scholarly journals Application of artificial neural networks to predict the COVID-19 outbreak

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Reza Niazkar ◽  
Majid Niazkar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Relative Errors ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Abstract Background Millions of people have been infected worldwide in the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we aim to propose fourteen prediction models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the COVID-19 outbreak for policy makers. Methods The ANN-based models were utilized to estimate the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China, Japan, Singapore, Iran, Italy, South Africa and United States of America. These models exploit historical records of confirmed cases, while their main difference is the number of days that they assume to have impact on the estimation process. The COVID-19 data were divided into a train part and a test part. The former was used to train the ANN models, while the latter was utilized to compare the purposes. The data analysis shows not only significant fluctuations in the daily confirmed cases but also different ranges of total confirmed cases observed in the time interval considered. Results Based on the obtained results, the ANN-based model that takes into account the previous 14 days outperforms the other ones. This comparison reveals the importance of considering the maximum incubation period in predicting the COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the ranges of determination coefficients indicates that the estimated results for Italy are the best one. Moreover, the predicted results for Iran achieved the ranges of [0.09, 0.15] and [0.21, 0.36] for the mean absolute relative errors and normalized root mean square errors, respectively, which were the best ranges obtained for these criteria among different countries. Conclusion Based on the achieved results, the ANN-based model that takes into account the previous fourteen days for prediction is suggested to predict daily confirmed cases, particularly in countries that have experienced the first peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study has not only proved the applicability of ANN-based model for prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak, but also showed that considering incubation period of SARS-COV-2 in prediction models may generate more accurate estimations.

scholarly journals Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Accurate Prediction of Thermal and Rheological Properties of Nanofluids

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behzad Vaferi
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Thermophysical Properties ◽  
Convective Heat Transfer Coefficient ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Nanofluids have recently been considered as one of the most popular working fluid in heat transfer and fluid mechanics. Accurate estimation of thermophysical properties of nanofluids is required for the investigation of their heat transfer performance. Thermal conductivity coefficient, convective heat transfer coefficient, and viscosity are some the most important thermophysical properties that directly influence on the application of nanofluids. The aim of the present chapter is to develop and validate artificial neural networks (ANNs) to estimate these thermophysical properties with acceptable accuracy. Some simple and easy measurable parameters including type of nanoparticle and base fluid, temperature and pressure, size and concentration of nanoparticles, etc. are used as independent variables of the ANN approaches. The predictive performance of the developed ANN approaches is validated with both experimental data and available empirical correlations. Various statistical indices including mean square errors (MSE), root mean square errors (RMSE), average absolute relative deviation percent (AARD%), and regression coefficient (R2) are used for numerical evaluation of accuracy of the developed ANN models. Results confirm that the developed ANN models can be regarded as a practical tool for studying the behavior of those industrial applications, which have nanofluids as operating fluid.

Prediction of Bending Beam Rheometer Test Outputs Using Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 821 ◽  
pp. 500-505
Author(s):  
Mohammad Fuad Aljarrah ◽  
Mohammad Ali Khasawneh ◽  
Aslam Ali Al-Omari ◽  
Mohammad Emad Alshorman
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Testing Time ◽  
Bending Beam Rheometer ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Creep Stiffness ◽  
Artificial Neural

The major objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of using Artificial Neural Networks in creating prediction models capable of estimating Bending Beam Rheometer outputs; namely creep stiffness, and m-value based on test temperature, modifier content; in our case waste vegetable oil, and testing time interval. A feedforward backpropagation neural network with Bayesian Regulation training algorithm and an SSE performance function was implemented. It was found that the neural network model shows high predictive powers with training and testing performance of 99.8% and 99.2% respectively. Plots between laboratory obtained values and neural network predicted outputs were also considered, and a strong correlation between the two methods was concluded. Therefore, it was reasonable to state that using neural networks to build prediction models in order to find BBR test values is justified.

scholarly journals Yield prediction of ‘Prata Anã’ and ‘BRS Platina’ banana plants by artificial neural networks1

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Vinícius Castro Guimarães ◽  
Sérgio Luiz Rodrigues Donato ◽  
Ignacio Aspiazú ◽  
Alcinei Mistico Azevedo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
High Efficiency ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Yield Prediction ◽  
Average Mass ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Mean Square Errors

