Impact of metastasectomy on progression free and overall survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma: Analysis of the REMARCC registry.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 753-753
Author(s):  
Margaret Frances Meagher ◽  
Ricardo Autorino ◽  
Maximilian Kriegmair ◽  
Maria Carmen Mir ◽  
Jose Rubio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Renal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Renal Cell ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

753 Background: The role of metastasectomy has been in flux as treatment paradigms for management of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) have shifted. We examined outcomes of surgical metastasectomy stratified in the setting of different mRCC risk groups. Methods: Multicenter retrospective analysis of patients from the REMARCC (REgistry of MetAstatic RCC) database. The cohort was subdivided by Motzer RCC criteria (low, intermediate, and high risk), and impact of metastasectomy was analyzed via multivariable analysis (MVA) and Kaplan Meier analyses (KMA). Primary outcome was progression free survival (PFS) and secondary outcome was overall survival (OS). Results: 438 patients (46 low risk, 262 intermediate risk, 140 high risk) with median follow-up 16 months were analyzed. Metastasectomy was performed in 18 (39%), 63 (24%), and 32 (23%) of low, intermediate and high risk groups (p=0.04). Risk groups differed significantly with respect to ECOG performance status (p<0.001), metastases at diagnosis (low 1.72, intermediate 3.49, high 6.45, p<0.001), hemoglobin (p<0.001) and LDH (p<0.001). MVA for PFS revealed age (OR=1.03, p=0.05), BMI (OR=1.05, p=0.01), and higher risk category [vs. low (referent) intermediate OR=7.4, p<0.001, high OR=3.4, p=0.01] to be independent risk factors. MVA for OS revealed age (OR=1.03, p=0.02), BMI (OR=1.06, p=0.01), and higher risk category [low (referent) vs. intermediate OR=2.8, p=0.03, high OR=2.3, p=0.01] to be independent risk factors. KMA for PFS demonstrated that metastasectomy was associated with longer PFS in intermediate (24.0 vs. 6.7 months, p=0.01) but not high risk (4.2 vs. 4.0 months, p=0.58) and low risk (p=0.51) groups. KMA for OS demonstrated that metastasectomy was associated with longer median OS in the intermediate (56.9 vs. 29.3 months, p=0.01) and high risk (18.2 vs. 10.5, p=0.01), but not low risk (p=0.21) groups. Conclusions: Receipt of metastasectomy was associated with improved PFS in intermediate risk and improved OS in intermediate and high risk mRCC patients. These findings challenge prevailing assumptions about utility of metastasectomy. Further investigation is requisite to refine criteria for employment.

Renal Cell Carcinoma Recurrence After Nephrectomy for Localized Disease: Predicting Survival From Time of Recurrence

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (19) ◽  
pp. 3101-3106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott E. Eggener ◽  
Ofer Yossepowitch ◽  
Joseph A. Pettus ◽  
Mark E. Snyder ◽  
Robert J. Motzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Renal Cell ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Median Survival Time ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Localized Disease

Purpose Prognostic factors for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) are well established. However, the risk profile is unknown for patients with recurrent RCC after a nephrectomy for localized disease. Patients and Methods From January 1989 to July 2005, we identified patients with localized RCC treated by nephrectomy who subsequently developed recurrent disease. We applied a validated prognostic scoring system previously developed for patients with metastatic RCC. Each patient was given a total risk score of 0 to 5, with one point for each of five prognostic variables (recurrence < 12 months after nephrectomy, serum calcium > 10 mg/dL, hemoglobin < lower limit of normal, lactate dehydrogenase > 1.5× upper limit of normal, and Karnofsky performance status < 80%). Patients were categorized into low- (score = 0), intermediate- (score = 1 to 2), and high-risk subgroups (score = 3 to 5). Results Our final cohort included 118 patients, with a median survival time of 21 months from the time of recurrence. Median follow-up time for survivors was 27 months. Overall survival was strongly associated with risk group category (P < .0001). Low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk criteria were fulfilled in 34%, 50%, and 16% of patients, respectively. Median survival time for low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients was 76, 25, and 6 months, respectively. Two-year overall survival rates for low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients were 88% (95% CI, 77% to 99%), 51% (95% CI, 37% to 65%), and 11% (95% CI, 0% to 24%), respectively. Conclusion At disease recurrence after nephrectomy for localized disease, a scoring system based on objective clinical and laboratory data provides meaningful risk stratification for both patient counseling and clinical trial entry.

