◽  
And Control

Introduction: Ten-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and absolute benefit from antihypertensive therapy vary at any given BP based on associated risk factor levels. Thus, implications of treatment and control rates at a particular BP vary substantially in different risk groups. Objectives: We examined the prevalence, treatment, and control of hypertension (HTN) by risk group in US adults without prevalent CVD. Methods: We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005 to 2010 for adults age 40-79 years without prevalent CVD (n=4,066). We estimated 10-year risk for an atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) event using the ACC/AHA 2013 Pooled Cohort risk equations. We examined HTN treatment and control rates according to current guidelines in middle-aged (40-59 years) and older (60-79 years) adults with: 10-year ASCVD risk <7.5% (no diabetes/kidney disease); 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5% (no diabetes/kidney disease); and either diabetes or kidney disease. Results: The proportion of adults with treatment-eligible HTN was 39.3% for those with 10-year ASCVD risk <7.5%, 32.2% for those with 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%, and 28.4% for those with either diabetes or kidney disease (see Table 1). Treatment rates across the risk groups varied from 51.5% to 79.0% for middle-aged adults and 81.8% to 90.2% for older adults. HTN control rates were highest (87.7%) in older adults with 10-year ASCVD risk <7.5% but were lowest (29.3%) in middle-aged individuals with 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%. Conclusions: US HTN guidelines, based solely on BP thresholds, identify a higher proportion of low-risk adults and a lower proportion of high-risk adults as being eligible for treatment. Control rates remain suboptimal in high-risk individuals, particularly middle-aged adults. Future guidelines should consider pre-treatment risk stratification to identify those at increased pretreatment ASCVD risk who would benefit most from more intensive therapy.

A Novel Risk Classification Model Predicts Overall Survival and Locoregional Surgery Benefit in Colorectal Patients with Distant Metastasis at the Initial Diagnosis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo Chen ◽  
Tian-en Li ◽  
Pei-zhun Du ◽  
Junjie Pan ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Distant Metastasis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Intermediate Risk

Abstract Background and aims: In this research, we aimed to construct a risk classification model to predict overall survival (OS) and locoregional surgery benefit in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with distant metastasis.Methods: We selected a cohort consisting of 12741 CRC patients diagnosed with distant metastasis between 2010 and 2014, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly assigned into training group and validation group at the ratio of 2:1. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to screen independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed and assessed by the Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. A novel risk classification model was further established based on the nomogram.Results: Ultimately 12 independent risk factors including race, age, marriage, tumor site, tumor size, grade, T stage, N stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis and liver metastasis were identified and adopted in the nomogram. The C-indexes of training and validation groups were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.81) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78), respectively. The risk classification model stratified patients into three risk groups (low-, intermediate- and high-risk) with divergent median OS (low-risk: 36.0 months, 95% CI 34.1-37.9; intermediate-risk: 18.0 months, 95% CI 17.4-18.6; high-risk: 6.0 months, 95% CI 5.3-6.7). Locoregional therapies including surgery and radiotherapy could prognostically benefit patients in the low-risk group (surgery: hazard ratio [HR] 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.71; radiotherapy: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.98) and intermediate risk group (surgery: HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.54-0.68; radiotherapy: HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.95), but not in the high-risk group (surgery: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82-1.29; radiotherapy: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.81-1.31). And all risk groups could benefit from systemic therapy (low-risk: HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.80; intermediate-risk: HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.47-0.54; high-risk: HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.53).Conclusion: A novel risk classification model predicting prognosis and locoregional surgery benefit of CRC patients with distant metastasis was established and validated. This predictive model could be further utilized by physicians and be of great significance for medical practice.

scholarly journals MO048MULTICENTRE PROSPECTIVE VALIDATION OF THE URINARY PEPTIDOME-BASED CLASSIFIER CKD273 AS A PREDICTOR OF RENAL FUNCTION DECLINE IN SUBJECTS WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morten Lindhardt ◽  
Nete Tofte ◽  
Gemma Currie ◽  
Marie Frimodt-Moeller ◽  
Heiko Von der Leyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Renal Function ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Cox Model ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Renal Function Decline