ABSTRACT Prediction models may contribute to data analysis and decision-making in the management of a crop. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of predicting the yield of ‘Prata-Anã’ and ‘BRS Platina’ banana plants by means of artificial neural networks, as well as to determine the most important morphological descriptors for this purpose. The following characteristics were measured: plant height; perimeter of the pseudostem at the ground level, at 30 cm and 100 cm; number of live leaves at harvest; stalk mass, length and diameter; number of hands and fruits; bunches and hands masses; hands average mass; and ratio between the stalk and bunch masses. The data were submitted to artificial neural networks analysis using the R software. The best adjustments were obtained with two and three neurons at the intermediate layer, respectively for ‘Prata-Anã’ and ‘BRS Platina’. These models presented the lowest mean square errors, which correspond to the higher proximity between the predicted and the real data, and, therefore, a higher efficiency of the networks in the yield prediction. By the coefficient of determination, the best adjustments were found for ‘Prata-Anã’ (R² = 0.99 for all the network compositions), while, for ‘BRS Platina’, the data adjustment enabled an R² with values between 0.97 and 1.00, approximately. Yield predictions for ‘Prata-Anã’ and ‘BRS Platina’ were obtained with high efficiency by using artificial neural networks.

scholarly journals Comparison study of CFD and artificial neural networks in predicting temperature fields induced by natural convention in a square enclosure

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (6 Part A) ◽  
pp. 3481-3492
Author(s):  
Shiyu Zhou ◽  
Xiaoping Liu ◽  
Guangyue Du ◽  
Chuanze Liu ◽  
Yucheng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Natural Convection ◽  
Classical Problem ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Relative Errors ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Natural convection in an enclosure is a classical problem in heat transfer field. In this study, natural convection induced by the heat source in the enclosure is studied with two analysis methods, i. e. CFD and artificial neural networks (ANN). The heat transfer in the enclosure is an unsteady process. During this process, the temperature fields in the enclosure are changing with time. The vertical temperature field of y = 0 at one moment is picked up for investigation. Firstly, FLUENT software which is a simulation program of CFD is adopted to simulate the temperature fields under different computation conditions. Then part of the simulation condition?s temperature data is picked for training an ANN model and the rest of data is used for validating the ANN model. It has been found from the comparison between the CFD simulation and ANN prediction that the two results have a good agreement with each other. In the comparison, the max relative errors are around 12%, mean relative errors are around 0.3%, mean square errors are around 0.6%, values of absolute fraction of variance are all not less than 0.99. The results demonstrated that the ANN prediction have enough accuracy.

scholarly journals Predicting Bus Travel Times in Washington, DC Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Arhin ◽  
Babin Manandhar ◽  
Hamdiat Baba Adam ◽  
Adam Gatiba
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Washington Dc ◽  
Travel Times ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Bus Stops ◽  
Quasi Newton

Washington, DC is ranked second among cities in terms of highest public transit commuters in the United States, with approximately 9% of the working population using the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) Metrobuses to commute. Deducing accurate travel times of these metrobuses is an important task for transit authorities to provide reliable service to its patrons. This study, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), developed prediction models for transit buses to assist decision-makers to improve service quality and patronage. For this study, we used six months of Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) data for six Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) bus routes operating in Washington, DC. We developed regression models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for predicting travel times of buses for different peak periods (AM, Mid-Day and PM). Our analysis included variables such as number of served bus stops, length of route between bus stops, average number of passengers in the bus, average dwell time of buses, and number of intersections between bus stops. We obtained ANN models for travel times by using approximation technique incorporating two separate algorithms: Quasi-Newton and Levenberg-Marquardt. The training strategy for neural network models involved feed forward and errorback processes that minimized the generated errors. We also evaluated the models with a Comparison of the Normalized Squared Errors (NSE). From the results, we observed that the travel times of buses and the dwell times at bus stops generally increased over time of the day. We gathered travel time equations for buses for the AM, Mid-Day and PM Peaks. The lowest NSE for the AM, Mid-Day and PM Peak periods corresponded to training processes using Quasi-Newton algorithm, which had 3, 2 and 5 perceptron layers, respectively. These prediction models could be adapted by transit agencies to provide the patrons with accurate travel time information at bus stops or online.

Bankruptcy Prediction Models: A Bet on Artificial Neural Networks

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-50
Author(s):  
Ana Isabel Velasco Fernández ◽  
◽  
Ricardo José Rejas Muslera ◽  
Juan Padilla Fernández-Vega ◽  
María Isabel Cepeda González
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2332
Author(s):  
Cecilia Martinez-Castillo ◽  
Gonzalo Astray ◽  
Juan Carlos Mejuto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

scholarly journals Over-parameterisation, a major obstacle to the use of artificial neural networks in hydrology?