Use of preoperative erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) to predict overall survival in localized renal cell carcinoma following radical nephrectomy.

2011 ◽  
Vol 29 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 361-361
Author(s):  
V. A. Master ◽  
O. Kucuk ◽  
W. Harris ◽  
B. Cross ◽  
A. Abbasi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Sedimentation Rate ◽  
Renal Cell ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Erythrocyte Sedimentation ◽  
Localized Renal Cell Carcinoma

361 Background: Systemic inflammation has been associated with increased tumor grade and disease progression in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) reflects systemic inflammation in other disease states. However, the relationship between ESR and survival remains unclear in localized RCC following potentially curative nephrectomy. We hypothesized that preoperative ESR would be a prognostic indicator of overall survival in localized RCC following radical nephrectomy. Methods: 167 patients undergoing nephrectomy for localized RCC had ESR measured preoperatively. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed and used to determine the area under the curve (AUC) and relative sensitivity and specificity of preoperative ESR in predicting overall survival. From this curve, cut-offs for low risk (0.0-20.0 mm/hr), intermediate risk (20.1-50.0 mm/hr), and high risk (> 50.0 mm/hr) groups were created. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to assess the univariate impact of these ESR-based risk groups on overall survival. Finally, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to assess the potential of these groups to predict overall survival, adjusting for other patient and tumor characteristics. Results: 55.2%, 27.0% and 17.8% were in the low, intermediate, and high risk groups, respectively. Median (95% CI) survivals for these groups were 44.1 (42.6-45.5), 35.5 (32.3-38.8), and 32.1 (25.5-38.6) months, respectively. After controlling for patient age, race, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index, T-Stage, Fuhrman Nuclear grade, and tumor size, intermediate risk and high risk groups experienced a 4.5-fold (HR: 4.509, 95% CI: 0.735-27.649) and 18.5-fold (HR: 18.531, 95% CI: 2.117-162.228) increased risk of overall mortality, respectively. Conclusions: Preoperative ESR values represent a robust categorical predictor of overall survival following nephrectomy in localized renal cell carcinoma in this cohort. Clinicians may consider including ESR measurements in counseling patients before nephrectomy, as well as managing patients according to their ESR-based risk category. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

A Novel Risk Classification Model Predicts Overall Survival and Locoregional Surgery Benefit in Colorectal Patients with Distant Metastasis at the Initial Diagnosis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo Chen ◽  
Tian-en Li ◽  
Pei-zhun Du ◽  
Junjie Pan ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Distant Metastasis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Intermediate Risk

Abstract Background and aims: In this research, we aimed to construct a risk classification model to predict overall survival (OS) and locoregional surgery benefit in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with distant metastasis.Methods: We selected a cohort consisting of 12741 CRC patients diagnosed with distant metastasis between 2010 and 2014, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly assigned into training group and validation group at the ratio of 2:1. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to screen independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed and assessed by the Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. A novel risk classification model was further established based on the nomogram.Results: Ultimately 12 independent risk factors including race, age, marriage, tumor site, tumor size, grade, T stage, N stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis and liver metastasis were identified and adopted in the nomogram. The C-indexes of training and validation groups were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.81) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78), respectively. The risk classification model stratified patients into three risk groups (low-, intermediate- and high-risk) with divergent median OS (low-risk: 36.0 months, 95% CI 34.1-37.9; intermediate-risk: 18.0 months, 95% CI 17.4-18.6; high-risk: 6.0 months, 95% CI 5.3-6.7). Locoregional therapies including surgery and radiotherapy could prognostically benefit patients in the low-risk group (surgery: hazard ratio [HR] 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.71; radiotherapy: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.98) and intermediate risk group (surgery: HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.54-0.68; radiotherapy: HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.95), but not in the high-risk group (surgery: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82-1.29; radiotherapy: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.81-1.31). And all risk groups could benefit from systemic therapy (low-risk: HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.80; intermediate-risk: HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.47-0.54; high-risk: HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.53).Conclusion: A novel risk classification model predicting prognosis and locoregional surgery benefit of CRC patients with distant metastasis was established and validated. This predictive model could be further utilized by physicians and be of great significance for medical practice.

Prognostic Indices in Older DLBCL Patients Receiving R-CHOP: An Analysis of the U.S. Intergroup Study (E4494, CALGB 9793).

