scholarly journals Proposals to Restructure Social Security

1996 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 67-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A Diamond
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Retirement Savings ◽  
Partial Privatization ◽  
Trust Funds

This paper discusses five proposed changes in Social Security: indexing the normal retirement age to life expectancy (as Sweden is doing); investing part of the trust funds in private securities; partial privatization (as has been proposed by Senators Kerrey and Simpson, Sweden is doing and Mexico has done); replacing Social Security by individually mandated savings (as was done in Chile in 1981); and mandating employer provided retirement savings (as recently legislated in Australia and is effectively the case in some European countries.) The economics of Social Security and the politics of restoring (and preserving) actuarial balance are discussed.

On the management of retirement age indexed to life expectancy: a scenario analysis of the Italian longevity experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-231
Author(s):  
Mariarosaria Coppola ◽  
Maria Russolillo ◽  
Rosaria Simone
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Security System ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Model Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mortality Projection ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to measure the financial impact on social security system of a recently proposed indexation mechanism for retirement age by considering the Italian longevity experience. The analysis is motivated by the progressive increase in life expectancy at advanced age, which is rapidly bringing to the fore noticeable socio-economic consequences in most industrialized countries. Among those, the impact on National Social Security systems is particularly relevant if people live longer than expected; this will lead to greater financial exposure for pension providers. Design/methodology/approach Referring to the Italian population for illustrative purposes, the authors contemplate different scenarios for mortality projection methods and for the implementation of pension age shift while accounting for gender and cohort gaps and model risk. Synthetic indicators to measure the impact of the indexation mechanism on social security system are introduced on the basis of pension cash flows. Findings An indexation policy that manages gender gap while adjusting retirement age for varying life expectancy is proposed. As a result, sustainability of public retirement expenditure is improved. Originality/value The paper is a concise scenario analysis of the reduction of costs and risks that pension providers would have if the system resorted to link retirement age to life expectancy. The ideas fostered by the paper follow a recent proposal of the Authors on a flexible retirement scheme that deals with model risk for mortality projection and accounts for gender gap in mortality rates.

Socio-Economic Inequalities in Life Expectancy and Health Expectancy at Age 50 and over in European Countries.

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Mosquera ◽  
Yolanda González-Rábago ◽  
Unai Martín ◽  
Amaia Bacigalupe
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Good Health ◽  
Socioeconomic Inequalities ◽  
Systematic Search ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Health Expectancy ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Demographic Ageing

Abstract Based on the demographic ageing, many European governments have modified the statutory retirement age. However, in general, life expectancy (LE) and health expectancy (HE) are not uniformly distributed, being both lower among the least advantaged groups. Thus, a systematic search and review of the literature has been conducted to identify socioeconomic inequalities in LE and HE at age 50 and over in European countries. Twenty-nine studies were included in the review. Across Europe, people in a more advantaged position can expect to live longer, more years in good health and less in bad health, and therefore a lower percentage of their lives in bad health. Zusammenfassung: Sozioökonomische Ungleichheiten in der Lebens- und Gesundheitserwartung im Alter von 50 und älter in Europäischen Ländern. Erkenntnisse für die Debatte der Rentenpolitik Vor dem Hintergrund der demographischen Alterung haben viele europäische Regierungen das Renteneintrittsalter modifiziert. Allerdings sind Lebensund Gesundheitserwartungen nicht gleichmäßig verteilt, sondern sind in benachteiligten Bevölkerungsgruppen niedriger. Um sozioökonomische Ungleichheiten in der Lebens- und Gesundheitserwartung von Individuen im Alter von 50 Jahren und älter zu betrachten, wurde eine systematische Suche und Begutachtung der Literatur in den europäischen Ländern durchgeführt. Es wurden 29 Studien in der Begutachtung miteinbezogen. Es zeigt sich, dass Individuen in vorteilhaften Positionen erwarten können länger zu leben, länger gesund zu sein und weniger häufig einen schlechten Gesundheitszustand aufweisen, was der Grund dafür ist, dass sie auch einen geringeren Anteil ihrer Lebenszeit in schlechter Gesundheit verbringen.

scholarly journals The Countermeasures Assessment Towards Retirement Basic Savings Estimation Through the Mathematical Research

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S3) ◽  
pp. 406-409
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Retirement Savings ◽  
Mathematical Research ◽  
Entire Life ◽  
The Government ◽  
Retirement Funds ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Ideal