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 693-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gaume ◽  
R. Gosset
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract. Recently Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Networks (FNN) have been gaining popularity for stream flow forecasting. However, despite the promising results presented in recent papers, their use is questionable. In theory, their “universal approximator‿ property guarantees that, if a sufficient number of neurons is selected, good performance of the models for interpolation purposes can be achieved. But the choice of a more complex model does not ensure a better prediction. Models with many parameters have a high capacity to fit the noise and the particularities of the calibration dataset, at the cost of diminishing their generalisation capacity. In support of the principle of model parsimony, a model selection method based on the validation performance of the models, "traditionally" used in the context of conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling, was adapted to the choice of a FFN structure. This method was applied to two different case studies: river flow prediction based on knowledge of upstream flows, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The predictive powers of the neural networks selected are compared to the results obtained with a linear model and a conceptual model (GR4j). In both case studies, the method leads to the selection of neural network structures with a limited number of neurons in the hidden layer (two or three). Moreover, the validation results of the selected FNN and of the linear model are very close. The conceptual model, specifically dedicated to rainfall-runoff modelling, appears to outperform the other two approaches. These conclusions, drawn on specific case studies using a particular evaluation method, add to the debate on the usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks in hydrology. Keywords: forecasting; stream-flow; rainfall-runoff; Artificial Neural Networks

scholarly journals Applicability of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Mechanical and Permeability Properties of Volcanic Scoria-Based Concrete

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aref M. al-Swaidani ◽  
Waed T. Khwies
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Supplementary Cementitious Material ◽  
Natural Pozzolans ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
And Performance ◽  
And Training

Numerous volcanic scoria (VS) cones are found in many places worldwide. Many of them have not yet been investigated, although few of which have been used as a supplementary cementitious material (SCM) for a long time. The use of natural pozzolans as cement replacement could be considered as a common practice in the construction industry due to the related economic, ecologic, and performance benefits. In the current paper, the effect of VS on the properties of concrete was investigated. Twenty-one concrete mixes with three w/b ratios (0.5, 0.6, and 0.7) and seven replacement levels of VS (0%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, and 35%) were produced. The investigated concrete properties were the compressive strength, the water permeability, and the concrete porosity. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used for prediction of the investigated properties. Feed-forward backpropagation neural networks have been used. The ANN models have been established by incorporation of the laboratory experimental data and by properly choosing the network architecture and training processes. This study shows that the use of ANN models provided a more accurate tool to capture the effects of five parameters (cement content, volcanic scoria content, water content, superplasticizer content, and curing time) on the investigated properties. This prediction makes it possible to design VS-based concretes for a desired strength, water impermeability, and porosity at any given age and replacement level. Some correlations between the investigated properties were derived from the analysed data. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis showed that all studied parameters have a strong effect on the investigated properties. The modification of the microstructure of VS-based cement paste has been observed, as well.

scholarly journals Basin-Scale Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature with Artificial Neural Networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 1441-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalpesh Patil ◽  
M. C. Deo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural

AbstractThe prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) on the basis of artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be viewed as complementary to numerical SST predictions, and it has fairly sustained in the recent past. However, one of its limitations is that such ANNs are site specific and do not provide simultaneous spatial information similar to the numerical schemes. In this work we have addressed this issue by presenting basin-scale SST predictions based on the operation of a very large number of individual ANNs simultaneously. The study area belongs to the basin of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) having coordinates of 30°N–30°S, 30°–120°E. The network training and testing are done on the basis of HadISST data of the past 140 yr. Monthly SST anomalies are predicted at 3813 nodes in the basin and over nine time steps into the future with more than 20 million ANN models. The network testing indicated that the prediction skill of ANNs is attractive up to certain lead times depending on the subbasin. The ANN models performed well over both the western Indian Ocean (WIO) and eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) regions up to 5 and 4 months lead time, respectively, as judged by the error statistics of the correlation coefficient and the normalized root-mean-square error. The prediction skill of the ANN models for the TIO region is found to be better than the physics-based coupled atmosphere–ocean models. It is also observed that the ANNs are capable of providing an advanced warning of the Indian Ocean dipole as well as abnormal basin warming.

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