Conditional survival for patients with colon cancer: An analysis of National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) trials C-03 through C-06
6005 Background: Survival for cancer patients is usually only reported as survival from time of diagnosis to some time landmark (e.g., 5 yrs). For pts surviving one or more years after diagnosis, however, their survival probability changes, and is more accurately depicted by conditional survival (CS), defined as the probability of surviving for an additional fixed time interval given that the pt has already survived a period of time. The purpose of this study was to determine the 5-yr CS of colon cancer pts in 4 NSABP trials. Methods: We analyzed long-term overall survival data from the 5587 colon cancer pts who were enrolled in fluorouracil (or equivalent) arms of NSABP trials C-03 through C-06. We computed observed 5-yr overall CS for pts who had already survived without disease from 0 to 5 yrs after diagnosis, and stratified the results by age, sex, race, stage, number of positive nodes, number of nodes resected, tumor location, and performance status. Results: The Table below shows the 5-yr overall CS for all pts and for selected subgroups for different survival times since diagnosis. As disease-free survival time since diagnosis increased, 5-yr observed overall CS increased from 76% to 90% at 5 yrs. For pts under age 50, CS increased from 78% to 95% at 5 yrs, but for pts > 70 yrs, CS remained fairly constant (71–82%). For pts with > 10 positive nodes, CS increased from 37% to 81% at 5 yrs, but did not change appreciably for node-negative pts (87–92%). Dukes’ C pts saw an increase in CS from 68% to 88% at 5 yrs, while CS for Dukes’ B pts did not change appreciably. Conclusion: Projected survival probability generally increases with time for colon cancer pts who remain disease-free for a period of time after diagnosis, and conditional survival can provide more informative prognostic information for these pts. An additional effect is that prognostic factors that are important at baseline become less important for conditional survival as the disease-free period increases. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.