This paper focuses on the issues of ageing population which contributes towards inadequacy of retirement savings among Malaysian private sector workforce who mainly depends on Employee Provident Funds (EPF) to sustain their life during retirement age. However, the savings in the EPF fund cannot facilitate their expenditures for their entire life following the projected life expectancy of the age 75 years old, even most of retirees had spent all their retirement funds just within 3 to 5 years’ period after reaching the age of retirement. The study attempted to look at the ideal basic savings by measuring the sustainability of the proposed amount to cover the expenditure costs during retirement age. However, the study found that the ideal basic savings amounted RM228,000 can only extended the financial coverage to the retirees up to the projected life expectancy if only if they are disciplined to make a periodical withdrawal of RM950 per month based of minimum monthly pension rate. However, the basic savings just only developed by considering the minimum monthly pension rate amounted RM950 and ignored the impact of inflation and profit gains through accumulative retirement funds in calculating the ideal basic savings. Thus, it would be better if the government and the related authorities have come up with the new basic savings by including those additional elements. It is important to gain a better idea towards the basic savings, which becomes the guideline for the prospect retirees in Malaysia.

scholarly journals An Indexation Mechanism for Retirement Age: Analysis of the Gender Gap

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Mariarosaria Coppola ◽  
Maria Russolillo ◽  
Rosaria Simone
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Social Security Systems ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
Averaged Model

The management of National Social Security Systems is being challenged more and more by the rapid ageing of the population, especially in the industrialized countries. In order to chase the Pension System sustainability, several countries in Europe are setting up pension reforms linking the retirement age and/or benefits to life expectancy. In this context, the accurate modelling and projection of mortality rates and life expectancy play a central role and represent issues of great interest in recent literature. Our study refers to the Italian mortality experience and considers an indexing mechanism based on the expected residual life to adjust the retirement age and keep costs at an expected budgeted level, in the spirit of sharing the longevity risk between Social Security Systems and retirees. In order to combine fitting and projections performances of selected stochastic mortality models, a model assembling technique is applied to face uncertainty in model selection, while accounting for uncertainty of estimation as well. The resulting proposal is an averaged model that is suitable to discuss about the gender gap in longevity risk and its alleged narrowing over time.

scholarly journals The financial feasibility of delaying Social Security: evidence from administrative tax data

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 419-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
GOPI SHAH GODA ◽  
SHANTHI RAMNATH ◽  
JOHN B. SHOVEN ◽  
SITA NATARAJ SLAVOV
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Retirement Savings ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Individual Retirement Accounts ◽  
Savings Accounts ◽  
Retirement Accounts ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Retirement Study

AbstractDespite the large and growing returns to deferring Social Security benefits, most individuals claim Social Security before the full retirement age. In this paper, we use a panel of administrative tax data on individuals likely to financially benefit from delaying Social Security claiming to explore the relationship between Social Security claiming and distributions from tax-advantaged retirement savings accounts. We find that the majority of our sample claim Social Security prior to taking distributions from Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). We also find that a third of our sample have IRA balances equivalent to at least two additional years of Social Security benefits, and a quarter have IRA balances equivalent to at least 4 years of Social Security benefits. We complement our analysis with data from the Health and Retirement Study and find that these percentages are considerably higher when other financial assets are taken into account.

scholarly journals Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy

Genus ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Ginebri ◽  
Carlo Lallo
Keyword(s):  
High Education ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Education Level ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Composition Effect ◽  
Education Group ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Mortality Differential ◽  
Education Groups

AbstractWe developed an innovative method to break down official population forecasts by educational level. The mortality rates of the high education group and low education group were projected using an iterative procedure, whose starting point was the life tables by education level for Italy, based on the year 2012. We provide a set of different scenarios on the convergence/divergence of the mortality differential between the high and low education groups. In each scenario, the demographic size and the life expectancy of the two sub-groups were projected annually over the period 2018–2065. We compared the life expectancy paths in the whole population and in the sub-groups. We found that in all of our projections, population life expectancy converges to the life expectancy of the high education group. We call this feature of our outcomes the “composition effect”, and we show how highly persistent it is, even in scenarios where the mortality differential between social groups is assumed to decrease over time. In a midway scenario, where the mortality differential is assumed to follow an intermediate path between complete disappearance in year 2065 and stability at the 2012 level, and in all the scenarios with a milder convergence hypothesis, our “composition effect” prevails over the effect of convergence for men and women. For instance, assuming stability in the mortality differential, we estimated a life expectancy increase at age 65 of 2.9 and 2.6 years for men, and 3.2 and 3.1 for women, in the low and high education groups, respectively, over the whole projection period. Over the same period, Italian official projections estimate an increase of 3.7 years in life expectancy at age 65 for the whole population. Our results have relevant implications for retirement and ageing policies, in particular for those European countries that have linked statutory retirement age to variations in population life expectancies. In all the scenarios where the composition effect is not offset by a strong convergence of mortality differentials, we show that the statutory retirement age increases faster than the group-specific life expectancies, and this finding implies that the expected time spent in retirement will shrink for the whole population. This potential future outcome seems to be an unintended consequence of the indexation rule.

