scholarly journals The Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: A Bayesian VAR Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordana Djurovic ◽  
Vasilije Djurovic ◽  
Martin M Bojaj
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Fast Recovery ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Bayesian Var

Abstract The outbreak of COVID-19 has faced the globe with economic upheaval. The research problem of this paper focuses on examining, diagnosing, and assessing appropriate macroprudential policy response of the Montenegrin government to the evolution of the pandemic disease. We explore three economic scenarios – shocks – of how the pandemic disease might impact the economy of Montenegro in the dawn of entering the European Union. We forecast a sustainable GDP growth model from January 2006 until December 2017. Deterministic-static simulation solution model – the baseline – is employed, adding sensitivity scenarios – shocks – from January 2018 until Jun 2018, respectively, from -10% until -60%. Thus, we observe what happens to GDP, capital stock, human capital, and employment. The model measures econometrically the macroeconomic costs, using Bayesian VAR independent Normal-Wishart prior, of the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply lost due to illness and closed activities in the GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. The supply side is hit severely through employment and human capital, while the demand through the capital stock. The measures, focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegro’s companies are justified public finance spending.The results show a toll on the GDP, employment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2018. Still, most likely, fast recovery of GDP growth is predicted in 2019 in case macroprudential policymakers make an appropriate fiscal and monetary combination puzzle.

scholarly journals The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordana Djurovic ◽  
Vasilije Djurovic ◽  
Martin M. Bojaj
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Health Expenditures ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Policy Measures

Abstract This study examines, diagnoses, and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19. The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply loss due to illness and closed activities and their effects on GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. We explore five economic scenarios—shocks—using the available data from January 2006 to December 2019, following real out-of-sample forecasts generated from January 2020 to December 2020. Sensitivity scenarios spanning January 2020 to June 2020 from ± 10 to ± 60% were analyzed. We observed what happens to the supply and demand sides, namely, GDP, tourism, capital stock, human capital, health expenditures, economic freedom, and unemployment. The results show a toll on the GDP, tourism, unemployment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2020. The recommended policy measures are public finance spending initiatives focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegrin companies. Considering all uncertainties, the rebound of the Montenegrin economy could take a few years to reach pre-COVID 19 output levels.

scholarly journals The relationship between brand attractiveness and the intent to apply for a job

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 142-157
Author(s):  
Joanna Santiago
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Business World ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategic Element ◽  
Brand Attractiveness ◽  
Opportunities For Promotion ◽  
Employer Attractiveness ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the relation between the dimensions of employer brand (EB) attractiveness and the intention to submit a job application to the organisation. An increase of competitiveness in the business world has resulted in an increased effort by organisations to improve the processes of recruitment and retention of talented professionals, as the human capital of organisations is extremely important for their growth and sustainability. Regardless of an organisation’s size, the difficulties faced in recruiting and retaining highly qualified human capital are tangible. In this sense, the research problem identifies EB as being a strategic element for attracting future employees to work for an organisation. Design/methodology/approach This study used both quantitative (a questionnaire survey) and qualitative (in-depth interviews) data to investigate the perceptions of future and current employees. Findings Evidence from 281 respondents (of which almost 60 per cent belong to the millennial generation) who participated in the quantitative study supports the multi-dimensionality of EB attractiveness, highlighting the importance of economic factors, such as an above-average salary or opportunities for promotion, which are seen to be less important to millennials when considering future job prospects. Interestingly, the results of the qualitative research for current employees show slightly different concerns, in that career progression appears to be crucial. Originality/value The study findings not only offer a basis for research on the dimensions of employer attractiveness, but also, they serve as a managerial guide towards enhancing companies’ ability to attract, retain and motivate talented individuals.

