scholarly journals Predicting Bus Travel Times in Washington, DC Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Arhin ◽  
Babin Manandhar ◽  
Hamdiat Baba Adam ◽  
Adam Gatiba
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Washington Dc ◽  
Travel Times ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Bus Stops ◽  
Quasi Newton

Washington, DC is ranked second among cities in terms of highest public transit commuters in the United States, with approximately 9% of the working population using the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) Metrobuses to commute. Deducing accurate travel times of these metrobuses is an important task for transit authorities to provide reliable service to its patrons. This study, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), developed prediction models for transit buses to assist decision-makers to improve service quality and patronage. For this study, we used six months of Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) data for six Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) bus routes operating in Washington, DC. We developed regression models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for predicting travel times of buses for different peak periods (AM, Mid-Day and PM). Our analysis included variables such as number of served bus stops, length of route between bus stops, average number of passengers in the bus, average dwell time of buses, and number of intersections between bus stops. We obtained ANN models for travel times by using approximation technique incorporating two separate algorithms: Quasi-Newton and Levenberg-Marquardt. The training strategy for neural network models involved feed forward and errorback processes that minimized the generated errors. We also evaluated the models with a Comparison of the Normalized Squared Errors (NSE). From the results, we observed that the travel times of buses and the dwell times at bus stops generally increased over time of the day. We gathered travel time equations for buses for the AM, Mid-Day and PM Peaks. The lowest NSE for the AM, Mid-Day and PM Peak periods corresponded to training processes using Quasi-Newton algorithm, which had 3, 2 and 5 perceptron layers, respectively. These prediction models could be adapted by transit agencies to provide the patrons with accurate travel time information at bus stops or online.

Prediction of Bending Beam Rheometer Test Outputs Using Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 821 ◽  
pp. 500-505
Author(s):  
Mohammad Fuad Aljarrah ◽  
Mohammad Ali Khasawneh ◽  
Aslam Ali Al-Omari ◽  
Mohammad Emad Alshorman
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Testing Time ◽  
Bending Beam Rheometer ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Creep Stiffness ◽  
Artificial Neural

The major objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of using Artificial Neural Networks in creating prediction models capable of estimating Bending Beam Rheometer outputs; namely creep stiffness, and m-value based on test temperature, modifier content; in our case waste vegetable oil, and testing time interval. A feedforward backpropagation neural network with Bayesian Regulation training algorithm and an SSE performance function was implemented. It was found that the neural network model shows high predictive powers with training and testing performance of 99.8% and 99.2% respectively. Plots between laboratory obtained values and neural network predicted outputs were also considered, and a strong correlation between the two methods was concluded. Therefore, it was reasonable to state that using neural networks to build prediction models in order to find BBR test values is justified.

scholarly journals Application of artificial neural networks to predict the COVID-19 outbreak

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Reza Niazkar ◽  
Majid Niazkar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Relative Errors ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Abstract Background Millions of people have been infected worldwide in the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we aim to propose fourteen prediction models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the COVID-19 outbreak for policy makers. Methods The ANN-based models were utilized to estimate the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China, Japan, Singapore, Iran, Italy, South Africa and United States of America. These models exploit historical records of confirmed cases, while their main difference is the number of days that they assume to have impact on the estimation process. The COVID-19 data were divided into a train part and a test part. The former was used to train the ANN models, while the latter was utilized to compare the purposes. The data analysis shows not only significant fluctuations in the daily confirmed cases but also different ranges of total confirmed cases observed in the time interval considered. Results Based on the obtained results, the ANN-based model that takes into account the previous 14 days outperforms the other ones. This comparison reveals the importance of considering the maximum incubation period in predicting the COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the ranges of determination coefficients indicates that the estimated results for Italy are the best one. Moreover, the predicted results for Iran achieved the ranges of [0.09, 0.15] and [0.21, 0.36] for the mean absolute relative errors and normalized root mean square errors, respectively, which were the best ranges obtained for these criteria among different countries. Conclusion Based on the achieved results, the ANN-based model that takes into account the previous fourteen days for prediction is suggested to predict daily confirmed cases, particularly in countries that have experienced the first peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study has not only proved the applicability of ANN-based model for prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak, but also showed that considering incubation period of SARS-COV-2 in prediction models may generate more accurate estimations.