scholarly journals The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214770
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Richardson ◽  
Martin Taulbut ◽  
Mark Robinson ◽  
Andrew Pulford ◽  
Gerry McCartney
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Tax Credits ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Group Sex ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Welfare Reforms ◽  
Detrimental Impact

BackgroundLife expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare ‘reforms’ have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland.MethodsWe applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms.ResultsWe estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (−20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (−23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males.InterpretationThis study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.

scholarly journals Contribution of avoidable causes of death to premature mortality in Poland and selected European countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Wojtyniak ◽  
Jakub Stokwiszewski
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Central European ◽  
The Difference

Our study, availing the new, agreed by the OECD and Eurostat, lists of preventable and treatable causes of death, seeks to quantify the contribution of avoidable causes to premature mortality and its dynamics in Poland and Central European countries – Czechia, Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia, in comparison with Sweden serving as a benchmark country in 1999–2017. We calculated age standardised death rates for the broad groups of avoidable causes and more specific ones, which comprised preventable and treatable cancer and diseases of the circulatory system (DCS), preventable injuries and alcohol-related diseases. Deaths from not avoidable causes were also analysed. The analysis of time trends in the death rates and calculation of the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) for the overall trend were performed with joint-point models. The contribution of changes in mortality from avoidable causes to increase life expectancy during 1999–2017 and contribution of the difference in mortality from these causes to the difference in life expectancy between five countries and Sweden were based on the decomposition of temporary life expectancy between birth and age 75 [e(0-75)]. For the calculation of life expectancy, we used the classic Chiang method and the decomposition of life expectancy by the death causes and age was conducted with the Arriaga method. The AAPC of death rates from avoidable causes in 1999–2017 was similar in all the countries but Lithuania, where the decline started later. The decline in the death rates from not avoidable causes is much slower than the rates from avoidable causes. Mortality from treatable causes was decreasing faster than from preventable causes in most populations. In 1999–2017, the average rate of mortality decline for preventable cancer was greater among men than among women, while for treatable cancer the sex-related differences were much smaller and in favour of women. As for preventable and treatable death from DCS, their decrease was faster among women than men in all the countries but Sweden. Improvements in mortality from causes that could be avoided through prevention or treatment made substantial positive contributions to the overall change in life expectancy in all the countries. The differences in temporary life expectancy e(0-75) between the analysed Central European countries and Sweden were much smaller in 2017 than in 1999, due to the reduction of the gap in mortality from avoidable causes. Our results show that among men, and to a lesser extent among women, mortality from preventable causes contributes more than mortality from causes that can be effectively treated to shorter life expectancy in the countries of Central Europe than in Sweden. This indicates that in reducing the health gap between the inhabitants of Central Europe and Western Europe, the healthcare system should consider disease prevention even to a greater extent than just treating them.

scholarly journals Health Status of Old Age Population in Bulgaria

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Mariana Mourgova
Keyword(s):  
Health Status ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Healthy Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Healthy Life ◽  
Healthy Life Years ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Different Levels

This article examines the health status of the population in Bulgaria at age 65 by gender during the period 2006-2014. The health status is examined by some of the most frequently used demographic indicators, namely life expectancy, based on mortality data and healthy life years and healthy life expectancy, based on mortality, life expectancy and self-perceived health. The main results show that despite of the observed increase in life expectancy at age 65 in Bulgaria during the period it is the lowest compared to other European countries. The share for both men and women reported their health status as without limitations in respect to daily activities decline, while those reported their health status as good increase. These contradictory facts reflect on the measures of health status. Thus, the trend in healthy life years for both sexes decline over the period, whereas the trend in healthy life expectancy increases. Compared with the other European countries, the expected number of years without limitations in Bulgaria is among the largest, while the healthy life expectancy is the lowest. These differences could be explained by the different levels in mortality and the nature of the measures of health status themselves.

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