scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2332
Author(s):  
Cecilia Martinez-Castillo ◽  
Gonzalo Astray ◽  
Juan Carlos Mejuto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

scholarly journals Modelling Using Machine Learning Models and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia Martinez-Castillo ◽  
Gonzalo Astray ◽  
Juan Carlos Mejuto
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Model ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Different machine learning models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to predict the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best machine model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best ML methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 122.6·10kJ/(m2∙day) and 113.6·10kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 201.3·10kJ/(m2∙day) and 209.4·10kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

An Improved Photosynthesis Prediction Model Based on Artificial Neural Networks Intended for Cucumber Growth Control

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 769-787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pingping Xin ◽  
Haihui Zhang ◽  
Jin Hu ◽  
Zhiyong Wang ◽  
Zhen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Photosynthetic Rate ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Rate Prediction ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract. The existing photosynthetic rate prediction models consider only a single growing season. However, a photosynthetic rate prediction model intended for full growth of crops is needed. Therefore, a photosynthetic rate prediction model based on artificial neural networks (ANN), which establishes the prediction of the entire photosynthetic process, is presented in this article. The proposed model was developed using the multi-factor photosynthetic rate data obtained by experiments on cucumber seedlings and flowering stage. The ANN model was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm. In contrast to the single-phase photosynthetic rate prediction models, in the proposed model a fusion of parameters of all growing stages was applied, whereat all growing parameters were merged into one six-dimensional input signal (temperature, CO2 concentration, light intensity, relative humidity, chlorophyll content, and growth stage). Verification of model accuracy and performance has shown that merging of growing parameters has obvious advantage. Moreover, the proposed model satisfied the requirement in terms of training error. In addition, the determination correlation between measured and estimated values was 0.9517, thus, good correlation and estimation were achieved. Besides, the test average absolute error was 1.1454, which proves a high accuracy of the proposed model. Therefore, the proposed prediction model can provide the theoretical basis for the facilities light regulation and technical support. Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Cucumber, Full growth period, Photosynthetic rate, Prediction model.

scholarly journals Predicting fire resistance ratings of timber structures using artificial neural networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-39
Author(s):  
Pham Thanh Tung ◽  
Pham Thanh Hung
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Fire Resistance ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Training Algorithms ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Wooden Floor ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables

This paper describes a method to predict the fire resistance ratings of the wooden floor assemblies using Artificial Neural Networks. Experimental data collected from the previously published reports were used to train, validate, and test the proposed ANN model. A series of model configurations were examined using different popular training algorithms to obtain the optimal structure for the model. It is shown that the proposed ANN model can successfully predict the fire resistance ratings of the wooden floor assemblies from the input variables with an average absolute error of four percent. Besides, the sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effects of the separate input parameter on the output. Results from analysis revealed that the fire resistance ratings are sensitive to the change of Applied Load (ALD) and the number of the Ceiling Finish Layer (CFL) input variables. On the other hand, the outputs are less sensitive to a variation of the Joist Type (JTY) parameter. Keywords: artificial neural networks; fire resistance; wooden floor assembly; sensitivity analysis.

scholarly journals Review of Nitrogen Compounds Prediction in Water Bodies Using Artificial Neural Networks and Other Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavitra Kumar ◽  
Sai Hin Lai ◽  
Jee Khai Wong ◽  
Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd ◽  
Md Rowshon Kamal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Nitrogen Concentration ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Quality Water ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables

The prediction of nitrogen not only assists in monitoring the nitrogen concentration in streams but also helps in optimizing the usage of fertilizers in agricultural fields. A precise prediction model guarantees the delivering of better-quality water for human use, as the operations of various water treatment plants depend on the concentration of nitrogen in streams. Considering the stochastic nature and the various hydrological variables upon which nitrogen concentration depends, a predictive model should be efficient enough to account for all the complexities of nature in the prediction of nitrogen concentration. For two decades, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and other models (such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, hybrid model, etc.), used for predicting different complex hydrological parameters, have proved efficient and accurate up to a certain extent. In this review paper, such prediction models, created for predicting nitrogen concentration, are critically analyzed, comparing their accuracy and input variables. Moreover, future research works aiming to predict nitrogen using advanced techniques and more reliable and appropriate input variables are also discussed.

scholarly journals Prediction of nitrate concentration in Danube River water by using artificial neural networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 2119-2132
Author(s):  
Lidija J. Stamenković ◽  
Sanja Mrazovac Kurilić ◽  
Vladanka Presburger Ulniković
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
River Water ◽  
Nitrate Concentration ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Quality Parameters ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables

Abstract This paper describes the development of a model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) which aims to predict the concentration of nitrates in river water. Another 26 water quality parameters were also monitored and used as input parameters. The models were trained and tested with data from ten monitoring stations on the Danube River, located in its course through Serbia, for the period from 2011 to 2016. Multilayer perceptron (MLP), standard three-layer network is used to develop models and two input variable selection techniques are used to reduce the number of input variables. The obtained results have shown the ability of ANN to predict the nitrate concentration in both developed models with a value of mean absolute error of 0.53 and 0.42 mg/L for the test data. Also, the application of IVS has contributed to reduce the number of input variables and to increase the performance of the model, especially in the case of variance inflation factor (VIF) analysis where the estimation of multicollinearity among variables and the elimination of excessive variables significantly influenced the prediction abilities of the ANN model, r – 0.91.