scholarly journals Modelling and prediction of water current using artificial neural networks: A case study of the commodore channel

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 942-952
Author(s):  
O.T. Badejo ◽  
O.T. Jegede ◽  
H.O. Kayode ◽  
O.O. Durodola ◽  
S.O. Akintoye
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Water Current ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Coastal Inlets ◽  
Matlab Programming

Water current modelling and prediction techniques along coastal inlets have attracted growing concern in recent years. This is largely so because water current component continues to be a major contributor to movement of sediments, tracers and pollutants, and to a whole range of offshore applications in engineering, environmental observations, exploration and oceanography. However, most research works are lacking adequate methods for developing precise prediction models along the commodore channel in Lagos State. This research work presents water current prediction using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The Back Propagation (BP) technique with feed forward architecture and optimized training algorithm known as Levenbergq-Marquardt was used to develop a Neural Network Water Current Prediction model-(NNWLM) in a MATLAB programming environment. It was passed through model sensitivity analysis and afterwards tested with data from the Commodore channel (Lagos Lagoon). The result revealed prediction accuracy ranging from 0.012 to 0.045 in terms of Mean Square Error (MSE) and 0.80 to 0.83 in terms of correlation coefficient (R-value). With this high performance, the Neural network developed in this work can be used as a veritable tool for water current prediction along the Commodore channel and in extension a wide variety of coastal engineering and development, covering sediment management program: dredging, sand bypassing, beach-contingency plans, and protection of beaches vulnerable to storm erosion and monitoring and prediction of long-term water current variations in coastal inlets. Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Commodore Channel, Coastal Inlet, Water Current, Back Propagation.

Comparison of Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network based Bankruptcy Prediction Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Easwaran Iyer ◽  
Vinod Kumar Murti
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Artificial Neural

Logistic Regression is one of the popular techniques used for bankruptcy prediction and its popularity is attributed due to its robust nature in terms of data characteristics. Recent developments have explored Artificial Neural Networks for bankruptcy prediction. In this study, a paired sample of 174 cases of Indian listed manufacturing companies have been used for building bankruptcy prediction models based on Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Networks. The time period of study was year 2000 through year 2009. The classification accuracies have been compared for built models and for hold-out sample of 44 paired cases. In analysis and hold-out samples, both the models have shown appreciable classification results, three years prior to bankruptcy. Thus, both the models can be used (by banks, SEBI etc.) for bankruptcy prediction in Indian Context, however, Artificial Neural Network has shown marginal supremacy over Logistic Regression.

Bankruptcy Prediction Models: A Bet on Artificial Neural Networks

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-50
Author(s):  
Ana Isabel Velasco Fernández ◽  
◽  
Ricardo José Rejas Muslera ◽  
Juan Padilla Fernández-Vega ◽  
María Isabel Cepeda González
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals The Budapest Amyloid Predictor and Its Applications

Biomolecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 500
Author(s):  
László Keresztes ◽  
Evelin Szögi ◽  
Bálint Varga ◽  
Viktor Farkas ◽  
András Perczel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
User Needs ◽  
Computational Technique ◽  
Linear Support Vector Machine ◽  
Β Sheets ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Amorphous Aggregation

The amyloid state of proteins is widely studied with relevance to neurology, biochemistry, and biotechnology. In contrast with nearly amorphous aggregation, the amyloid state has a well-defined structure, consisting of parallel and antiparallel β-sheets in a periodically repeated formation. The understanding of the amyloid state is growing with the development of novel molecular imaging tools, like cryogenic electron microscopy. Sequence-based amyloid predictors were developed, mainly using artificial neural networks (ANNs) as the underlying computational technique. From a good neural-network-based predictor, it is a very difficult task to identify the attributes of the input amino acid sequence, which imply the decision of the network. Here, we present a linear Support Vector Machine (SVM)-based predictor for hexapeptides with correctness higher than 84%, i.e., it is at least as good as the best published ANN-based tools. Unlike artificial neural networks, the decisions of the linear SVMs are much easier to analyze and, from a good predictor, we can infer rich biochemical knowledge. In the Budapest Amyloid Predictor webserver the user needs to input a hexapeptide, and the server outputs a prediction for the input plus the 6 × 19 = 114 distance-1 neighbors of the input hexapeptide.