Blood ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 108 (11) ◽  
pp. 813-813
Author(s):  
R.H. Advani ◽  
H. Chen ◽  
T.M. Habermann ◽  
V.A. Morrison ◽  
E. Weller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Prognostic Tool ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Background: We reported that addition of rituximab (R) to chemotherapy significantly improves outcome in DLBCL patients (pt) &gt;60 years (JCO24:3121–27, 2006). Although the IPI is a robust clinical prognostic tool in DLBCL, Sehn et al (ASH 2005: abstract 492) reported that a revised (R) IPI more accurately predicted outcome in pt treated with rituximab-chemotherapy. Methods: We evaluated outcomes of the Intergroup study with respect to the standard IPI, R-IPI, age-adjusted (aa) IPI for evaluable pt treated with R-CHOP alone or with maintenance rituximab. We further assessed a modified IPI (mIPI) using age ≥ 70 y as a cutoff rather than age 60 y. Results: The 267 pt in this analysis were followed for a median of 4 y. Pt characteristics were: age &gt; 70 (48%) (median=69), male 52%, stage III/IV 75%, &gt;1 EN site 30%, LDH elevated 60%, PS ≥2 15%. On univariate analysis all of these characteristics were significant for 3 y failure-free survival (FFS) and overall survival (OS). The IPI provided additional discrimination of risk compared to the R-IPI with significant differences in FFS and OS for 3 vs 4–5 factors. The aa-IPI defined relatively few pt as low or high risk. The impact of age was studied using a cut-off of 70 years in a modified IPI, yielding 4 risk groups as shown below. Conclusions: For pt ≥ 60 treated with rituximab-chemotherapy the distinction between 3 vs 4,5 factors in the IPI was significant.The IPI also provided additional discrimination of risk compared to the R-IPI. In this older group of pt, use of an age cutoff ≥70 y placed more patients in the low risk category. It is of interest to apply the mIPI in other datasets with DLBCL pt &gt;60 y. Group # Factors # Pt % 3y FFS* % 3y OS* *All risk groups significantly different; logrank p &lt; 0.001 **95 % CI: FFS (0.46,0.66), OS (0.58,0.78) ***95 % CI: FFS (0.21,0.45), OS (0.31,0.55) L: Low, LI: Low Intermediate, HI: High Intermediate, H; High IPI L 0–1 12 78 83 LI 2 28 70 80 HI 3 33 56** 68** H 4–5 37 33*** 43*** R-IPI Very Good 0 0 - - Good 1–2 40 72 81 Poor 3–5 60 46 57 aa-IPI L 0 12 78 83 LI 1 35 68 78 HI 2 44 47 59 H 3 9 31 35 mIPI (age ≥ 70) L 0–1 27 77 86 LI 2 28 62 74 HI 3 29 47 58 H 4–5 16 28 36

Abstract 16337: A Risk Score That Predicts Recurrence of Neurally Mediated Syncope Using Electrocardiographic and Vectorcardiographic Parameters

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Calina-Patricia Tentea ◽  
Roxana Chiorescu ◽  
Sorin Crisan ◽  
Sorin Pop ◽  
Jeremy N Ruskin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Frontal Plane ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Neurally Mediated Syncope

Introduction: We have previously demonstrated that isolated very low QRS voltage (VLV defined as ≤0.3mV) in the frontal leads on the electrocardiogram (ECG; Figure A), as well as flat QRS loops in the frontal plane on ECG-derived vectorcardiograms (VCG; Figure B) predict recurrence of neurally mediated syncope (NMS). This phenomenon is possibly related to a specific ventricular geometry and activation pattern. Hypothesis: The aim of this study was to attempt to incorporate these novel ECG and VCG risk factors for recurrence of syncope into a prognostic risk score. Methods: We included 215 patients (age 48±20years), with NMS and a median of 3 syncopal episodes. The patients were followed for a median of 10 months (IQR 4-20). To weigh the relative importance of the prognostic risk factors identified in multivariate Cox regression analysis we attributed a score of 1 point for HR 1.5-1.99, 2 points for HR 2.0-2.49, and 3 points for HR ≥ 2.5. The total risk score, was divided into three categories: low risk (0-2), intermediate risk (3-5) and high risk (≥6). Results: The multivariate analysis identified history of ≥ 2 syncopal events (HR 3.85, 95%CI 1.62-9.14), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter of < 39mm by echocardiography (HR 1.94, 95%CI 1.00-3.82), isolated VLV QRS in frontal leads (HR 2.60, 95%CI 1.37-4.86) and flat QRS VCG loops in frontal plane (HR 2.23, 95%CI 1.24-3.99) as independent predictors for NMS recurrence (all P < 0.05). The actuarial total syncope recurrence rate at 1 year was 54.6% (95%CI 38.2-72.6) in the high-risk score category, 25.3% (95%CI 16.8-37.1) in the intermediate risk category, and 6.2% (95%CI 2.2-16.2) in the low-risk category (log rank test P<0.0001; Figure C). The ROC curve showed an AUC of 0.77 for the predictive value of the total risk score. Conclusions: The risk of recurrence of NMS could be stratified using a risk score that incorporates novel ECG and VCG parameters in addition to more established clinical and echocardiographic variables.