Bankruptcy Prediction Models: A Bet on Artificial Neural Networks

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-50
Author(s):  
Ana Isabel Velasco Fernández ◽  
◽  
Ricardo José Rejas Muslera ◽  
Juan Padilla Fernández-Vega ◽  
María Isabel Cepeda González
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

Prediction Modeling of PM-10 in Chiangmai City Moat by Using Artificial Neural Networks

2015 ◽  
Vol 781 ◽  
pp. 628-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rati Wongsathan ◽  
Issaravuth Seedadan ◽  
Metawat Kavilkrue
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Chiang Mai ◽  
Adverse Health Effects ◽  
High Pollution ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Pm 10 ◽  
Respiratory Conditions

A mathematical prediction model has been developed in order to detect particles with a diameter of 10 micrometers or less (PM-10) that are responsible for adverse health effects because of their ability to cause serious respiratory conditions in areas of high pollution such as Chiang Mai City moat area. The prediction model is based on 3 types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), including Multi-layer perceptron (MLP-NN), Radial basis function (RBF-NN), and hybrid of RBF and Genetic algorithm (RBF-NN-GA). The model uses 8 input variables to predict PM-10, consisting of 4 air pollution substances ( CO, O3, NO2 and SO2) and 4 meteorological variables related PM-10 (wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity). These 3 types of ANN have proved efficient instrument in predicting the PM-10. However, the performance of RBF-NN was superior in comparison with MLP-NN and RBF-NN-GA respectively.

scholarly journals Predicting Sooting Propensity of Oxygenated Fuels Using Artificial Neural Networks

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1070
Author(s):  
Abdul Gani Abdul Jameel
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Functional Groups ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Oh Groups ◽  
Unseen Data ◽  
Learning Capabilities ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Oxygenated Fuels

The self-learning capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANNs) from large datasets have led to their deployment in the prediction of various physical and chemical phenomena. In the present work, an ANN model was developed to predict the yield sooting index (YSI) of oxygenated fuels using the functional group approach. A total of 265 pure compounds comprising six chemical classes, namely paraffins (n and iso), olefins, naphthenes, aromatics, alcohols, and ethers, were dis-assembled into eight constituent functional groups, namely paraffinic CH3 groups, paraffinic CH2 groups, paraffinic CH groups, olefinic –CH=CH2 groups, naphthenic CH-CH2 groups, aromatic C-CH groups, alcoholic OH groups, and ether O groups. These functional groups, in addition to molecular weight and branching index, were used as inputs to develop the ANN model. A neural network with two hidden layers was used to train the model using the Levenberg–Marquardt (ML) training algorithm. The developed model was tested with 15% of the random unseen data points. A regression coefficient (R2) of 0.99 was obtained when the experimental values were compared with the predicted YSI values from the test set. An average error of 3.4% was obtained, which is less than the experimental uncertainty associated with most reported YSI measurements. The developed model can be used for YSI prediction of hydrocarbon fuels containing alcohol and ether-based oxygenates as additives with a high degree of accuracy.

scholarly journals Use of Nondestructive Testing of Ultrasound and Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate Compressive Strength of Concrete

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Fernando A. N. Silva ◽  
João M. P. Q. Delgado ◽  
Rosely S. Cavalcanti ◽  
António C. Azevedo ◽  
Ana S. Guimarães ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Compressive Strength ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Cement Ratio ◽  
Water Cement Ratio ◽  
Artificial Neural

The work presents the results of an experimental campaign carried out on concrete elements in order to investigate the potential of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to estimate the compressive strength based on relevant parameters, such as the water–cement ratio, aggregate–cement ratio, age of testing, and percentage cement/metakaolin ratios (5% and 10%). We prepared 162 cylindrical concrete specimens with dimensions of 10 cm in diameter and 20 cm in height and 27 prismatic specimens with cross sections measuring 25 and 50 cm in length, with 9 different concrete mixture proportions. A longitudinal transducer with a frequency of 54 kHz was used to measure the ultrasonic velocities. An ANN model was developed, different ANN configurations were tested and compared to identify the best ANN model. Using this model, it was possible to assess the contribution of each input variable to the compressive strength of the tested concretes. The results indicate an excellent performance of the ANN model developed to predict compressive strength from the input parameters studied, with an average error less than 5%. Together, the water–cement ratio and the percentage of metakaolin were shown to be the most influential factors for the compressive strength value predicted by the developed ANN model.

scholarly journals Over-parameterisation, a major obstacle to the use of artificial neural networks in hydrology?

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 693-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gaume ◽  
R. Gosset
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract. Recently Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Networks (FNN) have been gaining popularity for stream flow forecasting. However, despite the promising results presented in recent papers, their use is questionable. In theory, their “universal approximator‿ property guarantees that, if a sufficient number of neurons is selected, good performance of the models for interpolation purposes can be achieved. But the choice of a more complex model does not ensure a better prediction. Models with many parameters have a high capacity to fit the noise and the particularities of the calibration dataset, at the cost of diminishing their generalisation capacity. In support of the principle of model parsimony, a model selection method based on the validation performance of the models, "traditionally" used in the context of conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling, was adapted to the choice of a FFN structure. This method was applied to two different case studies: river flow prediction based on knowledge of upstream flows, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The predictive powers of the neural networks selected are compared to the results obtained with a linear model and a conceptual model (GR4j). In both case studies, the method leads to the selection of neural network structures with a limited number of neurons in the hidden layer (two or three). Moreover, the validation results of the selected FNN and of the linear model are very close. The conceptual model, specifically dedicated to rainfall-runoff modelling, appears to outperform the other two approaches. These conclusions, drawn on specific case studies using a particular evaluation method, add to the debate on the usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks in hydrology. Keywords: forecasting; stream-flow; rainfall-runoff; Artificial Neural Networks

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