scholarly journals Non-Destructive Micromagnetic Determination of Hardness and Case Hardening Depth Using Linear Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks

Metals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Rahel Jedamski ◽  
Jérémy Epp
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Case Hardening ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Non Destructive

Non-destructive determination of workpiece properties after heat treatment is of great interest in the context of quality control in production but also for prevention of damage in subsequent grinding process. Micromagnetic methods offer good possibilities, but must first be calibrated with reference analyses on known states. This work compares the accuracy and reliability of different calibration methods for non-destructive evaluation of carburizing depth and surface hardness of carburized steel. Linear regression analysis is used in comparison with new methods based on artificial neural networks. The comparison shows a slight advantage of neural network method and potential for further optimization of both approaches. The quality of the results can be influenced, among others, by the number of teaching steps for the neural network, whereas more teaching steps does not always lead to an improvement of accuracy for conditions not included in the initial calibration.

scholarly journals Optimal Artificial Neural Network Type Selection Method for Usage in Smart House Systems

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Vasyl Teslyuk ◽  
Artem Kazarian ◽  
Natalia Kryvinska ◽  
Ivan Tsmots
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Optimization Criterion ◽  
Fuzzy Input ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Smart House ◽  
Artificial Neural

In the process of the “smart” house systems work, there is a need to process fuzzy input data. The models based on the artificial neural networks are used to process fuzzy input data from the sensors. However, each artificial neural network has a certain advantage and, with a different accuracy, allows one to process different types of data and generate control signals. To solve this problem, a method of choosing the optimal type of artificial neural network has been proposed. It is based on solving an optimization problem, where the optimization criterion is an error of a certain type of artificial neural network determined to control the corresponding subsystem of a “smart” house. In the process of learning different types of artificial neural networks, the same historical input data are used. The research presents the dependencies between the types of neural networks, the number of inner layers of the artificial neural network, the number of neurons on each inner layer, the error of the settings parameters calculation of the relative expected results.

scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2332
Author(s):  
Cecilia Martinez-Castillo ◽  
Gonzalo Astray ◽  
Juan Carlos Mejuto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

Performance Estimation of Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Using Artificial Neural Network

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Rafe Biswas ◽  
Melvin D. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Fuel Cell ◽  
Direct Methanol Fuel Cell ◽  
Cell Voltage ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Direct Methanol ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Methanol Fuel Cell

A direct methanol fuel cell can convert chemical energy in the form of a liquid fuel into electrical energy to power devices, while simultaneously operating at low temperatures and producing virtually no greenhouse gases. Since the direct methanol fuel cell performance characteristics are inherently nonlinear and complex, it can be postulated that artificial neural networks represent a marked improvement in performance prediction capabilities. Artificial neural networks have long been used as a tool in predictive modeling. In this work, an artificial neural network is employed to predict the performance of a direct methanol fuel cell under various operating conditions. This work on the experimental analysis of a uniquely designed fuel cell and the computational modeling of a unique algorithm has not been found in prior literature outside of the authors and their affiliations. The fuel cell input variables for the performance analysis consist not only of the methanol concentration, fuel cell temperature, and current density, but also the number of cells and anode flow rate. The addition of the two typically unconventional variables allows for a more distinctive model when compared to prior neural network models. The key performance indicator of our neural network model is the cell voltage, which is an average voltage across the stack and ranges from 0 to 0:8V. Experimental studies were carried out using DMFC stacks custom-fabricated, with a membrane electrode assembly consisting of an additional unique liquid barrier layer to minimize water loss through the cathode side to the atmosphere. To determine the best fit of the model to the experimental cell voltage data, the model is trained using two different second order training algorithms: OWO-Newton and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM). The OWO-Newton algorithm has a topology that is slightly different from the topology of the LM algorithm by the employment of bypass weights. It can be concluded that the application of artificial neural networks can rapidly construct a predictive model of the cell voltage for a wide range of operating conditions with an accuracy of 10−3 to 10−4. The results were comparable with existing literature. The added dimensionality of the number of cells provided insight into scalability where the coefficient of the determination of the results for the two multi-cell stacks using LM algorithm were up to 0:9998. The model was also evaluated with empirical data of a single-cell stack.

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