scholarly journals Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Ruotao Xiao ◽  
Cheng Liu ◽  
Wei He ◽  
Lulin Ma
Keyword(s):  
Renal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Poor Prognosis ◽  
Collecting Duct ◽  
Tumor Grade ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
N Stage

Background. Collecting duct renal cell carcinoma (CDRCC) is a rare type of renal cancer characterized by a poor prognosis. The aim of this work was to develop a nomogram predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with CDRCC. Methods. A total of 324 eligible patients diagnosed with CDRCC from 2004 to 2015 were identified using the data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS of these patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with OS and CSS. The nomogram was developed based on these factors and evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves using the bootstrap resample method. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was also compared with the manual of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC). Results. The estimated 1-, -3, and 5-year OS and CSS rates in the analytic cohorts were 56.4% and 60%, 32.5% and 37.3%, and 28.7% and 33.6%, respectively. The multivariate model revealed that age, tumor size, tumor grade, N stage, M stage, surgical type, and chemotherapy were independent predicted factors for OS, while tumor size, tumor grade, N stage, M stage, surgical type, and chemotherapy were independently linked to CSS. A nomogram was developed using these factors with relatively good discrimination and calibration. The C-index for OS and CSS was 0.764 (95% CI: 0.735~0.793) and 0.783 (95% CI: 0.754~0.812), which was superior to the AJCC stage (C-index: 0.685 (95% CI: 0.654~0.716) and 0.703 (95% CI: 0.672~0.734)). Patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups according to the total points calculated by the nomogram. Patients in the low-risk group (97 mo and not reached) experienced significantly long median OS and CSS compared to the intermediate-risk (17 mo and 18 mo) and high-risk groups (5 mo for both). The calibration curves showed a good agreement between the predicted and actual probability related to OS and CSS. Conclusion. CDRCC has an aggressively biologic behavior with relatively poor prognosis. A survival prediction nomogram making an individualized evaluation of OS and CSS in patients with CDRCC was presented, potentially helping urologists to make a better risk stratification.

scholarly journals Academic Centers Are Associated with Improved Survival Outcomes in High Risk Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma Patients

Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4747-4747
Author(s):  
Daniel A. Ermann ◽  
Victoria Vardell Noble ◽  
Avyakta Kallam ◽  
James O. Armitage
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Median Survival ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
B Cell Lymphoma ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Survival Outcomes ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Hazard Ratios

Abstract Background: Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and is characterized as a heterogenous disease associated with varying outcomes. The International Prognostic Index (IPI) has been the standard for baseline prognostic assessment in these patients. In this study we aimed to determine the impact of treatment facility (academic versus non-academic centers) on overall survival outcomes in DLBCL patients stratified by IPI score risk groups, with a focus on high risk disease as this is associated with poorer outcomes. Methods: The 2018 National Cancer Database (NCDB) was utilized for patients diagnosed with DLBCL between 2004-2015. Patients were then stratified based on IPI risk score from low to high risk. Four risk groups were formed: low (0-1), low-intermediate (2), high-intermediate (3), and high (4-5). Overall survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meyer analysis with bivariate cox proportional hazard ratios to compare survival by facility type (academic or community centers) within these risk groups. Results: A total of 160,137 patients were identified. Of these cases 31.8% were classified as low risk, 21.9% were low-intermediate risk, 22.2% were high-intermediate risk, and 24% were high risk. 59.3% of patients were treated at a community center and 40.7% were treated at academic centers. Treatment at academic centers was associated with a significantly improved overall survival (OS) for each risk category. Median survival (in months) for high risk IPI score DLBCL was 47.9 months in community and 61.1 months in academic centers (p<.0001). Median survival for high-intermediate risk score was 48.3 months in community and 87.3 months in academic centers (p<.0001). Median survival for low-intermediate score was 90.3 months in community and 122.8 months in academic centers (p<.0001). Median survival for low risk score was 132 months in community and 148 months in academic centers (p<.0001). Hazard ratios for academic center versus community center for high risk, high-intermediate, low-intermediate and low risk are 0.768, 0.71, 0.848 and 0.818 respectively (p<.0001). Conclusions: Facility type is significantly associated with improved survival outcomes across all IPI based risk groups for DLBCL. This benefit is especially significant in higher risk disease where positive outcomes are less common, suggesting treatment at academic centers may be particularly beneficial in these patients. Some of the possible reasons for this difference may include provider experience, increased access to resources, and opportunity for clinical trials. Further investigations into the factors contributing to such disparities should be done to help standardize care and improve outcomes. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