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

scholarly journals The Digital Post Ecosystem—Example of Poland in the Context of Research

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2550
Author(s):  
Anna Drab-Kurowska ◽  
Agnieszka Budziewicz-Guźlecka
Keyword(s):  
Research Question ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Postal Service ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Telecommunications Infrastructure ◽  
Digital Ecosystem ◽  
New Business ◽  
Postal Services ◽  
Telecommunications Market ◽  
Services Innovation

Rapid technological changes have forced postal operators to adapt their services to the needs of the information society, exploit new business opportunities, and pay more attention to emerging and rapidly growing direct and indirect competition. The main goal of the article is to provide an answer to the question Do we have to digitalize postal services? The objectives of the article are as follows: defining of the postal ecosystem concept; defining of postal e-services; developing an action proposal approach for the operator designated to create a digital ecosystem of the postal service. Therefore, it is necessary to survey postal operators regarding the digitalization of the economy and postal e-services. The survey should focus on individual customers, businesses and telecommunications market experts. The survey covered postal e-services supplied by the designated operator in Poland. Its assessment has been based on variables which have major impact on the perception of postal e-services. These variables include: scope of e-services, regulatory framework (security), competitiveness, telecommunications infrastructure, advancement of e-services, innovation level, and digital awareness and digital skills in the society. In order to meet these objectives, the article refers to the essence of the ecosystem as a solution to the research problem. Additionally, studies on postal e-services have been presented, which enable to develop an action proposal to strengthen the position of the postal operator in the postal ecosystem. The article is based on studies that use various research methods, such as critical analysis of scientific literature, synthesis and generalization, Delphi method, versatile benchmarking and graphic visualization. Additionally, findings of studies on e-services have been presented to cover the European Union, as well as solicit opinions of individual and business clients and telecommunications market experts in Poland. This enables to develop an action proposal designed to strengthen the position of the postal operator in the postal ecosystem. The study has delivered an answer to the research question. Thus, the authors can confirm that it is necessary to digitalize postal services.

scholarly journals One Welfare State for Europe: A Costly Utopia?

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1850020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hennessy ◽  
Thierry Warin
Keyword(s):  
Social Program ◽  
Pareto Optimum ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Social Expenditure ◽  
Asymmetric Shocks ◽  
Pareto Optimum Solution ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
Optimum Solution ◽  
Social Expenditures

This paper addresses the question of the social policy harmonization in the European Union. In adopting a common monetary policy, Europe is faced with structural and fiscal concerns, as national growth levels differ. Another possible factor in output shocks are the levels of various social expenditures in the member countries. OECD data on the level of social program expenditures in four EU countries will be compared to fluctuations in GDP growth to identify existing relationships. Significant relationships between independent social expenditure policy and GDP growth shocks suggest structural harmonization as an improvement if Europe is to take full advantage of the common market. However, the effects of expenditure levels may be easier to identify and predict than the dynamic effects of policy change. As the effects of future policy changes are more difficult to ascertain, harmonization may not consistently appear to be a Pareto-optimum solution to asymmetric shocks.

scholarly journals Measuring the UK's human capital stock

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. 36-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Jones ◽  
Blessing Chiripanhura
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock

ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINE'S HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT IN WORLD RATINGS IN CONDITIONS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryna Nochka ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
World Economic Forum ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The University

The article is devoted to the analysis tools for assessing human capital based on world rankings in the context of sustainable development. The most famous world rankings of human capital, studied by such international organizations as the World Bank, the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, the University of Groningen in collaboration with the University of California at Davis and others, are considered. Quantifying human capital as the economic and social value of a skill set is measured through an index. Each organization makes measurements according to its own method. The application of different criteria and indicators for assessing human capital at the macroeconomic level is analyzed. The considered assessment methodologies are overwhelmingly based on statistical approaches. Analyzed the position of Ukraine in the world rankings in recent years in dynamics. It has been confirmed that these international ratings can be considered as a reflection of the state of human capital in Ukraine. Revealed quite high rating positions of Ukraine in comparison with other countries. The results allow us to conclude that there is insufficient government funding for the development of human capital. It is concluded that Ukraine needs to improve the quality of human capital as a leading factor in increasing the efficiency of the country's economy in the context of sustainable development. The study showed that the use of high-quality, highly qualified human capital leads to an improvement in the country's position in the world rankings.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN THE MANAGEMENT OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ENTERPRISE

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 199-203
Author(s):  
Tamara A. Samoyluk ◽  
Anastasia S. Popova ◽  
Aelita V. Shaburova
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Main Factor

In a market economy, the competitiveness of an enterprise is ensured by the introduction of innovations. In order to remain innovative, enterprises need high-quality human resources. Investments in human resources, as the main factor of innovative growth, determine the ability of employees to transform their existing knowledge, skills and abilities into high-tech products, highly qualified services.

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