Abstract Background and Aims In the PRIORITY study, it was recently demonstrated that the urinary peptidome-based classifier CKD273 was associated with increased risk for progression to microalbuminuria. As a prespecified secondary outcome, we aim to evaluate the classifier CKD273 as a determinant of relative reductions in eGFR (CKD-EPI) of 30% and 40% from baseline, at one timepoint without requirements of confirmation. Method The ‘Proteomic prediction and Renin angiotensin aldosterone system Inhibition prevention Of early diabetic nephRopathy In TYpe 2 diabetic patients with normoalbuminuria trial’ (PRIORITY) is the first prospective observational study to evaluate the early detection of diabetic kidney disease in subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and normoalbuminuria using the CKD273 classifier. Setting 1775 subjects from 15 European sites with a mean follow-up time of 2.6 years (minimum of 7 days and a maximum of 4.3 years). Patients Subjects with T2D, normoalbuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 45 ml/min/1.73m2. Participants were stratified into high- or low-risk groups based on their CKD273 score in a urine sample at screening (high-risk defined as score &gt; 0.154). Results In total, 12 % (n = 216) of the subjects had a high-risk proteomic pattern. Mean (SD) baseline eGFR was 88 (15) ml/min/1.73m2 in the low-risk group and 81 (17) ml/min/1.73m2 in the high-risk group (p &lt; 0.01). Baseline median (interquartile range) urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) was 5 (3-8) mg/g and 7 (4-12) mg/g in the low-risk and high-risk groups, respectively (p &lt; 0.01). A 30 % reduction in eGFR from baseline was seen in 42 (19.4 %) subjects in the high-risk group as compared to 62 (3.9 %) in the low-risk group (p &lt; 0.0001). In an unadjusted Cox-model the hazard ratio (HR) for the high-risk group was 5.7, 95 % confidence interval (CI) (3.9 to 8.5; p&lt;0.0001). After adjustment for baseline eGFR and UACR, the HR was 5.2, 95 % CI (3.4 to 7.8; p&lt;0.0001). A 40 % reduction in eGFR was seen in 15 (6.9 %) subjects in the high-risk group whereas 22 (1.4 %) in the low-risk group developed this endpoint (p&lt;0.0001). In an unadjusted Cox-model the HR for the high-risk group was 5.0, 95 % CI (2.6 to 9.6; p&lt;0.0001). After adjustment for baseline eGFR and UACR, the HR was 4.8, 95 % CI (2.4 to 9.7; p&lt;0.0001). Conclusion In normoalbuminuric subjects with T2D, the urinary proteomic classifier CKD273 predicts renal function decline of 30 % and 40 %, independent of baseline eGFR and albuminuria.

scholarly journals Immune-Related Four-lncRNA Signature for Patients with Cervical Cancer

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Jianfeng Zheng ◽  
Benben Cao ◽  
Xia Zhang ◽  
Zheng Niu ◽  
Jinyi Tong
Keyword(s):  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Immune Cell ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Gynecological Malignancy

Cervical cancer (CC) is a common gynecological malignancy for which prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers are urgently needed. The signature based on immune-related lncRNAs (IRLs) of CC has never been reported. This study is aimed at establishing an IRL signature for patients with CC. A cohort of 326 CC and 21 normal tissue samples with corresponding clinical information was included in this study. Twenty-eight IRLs were collected according to the Pearson correlation analysis between the immune score and lncRNA expression ( p < 0.01 ). Four IRLs (BZRAP1-AS1, EMX2OS, ZNF667-AS1, and CTC-429P9.1) with the most significant prognostic values ( p < 0.05 ) were identified which demonstrated an ability to stratify patients into the low-risk and high-risk groups by developing a risk score model. It was observed that patients in the low-risk group showed longer overall survival (OS) than those in the high-risk group in the training set, valid set, and total set. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) for the four-IRL signature in predicting the one-, two-, and three-year survival rates was larger than 0.65. In addition, the low-risk and high-risk groups displayed different immune statuses in GSEA. These IRLs were also significantly correlated with immune cell infiltration. Our results showed that the IRL signature had a prognostic value for CC. Meanwhile, the specific mechanisms of the four IRLs in the development of CC were ascertained preliminarily.

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