scholarly journals Chinese External Validation of the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group Prognostic Index for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patients

Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 5280-5280
Author(s):  
Shu Chao Qin ◽  
Wei Xu ◽  
Yi Xia ◽  
Chun Qiao ◽  
Lei Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prognostic Index ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Clinical Staging ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Haematological Malignancies ◽  
Risk Scoring ◽  
Very High

Abstract Objection: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a chronic lymphoproliferative disease characterized by highly clinical and biological heterogeneity. A number of biomarkers have been identified in predicting the overall survival (OS) over the last decades besides the traditional clinical staging. Recently, an international prognostic index (IPI) combing clinical staging and biomarkers was developed by the investigators of the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group. Due to genetic differences between Caucasic and Chinese CLL patients, our study was to validate the guiding function of IPI on Chinese CLL cases. Method: We performed a validation of the IPI proposed by the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group to stratify Chinese CLL patients prognostically in 225 CLL cases registered at our center. The five parameters (age, TP53 abnormalities, IGHV mutation status, b2-microglobulin and Binet stage) involved in the IPI were collected by clinical data, serum test, PCR and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Chi-square test, survival analysis, log-rank test and cox hazard regression analysis were utilized in the validation. Result: In the 225 Chinese CLL cases analysed in the validation, all five parameters involved in the IPI were associated with overall survival (OS) independently. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that age above 65 years old (HR 2.22; [1.15-4.30]; P=0.018), b2-microglobulin over 3.5 mg/L (HR 2.46; [1.22-4.94]; P=0.001), Binet staging B/C (HR 3.40; [1.02-11.33]; P=0.046), TP53 abnormalities (HR 2.72; [1.50-4.94]; P=0.012) and IGHV unmutation (HR 5.19; [2.51-10.77]; P<0.001) were OS related risk factors respectively. Then a total point score was calculated for each patient according to the grading system proposed by the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group investigators. There were 60 (26.7%) patients at low-risk (scoring 0-1), 57 (25.3%) patients at intermediate-risk (scoring 2-3), 65(28.9%) patients at high-risk (scoring 4-6) and 43 (19.1%) patients at very high-risk (scoring 7-10). The IPI allowed different prediction of time to treatment (TTT) in all groups (Fig. 1). The estimated median TTT were: 102 months for low-risk, 12 months for intermediate-risk and 1 month for high-risk group. However, the low-risk and intermediate-risk groups showed similar overall survival (P=0.424). Beyond that, significant difference was found between the intermediate, high and very high-risk groups. We combined the low-risk and the intermediate-risk groups into one to accommodate to the Chinese CLL cases. 117 (52%) patients were at low & intermediate-risk (scoring 0-3), thus leading to the significantly different prognostic value between groups (Fig. 1) . The estimated median survival times were: not reached for low&intermediate-risk, 63 months for high-risk and 128 months for very high-risk group. Conclusion: Our results basically validated the IPI proposed by the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group to prognostically stratify CLL patients in China, which confirmed the value of the novel prognostic index externally. However, a slight adaption was made to accommodate the Chinese cases better via the combination of the low-risk and intermediate-risk groups. We considered that a universally recognized prognostic model would be utilized to predict the disease progression and guide the treatment when initially diagnosed. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

scholarly journals Recurrence risk stratification based on a competing-risks nomogram to identify patients with esophageal cancer who may benefit from postoperative radiotherapy

