Optimizing formulary decisions.
14 Background: As medication prices rise, the sustainability of health care systems has been increasingly questioned. Health technology assessment (HTA) could be employed to maximize value when budgets are limited. Methods: The pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR) is an evidence-based, cancer drug review process that guides formulary decision-making. As of 10/30/16, data from all 93 reviews and economic guidances were abstracted for price of medication, total health care cost per patient, cost-utility provided by the submitter, and the re-analysis by pCODR. Regression analysis was employed to identify correlations. Expected use of therapy was estimated employing mortality data from the Canadian Cancer Society. An optimal formulary was then developed, with value for money as the primary concern. Results: Of the 93 reviews, 11 were not finalized, 3 were withdrawn, and 1 was suspended. 4 reviews were excluded since the base-case was ambiguous. Of included reviews, 13% were recommended for funding, 66% were recommended conditional on improved cost-effectiveness, and 22% were rejected. The median drug price per 28-day cycle was $7,567 (range $2,800-$18,435), with no annual difference from 2012-2016 (p=0.49). The median best-estimate of cost-utility was $188,537/QALY (IQR $127,399/QALY) with a median net increase in health system cost of $66,069/patient (IQR $90,466). The median difference between pCODR’s best estimate and the submitter’s was $61,240/QALY (IQR $73,656/QALY). The submitter’s estimate of cost effectiveness was correlated with pCODRs assessment (R² = 0.65, p<0.01). Cost per 28-day cycle was a weak predictor of value (R² = 0.01, p<0.01), and not of health system cost (R² = 0.17, p=0.11). In the Canadian context, funding all efficacious medications would require a total of $5.91 billion producing 31,705 QALYs, annually. Funding the system with $1.12 billion for new medicines by first-come-first-served principle, yields 5,966 QALYs over 16 drugs, annually. By prioritizing based on value, $1 billion allows for funding of 22 drugs producing 9,665 QALYs, annually. $2 billion would increase annual QALYs to 15,792 over 26 drugs. Conclusions: Price of medications should not be used as a heuristic for value. An optimized formulary requires practical deployment of HTA.