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 175883592110619
Author(s):  
Xiao Chang ◽  
Junqiang Chen ◽  
Wencheng Zhang ◽  
Jinsong Yang ◽  
Shufei Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Competing Risks ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Postoperative Radiotherapy ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Background: A reliable model is needed to estimate the risk of postoperative recurrence and the benefits of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) in patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell cancer (TESCC). Methods: The study retrospectively reviewed 3652 TESCC patients in stage IB-IVA after radical esophagectomy, with or without PORT. In one institution as the training cohort ( n = 1620), independent risk factors associated with locoregional recurrence (LRR), identified by the competing-risks regression, were used to establish a predicting nomogram, which was validated in an external cohort ( n = 1048). Area under curve (AUC) values of receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to evaluate discrimination. Risk stratification was conducted using a decision tree analysis based on the cumulative point score of the LRR nomogram. After balancing the baseline of characteristics between treatment groups by inverse probability of treatment weighting, the effect of PORT was evaluated in each risk group. Results: Sex, age, tumor location, tumor grade, and N category were identified as independent risk factors for LRR and added into the nomogram. The AUC values were 0.638 and 0.706 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Three risk groups were established. For patients in the intermediate- and high-risk groups, PORT significantly improved the 5-year overall survival by 10.2% and 9.4%, respectively ( p < 0.05). Although PORT was significantly associated with reduced LRR in the low-risk group, overall survival was not improved. Conclusion: The nomogram can effectively estimate the individual risk of LRR, and patients in the intermediate- and high-risk groups are highly recommended to undergo PORT.

Identification of Eight Surface Molecules with Survival Predictive Power in B Cell Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (B-CLL): A Proposal for a Scoring System.

Blood ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 104 (11) ◽  
pp. 2797-2797
Author(s):  
Valter Gattei ◽  
Paolo Sonego ◽  
Stefania Russo ◽  
Riccardo Bomben ◽  
Michele Dal Bo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Surface Molecules

Abstract Studies of gene expression profiling of B-CLL cells revealed a phenotype related to experienced B cells, although only a subset of B-CLLs has IgVH mutations. With the aim to identify the immunophenotypic profile associated with a different prognosis, we investigated by flow cytometry the expression of 36 surface molecules (cell-adhesion molecules, integrins, complement activity regulators, myeloid, T and B markers) in 125 B-CLLs, all characterized for IgVH mutations and survival. To recognize the surface molecules with survival predictive power, univariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis was applied to antigen expression values with overall survival as dependent variable. Once identified the antigens whose expression correlated with a z score of ±2.5 (P&lt;0.005) or greater, the maximally selected log-rank statistics were applied to define the optimal cut-off values yielding the best separation of two subgroups with different survival. According to this approach, the following eight antigens were selected (cut-off values in parenthesis): CD55 (30%), CD62L (30%), CD49c (40%), CD11c (20%), CD54 (50%), CD25 (15%), CD79b (65%), CD38 (30%). The first six antigens had negative z score and therefore were identified as favorable prognosticators, while CD79b and CD38 had positive z score, hence were associated with shorter overall survival (negative prognosticators). To build-up a scoring system, we assigned score “1” to each positive prognosticator when its expression was above the designated cut-off (score “0” if below), and score “0” to each negative prognosticator when its expression was above the cut-off (score “1” if below). A total score ranging from 0 to 8 points was therefore obtained in 102/125 cases in which the expression of all the eight markers was available. Three risk groups were identified: i) high-risk (29 cases), score 0–3; ii) intermediate-risk (38 cases), score 4–6; iii) low-risk (35 cases), score 7–8. These three groups differed greatly for survival probabilities (p=5x10–13 by the log-rank test). All patients belonging to the low-risk group were alive throughout the follow-up duration, whereas mean survivals for intermediate- and high-risk groups were 173 months (p=0.032) and 61 months (p=2.0x10–9), respectively. Several relationship between risk groups and other variables was studied: i) patients included in high- and intermediate-risk groups had the same male to female (M:F) ratio (1.4), while the M:F ratio of patients included in low-risk group (group 3) was lower (0.7); ii) Rai’s stage distribution was comparable in the three groups, with the exception of stage “0”, which was significantly less frequent in the high-risk group (p=0.04); iii) if % IgVH mutations (2% cut-off) was checked, mutated to unmutated (M:UM) ratios were 4.8, 2.6 and 0.8 in low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively (p=0.006); iv) as compared to high-risk group, low- and intermediate-risk groups were characterized by a higher number of B-CLL cases with a IgVH mutational status consistent with antigen-driven selection (20/24 and 17/26 vs. 7/13). In conclusion, the present study introduces a novel predictive tool based on the expression of eight surface molecules, easily investigable, which can stratifies populations of B-CLL patients in three distinct risk categories.

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